Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Friday…along with the low temperatures Friday:
85 – 77 Lihue, Kauai
87 – 77 Honolulu, Oahu
89 – 75 Molokai AP
90 – 74 Kahului AP, Maui – record high Friday was 94…back in 1951
89 – 77 Kona AP
87 – 70 Hilo AP, Hawaii
Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands…Friday evening:
2.43 Kilohana, Kauai
0.86 Manoa Lyon Arboretum, Oahu
0.28 Molokai
0.03 Lanai
0.00 Kahoolawe
1.47 West Wailuaiki, Maui
0.56 Hilo AP, Big Island
The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph)…Friday evening:
23 Port Allen, Kauai
48 Oahu Forest NWR, Oahu
31 Molokai
23 Lanai
42 Kahoolawe
27 Kaupo Gap, Maui
27 South Point, Big Island
Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 13,800 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. This web cam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon shining down during the night at times. Plus, during the nights you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise and sunset too…depending upon weather conditions.
Aloha Paragraphs
There’s an early season cold front well to our north…which won’t reach us
Thunderstorms in our vicinity…will gradually lose their punch
Clear to partly cloudy…thunderstorms remain offshore
Showers around, mostly offshore…a few are generous – Looping radar image
Small Craft Advisory…coasts and channels around Oahu, Maui County and the Big Island
~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~
Stronger trades now…into the weekend. Here’s the latest weather map, showing high pressure systems to our northeast and northwest…along with a trough of low pressure just southeast of the islands. We can expect gusty trade winds through the weekend, then a touch lighter as we into Monday and Tuesday. As these normal late summer breezes pick up over the next few days, the muggy conditions of late will give way to more normal humidity levels. At this point, I don’t see any end to the trade winds, which will blow right through the end of this 2016 summer season…likely right on into the first couple days of autumn.
The threat of flash flooding has diminished, although there could still be a few heavy showers… especially along the windward sides and around the mountains. The latest forecast suggests that the recent area of tropical moisture will gradually move away as we slide into the weekend. Drier conditions and a more stable airmass will return Sunday…continuing on into the new week ahead. However, as usual, when the trade winds are blowing, there’s always the likelihood of showers being carried towards our windward coasts and slopes. The leeward beaches should be in good shape, with off and on arriving waves…providing nice surfing and bodysurfing action.
Here’s a wind profile…of the offshore waters around the islands – with a closer view
Here’s the Hawaiian Islands Sulfate Aerosol animated graphic – showing vog forecast
Marine environment details: A moderate northwest swell is expected to build today, peak tomorrow below advisory levels, and then gradually diminish Sunday and Monday. Several small south to southwest swells are expected over the next several days, remaining below advisory levels on leeward beaches.
The moderate to locally breezy trades are responsible for the small craft advisory over the typically windy locations near Maui County and the Big Island through Saturday.
Friday Evening Film: All of my movie viewing friends or off the island now, so I’ll go see one alone this time. I’ve picked the new one called Snowden, starring Tom Wilkinson, Nicolas Cage, Joseph Gordon-Levitt, Shailene Woodley, Rhys Ifans, Timothy Olyphant, Joely Richardson and Melissa Leo…among others. The synopsis, Academy Award winning director Oliver Stone, who brought Platoon, Born on the Fourth of July, Wall Street and JFK to the big screen, tackles this fascinating true story. Snowden, the politically-charged, pulse-pounding thriller reveals the incredible untold personal story of Edward Snowden, the polarizing figure who exposed shocking illegal surveillance activities by the NSA…and became one of the most wanted men in the world. He is considered a hero by some, and a traitor by others. No matter which you believe, the epic story of why he did it, who he left behind, and how he pulled it off makes for one of the most compelling films of the year.
This was the opening night for Snowden, and it played in the largest theater of the megaplex. Many of the seats were taken, although it wasn’t by any means a packed house. The basic premise that I took away, if we’re to believe it, is that the Government is electronically spying on us at every turn. This computer spying appeared, at least in the film, to be rampant across our country. The audience is asked to contemplate some very serious questions. This wasn’t my favorite film of the year, although I will say that it was very thought provoking. I enjoyed it quite a lot, and in the end am giving it a B+ grade. It was interesting that I’d say about half the people in the theater clapped out loud at the end of the film…I don’t see this happening much! If you have any interest, here’s the trailer – large screen viewing is good.
Full Moon…called the Harvest Moon in September
World-wide tropical cyclone activity…
>>> Atlantic Ocean:
Tropical Depression 11L (Julia) remains active, located approximately 285 miles southeast of Charleston, South Carolina. Here’s the NHC graphical track map, a satellite image…and what the computer models are showing.
Tropical Storm 12L (Karl) remains active, located approximately 1500 miles east of the Leeward Islands. Here’s the NHC graphical track map, a satellite image…and what the computer models are showing
1.) Showers and thunderstorms have increased near a broad low pressure area associated with a tropical wave located between Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form by the early part of next week while this system moves westward to west-northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic. This system is likely to bring heavy rain and gusty winds to portions of the Cabo Verde Islands during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent
Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean
>>> Caribbean: No active tropical cyclones
>>> Gulf of Mexico: No active tropical cyclones
Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico
Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)
>>> Eastern Pacific:
1.) A broad area of low pressure located about 400 miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico, continues to produce a large area of showers and thunderstorms. Conditions are conducive for development, and a tropical depression is expected to form later today or on Sunday while this system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph a few hundred miles offshore of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent
1.) An area of low pressure could form early next week several hundred miles southwest of southern Mexico. Some gradual development is possible by midweek while the system moves slowly westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent
Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.
Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)
>>> Central Pacific: No active tropical cyclones
Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)
Typhoon 18W (Malakas) remains active…located approximately 276 NM west of Kadena AB, Okinawa, Japan. Here’s the JTWC graphical track map … a satellite image … and what the computer models are showing
>>> South Pacific Ocean: No active tropical cyclones
>>> North and South Indian Oceans / Arabian Sea: No active tropical cyclones
Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
Interesting: Polar bears across the Arctic face shorter sea ice season – It’s no secret that Arctic sea ice is melting. Polar bears, the poster-child for climate change, are among the animals most affected by the seasonal and year-to-year changes in Arctic sea ice, because they rely on this surface for essential activities such as hunting, traveling and breeding.
A new University of Washington study, with funding and satellite data from NASA and other agencies, finds a trend toward earlier sea ice melt in the spring and later ice growth in the fall across all 19 polar bear populations, which can negatively impact the feeding and breeding capabilities of the bears. The paper, will appear in The Cryosphere, which is the first to quantify the sea ice changes in each polar bear sub-population across the entire Arctic region using metrics that are specifically relevant to polar bear biology.
“This study shows declining sea ice for all sub-populations of polar bears,” said co-author Harry Stern, a researcher with the UW’s Polar Science Center. “We have used the same metric across all of the polar bear sub-populations in the Arctic so we can compare and contrast, for example, the Hudson Bay region with the Baffin Bay region using the same metric.”
The analysis shows that the critical timing of the sea ice break-up and sea ice freeze-up is changing in all areas in a direction that is harmful for polar bears.
Nineteen separate polar bear populations live throughout the Arctic, spending their winters and springs roaming on sea ice and hunting. The bears have evolved mainly to eat seals, which provide necessary fats and nutrients in the harsh Arctic environment. Polar bears can’t out swim their prey, so instead they perch on the ice as a platform and ambush seals at breathing holes or break through the ice to access their dens.
“Sea ice really is their platform for life,” said co-author Kristin Laidre, a researcher at the UW’s Polar Science Center. “They are capable of existing on land for part of the year, but the sea ice is where they obtain their main prey.”
The new study draws upon 35 years of satellite data showing sea ice concentration each day in the Arctic. NASA scientists process the data, stored at the National Snow and Ice Data Center in Boulder, Colorado.
The center also reports each fall the yearly minimum low for Arctic sea ice. This August saw the fourth lowest in the satellite record.
Across all 19 polar bear populations, the researchers found that the total number of ice-covered days declined at the rate of seven to 19 days per decade between 1979 and 2014. Sea ice concentration during the summer months — an important measure because summertime is when some sub-populations are forced to fast on land — also declined in all regions, by 1 percent to 9 percent per decade.
The most striking result, researchers said, is the consistent trend across all polar bear regions for an earlier spring ice melt and a later fall freeze-up. Arctic sea ice retreats in the springtime as daylight reappears and temperatures warm. In the fall months the ice sheets build again as temperatures drop.
“These spring and fall transitions bound the period when there is good ice habitat available for bears to feed,” Laidre said. “Those periods are also tied to the breeding season when bears find mates, and when females come out of their maternity dens with very small cubs and haven’t eaten for months.”
The researchers found that on average, spring melting was three to nine days earlier per decade, and fall freeze-up was three to nine days later per decade. That corresponds to a roughly 3 ½ week shift at either end — and seven weeks of total loss of good sea ice habitat for polar bears — over the 35 years of Arctic sea ice data.
“We expect that if the trends continue, compared with today, polar bears will experience another six to seven weeks of ice-free periods by mid-century,” Stern said. The trend appears to be linear and isn’t accelerating or leveling off, Stern added. The researchers recommend that the National Climate Assessment incorporate the timing of spring ice retreat and fall ice advance as measures of climate change in future reports.
The study’s results currently are used by the International Union for Conservation of Nature’s polar bear specialist group, which completes assessments of polar bears and issues the species’ conservation status. The researchers plan to update their findings each year as new ice coverage data are available.
“It’s nice to see this work being used in high-level conservation goals,” Laidre said.
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