Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Tuesday…along with the low temperatures Tuesday:
81 – 72 Lihue, Kauai
88 – 73 Honolulu, Oahu
87 – 72 Molokai AP
91 – 68 Kahului AP, Maui – record high for the day 94…back in 1951
87 – 77 Kailua Kona
85 – 71 Hilo AP, Hawaii
Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands…as of Tuesday evening:
2.30 Mount Waialeale, Kauai
0.74 Manoa Lyon Arboretum, Oahu
0.10 Puu Alii, Molokai
0.00 Lanai
0.00 Kahoolawe
0.23 West Wailuaiki, Maui
0.44 Kapapala Ranch, Big Island
The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph)…as of Tuesday evening:
16 Port Allen, Kauai
29 Oahu Forest NWR, Oahu
24 Molokai
31 Lanai
31 Kahoolawe
29 Maalaea Bay, Maui
27 Pali 2, Big Island
Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 13,800 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. This web cam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon shining down during the night at times. Plus, during the nights you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise and sunset too…depending upon weather conditions.
Aloha Paragraphs
High cirrus clouds to our southwest…arriving over the state locally
High cirrus clouds…with thunderstorms well to the southwest
Clear with scattered low clouds over the islands…high cirrus clouds over the islands
Showers over the islands locally – Looping radar image
~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~
Gusty trade winds remaining active through the week…into early next week. Here’s the latest weather map, showing a very strong high pressure systems in the area north of Hawaii. This near 1041 millibar high pressure system is forecast to maintain both its presence, and its general strength for the time being. This will keep a steady supply of trade winds across our area through the next week…which is very common for the early summer season.
Here’s a wind profile…of the offshore waters around the islands – with a closer view
Here’s the Hawaiian Islands Sulfate Aerosol animated graphic – showing vog forecast
As usual, with the trade winds blowing…they’ll carry showers our way periodically. As the trade winds remain active…some showers may spread over into the leeward sides on the smaller islands. There will be periods of incoming showers, primarily focused along the windward sides…although not exclusively. This won’t be a steady stream of showers by any means, arriving in an off and on manner through the next week.
Marine environment details: All small craft advisory coastal and channel zones have been cancelled in regards to wind.
The current small to moderate south-southwest swell will continue to roll through the island chain, receiving reinforcing south to southwest swells into Thursday night. Surf along the south shores remains right on the cusp of a lower end high surf advisory tonight. The reinforcing swells will could potentially bump this value into the low end high surf Wednesday into Thursday. Surf will decline slightly into the weekend…before another round of near advisory level surf becomes possible later Sunday.
A moderate northeast swell is expected late Wednesday into the weekend, bumping surf up along exposed north and east facing shores. However…surf is expected to stay below advisory levels.
Beautiful island of Kauai
Here on Maui – Early Tuesday morning is dawning mostly clear, with just a few windward clouds. Looking out the windows of my weather tower before sunrise, these low clouds are stretching from the windward sides over the West Maui Mountains. The full moon is sinking down into the western horizon. There’s some high cirrus clouds to our north, which lit up a pretty orange color around sunrise. Finally, there’s some smoke from a sugar cane fire earlier this morning in the central valley. The air temperature was 55.4F degrees at 538am. Meanwhile, at about the same time, the Kahului airport was reporting clear skies, with a temperature of 68 degrees, while Hana was at 73, Maalaea Bay 72…with the summit of the Haleakala Crater registering 43 degree. / 835am, it’s a gorgeous day!
– Early afternoon, clouds have once again packed up against or over the mountains, while most beaches remain clear to partly cloudy. Case in point, the north shore is totally cloud free! / Now at 415pm, the clouds have cleared in many areas, although somewhat thicker high cirrus clouds are filtering in over the island. This suggests we’ll have some color at sunset.
– Early evening, a beautiful very early summer day! Again…look for some nice color at sunset.
World-wide tropical cyclone activity
>>> Atlantic Ocean: No active tropical cyclones
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days
Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean
>>> Caribbean Sea: No active tropical cyclones
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days
>>> Gulf of Mexico: No active tropical cyclones
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days
Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico
Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)
>>> Eastern Pacific: No active tropical cyclones
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days
Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.
Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)
>>> Central Pacific: No active tropical cyclones
No tropical cyclones expected through the next two days
Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)
>>> South Pacific Ocean: No active tropical cyclones
>>> North and South Indian Oceans / Arabian Sea: No active tropical cyclones
Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
Interesting: How China can ramp up wind power – China has an opportunity to massively increase its use of wind power…if it properly integrates wind into its existing power system, according to a newly published MIT study.
The study forecasts that wind power could provide 26 percent of China’s projected electricity demand by 2030, up from 3 percent in 2015. Such a change would be a substantial gain in the global transition to renewable energy, since China produces the most total greenhouse gas emissions of any country in the world.
But the projection comes with a catch. China should not necessarily build more wind power in its windiest areas, the study finds. Instead, it should build more wind turbines in areas where they can be more easily integrated into the operations of its existing electricity grid.
“Wind that is built in distant, resource-rich areas benefits from more favorable physical properties but suffers from existing constraints on the operation of the power system,” states Valerie Karplus, an assistant professor at the MIT Sloan School of Management, director of the Tsinghua-MIT China Energy and Climate Project, and a member of the MIT Energy Initiative. Those constraints include greater transmission costs and the cost of “curtailment,” when available wind power is not used.
The paper, “Integrating wind into China’s coal-heavy electricity system,” is appearing in Nature Energy. In addition to Karplus, the authors are Michael R. Davidson, a graduate student in MIT’s Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change and the MIT Institute for Data, Systems, and Society; Da Zhang, a postdoc in MIT’s Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change; and Weiming Xei and Xiliang Zhang of Tsinghua University. Karplus and Zhang are the corresponding authors of the paper, and lead an MIT-Tsinghua collaboration focused on managing energy and climate change in China.
Co-existing with coal
While China has invested heavily in renewable energy sources in recent years, more investment in the sector will be needed if the country is to meet its pledge of having 20 percent of its energy consumption come from non-fossil fuel sources by the year 2030, as part of the Paris climate agreement of 2015.
While several previous studies have evaluated China’s wind-energy potential based on the country’s natural environment, the MIT study is the first to study how wind energy could expand, based on simulations of China’s power system operations.
When operational constraints are considered, the MIT team found, China may only be able to use 10 percent of the physical potential for wind power cited in their analysis and other studies. Nevertheless, even harnessing that 10 percent would be enough for wind power to provide the study’s estimated 26 percent of electricity by 2030.
A key challenge the study identifies is integrating wind power into a system that has traditionally been geared toward consumption of coal. Wind power, being intermittent, currently requires flexibility in the operation of the electricity system to ensure wind can be used when it is available.
That, in turn, requires flexibility in the delivery of electricity from coal-fired power plants, which accounted for over 70 percent of electricity generated in China in 2015. However, China has regulations determining high minimum output levels for many coal-powered electricity plants, to ensure the profitability of those plants. Reducing these requirements and creating more flexible generation schedules for coal would create more space for wind power.
“Renewable energy plays a central role in China’s efforts to address climate change and local air quality,” Da Zhang explains. “China plans to substantially increase the amount of wind electricity capacity in the future, but its utilization — and ultimately its contribution to these environmental goals — depends on whether or not integration challenges can be solved.”
New policies possible?
As the researchers see it, new policies can help create the conditions for increased use of wind power — but may be difficult to implement. As Davidson notes, “establishing regulatory structures and policy incentives to capture these benefits will be difficult in China because of legacy institutions.”
And as Karplus adds, current regulations have been designed to ensure profitability for power producers, rather than making them compete to lower costs. “Existing policies prioritize sharing benefits equally among participants rather than facing strict price competition,” she says. “As electricity demand growth has slowed in recent years, the limited size of the pie means sharper conflicts between wind and coal.”
To be sure, as Karplus notes, government planners in China have been experimenting with using energy markets that do not rely strictly on the system that uses a quota for coal power, but encourages competition for long-term contracts to deliver coal-based electricity, while creating additional markets for flexible operation.
Such market mechanisms could prove beneficial to renewable energy sources, principally wind and solar power. As Karplus concludes: “Our work shows the value of continuing these reforms, including introducing markets and relaxing the administrative constraints … for China’s ability to utilize its present and future wind capacity to the fullest.”
Email Glenn James: 
