Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Monday…along with the minimums Monday:
79 – 66 Lihue, Kauai
82 – 71 Honolulu, Oahu
80 – 63 Molokai AP
83 – 62 Kahului AP, Maui
84 – 70 Kona AP
88 – 64 Hilo, Hawaii – Broke the all time high (87) for the date…set back in 1977
Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands, as of Monday evening:
0.39 Kokee, Kauai
0.84 Poamoho RG 1, Oahu
0.35 Puu Alii, Molokai
0.01 Lanai
0.00 Kahoolawe
0.30 Kahakuloa, Maui
0.02 Pahala, Big Island
The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph)…as of Monday evening:
12 Waimea Heights, Kauai – SW
14 Kahuku, Oahu – N
13 Molokai – SE
14 Lanai – ESE
12 Kahoolawe – NW
15 Maalaea Bay, Maui – NE
25 Kealakomo, Big Island – ENE
Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 13,800 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. This web cam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon shining down during the night at times. Plus, during the nights you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise and sunset too… depending upon weather conditions.
Aloha Paragraphs
The Pacific storm track remains well north of Hawaii…
which is very typical of an El Nino winter
Here’s a wind profile…of the offshore waters
around the islands – with a closer view
The tail-end of a weak, fragmenting cold front is
near the Big Island and Maui…with considerable
clouds to our far south and north
Mostly clear to partly cloudy, with the leftover clouds from
the dissipating cold front here and there
Just a few showers around locally – looping radar image
High Surf Advisory…north and west shores of Kauai, Oahu and
Molokai / north shore of Maui /west shore of the Big Island
Small Craft Advisory…most coasts and channels from
Kauai down through the Big Island
~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~
Light winds will continue through most of this week…keeping volcanic haze around locally. Here’s the latest weather map, showing the Hawaiian Islands, and the rest of the North Pacific Ocean. We find a high pressure system well to our east-northeast, offshore from Southern California…with a ridge of high pressure extending southwest towards Hawaii. There’s a second weak high pressure cell located just to the north of Kauai too. Meanwhile, there’s deep low pressure systems far northeast through northwest of the islands…with an associated very weak cold front falling apart over the eastern islands of Hawaii. Our winds will be light, as a high pressure ridge remains in our vicinity through the week. The winds will grade back into the light and variable realms, with onshore daytime sea breezes, and offshore flowing land breezes at night. There’s a good chance that many days of this new week…will have volcanic haze as part of our Hawaiian Island weather picture.
A dissipating cold front is falling apart…near the Big Island and Maui. This front brought light showers to our area, getting as far into the state as east Maui and some parts of the Big Island. The bulk of this shower activity was focused over and along the north and northeast facing coasts and slopes…although not exclusively. The leeward sides of all the islands remained dry…although there were a few isolated showers there as well. Looking ahead, the models show a series of cold fronts moving by to our north during this new week. There’s always the chance that one of these will be pushed a little further south, which could bring a few showers our way Friday into the upcoming weekend, although generally dry conditions are expected throughout. During the days with lightest winds, which there will be many…there’s the chance we could see a few upcountry afternoon showers here and there.
Great caution should be exercised while on the north and west facing beaches…off and on through the next week. The latest guidance continues to show a large west-northwest to northwest swell spreading down across the Hawaiian waters. This swell will cause surf heights to be in the high surf warning thresholds along most north and west facing shores of Kauai, Oahu, Molokai and Maui…with a high surf advisory along the west shore of the Big Island. This swell will diminish slightly on Tuesday and Tuesday night, before the expected arrival of a potentially larger northwest swell early Wednesday. This swell will likely cause surf to again build to warning levels along north and west facing shores of most islands…from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday. The models are now showing yet another very large northwest swell arriving into the islands by the upcoming weekend.
Here in Maui County…It’s mostly clear early Monday morning before sunrise…with volcanic haze still in the air. Here in upcountry Kula we have an air temperature of 50.1F degrees at 550am. The temperature was 64 degrees down near sea level in Kahului, with 64 out in Hana, 54 at Kaupo Gap, 63 at Maalaea Bay…and 43 atop the Haleakala Crater at the same time. Meanwhile, Kahoolawe’s coolest temperature was 64 degrees, with 66 degrees at Lanai City, and 66 at the Molokai airport. / Now at 730am, there are low clouds, associated with the weak approaching cold front…that are pushing over Maui.
– It’s early afternoon, and this weak kneed cold front has slipped down over Maui County. The satellite images of this frontal cloud band look more impressive, than what I’m seeing here on the ground in upcountry Kula. I thought I’d drive up the mountain to skateboard this morning, and to watch the front arrive. I got several good runs in before the clouds closed in over me. One moment it was clear, although I could see some clouds coming, and the next moment, almost literally…the clouds and fog enveloped me! I got to get a few more runs down the hill before the fog made the road a little slick, so I had to shut down earlier than I would have otherwise. I’m back home now at 1250pm, and it’s partly cloudy, and there have been a couple of very light drops falling…although nothing even near like rain. / Now at 130pm, it’s very lightly showering, still not quite rain, but closer to it now. / 2pm and it’s chilly, and foggy…although the light showers have ended.
– Early evening, with clearing skies, at least here in upcountry Kula…although I can see clouds around the edges from here. Kula has had off and on clouds and fog, along with a few light showers. These clouds over Maui County where brought to us thanks to a weak cold front, which should be mostly gone by Tuesday. I got a report that there were even a few showers along our leeward beaches this afternoon. / Now at 6pm, there is a very light shower falling just before sunset here in Kula.
I’ll be back with many more updates on all of the above and below, I hope you have a great Monday night wherever you’re spending it! Aloha for now…Glenn
World-wide tropical cyclone activity:
>>> Atlantic Ocean: The last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season…has occurred. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2016. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued if conditions warrant. Here’s the 2015 hurricane season summary
Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean
>>> Caribbean Sea: The last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season…has occurred. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2016. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued if conditions warrant.
>>> Gulf of Mexico: The last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season…has occurred. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2016. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued if conditions warrant.
Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico
Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)
>>> Eastern Pacific: The last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of the 2015 North Pacific hurricane season…has occurred. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on May 15, 2016. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued if conditions warrant. Here’s the 2015 hurricane season summary
Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.
Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)
>>> Central Pacific: The central north Pacific hurricane season has officially ended. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on June 1, 2016. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued if conditions warrant. Here’s the 2015 hurricane season summary
Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)
>>> South Pacific Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones
>>> North and South Indian Oceans / Arabian Sea: There are no active tropical cyclones
Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
Interesting: Human impacts on climate caused record warm years – Recent record warm years are with extremely high likelihood caused by human-made climate change. Without greenhouse-gas emissions from burning coal and oil, the odds are small that 13 out of the 15 warmest years ever measured would all have happened in the current, still young century. These odds are between 1 in 5000 and 1 in 170.000, a new study by an international team of scientists now shows. Including the data for 2015, which came in after the study was completed, makes the odds even slimmer.
“2015 is again the warmest year on record, and this can hardly be by chance,” says co-author Stefan Rahmstorf of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. The scientists performed a sophisticated statistical analysis, combining observational data and comprehensive computer simulations of the climate system. Their new approach allowed them to better separate natural climate variability from human-caused climate change.
“Natural climate variability causes temperatures to wax and wane over a period of several years, rather than varying erratically from one year to the next,” says lead-author Michael Mann, distinguished professor of meteorology and director, Earth System Science Center, Penn State (US). “That makes it more challenging to accurately assess the chance likelihood of temperature records. Given the recent press interest, it just seemed like it was important to do this right, and address, in a defensible way, the interesting and worthwhile question of how unlikely it is that the recent run of record temperatures might have arisen by chance alone.”
Global warming increases risk of local heat extremes
The newly computed odds for experiencing the recent runs of record temperatures by chance, without accounting for human-caused greenhouse gases, are greater than odds previously reported in some media – between 1 in 27 million and 1 in 650 million – but they are still incredibly slim.
In contrast, taking human-caused global warming into account makes the recent record temperatures quite likely, as the study further shows. Rahmstorf sums up the findings: “Natural climate variations just can’t explain the observed recent global heat records, but man-made global warming can.” What is more, the anomalous global average warmth comes with substantial impacts. “It has led to unprecedented local heat waves across the world – sadly resulting in loss of life and aggravating droughts and wildfires,” says Rahmstorf. “The risk of heat extremes has been multiplied due to our interference with the Earth system, as our data analysis shows.”
Email Glenn James: 
