Air Temperatures – The following maxiumum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Sunday…along with the low temperatures Sunday:
82 – 71 Lihue, Kauai
87 – 75 Honolulu, Oahu
83 – 72 Molokai AP
86 – 73 Kahului AP, Maui
87 – 74 Kailua Kona
84 – 71 Hilo AP, Hawaii
Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands…as of Sunday evening:
0.56 Mount Waialeale, Kauai
0.96 Manoa Lyon Arboretum, Oahu
0.20 Puu Alii, Molokai
0.00 Lanai
0.00 Kahoolawe
1.01 West Wailuaiki, Maui
1.55 Kapapala Ranch, Big Island
The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph)…as of Sunday evening:
20 Port Allen, Kauai
27 Oahu Forest NWR, Oahu
13 Molokai
24 Lanai
25 Kahoolawe
24 Kapalua, Maui
22 Kealakomo, Big Island
Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 13,800 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. This web cam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon shining down during the night at times. Plus, during the nights you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise and sunset too…depending upon weather conditions.
Aloha Paragraphs
Hurricane Celia far to the east-southeast of Hawaii
Hurricane Celia…will strengthen to a category 2 system today
Hurricane Celia…with an impressive counterclockwise rotating cloud signature…with a cloud filled central eye
What the models are showing for Celia
We see what’s left of former tropical cyclone Agatha to the north-northeast of the islands / along with the outer field of clouds associated with former tropical cyclone Blas…well east-northeast – in addition to thunderstorms well southwest
Clear to partly cloudy in most areas…more clouds offshore
A few showers locally…mostly offshore – Looping radar image
~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~
The trade winds will turn lighter…as we move into the new week. Here’s the latest weather map, showing a strong, 1037 millibar high pressure system in the area far north of Hawaii. At the same time, we see an approaching trough of low pressure just to the northeast of the state. Our trade winds are expected to lose some of their strength as this trough of low pressure interrupts the trade flow to some extent.
Here’s a wind profile…of the offshore waters around the islands – with a closer view
Here’s the Hawaiian Islands Sulfate Aerosol animated graphic – showing vog forecast
There will be a few showers…although not many for the time being. There may be a few generous showers around locally, which may be triggered by a trough of low pressure moving closer to the state now. We may see a new batch of moisture arriving Tuesday, associated with now retired tropical cyclone Agatha. Further down the line, we may find leftover moisture from now retired tropical cyclone Blas as well, getting carried towards us later in this new week. We have an even longer wait to see what, if any, weather that Hurricane Celia may bring our way with time too…stay tuned.
Tropical Cyclones in the northeastern Pacific: We have the second hurricane of the 2016 season, in the form of Hurricane Celia, which will become a category 2 storm Monday. Looking at the latest computer model runs, they show Celia getting close to, or moving by not far to the north of the Hawaiian Islands around July 17-18. Meanwhile, there’s yet another tropical disturbance that will spin up in the eastern Pacific soon, which will be called Tropical Depression 05E, then Tropical Storm Darby. Computer models show that this area of disturbed weather will develop several hundred miles southwest of the coast of Mexico by Tuesday or sooner…and has the potential to intensify into a tropical storm and a hurricane later in the week. If not all that wasn’t enough, there’s another tropical disturbance that may generate into a tropical cyclone that has a 0% chance of developing over the next 2-days…increasing to 20% within 5-days.
Marine environment details: The swell generated by former Hurricane Blas continues to slowly decline. Surf along east facing shores is expected to remain below the advisory threshold for the next few days. Surf will likely build again along east facing shores in the second half of the week, as swell from Hurricane Celia reaches the islands. The current south swell continues to to lower…with a new small south swell expected Friday.
The trade winds have remain below the small craft advisory(SCA) threshold…for the next several days.
Here on Maui – Early Sunday morning is dawning mostly clear to partly cloudy…with more cloudy areas along the windward coasts and slopes. These clouds are dropping a few showers this morning as well. The air temperature was 55.7F degrees at 539am here at my place in upcountry Kula. Meanwhile, at about the same time, the Kahului airport was reporting clear skies, with a temperature of 73 degrees, while Hana was 75, with Maalaea Bay reporting 75 as well…and the summit of the Haleakala Crater was reporting a chilly 39 degrees. / Now at 850am, and the island has become nice and sunny, what a beautiful day!
– Sunday afternoon, with tons of bright blue skies near the beaches (at least the north shore), while up here at my place in Kula…it just started to rain a bit. It filled the air with that delicious small that seems to healthy to breathe in!
– Early evening, clear to partly cloudy in general, grading towards the end of another nice summer day.
World-wide tropical cyclone activity –
>>> Atlantic Ocean: No active tropical cyclones
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days
Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean
>>> Caribbean Sea: No active tropical cyclones
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days
>>> Gulf of Mexico: No active tropical cyclones
Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico
Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)
>>> Eastern Pacific:
Hurricane Celia remains active over the waters of the eastern Pacific, on a continued strengthening trend…located about 1150 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Here’s a satellite image of this hurricane…and what the computer models are showing.
1.) Satellite images indicate that the area of low pressure located about 350 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, has become better defined this morning. Associated shower and thunderstorm activity is showing some signs of organization, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or two while the low moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph, away from the coast of Mexico.
This tropical disturbance (marked by the X above) is being referred to as Invest 97E, and will become Tropical Depression 05E when it becomes a little more organized soon. Here’s a satellite image of this area…along with what the computer models are showing. By the way, as it strengthens, it will take on the name Tropical Storm Darby.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent
2.) An area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles south of the coast of Mexico later this week. Some subsequent development of this system is possible while it moves westward to west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent
Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.
Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)
>>> Central Pacific: No active tropical cyclones
No tropical cyclones expected through the next 2-days
Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)
>>> South Pacific Ocean: No active tropical cyclones
>>> North and South Indian Oceans / Arabian Sea: No active tropical cyclones
Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
Interesting: Where Did Earth’s Water Come From? – Look at Earth compared to other rocky planets in the neighborhood, and the first thing that would likely jump out is that there’s A LOT of water. So how did 70 percent of our planet’s surface become covered in this essential life ingredient?
That question is the subject of lively scientific debate, it turns out.
There are two prevailing theories: One is that the Earth held onto some water when it formed, as there would have been ice in the nebula of gas and dust (called the proto-solar nebula) that eventually formed the sun and the planets about 4.5 billion years ago. Some of that water has remained with the Earth, and might be recycled through the planet’s mantle layer, according to one theory.
The second theory holds that the Earth, Venus, Mars and Mercury would have been close enough to that proto-solar nebula that most of their water would have been vaporized by heat; these planets would have formed with little water in their rocks. In Earth’s case, even more water would have been vaporized when the collision that formed the moon happened. In this scenario, instead of being home-grown, the oceans would have been delivered by ice-rich asteroids, called carbonaceous chondrites.
Follow the water
Scientists can track the origin of Earth’s water by looking at the ratio of two isotopes of hydrogen, or versions of hydrogen with a different number of neutrons, that occur in nature. One is ordinary hydrogen, which has just a proton in the nucleus, and the other is deuterium, also known as “heavy” hydrogen, which has a proton and a neutron.
The ratio of deuterium to hydrogen in Earth’s oceans seems to closely match that of asteroids, which are often rich in water and other elements such as carbon and nitrogen, rather than comets. (Whereas asteroids are small rocky bodies that orbit the sun, comets are icy bodies sometimes called dirty snowballs that release gas and dust and are thought to be leftovers from the solar system’s formation.)
Scientists have also discovered opals in meteorites that originated among asteroids (they are likely pieces knocked off of asteroids). Since opals need water to form, this finding was another indication of water coming from space rocks. These two pieces of evidence would favor an asteroid origin. In addition, deuterium tends to gather farther out in the solar system than hydrogen does, so water formed in the outer regions of the system would tend to be deuterium-rich.
And on top of that, the rocky inner planets hold relatively little water (relative to their masses) compared with the icy moons of Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus and Neptune, and even the gas giants themselves. That would support the idea that in the inner system, the water evaporated, while in the outer system, it didn’t. If water evaporated on Earth it would have to be replaced from somewhere else, and water-rich asteroids are abundant in the outer reaches of the system.
More supporting evidence comes from NASA’s DAWN spacecraft, launched in 2007, which found evidence of water on Ceres and Vesta, the two largest objects in the main asteroid belt located between Mars and Jupiter.
Earth’s water is complicated
A slam dunk for asteroids? Not so fast. For this scenario to work, the isotope ratio had to have stayed the same in the oceans over the last few billion years.
But what if it didn’t?
Lydia Hallis, a planetary scientist with the University of Glasgow in the United Kingdom, thinks that the hydrogen present on the early Earth had much less deuterium in it than it does now. The ratio changed because in the early history of the Earth the radiation from the sun heated up both hydrogen and deuterium. Hydrogen, being lighter, was more likely to fly off into outer space, leaving more deuterium behind.
Also, in the last several years, newer models seem to show that the Earth retained a lot of water as it formed, and that the oceans might have been present for much longer than anyone thought.
Hallis and her colleagues looked at hydrogen isotope ratios in ancient Canadian rocks, some of the oldest rocks on Earth. The isotope ratios looked a lot less like asteroids and a lot more like the water one would expect from the early solar nebula in the region — the rocks had more ordinary hydrogen and less deuterium. But the current ocean ratio looks like asteroids. That would seem to indicate something changed in the last few billion years. The research was published in Science in 2015.
If the Earth’s oceans were formed from water on our own planet, rather than asteroids, that would solve a couple of problems for planetary scientists. One is why Earth seems to have so much water in the first place. Another is why life, which as far as anyone knows requires water, seems to have appeared so quickly once the Earth had a solid surface.
Besides the work of Hallis, other scientists have studied ways water could be recycled from Earth’s interior. In 2014, Wendy Panero, an associate professor of earth sciences at Ohio State, and doctoral student Jeff Pigott proposed the theory that Earth was formed with entire oceans of water in its interior. Via plate tectonics, that water has been supplying the oceans. They studied garnet, and found it could work with another mineral, called ringwoodite, to deliver water to the Earth’s interior – water that would later come up as the mantle material circulated.
Complicating the picture, neither of these hypotheses is mutually exclusive. Asteroids could deliver water while some could come from the Earth’s interior. The question is how much each would deliver — and how to find that out.
Email Glenn James: 
jo Says:
What’s the location of today’s photo. Thanks in advance.
Hi Jo, that is Turtle Bay, Oahu
Aloha, Glenn