Air Temperatures – The following high temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Thursday…along with the low temperatures Thursday:

82 – 69  Lihue, Kauai
84 – 66  Honolulu, Oahu
83 – 68  Kahului AP, Maui
83 – 70  Kona Int’l AP
78 – 63  Hilo AP, Hawaii

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (in inches) for each of the islands as of Thursday evening:

0.06  Anahola, Kauai
0.10  Palisades, Oahu
 0.01  Molokai
0.00  Lanai
0.00  Kahoolawe
0.00  Maui
0.05  Hilo AP, Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph) as of Thursday evening:

24  Port Allen, Kauai
27  Oahu Forest NWR, Oahu
25  Molokai
22  Lanai
33  Kahoolawe
25  Kahului AP, Maui
25  South Point, Big Island

Here’s a wind profile of the Pacific Ocean – Closer view of the islands / Here’s the vog forecast animation

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live webcam on the summit of our tallest mountain Mauna Kea (nearly 13,800 feet high) on the Big Island of Hawaii. This webcam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands, and at night whenever there’s a big moon shining down. Also, at night you will be able to see the stars — and the sunrise and sunset too — depending upon weather conditions.


Aloha Paragraphs

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Storm low pressure systems are spinning far north of the islands, while a high pressure system is located northeast…keeping a trade wind weather pattern over us

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A cold front is approaching the islands to the northwest…with thunderstorms south-southwest

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Stable low clouds being carried our way on the trade winds…banking up against the windward sides locally

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Just a few showers over  windward areas and offshore – Looping radar image


Small Craft Advisory…for large northwest swells


High Surf Warning…west shore of the Big Island


High Surf Advisory…north and west shores of Kauai, Oahu, Molokai, and north shore of Maui


Special Weather Statement…very windy all islands this weekend


Gale Watch…Saturday afternoon through Sunday afternoon /portions of Maui County and Big Island coastal waters


>>> A cold front will approach the state from the northwest today and this evening, then move down the island chain late tonight and Saturday, while a strong high pressure system passes north of the islands through the weekend. This combination will bring increasing winds to western and central parts of the state late tonight, and very windy conditions to all islands Saturday through Sunday.

The strongest northeast to east winds will be over higher terrain, through mountain gaps, and downslope of the mountains. Loose outdoor objects may become airborne under these strong winds. Prepare now by securing these objects before winds increase. The strong cross winds may bring hazardous driving conditions, especially for high profile vehicles.

If you have outdoor plans for the weekend, be prepared for very windy conditions. If your plans involve marine activities, you may want to consider postponing them.


~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~

 

Light to moderately strong trade winds, turning lighter Friday….then becoming locally very strong this weekend. Here’s the latest weather map, showing low pressure centers far to the north of Hawaii…with an associated approaching cold front northwest of the islands. Meanwhile, we find a high pressure system to the northeast of the islands, with an associated ridge north of Kauai. We’ll see active trade winds, although on a downward trend. The trades will drop off briefly Friday, before becoming blustery from the north, bringing cooler temperatures during the weekend. This will prompt possible wind advisories over parts of the islands…and gale warnings across a few channel waters. The winds will weaken early next week, although pick up again from the north in the wake of another possible cold front around mid-week.

Limited showers, mostly along the windward sides…increasing this weekend. Our atmosphere continues to be relatively stable and dry, with showers remaining generally light. The trade winds will bring a few windward showers at times locally…although not much rain is expected. Looking towards the weekend, we’ll see a frontal cloud band pushing down through the state, bringing a period of passing showers our way then. The forecast shows a major change Saturday, with blustery winds and passing showers into Sunday. The smaller islands will likely become drier in the wake of the frontal passage, although Maui and the Big Island may remain somewhat showery into early next week. The forecast calls for yet another cold front to approach the state by next Tuesday-Wednesday.

Marine environment details:  The west-northwest swell is expected to lower gradually into Friday. With the more westerly direction of this swell, high surf will also reach west facing shores of the Big Island. Another large northwest swell is expected to arrive Friday with advisory level surf. This swell will lower gradually over the weekend. A north-northeast swell is expected over the weekend behind a cold front moving across the area. The swell will gradually swing around to the east early next week. Advisory level surf is likely along north and east facing shores with this new swell. Another large northwest swell is expected for next Tuesday and Wednesday.

A Small Craft Advisory is presently posted for most Hawaiian coastal waters, mainly due to seas associated with the west-northwest swell. Winds around portions of the Big Island are also reaching Small Craft Advisory levels, though they are expected to drop off. Winds behind a cold front moving across the island chain this weekend will exceed advisory criteria…and could reach Gale Warning levels across some areas. Also, seas will remain rather high through the weekend and into early next week.

 

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Windy weather this weekend

 

World-wide tropical cyclone activity…with storms showing up when active


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>>> Atlantic Ocean: The 2016 hurricane season has ended

Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean

>>> Caribbean: The 2016 hurricane season has ended

>>> Gulf of Mexico: The 2016 hurricane season has ended

Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Eastern Pacific: The 2016 hurricane season has ended

Here’s the NOAA 2016 Hurricane Season Summary for the Eastern Pacific Basin

Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Central Pacific: The 2016 hurricane season has ended

Here’s the NOAA 2016 Hurricane Season Summary for the Central Pacific Basin

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

>>> Northwest Pacific Ocean: No active tropical cyclones

>>> South Pacific Ocean: No active tropical cyclones


>>> North and South Indian Oceans / Arabian Sea: No active tropical cyclones

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)


Interesting: Green Sahara’s Ancient Rainfall Regime Revealed by Scientists – Rainfall patterns in the Sahara during the 6,000-year “Green Sahara” period have been pinpointed by analyzing marine sediments, according to new research led by a UA geoscientist.

What is now the Sahara Desert was the home to hunter-gatherers who made their living off the animals and plants that lived in the region’s savannahs and wooded grasslands 5,000 to 11,000 years ago.

“It was 10 times as wet as today,” said lead author Jessica Tierney of the University of Arizona. Annual rainfall in the Sahara now ranges from about 4 inches to less than 1 inch (100 to 35 mm).

Although other research had already identified the existence of the Green Sahara period, Tierney and her colleagues are the first to compile a continuous record of the region’s rainfall going 25,000 years into the past.

The team’s paper, “Rainfall regimes of the Green Sahara,” was scheduled for publication in the journal Science Advances on Wednesday.

Archaeological evidence shows humans occupied much of the Sahara during the wet period, but left for about a thousand years around 8,000 years ago — the middle of the Green Sahara period.

Other investigators have suggested the Sahara became drier at the time people left, but the evidence was not conclusive, said Tierney, a UA associate professor of geosciences.

Her team’s continuous rainfall record shows a thousand-year period about 8,000 years ago when the Sahara became drier. That drier period coincides with when people left, she said.

“It looks like this thousand-year dry period caused people to leave,” Tierney said.

“What’s interesting is the people who came back after the dry period were different — most raised cattle. That dry period separates two different cultures. Our record provides a climate context for this change in occupation and lifestyle in the western Sahara.”

Tierney and her colleagues also used their rainfall record to suggest ways current climate models can better replicate the Sahara’s ancient climate and therefore improve projections of future climate.

Tierney’s co-authors are Francesco Pausata of Stockholm University in Sweden and Peter deMenocal of Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory in Palisades, New York. The David and Lucile Packard Foundation, the National Science Foundation and the Swedish Research Council funded the research.

Researchers had long known the Sahara was much greener in the past, but how much of the Sahara was wetter and how much wetter was not well understood, Tierney said. Although scientists can learn about past climate by examining ancient lake sediments, in the Sahara the lakes dried up long ago and their sediments have blown away.

Instead of lake sediments, Tierney and her colleagues used cores of marine sediments taken off the coast of West Africa at four different sites. Because the cores were taken over a north-south distance of about 800 miles (1,300 km) — from offshore Cape Ghir, Morocco, to the northwestern corner of Mauritania — the cores revealed both the ancient rainfall patterns and the areal extent of the Green Sahara.

In terrestrial plants, the chemical composition of a leaf’s wax changes depending on how dry or wet the climate was when the plant was growing. Leaf wax also washes into the ocean and can be preserved in the marine sediments that are laid down year after year.

“The waxes record the climate conditions on land,” Tierney said.

By analyzing the leaf wax from ancient marine sediments, the team determined the region’s past rainfall patterns and also gathered clues about what types of plants were growing.

The team also wanted to know whether the conditions on land interacted with the atmosphere to affect climate, because most of the current climate models don’t simulate the Green Sahara period well, she said.

The amount of solar radiation the Earth receives during the Northern Hemisphere summer depends on where the Earth’s “wobble,” known as precession, is in its 23,000-year cycle.

At the beginning of the Green Sahara, the Northern Hemisphere was closer to the sun during summer. Warmer summers strengthened the West African monsoon and delivered more rain. Toward the end of the Green Sahara, the Northern Hemisphere was farther from the sun and the West African monsoon was weaker.

There’s a feedback between vegetation, dust and rainfall, Tierney said. Right now the Sahara Desert is the planet’s biggest source of dust — but a vegetated Sahara would produce much less dust.

Co-author Francesco Pausata added additional factors — more vegetation and less dust — to a climate model. His changes improved how well the model replicated the amount of rainfall during the Green Sahara and dry periods.

“Getting a better handle on the important influence of the vegetation and dust feedback will help us simulate future climate change in the Sahara and Sahel,” Tierney said.