Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Friday…along with the low temperatures Friday:

85 – 74  Lihue, Kauai
88 – 76  Honolulu, Oahu
87 – 75  Molokai AP
88 – 75  Kahului AP, Maui
89 – 77  Kona AP
83 – 71  Hilo AP, Hawaii

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands…Friday evening:

3.74  Mount Waialeale, Kauai
1.76  Manoa Lyon Arboretum, Oahu
0.32  Molokai
0.00  Lanai
0.00  Kahoolawe
0.90  West Wailuaiki, Maui
1.98  Kawainui Stream, Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph)…Friday evening:

31  Port Allen, Kauai
30  Kuaokala, Oahu
24  Molokai
35  Lanai
35  Kahoolawe
32  Maalaea Bay, Maui
31  Kealakomo, Big Island

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 13,800 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. This web cam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon shining down during the night at times. Plus, during the nights you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise and sunset too…depending upon weather conditions.


Aloha Paragraphs

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Disturbances in the deeper tropics to our southwest through southeast

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/cpac/vis.jpg
Thunderstorms offshore west through south and east…with tropical disturbances spinning by to our south

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/hi/vis.jpg
Mostly clear to partly cloudy…clouds moving towards the windward sides

 

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A few showers locally…mostly windward – Looping radar image


Small Craft Advisory…MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL

~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~

Moderately strong trade winds will prevail through the weekend…then become lighter from the southeast Monday. Here’s the latest weather map, showing a near 1034 millibar high pressure system far north-northeast of Hawaii. Meanwhile, there’s several low pressure systems/troughs traveling more or less from east to west…in the deeper tropics to our south. The gradient between high pressure to our northeast, and low pressure to our south, will keep the trade winds blowing across our latitudes here in the central Pacific. These refreshing trades will give way to much lighter winds Monday through next Wednesday, ushering in sultry weather conditions…and perhaps even some unusual summertime volcanic haze for the smaller islands. During the second half of next week, starting around Thursday, more normal trade winds will return, taking the edge off the muggy weather.

Here’s a wind profile…of the offshore waters around the islands – with a closer view

Here’s the Hawaiian Islands Sulfate Aerosol animated graphic – showing vog forecast

Clouds and showers will favor windward areas…through Sunday. We’ll begin to see areas of deeper moisture moving across the state early Monday, first over the eastern islands, then spreading up across the rest of the state Tuesday. At the same time, a trough of low pressure will edge closer to the state then too, prompting some locally generous showers here and there. The long shot for the Monday through Wednesday time frame, will be a few thunderstorms. At the same time, the winds will become softer as well, and we’ll see increased afternoon cloud buildups…with localized showers in the upcountry areas. The long range outlook calls for a more typical summertime trade wind pattern later next week.

Marine environment details: Locally strong trade winds associated with high pressure northeast of the region will continue into Saturday. The strongest winds are expected across the typically windier locations between the Big Island and Molokai. Winds are expected to remain slightly below advisory levels across the waters south of the Big Island…keeping advisory-level winds over the Pailolo and Alenuihaha Channels and Maalaea Bay through Saturday. Trade winds will begin to relax later in the weekend and early next week as a weak trough approaches, and moves into the region from the southeast. Seas will respond across the area waters and gradually subside over the weekend and into next week.

Choppy surf due to onshore winds will continue for east facing shores through Saturday, before gradually easing Sunday through early next week. A series of small southerly swells will continue to generate small surf along the exposed southern shores through the period. A small north-northwest swell is expected today and Saturday, which will generate a small increase in surf along the north facing shores. 

Friday Evening Film – Let me start off by saying that I’m really looking forward to seeing the new Jason Bourne film. My friend Jeff has already seen it, and has suggested that we see another new film called War Dogs. I’ve decided to see this film, and will be hoping that Jason Bourne will still be around next Friday. At any rate, War Dogs is a comedy drama, starring Jonah Hill, Miles Teller, Ana de Armas, Bradley Cooper, Kevin Pollak, and Brenda Koo…among others. The synopsis: “War Dogs” follows two friends in their early 20s (Hill and Teller) living in Miami Beach during the Iraq War, who exploit a little-known government initiative that allows small businesses to bid on U.S. Military contracts. Starting small, they begin raking in big money and are living the high life. But the pair gets in over their heads when they land a 300 million dollar deal to arm the Afghan Military…a deal that puts them in business with some very shady people, not the least of which turns out to be the U.S. Government.

It was one of those films that I really shouldn’t have, although I gave it an A- grade anyway! I didn’t feel too badly in doing so however, as Jeff gave the same grade. As one critic wrote, “with a gripping true story and a handful of accomplished performances, War Dogs turns out to be the biggest, nicest surprise of the 2016 summer movie season.” It was one of those films that qualified as both funny, and also smart…which is such a great combination in my book. This film was engaging from start to finish, and I kept thinking about how good the music track was too. In my estimation, Jonah Hill stood out as the main leading star of the film, although Miles Teller definitely held his own too. It was interesting that we saw this film on the opening night, and it played in the largest theater of the megaplex, and yet there was really just a sprinkling of seats filled. At any rate, if you’re interested…here’s the trailer.

 

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Is this paradise…or what?


World-wide tropical cyclone activity…

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>>> Atlantic Ocean:

Tropical Storm 06L (Fiona) remains active in the central Atlantic Ocean, located about 940 miles east-northeast of the Leeward Islands…here’s the NHC graphical track map, with a satellite image…along with computer models

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT06/refresh/AL0616W5_NL+gif/024535W5_NL_sm.gif

1.) A broad area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, is located about 750 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. This system continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms, and any development should be slow to occur due to its large size and proximity to dry air. Environmental conditions are forecast to be more conducive for development beyond a couple of days, and a tropical depression could form by the middle of next week while the system moves westward at 15 to 20 mph across the tropical Atlantic Ocean and into the eastern Caribbean Sea.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent

2.) A tropical wave located inland over western Africa is producing a large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms. This wave is expected to move offshore tonight and environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development while it moves generally west-northwestward over the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean during the next several days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent

Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean

>>> Caribbean Sea: No active tropical cyclones

>>> Gulf of Mexico: No active tropical cyclones

Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Eastern Pacific:

Tropical Storm 12E (Kay) remains active, located about 255 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California…here’s the NHC graphical track map, with a satellite image…along with computer models

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/EP12/refresh/EP1216W5+gif/203918W_sm.gif
Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Central Pacific: No active tropical cyclones

No Tropical Cyclones expected through at least the next 2-days

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

>>> Northwest Pacific Ocean:

Tropical Storm 10W (Mindulle) remains active in the western Pacific, located about 354 NM south of Iwo To…here’s the JTWC graphical track map, with a satellite image…and what the computer model

Tropical Storm 12W (Lionrock) remains active in the western Pacific, located about 208 NM south-southeast of Yokosuka, Japan…here’s the JTWC graphical track map, with a satellite image…and what the computer models show

Tropical Storm 13W (Kompasu) remains active in the western Pacific, located about 423 NM east-southeast of Yokosuka, Japan, here’s the JTWC graphical track map, a satellite image…and what the computer models show

>>> South Pacific Ocean: No active tropical cyclones


>>> North and South Indian Oceans / Arabian Sea: No active tropical cyclones

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)


Interesting: A surge in major wildfire events in the U.S. West, as a consequence of climate change, will expose tens of millions of Americans to higher levels of air pollution in the coming decades…according to a new Yale-led study conducted with collaborators from Harvard – The researchers estimated air pollution from past and projected future wildfires in 561 western counties, and found that by mid-century more than 82 million people will experience “smoke waves,” or consecutive days with high air pollution related to fires.

The regions likely to receive the highest exposure to wildfire smoke in the future include northern California, western Oregon, and the Great Plains.

Their results, published in the journal Climatic Change, point to the need for new or modified wildfire management and evacuation programs in the nation’s high-risk regions, said Jia Coco Liu, a recent Ph.D. graduate at the Yale School of Forestry & Environmental Studies (F&ES) and lead author of the study.

“Our study illustrates that smoke waves are likely to be longer, more intense, and more frequent under climate change,” Liu said. “This raises critical health, ecological, and economic concerns. Identifying communities that will be most affected in the future will inform development of fire management strategies and disaster preparedness programs.”

Other authors include Michelle Bell, the Mary E. Pinchot Professor of Environmental Health at F&ES; Keita Ebisu, a former doctoral student with Dr. Bell; as well as colleagues at Harvard, Colorado State University, and the University of Michigan.

Smoke from wildfires, which are becoming more frequent and intense in the U.S. West as the climate changes, contains large amounts of fine particulate matter, or PM2.5, which can have profound impacts on human health.

But while wildfires are estimated to contribute about 18 percent of the total PM2.5 emissions in the U.S., many questions remain on how these emissions will affect human populations, including how overall air quality will be affected, how these levels will change under climate change, and which regions are to most likely to be impacted.

Using sophisticated atmospheric and climate models, the researchers estimated the levels of PM2.5 directly attributable to wildfires during a recent six-year period, 2004 to 2009, as well as under projected future climate change conditions (2046-2051).

Twenty counties that are currently free from smoke waves are expected to experience at least one in the future six-year period. The length of the smoke wave season, the period between the first and last smoke wave day, is estimated to increase by an average of 15 days in more than 62.5 percent of the counties.

About 56 percent of the counties currently affected by smoke waves — including most located in the forests of the northern Rocky Mountains and coastal counties — will likely face more intense smoke waves in the future. (About 19 percent will have less intense smoke waves.)

The researchers also developed an interactive map to illustrate their findings.

“We hope these results will advance the understanding of the impacts of an increasing threat of wildfire smoke, and aid in the design of early warning systems, fire suppression policies and public health programs,” said Liu.