Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Monday…along with the low temperatures Monday:

86 – 75  Lihue, Kauai
86 – 76  Honolulu, Oahu
83 – 76  Molokai AP
89 – 71  Kahului AP, Maui
88 – 76  Kona AP
86 – 71  Hilo AP, Hawaii

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands…Monday evening:

0.71  N Wailua Ditch, Kauai
1.56  Poamoho RG 1, Oahu
2.37  Molokai
0.04  Lanai
0.00  Kahoolawe
2.60  Kahakuloa, Maui
0.83  Waiakea Uka, Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph)…Monday evening:

20  Port Allen, Kauai
35  Kuaokala, Oahu
17  Molokai
18  Lanai
20  Kahoolawe
22  Maalaea Bay, Maui
23  South Point, Big Island

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 13,800 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. This web cam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon shining down during the night at times. Plus, during the nights you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise and sunset too…depending upon weather conditions.


Aloha Paragraphs

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Hurricane Orlene is churning the waters of the eastern Pacific…I don’t see this tropical cyclone as a threat to Hawaii


Close-up look at Hurricane Orlene

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What the computer models are showing for Orlene’s migration westward

 

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A long swath of clouds over the eastern part of the state

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Cloudy eastern islands, clear to partly cloudy western islands

 

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Showers locally…some will be heavy – Looping radar image


Flash Flood Watch…Maui County and the Big Island

 

~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~

 

Lighter trade winds…then stronger again Thursday onward. Here’s the latest weather map, showing a moderately strong, near 1032 millibar high pressure system far to our northeast, the source of our local trades. Winds will become light enough to allow for local daytime sea breezes and nighttime land breezes…through the first half of this week. As the winds remain on the lighter side of normal, and relative humidity levels rise, we’ll find muggy conditions over the state for many days. We can expect strengthening trade winds during the second part of the week into early next week.

Areas of low pressure are moving closer to the islands…which will bring unsettled weather to Hawaii. This will result in the atmosphere becoming less stable, and more shower prone. Meanwhile, an area of deep tropical moisture, associated with a surface low near the state…is spreading eastward over us as well. We’ll find a prolonged period of off and on showers, along with spotty heavy rain at times too. This combination of weather features can spawn thunderstorms, which will lead to localized flooding issues here and there. As we get into the weekend, and on into early next week…conditions should improve.

Here’s a wind profile…of the offshore waters around the islands – with a closer view

Here’s the Hawaiian Islands Sulfate Aerosol animated graphic – showing vog forecast

Marine environment details: An early season northwest swell is expected to peak Tuesday below advisory levels, before gradually tapering off. Another northwest swell is expected to build late Friday, and peak Friday night through Saturday…below advisory levels before subsiding. A series of small south to southwest swells will persist through Monday.

Winds and seas are both expected to remain below small craft advisory conditions through Thursday. As the high pressure system begins to build north of the islands toward the end of the week, winds may increase to bring small craft advisory conditions to the typically windier locations near Maui and the Big Island.

 

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Unsettled late summer weather this week


World-wide tropical cyclone activity…

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>>> Atlantic Ocean:

Tropical Storm 10L (Ian) remains active in the central Atlantic, located approximately 895 miles east-southeast of Bermuda. Here’s the NHC graphical track map, a satellite image…and what the computer models are showing.

1.)  An area of low pressure located just west of Melbourne, Florida, is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms near the Florida east coast and the adjacent Atlantic waters. Significant development of this system is not likely since the low is expected to continue to move over land through Wednesday. Locally heavy rains will continue to spread over central and northern Florida today and tonight.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…near 0 percent

2.)  A broad area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, located a couple of hundred miles east-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a large area of disorganized cloudiness and showers. Slow development of this disturbance is possible during the next several days while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the tropical Atlantic. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains and gusty winds are likely over portions of the Cabo Verde Islands through Wednesday.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent

Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean

>>> Caribbean: No active tropical cyclones

>>> Gulf of Mexico: No active tropical cyclones

Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Eastern Pacific:

Category 2 Hurricane 16E (Orlene) is located approximately 605 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Here’s the NHC graphical track map, a satellite image…and what the computer models are showing

1.) An area of low pressure is expected to form late this week or this weekend several hundred miles south or south-southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Slow development of this system is possible after that time while the low moves generally west- northwestward.

*Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
*Formation chance through 5 days…low…40 percent

Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Central Pacific: No active tropical cyclones

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

>>> Northwest Pacific Ocean:

Super Typhoon 16W (Meranti) remains active, located approximately 284 NM south-southeast of Taipei, Taiwan. Here’s the JTWC graphical track map, a satellite image…and what the computer models are showing

Tropical Storm 18W (Malakas) remains active, located approximately 842 NM east of Manila, Philippines. Here’s the JTWC graphical track map … a satellite image … and what the computer models are showing

Tropical Depression 19W (Rai) is dissipating inland over Vietnam, located approximately 51 NM southeast of Da Nang, Vietnam. Here’s the JTWC graphical track map, and a satellite image – Final Warning

>>> South Pacific Ocean: No active tropical cyclones


>>> North and South Indian Oceans / Arabian Sea: No active tropical cyclones

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)


Interesting: Calculating the role of lakes in global warming – As global temperatures rise, how will lake ecosystems respond? As they warm, will lakes — which make up only 3 percent of the landscape, but bury more carbon than the world’s oceans combined — release more of the greenhouse gases carbon dioxide and methane? And might that create a feedback loop that leads to further warming?

To predict the effects of rising air temperatures on the carbon cycle of lakes, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute researchers will link computer models of changing weather, water temperature, and emissions of carbon dioxide and methane for 2,000 lakes across the United States, including Lake George, through 2105. The project is supported with a $300,000 grant from the National Science Foundation, and led by Kevin Rose, an assistant professor in the Department of Biological Sciences at Rensselaer and the Frederic R. Kolleck ’52 Career Development Chair in Freshwater Ecology.

“We know lakes are important in the global carbon cycle — absorbing and emitting carbon — and that’s critical to regulating global air temperatures. But we don’t know how the role of lakes will change as a result of rising air temperatures,” said Rose. “Right now, we can model changes for an individual lake — using characteristics like surface area, depth, water clarity, and temperature profile — but to be useful as a planning and research tool, we need to work on a much larger scale.”

Carbon enters a lake as organic matter (such as falling leaves or soil suspended in runoff) and is cycled through the food chain, feeding plants and then animals. Some carbon settles to the lake bottom and is buried in sediment, but some is released back into the atmosphere as carbon dioxide and methane. As with all biological processes, lake emissions are temperature dependent, rising and falling along a temperature gradient. The challenge in predicting lake emissions for thousands of lakes across the country lies in the enormous variety of characteristics from lake to lake.

To tackle that challenge, the project will forecast future weather conditions for 2,000 lakes over the next 90 years using high-resolution weather forecasting models and projections of climate change provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

In the second phase of the project, the team will draw upon the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) National Lakes Assessment, a statistical survey that tracks chemical, biological, and physical characteristics of the target lakes. By feeding those characteristics and the forecast weather data into an existing open source hydrodynamic model, the team will generate predicted changes in lake thermal characteristics such as the temperature profile (mapping temperature according to depth), depth of temperature stratification, and ice cover.

The team is able to calibrate and validate the model by running the model back through time, as far back as 1979, and comparing their results with recorded weather and lake temperature data available from the North American Land Data Assimilation System and the EPA National Lakes Assessment.

The team will then use the resulting lake temperature data to estimate changes in lake metabolism — the absorption versus emission of carbon — and seek to draw conclusions based on those estimates, such as differences based on region or specific characteristics of lakes.

“The goal is to close the loop between long-term changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide, leading to global temperature increases, leading to changes in lake water temperature, leading to changes in the role of lakes in the global carbon cycle,” Rose said. “In other words, how much carbon dioxide is going to come out of lakes with more carbon dioxide in the atmosphere — is there going to be positive feedback?”