Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Saturday…along with the low temperatures Saturday:
87 – 75 Lihue, Kauai
87 – 76 Honolulu, Oahu
87 – 75 Molokai AP
88 – 74 Kahului AP, Maui
88 – 77 Kona AP
84 – 70 Hilo AP, Hawaii
Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands…Saturday evening:
0.23 Kilohana, Kauai
0.71 Moanalua RG, Oahu
0.64 Molokai
0.00 Lanai
0.01 Kahoolawe
1.40 West Wailuaiki, Maui
0.36 Saddle Quarry, Big Island
The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph)…Saturday evening:
27 Port Allen, Kauai
32 Oahu Forest NWR, Oahu
25 Molokai
30 Lanai
22 Kahoolawe
28 Maalaea Bay, Maui
24 Kealakomo, Big Island
Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 13,800 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. This web cam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon shining down during the night at times. Plus, during the nights you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise and sunset too…depending upon weather conditions.
Aloha Paragraphs
Tropical Storm Madeline and Hurricane Lester moving slowly westward
Tropical Storm Madeline east-southeast of Hawaii…and a tropical disturbance well south of the state
Close-up view of Tropical Storm Madeline
Looping mode of TS Madeline
Clear to partly cloudy…with cloudy areas
Showers generally windward…although not exclusively – Looping radar image
Small Craft Advisory…windiest coasts and channels around Maui County and the Big Island
~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~
Our trade winds will prevail through about Tuesday…with then possible changes by mid-week. Here’s the latest weather map, showing a moderately strong near 1031 millibar high pressure system far north of Hawaii. The trade winds will continue into the first few days of the new week, with some probable changes in our local wind conditions thereafter for several days. This will depend upon how close tropical storm Madeline comes to the state…and the intensity of her winds then too. We may be looking at stronger winds for several days, as this storm potentially moves close to the state.
Here’s a wind profile…of the offshore waters around the islands – with a closer view
As we move through the night into Sunday, we’ll find off and on showery conditions, at least locally…with potential inclement weather arriving towards the middle of the new week. This generally alright weather will prevail through the first day or two of the new week ahead. Satellite imagery does however show showers falling at times through early Monday, mostly over the windward sides. Thereafter, we’ll likely be in store for a more pronounced change, with possible deep tropical moisture arriving later Tuesday through Thursday or so. This would be in association with tropical storm Madeline moving closer to our islands.
TS Madeline has moved into our central Pacific. Although, the models show this tropical storm still to the east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands through Tuesday, we’ll need to closely monitor the situation. Tropical Storm Madeline continues heading in the general direction of the Hawaiian Islands. The way it looks now, we could see a significant change in our local weather beginning later Tuesday into Wednesday. There’s a chance for tropical storm conditions to impact parts of the state, which includes wind speeds of 39+ mph…with flooding rainfall locally. Looking even further ahead, we may see whatever is left of Hurricane Lester getting close to the islands, or moving by to our north during the Labor Day holiday weekend. There will certainly be ongoing changes and adjustments to the outlook on these two systems as we move forward…stay tuned.
Marine environment details: A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the typically windier locations around Maui County and the Big Island, due to locally breezy trade winds accelerating around the island terrain. Winds are expected to pick up as the cloud feature northeast of the state moves through into Sunday.
No significant swells are expected through the middle of the new week, though surf along east facing shores will be slightly elevated due to the stronger trades. Winds and seas, as well as surf along east facing shores, may increase toward the middle and end of the week due to the possible effects from Tropical Cyclones Madeline and Lester.
Friday Evening Film: I went to see one called Jason Bourne, starring Matt Damon, Tommy Lee Jones, Alicia Vikander, Vincent Cassel, Julia Stiles, and Riz Ahmed...among many others. The synopsis: It’s been 10 years since Jason Bourne (Matt Damon) walked away from the agency that trained him to become a deadly weapon. Hoping to draw him out of the shadows, CIA director Robert Dewey assigns hacker and counterinsurgency expert Heather Lee to find him. Lee suspects that former operative Nicky Parsons is also looking for him. As she begins tracking the duo, Bourne finds himself back in action battling a sinister network that utilizes terror and technology to maintain unchecked power.
This was a very good film, which I thoroughly enjoyed…and was surprised that the critics didn’t give it a higher grade. The long and short of it was that I was entertained, although there were a few moments that were a bit too slow. Far and away, Matt Damon carried the film, although I was quite taken by both Tommy Lee Jones and Alicia Vikander as well. You know, now that I’m going over the film in my memory, I wasn’t all that taken by the outlandish car chase scenes either. So, what kind of grade am I going to give it? I’m thinking a strong B+ probably gets at it pretty well, all things considered. Here’s the trailer, and oh by the way…this is a full-on action film!
Windward showers…extending over into the leeward sections at times
World-wide tropical cyclone activity…
>>> Atlantic Ocean:
Hurricane 07L (Gaston) remains active in the Atlantic Ocean, located about 600 miles east of Bermuda…here’s a satellite image…along with computer models
Tropical Depression 08L is now active in the Atlantic Ocean, located about 405 miles southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina…here’s a satellite image…along with computer models
Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean
>>> Caribbean: No active tropical cyclones
1.) A weak area of low pressure located near the north coast of central Cuba continues to produce a large area of disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms. Upper-level winds are not conducive for significant development today while this system moves westward through the Straits of Florida. The low is expected to move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Monday, where environmental conditions could become somewhat more conducive for development. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and gusty winds are likely over portions of the central and northwestern Bahamas, and Cuba through tonight. Gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall will spread into parts of southern Florida and the Florida Keys later today. Interests elsewhere in Florida and the eastern Gulf of Mexico should continue to monitor the progress of this disturbance. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system this afternoon, if necessary.
This area is being referred to as Invest 99L, here’s a satellite image…and what the models are showing
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent
>>> Gulf of Mexico: No active tropical cyclones
Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico
Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)
>>> Eastern Pacific:
Hurricane 13E (Lester) remains active in the Pacific Ocean, located about 950 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California…here’s the NHC graphical track map, with a satellite image…along with computer model
1.) A broad area of cloudiness and disorganized showers is located several hundred miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Development, if any, of this system is expected to be slow to occur as it moves westward or west- northwestward during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent
2.) An area of low pressure is expected to form later this week a few hundred miles south or southeast of Acapulco, Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for slow development of this system as it moves generally west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent
Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.
Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)
>>> Central Pacific:
Tropical Storm 14E (Madeline) remains active in the central Pacific Ocean, located about 970 miles east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii…here’s a satellite image…along with computer models
Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)
Typhoon 12W (Lionrock) remains active in the western Pacific, located 410 NM south of Yokosuka, Japan…here’s a satellite image , with what the computer models are showing
>>> South Pacific Ocean: No active tropical cyclones
>>> North and South Indian Oceans / Arabian Sea: No active tropical cyclones
Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
Interesting: NASA Monitors the ‘New Normal’ of Sea Ice – This year’s melt season in the Arctic Ocean and surrounding seas started with a bang, with a record low maximum extent in March and relatively rapid ice loss through May. The melt slowed down in June, however, making it highly unlikely that this year’s summertime sea ice minimum extent will set a new record.
Youtube video: Arctic Sea Ice from March to August 2016
“Even when it’s likely that we won’t have a record low, the sea ice is not showing any kind of recovery. It’s still in a continued decline over the long term,” said Walt Meier, a sea ice scientist at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland. “It’s just not going to be as extreme as other years because the weather conditions in the Arctic were not as extreme as in other years.”
“A decade ago, this year’s sea ice extent would have set a new record low and by a fair amount. Now, we’re kind of used to these low levels of sea ice – it’s the new normal.”
This year’s sea ice cover of the Barents and Kara seas north of Russia opened up early, in April, exposing the surface ocean waters to the energy from the sun weeks ahead of schedule. By May 31, the extent of the Arctic sea ice cover was comparable to end-of-June average levels. But the Arctic weather changed in June and slowed the sea ice loss. A persistent area of low atmospheric pressure, accompanied by cloudiness, winds that dispersed ice and lower-than-average temperatures, didn’t favor melt.
The rate of ice loss picked up again during the first two weeks of August, and is now greater than average for this time of the year. A strong cyclone is moving through the Arctic, similar to one that occurred in early August 2012. Four years ago, the storm caused an accelerated loss of ice during a period when the decline in sea ice is normally slowing because the sun is setting in the Arctic. However, the current storm doesn’t appear to be as strong as the 2012 cyclone and ice conditions are less vulnerable than four years ago, Meier said.
“This year is a great case study in showing how important the weather conditions are during the summer, especially in June and July, when you have 24 hours of sunlight and the sun is high in the sky in the Arctic,” Meier said. “If you get the right atmospheric conditions during those two months, they can really accelerate the ice loss. If you don’t, they can slow down any melting momentum you had. So our predictive ability in May of the September minimum is limited, because the sea ice cover is so sensitive to the early-to-mid-summer atmospheric conditions, and you can’t foresee summer weather.”
As scientists are keeping an eye on the Arctic sea ice cover, NASA is also preparing for a new method to measure the thickness of sea ice – a difficult but key characteristic to track from orbit.
“We have a good handle on the sea ice area change,” said Thorsten Markus, Goddard’s cryosphere lab chief. “We have very limited knowledge how thick it is.”
Research vessels or submarines can measure ice thickness directly, and some airborne instruments have taken readings that can be used to calculate thickness. But satellites haven’t been able to provide a complete look at sea ice thickness in particular during melting conditions, Markus said. The radar instruments that penetrate the snow during winter to measure thickness don’t work once you add in the salty water of the melting sea ice, since the salinity interferes with the radar.
The Ice, Cloud and land Elevation Satellite-2, or ICESat-2, will use lasers to try to get more complete answers of sea ice thickness. The satellite, slated to launch by 2018, will use a laser altimeter to measure the heights of Earth’s surface.
In the Arctic, it will measure the elevation of the ice floes, compared to the water level. However, only about one-tenth of sea ice is above the water surface; the other nine-tenths lie below.
To estimate the entire thickness of the ice floe, researchers will need to go beyond the above-water height measurements, and perform calculations to account for factors like the snow on top of the ice and the densities of the frozen layers. Scientists are eager to see the measurements turned into data on sea ice thickness, Markus said.
“If we want to estimate mass changes of sea ice, or increased melting, we need the sea ice thickness,” he said. “It’s critically important to understanding the changes in the Arctic.”
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