Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Sunday…and the low temperatures Sunday:
84 – 76 Lihue, Kauai
86 – 73 Honolulu, Oahu
88 – 68 Molokai AP
88 – 67 Kahului AP, Maui
85 – 76 Kailua Kona
85 – 68 Hilo AP, Hawaii
Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands…as of Sunday evening:
0.34 Moloaa Dairy, Kauai
0.17 Manoa Lyon Arboretum, Oahu
0.00 Puu Alii, Molokai
0.00 Lanai
0.00 Kahoolawe
0.05 Kula Branch Station, Maui
0.18 Puuanahulu, Big Island
The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph)…as of Sunday evening:
13 Poipu, Kauai – NE
17 Oahu Forest NWR Oahu – SW
23 Molokai – NE
27 Lanai – ENE
30 Kahoolawe – NE
20 Maalaea Bay, Maui – NW
25 South Point, Big Island – NNE
Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 13,800 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. This web cam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon shining down during the night at times. Plus, during the nights you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise and sunset too…depending upon weather conditions.
Aloha Paragraphs
Low pressure system over the ocean far to the north…
along with its frontal cloud band draping southwest –
lots of thunderstorms in the tropical eastern Pacific,
which may eventually become the season’s first
tropical cyclone
A large area of high and middle level clouds west…with
thunderstorms far southwest through south of the islands
A mix of multi-level clouds…arriving from the west
A few showers falling locally – Looping radar image
Small Craft Advisory…Maui County leeward and windward waters,
Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island windward and leeward waters
~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~
Stronger trade winds…as we get into the new week. Here’s the latest weather map, showing a near 1028 millibar high pressure system to the northeast…with an associated ridge north of the islands. At the same time, there’s a storm low pressure system to the north, with its comma shaped cold front. There are a couple of surface troughs of low pressure offshore to the east and just west too. As we move into the new week, the trades will strengthen again…with no distinct end in sight.
Here’s a wind profile…of the offshore waters around the islands – with a closer view
Here’s the Hawaiian Islands Sulfate Aerosol animated graphic – showing vog forecast
We’re heading back into a typical trade wind weather pattern. The trade winds will pick up tonight into Monday, carrying some passing showers to the windward sides. The leeward sides of the islands should be in good shape this coming week, with lots of daytime sunshine, prompting warm days…and pleasant weather in general. During the second half of the week, a frontal system will be approaching the area from the west. Models indicate an upper trough may be near the eastern end of the state, which could increase shower activity, mainly for windward and mountain areas.
Marine environment details: The current small northwest swell will continue to lower through Monday. There will be a series of small south swells through Tuesday, with a slightly larger south swell expected to arrive on Wednesday. This swell will peak on Thursday then lower gradually Friday and Saturday. Strengthening trade winds this week will cause an increase in choppy surf along the windward shores.
Trade winds will begin to pick up on Monday, as high pressure builds in to our north. Small craft advisory conditions are expected by Monday night over the typically windy waters around Maui County and The Big Island. These stronger winds will linger into the middle of the week…with a slight downward trend later in the week.
The Island of Kauai
Here on Maui – Before sunrise on this Sunday morning, we find clear to partly cloudy skies. The higher clouds over the state will light up a nice pink color this morning. Here at my place in Kula, it’s clear to partly cloudy and calm, with an air temperature of 52.7F degrees at 520am. At about the same time, at the Kahului AP was reporting 67 degrees under clear skies, while Hana was registering 75 degrees…with 48 degrees atop the Haleakala Crater.
– Early afternoon, lots of clouds in the upcountry areas, although sunshine prevails down near the beaches. The clouds up here in Kula aren’t looking or feeling as shower prone as the ones the last few days. I can hear my wind chimes sounding off more often today as well, telling me that perhaps the trade winds are trying to get going. I see that there are gusts up around 30 mph at both Kahoolawe and the Kahului AP this afternoon. It’s just a matter of time before we shift into a well established trade wind weather pattern statewide. / Now at 150pm, I’m seeing a couple of drops starting to fall, which were large enough that I heard them faintly splatting down on my weather deck…which caught my attention.
– Early evening, with clearing skies already, with still some partly cloudy areas locally. Shower activity was pretty minimal today, and most of the showers coming up over the next several days, will focus their efforts best along the windward sides. This is due to the soon to be increasing trade winds, which will be generally in the moderately strong realms. A fair amount of high and middle level clouds have snuck in over us, which may very well set the stage for a nice colorful sunset…keep an eye out.
A quieter hurricane season likely for Hawaii – Hawaii, which has been busy during the past two hurricane seasons, with one direct hit by a tropical storm (Iselle in 2014) and a number of close calls…should get a break during the upcoming hurricane season. About half as many named storms form in the Central Pacific in a La Niña year, compared to an El Niño year. Hawaii is about three times less likely to be impacted by a tropical cyclone in a La Niña vs. an El Niño year, according to Phil Klotzbach, a hurricane forecaster at Colorado State University.
We’ve already had one hurricane in the Central Pacific this year, category 2 Hurricane Pali, which became the earliest hurricane on record in the Central Pacific on January 11, 2016…and later dissipated on January 14. This storm was more a carry-over from the record-breaking Central Pacific hurricane season of 2015, though, which had exceptionally low wind shear and record-warm ocean temperatures.
In 2015, the Central Pacific had 14 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes form in, or track through the basin, all of which were new records. Between 1981 and 2010, the Central Pacific had an average of 3.4 named storms, 1.5 hurricanes, and 0.7 major hurricanes form or track through the basin per year. (Credit Dr. Jeff Masters)
Friday Evening Film: As is the case many times this year, there’s a good selection of films playing in Kahului. This time around, I chose the action and adventure filled Captain America: Civil War, starring Chris Evans, Robert Downey Jr., Scarlett Johansson, Sebastian Stan, Anthony Mackie, Don Cheadle, Jeremy Renner, Emily VanCamp, Paul Rudd, Elizabeth Olsen…among many others. The synopsis: Marvel’s “Captain America: Civil War” finds Steve Rogers leading the newly formed team of Avengers in their continued efforts to safeguard humanity. But after another incident involving the Avengers results in collateral damage, political pressure mounts to install a system of accountability, headed by a governing body to oversee and direct the team. The new status quo fractures the Avengers, resulting in two camps-one led by Steve Rogers and his desire for the Avengers to remain free to defend humanity without government interference, and the other following Tony Stark’s surprising decision to support government oversight and accountability.
This film was 2 1/2 hours long, and after 10 minutes or more of trailers before the feature began, it was a long time to be sitting in that theater seat. It was a huge film, a royale battle of the sides, with countless numbers of innocent bystanders who died in this major conflict! It was Captain America fighting against Iron Man, with quite a cast of supporting characters on both sides. It was an over the top superhero film, with humor and action vying for the audiences attention. I’m not typically crazy about superhero films, although Captain America turns out to be this wholesome, level headed guy, who is pretty likeable. In sum, it was a good film, not what I’d call a great film, although certainly entertaining, and then some. As far as a grade goes, I guess I come down in the B+ category, not just a B, although not an A minus either. If any of this sounds interesting, and prompts you to take a quick peek…here’s the trailer – the large view is always best.
World-wide tropical cyclone activity:
>>> Atlantic Ocean: The last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season…has occurred. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2016. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued if conditions warrant. Here’s the 2015 hurricane season summary
Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean
>>> Caribbean Sea: The last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season…has occurred. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2016. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued if conditions warrant.
>>> Gulf of Mexico: The last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season…has occurred. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2016. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued if conditions warrant.
Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico
Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)
>>> Eastern Pacific: No active tropical cyclones
Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.
Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)
>>> Central Pacific: The central north Pacific hurricane season has officially ended. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on June 1, 2016. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued if conditions warrant. Here’s the 2015 hurricane season summary
Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)
>>> South Pacific Ocean: No active tropical cyclones
>>> North and South Indian Oceans / Arabian Sea: No active tropical cyclones
Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
Interesting: Frequency of extreme heat waves on the increase in Africa: Could occur annually by 2040 – Longer, hotter, more regular heat waves could have a damaging effect on life expectancy and crop production in Africa warn climate scientists in a study published in the journal Environmental Research Letters. Examining temperature data from 1979 to 2015, the researchers caution that heat waves classified as unusual today could become a normal occurrence within 20 years. This scenario could be triggered by an increase in average global temperature of 2 degrees.
Risk all year round
Located between the Tropic of Cancer and the Tropic of Capricorn, Africa experiences high levels of solar radiation all year round and heat waves can occur in any season, not just during summer months. Running climate models through to 2075, the scientists found that so-called unusual heat waves could occur as frequently as four times per year towards the end of the century. In other words, one dangerously hot spell for every season of the year.
“Africa is one of the most vulnerable continents to climate change and even a modest rise in average global temperature could have severe consequences for the people living there,” said Jana Sillmann of the Center for International Climate and Environmental Research (CICERO), one of the institutions taking part in the study. “We need to put considerable effort into climate change adaptation to reduce the risk of extreme events such as heat waves, which are likely to occur much more frequently in the future.”
Analytical approach
To crunch the numbers, the team–which also includes researchers from the Institute for Environmental Protection and Research (ISPRA) and the University of Catania, both in Italy–uses a metric dubbed the Heat Wave Magnitude Index daily (HWMId). The data format takes into account the severity of the temperature extremes as well as the number of consecutive days of hot weather. Using this approach, the group can compare heat waves occurring in different places and at different times of the year, but there are other details to factor in.
“The severity of the impact on human mortality and crop production depends on the vulnerability of the communities affected and the environmental systems,” added Sillmann. “For example, the heat wave in Finland during 1972–which we have studied previously–was comparable to the period of hot weather occurring in Central Europe during 2003. However, the latter event was responsible for more deaths than the Finnish heat wave.”
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