Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Wednesday along with the low temperatures Wednesday:
86 – 77 Lihue, Kauai
86 – 74 Honolulu, Oahu
88 – 75 Molokai AP
92 – 74 Kahului AP, Maui – tied the record high set in 1950
88 – 77 Kailua Kona
86 – 69 Hilo AP, Hawaii
Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (in inches) for each of the islands as of Wednesday evening:
0.03 Mount Waialeale, Kauai
0.20 Nui Valley, Oahu
0.04 Molokai
0.00 Lanai
0.00 Kahoolawe
0.11 West Wailuaiki, Maui
0.73 Saddle Quarry, Big Island
The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph) as of Wednesday evening:
30 Port Allen, Kauai
37 Oahu Forest NWR, Oahu
28 Molokai
27 Lanai
35 Kahoolawe
36 Maalaea Bay, Maui
27 Kealakomo, Big Island
Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live webcam on the summit of our tallest mountain Mauna Kea (nearly 13,800 feet high) on the Big Island of Hawaii. This webcam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands, and at night whenever there’s a big moon shining down. Also, at night you will be able to see the stars — and the sunrise and sunset too — depending upon weather conditions.
Aloha Paragraphs
Tropical Storm Ulika is spinning well east-southeast of the islands, with Tropical Depression Roslyn winding down offshore from Mexico
Tropical Storm Ulika is still over 1000 miles east-southeast from the islands
Close up view of TS Ulika
Looping satellite images of TS Ulika, with upper level wind shear now taking its toll of this weakening storm
What the computer models are showing for TS Ulika, which won’t bring wind to Hawaii, although it will likely bring showers later Sunday into early next week, as it passes just south…or near the Big Island
Clear to partly cloudy, locally cloudy, with showery clouds offshore to the east, which will bring increasing moisture our way into the night…mostly windward areas
Showers increasing mostly windward – Looping radar image
Small Craft Advisory…Maalaea Bay, Maui, Pailolo and Alenuihaha Channels, Big Island leeward and southeast waters
~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~
The trade winds will remain more or less moderately strong through the week. Here’s the latest weather map, showing a strong near 1037 millibar high pressure system far to our north, the source of our trade wind flow at the moment. Our trade winds will hold on or not, depending on just what happens with various weather features later this week. There continues to be some uncertainty in regards to the winds later this weekend into early next week.
Here’s a wind profile of the offshore waters around the islands – with a closer view
Here’s the Hawaiian Islands Sulfate Aerosol animated graphic, showing vog forecast
Windward showers will be fairly active into Thursday morning, with drier weather later in the day into Friday. Computer models remain rather insistent that a weather change will occur during the weekend into early next week, resulting in a potential increase in showers. This will be partially associated with what will very likely be retired tropical cyclone 19E (Ulika), currently located over 1000 miles east-southeast of the Big Island, as it moves closer to the islands later Sunday into early next week. There’s a chance that we’ll find locally heavy rains overlapping the state then, stay tuned.
Marine environment details: Trade winds will continue, which are associated with far high pressure north of the region. The highest winds and seas are forecast across the typically windier locations between Molokai and the Big Island each day. The small craft advisory for these locations will remain in place for these windier zones, and has been extended through Thursday.
The current small northerly swell will steadily ease through Thursday. A small northwest swell will become a possibility early next week, in response to a low pressure system tracking across the International Date Line Friday and Friday night. Otherwise, gusty trade winds will continue to generate choppy surf along east facing shores through much of the week.
Windward showers, then improving later Thursday into Friday
World-wide tropical cyclone activity…
>>> Atlantic Ocean:
Tropical Storm 14L (Matthew) remains active, located approximately 290 miles south of San Juan, Puerto Rico. Here’s the NHC graphical track map, a satellite image, and what the computer models are showing
Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean
>>> Caribbean: No active tropical cyclones
>>> Gulf of Mexico: No active tropical cyclones
Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico
Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)
>>> Eastern Pacific:
Post-Tropical Cyclone 18E (Roslyn) is dissipating, located approximately 360 miles west of the southern tip of Baja California. Here’s the NHC graphical track map, a satellite image – Last Advisory
Tropical Storm 19E (Ulika) remains active, located approximately 1030 miles east of Hilo, Hawaii.. Here’s the NHC graphical track map, a satellite image, and what the computer models are showing
1.) Cloudiness and showers extending several hundred miles off the southwestern coast of Mexico are associated with a trough of low pressure. Upper-level winds are expected to be marginally conducive for some development during the next several days while this system moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 mph away from the coast of Mexico. By late this weekend, this system is forecast to encounter cooler waters, making development unlikely.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent
Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.
Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)
>>> Central Pacific: No active tropical cyclones
Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)
Tropical Storm 21W (Chaba) remains active, located approximately 1011 NM southeast of Kadena AB. Here’s the JTWC graphical track map, a satellite image, and what the computer models are showing
>>> South Pacific Ocean: No active tropical cyclones
>>> North and South Indian Oceans / Arabian Sea: No active tropical cyclones
Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
Interesting: Earth ‘Locked Into’ Hitting Temperatures Not Seen in 2 Million Years: Study – Earth is the warmest it’s been in 100,000 years, a new reconstruction of historical temperature data finds, and with today’s level of fossil fuel emissions the planet is “locked into” eventually hitting its highest temperature mark in 2 million years.
The new research published Monday in Nature was done by Carolyn Snyder, now a climate policy official at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, as a part of her doctoral dissertation at Stanford University, according to the Associated Press.
Snyder “created a continuous 2 million year temperature record, much longer than a previous 22,000 year record. [Snyder’s reconstruction] doesn’t estimate temperature for a single year, but averages 5,000-year time periods going back a couple million years,” AP writes.
“We do find this close relationship between temperature and greenhouse gases that is remarkably stable, and what the study is developing is the coupling factor between the two,” Snyder told National Geographic.
AP further reports:
Temperatures averaged out over the most recent 5,000 years—which includes the last 125 years or so of industrial emissions of heat-trapping gases—are generally warmer than they have been since about 120,000 years ago or so, Snyder found. And two interglacial time periods, the one 120,000 years ago and another just about 2 million years ago, were the warmest Snyder tracked. They were about 3.6 degrees (2 degrees Celsius) warmer than the current 5,000-year average.
With the link to carbon dioxide levels and taking into account other factors and past trends, Snyder calculated how much warming can be expected in the future.
“Snyder said if climate factors are the same as in the past—and that’s a big if,” AP notes, “Earth is already committed to another 7 degrees or so (about 4 degrees Celsius) of warming over the next few thousand years.”
Nature described Snyder’s findings in greater detail in an article accompanying her published study: “Even if the amount of atmospheric CO2 were to stabilize at current levels, the study suggests that average temperatures may increase by roughly 5° C over the next few millennia as a result of the effects of the greenhouse gas on glaciers, ecosystems and other factors. A doubling of the pre-industrial levels of atmospheric CO2 of roughly 280 parts per million, which could occur within decades unless people curb greenhouse-gas emissions, could eventually boost global average temperatures by around 9° C.”
“This is not an exact prediction or a forecast,” Snyder told Nature, advising caution regarding her study’s temperature predictions. “The experiment we as humans are doing is very different than what we saw in the past.”
There has been some controversy in the scientific community following publication of Snyder’s research: several climate scientists told National Geographic that they felt Snyder’s estimate of future temperature rise, far higher than many previous estimates, was an outlier, signalling that her methods were faulty.
Michael Mann, an influential climate researcher at Penn State University who was not involved in Snyder’s research, told Mashable that “I regard the study as provocative and interesting, but the quantitative findings must be viewed rather skeptically until the analysis has been thoroughly vetted by the scientific community.”
Other scientists said they were intrigued by Snyder’s findings and hope her study leads to additional research. Jeremy Shakun, a climate researcher at Boston College, told AP that “Snyder’s work is a great contribution and future work should build on it.”
“It’s a useful starting place,” Snyder said to Nature about her research. “People can take this and improve upon it as more records become available in the future.”
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