Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Wednesday…along with the low temperatures Wednesday:
86 – 74 Lihue, Kauai
89 – 74 Honolulu, Oahu
89 – 69 Molokai AP
89 – 70 Kahului AP, Maui
89 – 76 Kona AP
85 – 69 Hilo AP, Hawaii
Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands…Wednesday evening:
0.58 Mount Waialeale, Kauai
0.19 Waihee Pump, Oahu
0.00 Molokai
0.00 Lanai
0.00 Kahoolawe
0.27 West Wailuaiki, Maui
0.56 Saddle Quarry, Big Island
The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph)…Wednesday evening:
20 Port Allen, Kauai
32 Oahu Forest NWR, Oahu
28 Molokai
25 Lanai
32 Kahoolawe
33 Maalaea Bay, Maui
35 Kealakomo, Big Island
Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 13,800 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. This web cam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon shining down during the night at times. Plus, during the nights you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise and sunset too…depending upon weather conditions.
Aloha Paragraphs
Minor disturbances in the deeper tropics to our south
Thunderstorms offshore southwest…with a tropical disturbance spinning to our south
Clear to partly cloudy…some cloudy areas
A few showers – Looping radar image
Small Craft Advisory…MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL- BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS
~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~
The trade winds will prevail through the weekend…then become lighter from the southeast. Here’s the latest weather map, showing a moderately strong high pressure system well northeast of Hawaii. Meanwhile, there’s several low pressure systems/troughs traveling more or less from east to west…in the deeper tropics to our south. The gradient between the high pressure to our north, and low pressure to our south, will keep the trade winds blowing across our latitudes here in the central Pacific. The trade winds will increase a notch Thursday and Friday, and then ease up some during the weekend. These refreshing trades will give way to lighter winds Monday through next Wednesday, ushering in sultry weather conditions…and perhaps even some unusual summertime volcanic haze for the smaller islands.
Here’s a wind profile…of the offshore waters around the islands – with a closer view
Here’s the Hawaiian Islands Sulfate Aerosol animated graphic – showing vog forecast
Clouds and showers will favor windward areas…although remain limited for the time being. The current forecast brings showers our way, as cloudiness in the deeper tropics to our south…moves northward. This moisture will impact the windward sides of the eastern islands Thursday and Friday, and then stretch over the windward sides of the other islands during the weekend. At the same time, a trough of low pressure will edge closer to the state Saturday and Sunday, prompting some locally generous showers locally. As we push into early next week, and as the winds become softer, we’ll see increased afternoon cloud buildups…with localized showers in the upcountry areas.
Marine environment details: A small south swell will bring a slight bump in surf along south facing shores, with another small southwest swell expected by the weekend.
High pressure far northeast of the state will maintain moderate to locally fresh trade winds over the coastal waters, with a slight strengthening Thursday and Friday. Small Craft Advisory for locally strong trades in the typical windy waters around Maui County and the Big Island during the Thursday to Friday period. Winds will weaken back to moderate this weekend…and then become even lighter early next week.
Full Moon tonight
World-wide tropical cyclone activity
>>> Atlantic Ocean:
Tropical Storm 06L (Fiona) remains active in the Atlantic Ocean, located about 1095 miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands…here’s the NHC graphical track map, with a satellite image…along with computer models
1.) A tropical wave is forecast to move off of the coast of Africa on Saturday. Development, if any, of this system is expected to be slow to occur as the wave moves generally westward through a marginally favorable environment.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent
Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean
>>> Caribbean Sea: No active tropical cyclones
>>> Gulf of Mexico: No active tropical cyclones
Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico
Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)
>>> Eastern Pacific: No active tropical cyclones
Showers and thunderstorms gradually continue to become better organized in association with a low pressure system located about 350 miles west-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Upper-level winds are expected to become more conducive for a tropical depression to form tonight or tomorrow while this system moves generally northwestward.
This area of disturbed weather is known as Invest 97E
This is a satellite image of this area…and what the computer models are showing
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent
Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.
Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)
>>> Central Pacific: No active tropical cyclones
1.) A weak area of low pressure, located about 560 miles south-southwest of Hilo, Hawaii, is producing disorganized showers and isolated thunderstorms. Further development, if any, will be slow to occur during the next couple of days while the system moves westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
This area is being referred to as Invest 91C
Here’s what the computer models are showing…with a satellite image
No Tropical Cyclones expected through at least the next 2-days
Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)
Tropical Depression 10W remains active in the western Pacific, located about 189 NM north-northwest of Andersen AFB…here’s the JTWC graphical track map, with a satellite image…and what the computer models
Tropical Depression 11W (Dianmu) is now active in the western Pacific, located about 62 NM north-northwest of Haikou, China…here’s the JTWC graphical track map, with a satellite image…and what the computer models show
Tropical Storm 12W is now active in the western Pacific, located about 522 NM east-southeast of Yokosuka, Japan…here’s the JTWC graphical track map, with a satellite image…and what the computer models show
>>> South Pacific Ocean: No active tropical cyclones
>>> North and South Indian Oceans / Arabian Sea: No active tropical cyclones
Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
Interesting: A surge in major wildfire events in the U.S. West, as a consequence of climate change, will expose tens of millions of Americans to higher levels of air pollution in the coming decades…according to a new Yale-led study conducted with collaborators from Harvard – The researchers estimated air pollution from past and projected future wildfires in 561 western counties, and found that by mid-century more than 82 million people will experience “smoke waves,” or consecutive days with high air pollution related to fires.
The regions likely to receive the highest exposure to wildfire smoke in the future include northern California, western Oregon, and the Great Plains.
Their results, published in the journal Climatic Change, point to the need for new or modified wildfire management and evacuation programs in the nation’s high-risk regions, said Jia Coco Liu, a recent Ph.D. graduate at the Yale School of Forestry & Environmental Studies (F&ES) and lead author of the study.
“Our study illustrates that smoke waves are likely to be longer, more intense, and more frequent under climate change,” Liu said. “This raises critical health, ecological, and economic concerns. Identifying communities that will be most affected in the future will inform development of fire management strategies and disaster preparedness programs.”
Other authors include Michelle Bell, the Mary E. Pinchot Professor of Environmental Health at F&ES; Keita Ebisu, a former doctoral student with Dr. Bell; as well as colleagues at Harvard, Colorado State University, and the University of Michigan.
Smoke from wildfires, which are becoming more frequent and intense in the U.S. West as the climate changes, contains large amounts of fine particulate matter, or PM2.5, which can have profound impacts on human health.
But while wildfires are estimated to contribute about 18 percent of the total PM2.5 emissions in the U.S., many questions remain on how these emissions will affect human populations, including how overall air quality will be affected, how these levels will change under climate change, and which regions are to most likely to be impacted.
Using sophisticated atmospheric and climate models, the researchers estimated the levels of PM2.5 directly attributable to wildfires during a recent six-year period, 2004 to 2009, as well as under projected future climate change conditions (2046-2051).
Twenty counties that are currently free from smoke waves are expected to experience at least one in the future six-year period. The length of the smoke wave season, the period between the first and last smoke wave day, is estimated to increase by an average of 15 days in more than 62.5 percent of the counties.
About 56 percent of the counties currently affected by smoke waves — including most located in the forests of the northern Rocky Mountains and coastal counties — will likely face more intense smoke waves in the future. (About 19 percent will have less intense smoke waves.)
The researchers also developed an interactive map to illustrate their findings.
“We hope these results will advance the understanding of the impacts of an increasing threat of wildfire smoke, and aid in the design of early warning systems, fire suppression policies and public health programs,” said Liu.
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