Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Saturday…along with the low temperatures Saturday:
81 – 72 Lihue, Kauai
85 – 73 Honolulu, Oahu
83 – 72 Molokai AP
86 – 68 Kahului AP, Maui
86 – 74 Kailua Kona
84 – 71 Hilo AP, Hawaii
Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands…as of Saturday evening:
2.06 Mount Waialeale, Kauai
0.74 Nuuanu Upper, Oahu
0.10 Makapuapai, Molokai
0.00 Lanai
0.00 Kahoolawe
0.45 Hana AP, Maui
0.37 Mountain View, Big Island
The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph)…as of Saturday evening:
28 Port Allen, Kauai
31 Kuaokala, Oahu
24 Molokai
27 Lanai
30 Kahoolawe
33 Maalaea Bay, Maui
30 Kealakomo, Big Island
Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 13,800 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. This web cam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon shining down during the night at times. Plus, during the nights you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise and sunset too…depending upon weather conditions.
Aloha Paragraphs
Low pressure system far northeast of Hawaii…with
its trailing cold front
An elongated zone of thunderstorms south of the islands
Clouds locally over the islands, rainy clouds east
and northeast…with some thunderstorms near
the eastern islands
Showers locally…mostly along the windward sides on
the east side of the state – Looping radar image
High Surf Advisory…south facing shores this weekend
Small Craft Advisory…Maalaea Bay, Pailolo and
Alenuihaha Channels, leeward and southeast
waters of the Big Island – starting this afternoon
~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~
Moderately strong trade winds will continue…then stronger starting Monday. Here’s the latest weather map, showing moderately strong high pressure systems north-northwest and north-northeast of Hawaii. There’s a surface trough of low pressure just to the east of Hawaii, which will be migrating closer to the state over the next few days. The latest forecast suggests we’ll see a minor easing of our trades Sunday. This will occur as the trough gets closer, then picking up a notch or two Monday…through most of the new week ahead.
Here’s a wind profile…of the offshore waters around the islands – with a closer view
Here’s the Hawaiian Islands Sulfate Aerosol animated graphic – showing vog forecast
Off and on showers, mostly along the windward sides Sunday…into the first part of the new week. The atmosphere will become shower prone and unstable, leading to more widespread shower activity now into Monday. This unsettled situation will result in localized downpours, at least locally…with even the chance of a few thunder claps. These showers may become robust enough to cause localized flooding problems at times. The name of the game will be wet trade winds, bringing showers to the windward sides, quite numerous once they get started. As the trade winds pick further…some of these showers will spread over into the leeward sides locally as well.
Marine environment details: The latest buoy observations show the long period south swell that was generated last week in the south Pacific, continues to affect the island waters. This southerly swell will periodically be reinforced by new swells originating from the south Pacific through the middle of next week, resulting in elevated surf along the south shores of all islands. The current high surf advisory remains in effect through Sunday for south facing shores of all islands, but this may need to be extended through early next week. As trade winds strengthen early next week, expect an increase in the choppy wind driven waves along east facing shores, and peak surf heights will likely approach the high surf advisory threshold.
Trade winds are locally breezy, but are currently below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) speeds. Strong high pressure building well north of the area Sunday night and Monday, will require a SCA for at least windy areas around Maui County and the Big Island, and potentially other zones as well. This will remain the case for most of next week.
A large south swell will translate to rising surf along
south facing shores, peaking tonight through Sunday
night…then gradually trending down by the middle
portion of the new week ahead
Here on Maui – Early Saturday morning is dawning mostly clear, with the usual windward clouds and a few showers. Looking out the windows of my weather tower before sunrise, these low clouds are stretching from the windward sides over the West Maui Mountains. The leeward sides are mostly clear, with just a few exceptions. The air temperature was 54.8F degrees at 537am. Meanwhile, at about the same time, the Kahului airport was reporting partly cloudy skies, with a temperature of 71 degrees, while out in Hana it was 72, 75 at Maalaea Bay…and the summit of the Haleakala Crater registering 43 degrees.
– Late afternoon, areas of clouds around, gathering most effectively along the windward sides…and around and over the mountains. There appear to be a few showers falling from Makena and a ways offshore from there, and along the windward coasts and slopes locally too.
– Early evening, and the atmosphere is looking more shower prone, with some showers starting to pop up in more places. I’m heading down to the Maui Arts and Cultural Center this evening, as they are having a good dance. I’ve been to these types of dance occasions before…and they’re fun! / Now 1205am Sunday morning, just got back from the fabulous dance party at the MACC. It was a wonderful dance, and as far as grades go, I’d say it qualified as B+ to -A in terms of music and room to dance. There were certainly some good dancers on the floor, really good!
Friday Evening Film: Jeff just flew in from the mainland, but was up for a film, so we headed downtown for dinner and to take in a new flick. This time we saw the one called Now You See Me 2, starring Jesse Eisenberg, Mark Ruffalo, Woody Harrelson, Dave Franco, Lizzy Caplan, Daniel Radcliffe, Justine Wachsberger, Morgan Freeman, Michael Caine, Sanaa Lathan...among many others.
The synopsis: the Four Horsemen (Jesse Eisenberg, Woody Harrelson, Dave Franco, Lizzy Caplan) return for a second mind-bending adventure, elevating the limits of stage illusion to new heights and taking them around the globe. One year after outwitting the FBI and winning the public’s adulation with their Robin Hood-style magic spectacles, the illusionists resurface for a comeback performance in hopes of exposing the unethical practices of a tech magnate. The man behind their vanishing act is none other than Walter Mabry (Daniel Radcliffe), a tech prodigy who threatens the Horsemen into pulling off their most impossible heist yet. Their only hope is to perform one last unprecedented stunt to clear their names and reveal the mastermind behind it all.
By the way, despite all the famous actors in this film, the critics weren’t being very generous, apparently not all that impressed with the film. This was one of the first films that I’ve see lately, that the theater, the largest one at this particular complex…had every seat filled. Thus, the general audience had pretty high expectations it seemed. As Jeff mentioned afterwards, he was entertained, although for me, it was a bit thin and too scattered. I have to say I wasn’t all that impressed, and I actually dozed off briefly a couple of times, which is unusual for me. As one critic said, “Despite some entertaining moments, Now You See Me 2 is largely an exercise of style over substance when it’s all said and done.” I had hoped for more, and I came up short, mustering up a solid B grade at best. As for Jeff, he was more taken, turning over a B+ rating. If you’re interested, here’s the trailer for this film…being billed as a mystery filled with suspense.
World-wide tropical cyclone activity:
>>> Atlantic Ocean: No active tropical cyclones
Here’s the 5-day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean
>>> Caribbean Sea: No active tropical cyclones
>>> Gulf of Mexico: No active tropical cyclones
Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico
Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)
>>> Eastern Pacific: No active tropical cyclones
An area of low pressure is expected to develop south of the coast of southern Mexico in a couple of days in association with a tropical wave that is currently located south of Guatemala. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form later this week while the disturbance moves westward or west- northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent
Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.
Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)
>>> Central Pacific: No active tropical cyclones
No tropical cyclones expected through the next two days…
Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)
>>> South Pacific Ocean: No active tropical cyclones
>>> North and South Indian Oceans / Arabian Sea: No active tropical cyclones
Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
Interesting: NOAA, USGS, partners predict an average ‘dead zone’ for the Gulf of Mexico – Scientists forecast that this year’s Gulf of Mexico dead zone–an area of low to no oxygen that can kill fish and marine life – will be approximately 5,898 square miles or about the size of Connecticut, the same range as it has averaged over the last several years.
The dead zone in the Gulf of Mexico affects nationally important commercial and recreational fisheries. Hypoxic zones or “dead zones” are caused by high levels of nutrients, primarily from activities such as industrialized agriculture and inadequate wastewater treatment.
The low oxygen levels cannot support most marine life and habitats in near-bottom waters. Organisms that can flee the dead zones leave the area, while others which cannot leave are stressed or die of suffocation. Reducing nutrients flowing to the Gulf would help the situation since, under normal conditions, this area contains a diversity of marine life, critical habitats, and a number of key fisheries.
“Dead zones are a real threat to Gulf fisheries and the communities that rely on them,” said Russell Callender, Ph.D., assistant NOAA administrator for the National Ocean Service. “We’ll continue to work with our partners to advance the science to reduce that threat. One way we’re doing that is by using new tools and resources, like better predictive models, to provide better information to communities and businesses.”
The NOAA-sponsored Gulf of Mexico hypoxia forecast is improving due to advancements of individual models and an increase in the number of models used for the forecast. Forecasts based on multiple models are called ensemble forecasts and are commonly used in hurricane and other weather forecasts.
This year marks the second year that a four-model forecast has been used. The four individual model predictions ranged from 5,204 to 6,823 square miles, and had a collective predictive interval of 3,200 to 8,597 square miles. The forecast assumes typical weather conditions, and the actual dead zone could be disrupted by hurricanes or tropical storms. Data from these four models are used to determine and meet the nutrient reduction targets set by the interagency Mississippi River/Gulf of Mexico Watershed Nutrient Task Force.
The ensemble of models was developed by NOAA-sponsored modeling teams and researchers at the University of Michigan, Louisiana State University, Louisiana Universities Marine Consortium, Virginia Institute of Marine Sciences/College of William and Mary, Texas A&M University, North Carolina State University, and the United States Geological Survey. The hypoxia forecast is part of a larger NOAA effort to deliver ecological forecasts that support human health and well-being, coastal economies, and coastal and marine stewardship.
The Gulf of Mexico hypoxia forecast is based on nutrient runoff and river and stream data from USGS. USGS estimates that 146,000 metric tons of nitrate and 20,800 metric tons of phosphorus flowed down the Mississippi and Atchafalaya rivers into the Gulf of Mexico in May 2016. This is about 12 percent above the long-term (1980-2015) average for nitrogen, and 25 percent above the long-term average for phosphorus.
USGS operates more than 2,700 real-time stream gauges, 60 real-time nitrate sensors, and collects water quality data at long-term stations throughout the Mississippi River basin to track how nutrient loads are changing over time.
“By expanding the real-time nitrate monitoring network with partners throughout the basin, USGS is improving our understanding of where, when, and how much nitrate is pulsing out of small streams and large rivers and ultimately emptying to the Gulf of Mexico,” said Sarah J. Ryker, Ph.D., acting deputy assistant secretary for water and science at the Department of the Interior. “The forecast puts these data to additional use by showing how nutrient loading fuels the hypoxic zone size.”
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