Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Friday…along with the low temperatures Friday:

82 – 71  Lihue, Kauai
84 – 72  Honolulu, Oahu
84 – 72  Molokai AP
87 – 72  Kahului AP, Maui
86 – 75  Kailua Kona
82 – 71  Hilo AP, Hawaii

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands…as of Friday evening:

1.14  Mount Waialeale, Kauai
0.60  Manoa Lyon Arboretum, Oahu
0.18  Puu Alii, Molokai
0.00  Lanai
0.00  Kahoolawe
1.14  West Wailuaiki, Maui
1.46  Piihonua, Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph)…as of Friday evening:

30  Port Allen, Kauai
38  Oahu Forest NWR, Oahu
25  Molokai
29  Lanai
32  Kahoolawe
23  Kapalua, Maui
29  Kealakomo, Big Island

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 13,800 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. This web cam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon shining down during the night at times. Plus, during the nights you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise and sunset too…depending upon weather conditions.


Aloha Paragraphs

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_ir_enh_west_loop-12.gif
Low pressure system far northeast of Hawaii…with
its trailing cold front

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/cpac/ir4.jpg
Thunderstorms west, east and south of the islands

 

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/hi/ir4.jpg
Clouds heading towards the windward sides…less
so for the leeward sides tonight

 

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/RadarImg/hawaii.gif
Showers locally…mostly taking aim on the windward sides
Looping radar image

 

High Surf Advisory…south facing shores this weekend



~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~

Trade winds will continue through the weekend…into next week. Here’s the latest weather map, showing a moderately strong high pressure system north-northeast of Hawaii. There’s a surface trough of low pressure not far offshore to the east of Hawaii, which will be migrating towards the state. The latest forecast suggests we’ll see a minor easing of our trades during the weekend. This will occur as the trough gets closer…then back to the moderate or even stronger levels through next week.

Here’s a wind profile…of the offshore waters around the islands – with a closer view

Here’s the Hawaiian Islands Sulfate Aerosol animated graphic – showing vog forecast

Increasing showers during the weekend…into early next week. As we get into the weekend, we’ll find an increase in showers, mostly over the windward sides…although not exclusively. The atmosphere will become shower prone and unstable, leading to possible widespread shower activity. This unsettled situation will result in localized downpours…with even the chance of thunderstorms Sunday into early next week. These showers may become robust enough to cause localized flooding problems at times.

Marine environment details: Trade winds have diminished enough to allow the Small Craft Advisory (SCA) to be dropped for all marine areas. Conditions are then supposed to remain below SCA thresholds through Sunday morning. The forecast models continue to indicate strengthening trades by late Sunday, so expect SCA conditions to return to the typically windy waters adjacent to the islands of Maui County and the Big Island by Sunday night. The SCA conditions will likely continue through most of next week.

A series of southerly swells will bring elevated surf along the south facing shores of the state into early next week. A south swell is expected to arrive later tonight. This reinforcing south swell will peak this weekend, which is expected to cause surf to reach the high surf advisory criteria along south facing shores starting Saturday morning…and continuing through Sunday evening and likely longer.

The trades will also continue to produce rough surf along east facing shores this weekend. As the trades strengthen early next week, expect an increase in the choppy wind driven waves, with surf heights approaching the high surf advisory threshold along east facing shores of the state…starting late Monday or Tuesday.

 

 https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/564x/33/41/35/334135ccb6174d75fb850cf1c1949c1a.jpg
A large south swell will translate to rising surf along
south facing shores today, peaking tonight through
Sunday night…then gradually trending down by the
middle portion of the new week ahead


Here on Maui – Early Friday morning is dawning clear to partly cloudy, with the usual windward clouds and a few showers. Looking out the windows of my weather tower before sunrise, most of these low clouds are stretching from the windward sides over the West Maui Mountains. The leeward sides are mostly clear, with a good day on tap. The air temperature was 50.9F degrees at 611am. Meanwhile, at about the same time, the Kahului AP was reporting cloudy skies, with an air temperature of 74 degrees, while out in Hana it was 72, with 73 at Maalaea Bay…with the summit of the Haleakala Crater registering 45 degrees. 

– Early afternoon, partly to mostly cloudy up here in Kula, although the local beaches remain amazingly sunny! It definitely feels and looks like a summer day…despite the calendar still shows us in the late part of spring.

– Early evening, a nice day is winding down, as we head towards an unusually unsettled weather period…especially as we get into Sunday through next Tuesday. Meanwhile, if you go to the leeward beaches this weekend, please be careful of the rising large surf. 

 

Friday Evening Film: Jeff just flew in from the mainland, but is up for a film, so we’ll head downtown for dinner and to take in a new flick. This time it’s one called Now You See Me 2, starring Jesse Eisenberg, Mark Ruffalo, Woody Harrelson, Dave Franco, Lizzy Caplan, Daniel Radcliffe, Justine Wachsberger, Morgan Freeman, Michael Caine, Sanaa Lathan…among many others.

The synopsis: The Four Horsemen(Jesse Eisenberg, Woody Harrelson, Dave Franco, Lizzy Caplan) return for a second mind-bending adventure, elevating the limits of stage illusion to new heights and taking them around the globe. One year after outwitting the FBI and winning the public’s adulation with their Robin Hood-style magic spectacles, the illusionists resurface for a comeback performance in hopes of exposing the unethical practices of a tech magnate. The man behind their vanishing act is none other than Walter Mabry (Daniel Radcliffe), a tech prodigy who threatens the Horsemen into pulling off their most impossible heist yet. Their only hope is to perform one last unprecedented stunt to clear their names and reveal the mastermind behind it all.

By the way, despite all the famous actors in this film, the critics weren’t being very generous, apparently not all that impressed with the film. This was one of the first films that I’ve see lately, that the theater, the largest one at this particular complex…had every seat filled. As Jeff mentioned afterwards, he was entertained, although for me, it was a bit thin and too scattered. I have to say I wasn’t all that impressed, and I actually dozed off briefly a couple of times, which is unusual for me. As one critic said, “Despite some entertaining moments, Now You See Me 2 is largely an exercise of style over substance when it’s all said and done.” I had hoped for more, and I came up short, mustering up a solid B grade at best. As for Jeff, he was more taken, turning over a B+ rating. If you’re interested, here’s the trailer for this film…being billed as a mystery filled with suspense.

 

World-wide tropical cyclone activity:

>>> Atlantic Ocean: No active tropical cyclones

Here’s the 5-day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean

>>> Caribbean Sea: No active tropical cyclones

>>> Gulf of Mexico: No active tropical cyclones

Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Eastern Pacific: No active tropical cyclones

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Central Pacific: No active tropical cyclones

No tropical cyclones expected through the next two days…

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

>>> Northwest Pacific Ocean: No active tropical cyclones

>>> South Pacific Ocean: No active tropical cyclones


>>> North and South Indian Oceans / Arabian Sea: No active tropical cyclones

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)


Interesting: NOAA, USGS, partners predict an average ‘dead zone’ for Gulf of Mexico – Scientists forecast that this year’s Gulf of Mexico dead zone–an area of low to no oxygen that can kill fish and marine life – will be approximately 5,898 square miles or about the size of Connecticut, the same range as it has averaged over the last several years.

The dead zone in the Gulf of Mexico affects nationally important commercial and recreational fisheries. Hypoxic zones or “dead zones” are caused by high levels of nutrients, primarily from activities such as industrialized agriculture and inadequate wastewater treatment.

The low oxygen levels cannot support most marine life and habitats in near-bottom waters. Organisms that can flee the dead zones leave the area, while others which cannot leave are stressed or die of suffocation. Reducing nutrients flowing to the Gulf would help the situation since, under normal conditions, this area contains a diversity of marine life, critical habitats, and a number of key fisheries.

“Dead zones are a real threat to Gulf fisheries and the communities that rely on them,” said Russell Callender, Ph.D., assistant NOAA administrator for the National Ocean Service. “We’ll continue to work with our partners to advance the science to reduce that threat. One way we’re doing that is by using new tools and resources, like better predictive models, to provide better information to communities and businesses.”

The NOAA-sponsored Gulf of Mexico hypoxia forecast is improving due to advancements of individual models and an increase in the number of models used for the forecast. Forecasts based on multiple models are called ensemble forecasts and are commonly used in hurricane and other weather forecasts.

This year marks the second year that a four-model forecast has been used. The four individual model predictions ranged from 5,204 to 6,823 square miles, and had a collective predictive interval of 3,200 to 8,597 square miles. The forecast assumes typical weather conditions, and the actual dead zone could be disrupted by hurricanes or tropical storms. Data from these four models are used to determine and meet the nutrient reduction targets set by the interagency Mississippi River/Gulf of Mexico Watershed Nutrient Task Force.

The ensemble of models was developed by NOAA-sponsored modeling teams and researchers at the University of Michigan, Louisiana State University, Louisiana Universities Marine Consortium, Virginia Institute of Marine Sciences/College of William and Mary, Texas A&M University, North Carolina State University, and the United States Geological Survey. The hypoxia forecast is part of a larger NOAA effort to deliver ecological forecasts that support human health and well-being, coastal economies, and coastal and marine stewardship.

The Gulf of Mexico hypoxia forecast is based on nutrient runoff and river and stream data from USGS. USGS estimates that 146,000 metric tons of nitrate and 20,800 metric tons of phosphorus flowed down the Mississippi and Atchafalaya rivers into the Gulf of Mexico in May 2016. This is about 12 percent above the long-term (1980-2015) average for nitrogen, and 25 percent above the long-term average for phosphorus.

USGS operates more than 2,700 real-time stream gauges, 60 real-time nitrate sensors, and collects water quality data at long-term stations throughout the Mississippi River basin to track how nutrient loads are changing over time.

“By expanding the real-time nitrate monitoring network with partners throughout the basin, USGS is improving our understanding of where, when, and how much nitrate is pulsing out of small streams and large rivers and ultimately emptying to the Gulf of Mexico,” said Sarah J. Ryker, Ph.D., acting deputy assistant secretary for water and science at the Department of the Interior. “The forecast puts these data to additional use by showing how nutrient loading fuels the hypoxic zone size.”