Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Thursday…along with the low temperatures Thursday:

86 – 78  Lihue, Kauai
86 – 72  Honolulu, Oahu
86 – 74  Molokai AP
89 – 74  Kahului AP, Maui
88 – 74  Kona AP
85 – 70  Hilo AP, Hawaii

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (in inches) for each of the islands…Thursday evening:

0.66  Mount Waialeale, Kauai
1.18  Tunnel RG, Oahu
 0.38  Molokai
0.00  Lanai
0.05  Kahoolawe
1.05  West Wailuaiki, Maui
1.04  Saddle Quarry, Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph)…Thursday evening:

24  Port Allen, Kauai
23  Oahu Forest NWR, Oahu
23  Molokai
25  Lanai
32  Kahoolawe
 30  Maalaea Bay, Maui
28  Kealakomo, Big Island

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 13,800 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. This web cam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon shining down during the night at times. Plus, during the nights you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise and sunset too…depending upon weather conditions.


Aloha Paragraphs

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An early autumn cold front well to our north, in the mid-latitudes…with an elongated zone of low pressure well to our south 

 

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Thunderstorms southwest through southeast

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Clear to partly cloudy, high cirrus clouds just to our south…along with some towering cumulus clouds southeast of the Big Island

 

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Showers increasing locally…some will be rather generous –  Looping radar image



Flood Advisory…HALIIMAILE, PAUWELA, KIPAHULU, HUELO, NAHIKU, HAIKU-PAUWELA, PAIA, MAKAWAO, HANA, PUKALANI, KAUPO AND KAILUA

 

~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~

 

Trade winds prevail…easing up a touch Friday into the weekend. Here’s the latest weather map, showing a moderately strong high pressure system well to our northeast. At the same time, we have a low pressure trough over the state, moving westward. Our early autumn trade winds will continue, easing up a notch now into the weekend. As our winds veer somewhat south of east, they will carry an increase in humidity. This decrease in wind speeds will occur thanks to an early season cold front, which will swing by to our north over the next several days. As this frontal boundary moves away from the state…the trade winds will rebound back into the moderately strong range later Sunday into next week.

Here’s a wind profile…of the offshore waters around the islands – with a closer view

Here’s the Hawaiian Islands Sulfate Aerosol animated graphic – showing vog forecast

Tropical moisture will move across the island chain starting tonight, bringing an increase in showers into Saturday…along with increased humidity. This increase will be associated with the remnants of former tropical cyclone Orlene, moving by to our north. The bulk of this precipitation will fall over the windward and mountain areas, especially over the eastern islands. Meanwhile, an early season cold front will approach the state, although will stay well north of our islands. Following in the wake of this first round of showers will be a second area of moisture arriving later Sunday into Monday. Looking even further ahead, as we push into early next week, we’ll find improving conditions, with perhaps yet another uptick in showers arriving around the middle of next week.

Marine environment details: Winds and seas are expected come close to, although just below, Small Craft Advisory (SCA) criteria in the windier marine zones around Maui County and the Big Island. Our trade winds are expected to make a slight shift just south of east tonight through Saturday, as a surface high to the far northeast remains nearly stationary. A new high building north of a cold front to our north, will lead to winds coming back to the trade direction later Sunday, while strengthening. Winds will likely be strong enough to warrant a SCA for the windier zones by Monday, and this advisory is expected to remain in place through much of next week.

Surf is expected to remain below the advisory threshold on all shores through the next week. In the short term, a south-southwest swell is bringing elevated surf to south facing shores, but this swell is expected to be diminishing over the next day or two. While additional swells from the southern hemisphere are expected over the next week, they are expected to be smaller than the current one. A small northwest swell is expected to arrive Friday, peaking Saturday, then lowering Sunday. Another slightly smaller north-northwest swell may arrive Monday and Tuesday.

 

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Weather change on the horizon


World-wide tropical cyclone activity…


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>>> Atlantic Ocean:

Tropical Storm 12L (Karl) remains active, located approximately 255 miles south of Bermuda. Here’s the NHC graphical track map, a satellite image…and what the computer models are showing

Tropical Storm 13L (Lisa) remains active, located approximately 910 west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Here’s the NHC graphical track map, a satellite image…and what the computer models show

1.) A tropical wave located about 350 miles southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands is expected to move rapidly westward across the tropical Atlantic Ocean at 20 to 25 mph for the next several days. Environmental conditions could be conducive for some gradual development while the system approaches the Lesser Antilles next week.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent

Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean

>>> Caribbean: No active tropical cyclones

>>> Gulf of Mexico: No active tropical cyclones

Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Eastern Pacific: No active tropical cyclones

1.) A broad area of low pressure located about 790 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula has changed little in organization during the past several hours. However, environmental conditions are expected to support the development of a tropical depression over the weekend while the disturbance moves slowly toward the northwest and then north at about 5 to 10 mph.

Here’s a satellite image of this area, being referred to as Invest 94E…along with what the computer models are showing

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent

Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Central Pacific: No active tropical cyclones

1.) A weak area of low pressure located about 670 miles south-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii, continues to produce unorganized showers and thunderstorms. No significant development of this system is expected over the next couple of days as it moves slowly west.

*  Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

>>> Northwest Pacific Ocean:

Tropical Storm 20W (Megi) is active, located approximately 960 NM east-southeast of Taipei, Taiwan. Here’s the JTWC graphical track map, a satellite image…and what the computer models are showing

>>> South Pacific Ocean: No active tropical cyclones


>>> North and South Indian Oceans / Arabian Sea: No active tropical cyclones

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)


Interesting: Birds prefer quality over quantity – In a new study that upends the way ornithologists think about a young bird’s diet – but won’t shock parents used to scanning the nutritional profile of their children’s food – Cornell researchers have found that when it comes to what chicks eat, quality trumps quantity.

In recent decades, many aerial insectivores, such as tree swallows, have undergone steep population declines. Cornell researchers have demonstrated for the first time that the fatty acid composition in the tree swallow diet plays a key role in chick health and survival rates, potentially pointing to new ways to protect fragile bird species.

“This study really reforms the way ecologists see the food of wild animals,” said senior author David Winkler, professor of ecology and evolutionary biology in the College of Agriculture and Life Sciences. “From a preoccupation with how much food is available, we need to turn our eyes to what kind of food is available.”

For the study, researchers manipulated the ratio of long-chain omega-3 fatty acids [the good fat present in fish oil] to short-chain omega-3 fatty acids [the good fat in flax seeds] as well as the amount of food. Chicks given diets rich in long-chain omega-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (LCPUFA) grew faster, were in better condition, had more efficient metabolisms and had a stronger immune response compared with chicks on a low LCPUFA diet.

The researchers found that chicks had higher growth rates and better body condition when they were fed a small amount of high-quality food than if they were fed a large amount of low-quality food.

In addition, chicks fed a small amount of high-quality food had similar immune responses and metabolic rates as those fed a large amount of low-quality food.

In the wild, tree swallows and other aerial insectivores typically forage on a mixture of aquatic and terrestrial insects. Aquatic insects are much richer in LCPUFA than insects that live on land.

“We found that aquatic insects are likely a far more important food source than previously thought due to their high-quality fats,” said lead author Lily Twining, a doctoral student in the field of ecology and evolutionary biology. “The destruction and degradation of aquatic habitats that produce insects with long-chain omega-3 fatty acids may be having important negative impacts on tree swallows and other declining aerial insectivores.

“This study provides new clues into how nutrition and food webs impact the decline of prominent species, and provides further incentive to protect freshwater habitats not only for aquatic animals like fish, but also for terrestrial animals like the songbirds in our study,” she added.

Tree swallow populations have declined 36 percent in the past three decades, a circumstance explained at times by reduced insect populations, ecological fragmentation and the effects of climate change. Other North American aerial insectivores – like nighthawks and chimney swifts – have also undergone similar major disruptions in populations