Hawaiian Islands Weather Details & Aloha Paragraphs / May 16-17, 2016

Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Monday…and the low temperatures Monday:

83 – 75  Lihue, Kauai
87 – 75  Honolulu, Oahu
82 – 72  Molokai AP
87 – 68  Kahului AP, Maui
85 – 74  Kailua Kona
85 – 68  Hilo AP, Hawaii

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands…as of Monday afternoon: (current updated rainfall data unavailable)

0.35  Moloaa Dairy, Kauai
0.08  Hakipuu Mauka, Oahu
0.01  Puu Alii, Molokai
0.00  Lanai
0.00  Kahoolawe
0.03  West Wailuaiki, Maui
0.25  Saddle Quarry, Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph)…as of Monday afternoon: (current updated wind data unavailable)

23  Port Allen, Kauai – ENE
23  Kuaokala, Oahu – NE
27  Molokai – NE
27  Lanai – ENE
36  Kahoolawe – NE
35  Kaupo Gap, Maui – NNE
31  Upolu AP, Big Island – NE

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 13,800 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. This web cam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon shining down during the night at times. Plus, during the nights you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise and sunset too…depending upon weather conditions.

Aloha Paragraphs

Low pressure system over the ocean far to the northeast and
northwest…with their frontal cloud bands draping southwest 

Thunderstorms far south and west of the islands

A mix of multi-level clouds…the higher ones are brighter white

A few showers falling locally – Looping radar image

Small Craft Advisory…Kauai northwest waters, Kauai leeward waters,
Kauai Channel, Oahu windward and leeward waters, Kaiwi Channel,
Maui County windward waters, Maalaea Bay, Pailolo and Alenuihaha
Channels, Big Island leeward and southeast waters

~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~

Moderately strong trade winds through mid-week, weakening slightly through Friday…and then picking up again by the weekend. Here’s the latest weather map, showing moderately strong high pressure systems to the northwest, north and northeast of Hawaii…with a ridge of high pressure northeast of the islands. At the same time, there’s a gale low pressure system far north-northeast of the state, with its comma shaped cold front draping southwest from its center. Finally, there’s a surface trough of low pressure offshore to the northwest of the state. As we move through this new week, the trades will continue…with some strengthening and weakening along the way.

Here’s a wind profile…of the offshore waters around the islands – with a closer view

Here’s the Hawaiian Islands Sulfate Aerosol animated graphic – showing vog forecast

Clouds and showers will focus primarily across the windward and mountain areas this week. The trade winds will moderately strong and gusty into mid-week, carrying some passing showers to the windward sides. The leeward sides of the islands should be in good shape, with just a few showers here and there. During the second half of this work week, a trough of low pressure, and a surface cold front, will edge in closer to our northwest, which could increase shower activity to some degree, mainly for windward and mountain areas…although not exclusively. As this trough moves away by the weekend, our trade winds will pick up, with a fairly normal trade wind weather pattern returning into early next week.

Marine environment details: There will be a series of small south swells through Tuesday, with a slightly larger south swell expected to arrive on Wednesday. This swell will peak on Thursday then lower gradually Friday and Saturday. Strengthening trade winds this week will cause an increase in choppy surf along our windward shores. No other significant swells are expected.

Trade winds will begin to strengthen today as high pressure builds in to our north. A small craft advisory is posted for the typically windy waters around Maui County and the Big Island. These stronger winds will linger into Wednesday, with a slight downward trend Thursday and Friday…as a trough of low pressure northwest of the area weakens the pressure gradient.

  
Waikiki Beach…Oahu

Here on Maui – Before sunrise on this Monday morning, we find partly cloudy skies. The higher clouds over the state will light up a nice pink color this morning. Here at my place in Kula, it’s partly cloudy and calm, with an air temperature of 54.6F degrees at 530am. At about the same time, at the Kahului AP was reporting 72 degrees under partly cloudy skies, while Hana was registering 74 degrees…with 45 degrees atop the Haleakala Crater. / Now at 810am, skies are clear to partly cloudy, although clouds are quickly forming over and around the mountains.

– Mid-afternoon, under clear to partly cloudy skies, with the clouds ranging between high, middle and low…in terms of altitude.

– Early evening, under partly cloudy skies, with the good possibility of the high cirrus clouds…giving us good color at sunset.

A quieter hurricane season likely for Hawaii – Hawaii, which has been busy during the past two hurricane seasons, with one direct hit by a tropical storm (Iselle in 2014) and a number of close calls…should get a break during the upcoming hurricane season. About half as many named storms form in the Central Pacific in a La Niña year, compared to an El Niño year. Hawaii is about three times less likely to be impacted by a tropical cyclone in a La Niña vs. an El Niño year, according to Phil Klotzbach, a hurricane forecaster at Colorado State University.

We’ve already had one hurricane in the Central Pacific this year, category 2 Hurricane Pali, which became the earliest hurricane on record in the Central Pacific on January 11, 2016…and later dissipated on January 14. This storm was more a carry-over from the record-breaking Central Pacific hurricane season of 2015, though, which had exceptionally low wind shear and record-warm ocean temperatures.

In 2015, the Central Pacific had 14 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes form in, or track through the basin, all of which were new records. Between 1981 and 2010, the Central Pacific had an average of 3.4 named storms, 1.5 hurricanes, and 0.7 major hurricanes form or track through the basin per year. (Credit Dr. Jeff Masters)

World-wide tropical cyclone activity:

>>> Atlantic Ocean: The last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season…has occurred. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2016. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued if conditions warrant. Here’s the 2015 hurricane season summary

Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean

>>> Caribbean Sea: The last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season…has occurred. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2016. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued if conditions warrant.

>>> Gulf of Mexico: The last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season…has occurred. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2016. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued if conditions warrant.

Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Eastern Pacific:  No active tropical cyclones

Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Central Pacific: The central north Pacific hurricane season has officially ended. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on June 1, 2016. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued if conditions warrant. Here’s the 2015 hurricane season summary

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)