Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Thursday…along with the low temperatures Thursday:

83 – 74  Lihue, Kauai
89 – 79  Honolulu, Oahu
86 – 76  Molokai AP
88 – 77  Kahului AP, Maui
87 – 77  Kailua Kona
86 – 73  Hilo AP, Hawaii

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands…as of Thursday evening:

0.35  Mount Waialeale, Kauai
0.04  Moanalua RG, Oahu
0.00  Puu Alii, Molokai
0.00  Lanai
0.00  Kahoolawe
0.32  West Wailuaiki, Maui
0.42  Kamuela, Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph)…as of Thursday evening:

24  Poipu, Kauai
33   Kuaokala, Oahu
35  Molokai
32  Lanai
40  Kahoolawe
44  Maalaea Bay, Maui
36  Kealakomo, Big Island

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 13,800 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. This web cam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon shining down during the night at times. Plus, during the nights you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise and sunset too…depending upon weather conditions.


Aloha Paragraphs

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High and middle level clouds riding across our skies at times

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/cpac/ir4.jpg
Thunderstorms offshore to the west through south of Hawaii

 

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/hi/ir4.jpg
Middle and high level clouds, dimming and filtering our Hawaiian sunshine at times Friday into the weekend…and beyond – plus giving us colorful sunset and sunrise colors

 

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Very few showers – Looping radar image

Small Craft Advisory…coastal and channel waters statewide

Gale Warning…typically windy zones around the Big Island and Maui County

Wind Advisory…windiest island areas

~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~

Solid trade wind flow across the state…increasing rather significantly into Friday and the weekend. Here’s the latest weather map, showing a high pressure system in the area northeast of Hawaii. During this second half of the week our trade winds are expected to increase in strength. We may see unusual gale force winds blowing across some marine zones…with possible wind advisories being issued over parts of the state as well. The trade winds are typical during our summer season here in the islands, although they don’t normally become as strong as what’s anticipated beginning Friday. I would expect winds to gust up over 40 mph, perhaps topping out close to 50 mph in those windier locations. These blustery conditions, coupled with the very limited rainfall, will keep our local fire danger will be elevated. Gusty trade winds will continue right on into next week.

Here’s a wind profile…of the offshore waters around the islands – with a closer view

Here’s the Hawaiian Islands Sulfate Aerosol animated graphic – showing vog forecast

There will be some passing showers, primarily focused along the windward sides…with much drier air moving over us into Saturday. The forecast continues to show showers arriving locally today. Distinctly drier conditions will tonight into the first part of the holiday weekend. This dry air had its origins in the desert southwest of the mainland, which is unusual! As we get into Sunday and the 4th of July holiday, we should see an increase in windward biased showers, although not exclusively…which could become numerous. This moisture will ride up over Hawaii from the deeper tropics to our southeast, bringing wet trade wind weather through the middle of next week.

The tropical ocean far to our east-southeast and east: Looking at the latest models showing the eastern Pacific, it appears that there will be at least one tropical cyclone spinning up over the next 3-5 days. I anticipate a tropical cyclone forming well offshore from Mexico, which will generally move northwestward.  The models show a tropical disturbance a bit further west of the first, which generally moves westward. However, this is certainly not a red flag by any means, as there is no threat to the Hawaiian Islands through the next week…at very least. The GFS model shows an area of tropical moisture coming up towards the state Sunday into the 4th of July holiday. This in turn could increase our showers then, with a second area of tropical moisture possible getting close later next week as well…stay tuned.

Marine environment details: A small craft advisory (SCA) is now in effect for all Hawaiian waters, and a gale warning will go into effect Friday morning for marine zones around Maui County and the Big Island, where winds are most accelerated by island terrain. These headlines will remain in place through at least Saturday, with SCA winds/seas prevailing through the bulk of the holiday weekend.

Surf is expected to remain below the high surf advisory criteria along all shorelines through Friday. The strong trade winds will drive an increase in short-period wind waves to the point that high surf is expected along east facing shores over the weekend and early next week. A high surf advisory is likely to be issued some time on Friday.

 

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Here on Maui – Early Thursday morning is dawning clear to partly cloudy, with the gloriously pink high cirrus clouds lighting up just before sunrise. The air temperature was 58.8F degrees at 539am. Meanwhile, at about the same time, the Kahului airport was reporting mostly cloudy skies, with a temperature of 77 degrees, while Hana was the same, as was Maalaea Bay…and the summit of the Haleakala Crater was reporting 46 degrees.

– Mid afternoon finds clouds have cleared quite a bit from this morning. It appears that that dry air from the east, has arrived. This signals a few days of drier than normal weather, with very limited rainfall everywhere in the state. There will likely be a couple of limited showers, restricted to the windward sides…generally during the night time hours. If you have something to do, that’s required dry weather, now through Saturday should be that time.

– Early evening finds dry weather over us, with some clouds…although not a shower in sight. If you like dry summer weather, the next couple of days will hit the mark for you, in no uncertain terms! Keep an eye out for some nice sunset colors this evening…and likely again for sunrise on Friday.

 

World-wide tropical cyclone activity –

 

>>> Atlantic Ocean: No active tropical cyclones

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days

Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean

>>> Caribbean Sea: No active tropical cyclones

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days

>>> Gulf of Mexico: No active tropical cyclones

Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Eastern Pacific: No active tropical cyclones

1.) A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south- southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for a tropical depression to form during the next several days while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, remaining well offshore of the coast of Mexico.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent

2.)  Shower activity associated with a low pressure area several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula has become better organized since yesterday, and satellite wind data indicate that the circulation has become better defined. Some additional development of this system is possible during the next couple days as it moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph. After that time, environmental conditions are expected to become less conducive for development.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent

Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Central Pacific: No active tropical cyclones

No tropical cyclones expected through the next 2-days

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

>>> Northwest Pacific Ocean: No active tropical cyclones

>>> South Pacific Ocean: No active tropical cyclones


>>> North and South Indian Oceans / Arabian Sea: No active tropical cyclones

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)


Interesting: Floating Solar: A Win-Win for Drought-Stricken Lakes in U.S. – The Colorado River’s two great reservoirs, Lake Mead and Lake Powell, are in retreat. Multi-year droughts and chronic overuse have taken their toll, to be sure, but vast quantities of water are also lost to evaporation. What if the same scorching sun that causes so much of this water loss were harnessed for electric power?

Installing floating solar photovoltaic arrays, sometimes called “floatovoltaics,” on a portion of these two reservoirs in the southwestern United States could produce clean, renewable energy while shielding significant expanses of water from the hot desert sun.

The dual energy and environmental benefits of floating solar arrays are already beginning to earn the technology a place in the global clean energy marketplace, with floatovoltaic projects now being built in places as diverse as Australia, Brazil, China, England, India, Japan, South Korea, and California. And nowhere could they prove as effective as on lakes Mead and Powell, the two largest man-made reservoirs in the U.S.

The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation estimates that 800,000 acre-feet of water – nearly six percent of the Colorado River’s annual flow – is baked off Lake Mead’s surface by the searing desert sun during an average year. Lake Powell loses about 860,000 acre-feet annually to evaporation and bank seepage. Since floatovoltaics can reduce evaporation in dry climates by as much as 90 percent, covering portions of these two water bodies with solar panels could result in significant water savings.

Extrapolating from the spatial needs of floating solar farms already built or designed, the electricity gains from installing floatovoltaics on just a fraction of these man-made desert lakes could be momentous. If 6 percent of Lake Mead’s surface were devoted to solar power, the yield would be at least 3,400 megawatts of electric-generating capacity – substantially more than the Hoover Dam’s generating capacity of 2,074 megawatts.

This solar infusion could give the power-hungry Southwest a major boost in renewable electricity, and at least some of that power could piggyback on underused transmission lines built for the Hoover Dam.

A key selling point of floatovoltaics is the extra energy punch they deliver when compared to terrestrial photovoltaics in a similar climate. Hovering just above sun-shaded lake water, the floating photovoltaic panels would operate at cooler temperatures than solar arrays on desert land – a key factor in improving the productivity of semiconductors, including PV cells. One project proponent expects a 50 percent boost in electricity per watt of installed power from her company’s planned solar arrays at a sun-saturated sewage treatment pond in Jamestown, South Australia.

In Nevada, Arizona, and Utah, those who enjoy boating, fishing, snorkeling, and swimming on Lake Mead and Lake Powell may not immediately embrace the idea of solar arrays competing with their recreational activities. Yet with beaches retreating and marinas stranded on dry land, the benefits of curbing water loss are becoming increasingly clear. Moreover, at a time when some hydrology experts and conservationists are saying that Lake Powell should be partially drained to restore Glen Canyon and salvage Lake Mead, which is about 360 miles downriver, building solar power on a portion of these ailing artificial lakes may seem like a smarter alternative.

Japan has been a pioneer in floatovoltaics. It began modestly, floating enough panels on two reservoirs in Hyogo Prefecture to meet the electricity needs of roughly 920 households. Now it is scaling up. On a reservoir in Chiba Prefecture, a plant slated for completion in 2018 will generate power for nearly 5,000 households. In Japan’s relatively mild climate, preventing evaporation may be less critical than in the American Southwest. But the prospect of tapping solar power without taxing scarce land resources has its own merits in a small, densely populated country that is searching — post-Fukushima — for alternatives to nuclear power.

Floating solar arrays also are being installed on a reservoir in the Brazilian Amazon. About 910 square miles of rainforest were flooded several decades ago when Brazil’s reigning military regime built the Balbina Dam, submerging millions of trees and destroying indigenous homes and hunting grounds. Today, due to persistent droughts and the languid flow of the river that feeds the Balbina Reservoir, the dam operates at only a fifth of its rated power capacity.

Soon, though, an expanding network of floating solar modules may help redeem this failed hydroelectric venture. In its pilot phase, a five-megawatt solar installation will cover an area equal to about five football fields and will generate enough power for roughly 9,000 households. Later, if all goes well, planners hope to build a massive 300-megawatt project that would produce enough electricity for about 540,000 Brazilian homes.

The list of pending or completed floatovoltaic projects goes on. In India, a pilot-scale installation has been successfully tested on a lake on the outskirts of Kolkata, and developers are negotiating for much larger floating solar plants on lakes in the state of Kerala. In California’s Sonoma County, sewage treatment ponds are now being equipped with floating PV arrays. And in the United Kingdom, Europe’s largest floating solar installation is nearing completion on the Queen Elizabeth II Reservoir outside London. Another is being built on a reservoir near Manchester. There, as in Japan, efficient use of available land resources is a key driver.

Though the U.S. Southwest is far less land-constrained than the U.K., the open desert is coming under increasing stress as solar developers seek suitable lands for their utility-scale projects. Protecting the desert tortoise has been a major concern at some sites, including two photovoltaic plants on Moapa Paiute tribal land in southeastern Nevada, just a few dozen miles from Lake Mead. In California, renewable energy advocates and conservationists have been at serious odds over the prospect of developing large solar sites in desert areas and adjacent lands in seven counties.

Floating solar arrays on reservoirs like Lake Mead and Lake Powell won’t supplant the need for land-based solar in California and other parts of the Southwest, but they can ease some of the pressure on fragile desert ecosystems.

As we confront the mounting impacts of global warming, maintaining a viable balance between water supply and demand in warmer climates will be especially challenging. In the sunny Southwest, reducing water losses to evaporation should be part of a wide-ranging water conservation strategy. Floating solar farms have a role to play, curbing water waste as they produce carbon-neutral power.