Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Saturday…along with the low temperatures Saturday:

87 – 78  Lihue, Kauai
85 – 73  Honolulu, Oahu
87 – 74  Molokai AP
88 – 73  Kahului AP, Maui
88 – 75  Kona AP
84 – 70  Hilo AP, Hawaii

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands…Saturday evening:

0.28  Mount Waialeale, Kauai
0.93  Manoa Lyon Arboretum, Oahu
0.43  Molokai
0.00  Lanai
0.00  Kahoolawe
0.95  West Wailuaiki, Maui
0.38  Lower Kahuku, Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph)…Saturday evening:

25  Waimea Heights, Kauai
31  Oahu Forest NWR, Oahu
22  Molokai
18  Lanai
29  Kahoolawe
31  Maalaea Bay, Maui
27  Kealakomo, Big Island

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 13,800 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. This web cam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon shining down during the night at times. Plus, during the nights you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise and sunset too…depending upon weather conditions.


Aloha Paragraphs

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A tropical disturbance is located southeast of the islands, moving slowly northwest…with an early season storm and cold front far to the north

 

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Tropical disturbances southwest and southeast of the state, sending high cirrus clouds our way…along with increasing showers

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Low clouds arriving on the trades…tropical disturbances lower left and right

 

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Increasing showers locally…some will be heavy – Looping radar image

 

~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~

 

Moderately strong trade winds…gradually becoming lighter. Here’s the latest weather map, showing a moderately strong, near 1030 millibar high pressure system to our north-northeast, the source of our local trades. Winds will become light enough to allow for local daytime sea breezes and nighttime land breezes…well into the new week ahead. As the winds become lighter, and relative humidity levels rise, we’ll find sultry conditions enveloping the state.

A low pressure system is moving closer to the islands…which will bring weather changes. This will result in the atmosphere becoming less stable, and more shower prone. Meanwhile, an area of moisture associated with a surface low, located just southeast of the state, is spreading north as well. This tropical moisture will reach the eastern islands first. We’ll find a prolonged period of off and on showers, along with spotty heavy showers at times too. This is the kind of situation that can spawn thunderstorms, which may lead to localized flooding issues here and there.

Here’s a wind profile…of the offshore waters around the islands – with a closer view

Here’s the Hawaiian Islands Sulfate Aerosol animated graphic – showing vog forecast

Marine environment details: Surf will remain rather small through this weekend. A moderate northwest swell arriving late Monday will peak below the advisory threshold Tuesday, and last through Thursday. Another moderate northwest swell is possible by next weekend. A moderate southwest swell arriving late Monday will persist through Wednesday.

Winds and seas are expected to stay below advisory levels over the coastal waters through at least the middle of the new week.

 

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Weather changes on the horizon


World-wide tropical cyclone activity…

 

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>>> Atlantic Ocean: No active tropical cyclones

1.)  A low pressure system located about 1000 miles east of the Leeward Islands is producing a large area of cloudiness and showers, but it currently has limited thunderstorm activity near the center of circulation. However, a tropical depression is still likely to form later today or on Monday before upper-level winds become less conducive for development. The low is expected to move northwestward or north-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the central Atlantic Ocean during the next few days.

This disturbance is being called Invest 94L, here’s a satellite image and what the computer models are showing

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent

Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean

>>> Caribbean: No active tropical cyclones

1.)  Showers and thunderstorms have increased with a disturbance located near the southeastern Bahamas. However, there are still no signs of a surface circulation, and conditions do not appear conducive for significant development of this disturbance while it moves west- northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. Heavy rainfall is possible over portions of the Bahamas today and on Monday.

This disturbance is being called Invest 93L, here’s a satellite image and what the computer models are showing

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…near 0 percent

>>> Gulf of Mexico: No active tropical cyclones

1.)  A few showers and thunderstorms have re-formed near a weak area of low pressure located over southeastern Gulf of Mexico. However, upper-level winds will not be conducive for development of this system while it moves generally westward across the Gulf of Mexico during the next few days at 5 to 10 mph.

This disturbance is being called Invest 92L, here’s a satellite image and what the computer models are showing

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…near 0 percent

Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Eastern Pacific:

Tropical Storm 16E (Orlene) remains active, located approximately 685 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Here’s the NHC graphical track map, a satellite image…and what the computer models are showing

Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Central Pacific: No active tropical cyclones

1.) Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue to develop around a weak surface low located about 300 miles east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii. Environmental conditions support only limited development of this system during the next couple of days as it moves slowly to the northwest.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent

2.) A weak surface low is located about 850 miles southwest of Honolulu, Hawaii, and is moving slowly northwest or north. Showers and thunderstorms near the low have been occurring infrequently over the past six hours. Environmental conditions support only gradual development over the next couple of days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

>>> Northwest Pacific Ocean:

Typhoon 16W (Meranti) remains active, located approximately 554 NM north-northwest of Yap. Here’s the JTWC graphical track map, a satellite image…and what the computer models are showing

Tropical Depression 17W remains active, located approximately 781 NM east of Misawa, Japan. Here’s the JTWC graphical track map, a satellite image…and what the computer models are showing

>>> South Pacific Ocean: No active tropical cyclones


>>> North and South Indian Oceans / Arabian Sea: No active tropical cyclones

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)


Interesting: Scientists expect to calculate amount of fuel inside Earth by 2025 – Earth requires fuel to drive plate tectonics, volcanoes and its magnetic field. Like a hybrid car, Earth taps two sources of energy to run its engine: primordial energy from assembling the planet and nuclear energy from the heat produced during natural radioactive decay. Scientists have developed numerous models to predict how much fuel remains inside Earth to drive its engines — and estimates vary widely — but the true amount remains unknown.

In a new paper, a team of geologists and neutrino physicists boldly claims it will be able to determine by 2025 how much nuclear fuel and radioactive power remain in the Earth’s tank. The study, authored by scientists from the University of Maryland, Charles University in Prague and the Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences, was published on September 9, 2016, in the journal Nature Scientific Reports.

“I am one of those scientists who has created a compositional model of the Earth and predicted the amount of fuel inside Earth today,” said one of the study’s authors William McDonough, a professor of geology at the University of Maryland. “We’re in a field of guesses. At this point in my career, I don’t care if I’m right or wrong, I just want to know the answer.”

To calculate the amount of fuel inside Earth by 2025, the researchers will rely on detecting some of the tiniest subatomic particles known to science — geoneutrinos. These antineutrino particles are byproducts of nuclear reactions within stars (including our sun), supernovae, black holes and human-made nuclear reactors. They also result from radioactive decay processes deep within the Earth.

Detecting antineutrinos requires a huge detector the size of a small office building, housed about a mile underground to shield it from cosmic rays that could yield false positive results. Inside the detector, scientists detect antineutrinos when they crash into a hydrogen atom. The collision produces two characteristic light flashes that unequivocally announce the event. The number of events scientists detect relates directly to the number of atoms of uranium and thorium inside the Earth. And the decay of these elements, along with potassium, fuels the vast majority of the heat in the Earth’s interior.

To date, detecting antineutrinos has been painfully slow, with scientists recording only about 16 events per year from the underground detectors KamLAND in Japan and Borexino in Italy. However, researchers predict that three new detectors expected to come online by 2022–the SNO+ detector in Canada and the Jinping and JUNO detectors in China–will add 520 more events per year to the data stream.

“Once we collect three years of antineutrino data from all five detectors, we are confident that we will have developed an accurate fuel gauge for the Earth and be able to calculate the amount of remaining fuel inside Earth,” said McDonough.

The new Jinping detector, which will be buried under the slopes of the Himalayas, will be four times bigger than existing detectors. The underground JUNO detector near the coast of southern China will be 20 times bigger than existing detectors.

“Knowing exactly how much radioactive power there is in the Earth will tell us about Earth’s consumption rate in the past and its future fuel budget,” said McDonough. “By showing how fast the planet has cooled down since its birth, we can estimate how long this fuel will last.”