Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Sunday…along with the minimums Sunday:

83 – 67  Lihue, Kauai
81 – 69  Honolulu, Oahu
86 – 59  Molokai AP
88 – 61  Kahului AP, Maui – Tied the record set back in 1981
84 – 70  Kona AP
86 – 64  Hilo, Hawaii

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands, as of Sunday evening:

0.01  Lihue, Kauai
0.01  Makua Portable, Oahu
0.00  Puu Alii, Molokai
0.00  Lanai
0.00  Kahoolawe
0.03  Hana AP, Maui
0.00  Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph)…as of Sunday evening:

17  Poipu, Kauai – SW
15  Waianae Valley, Oahu – E
08  Molokai – NW
10  Lanai – SW
18  Kahoolawe – ESE
13  Maalaea Bay, Maui – NNE
24  PTA West, Big Island – NW

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 13,800 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. This web cam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon shining down during the night at times. Plus, during the nights you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise and sunset too… depending upon weather conditions.


Aloha Paragraphs

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_ir_enh_west_loop-12.gif
Winter storms remain well to our north…
moving west to east in the mid-latitudes

Here’s a wind profile…of the offshore waters
around the islands – with a closer view

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/cpac/vis.jpg
A weak, fragmenting cold front will move through the islands

 

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/hi/vis.jpg
Mostly clear over the state…with clouds from the
cold front reaching Kauai and then Oahu tonight

 

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/RadarImg/hawaii.gif
Just a few showers…focused over the western islands
looping radar image

High Surf Warning…north and west shores of Kauai,
Oahu, and Molokai, and north shore of Maui

High Surf Advisory…west shore of the Big Island of Hawaii

Small Craft Advisory…most coasts and channels from
Kauai down through the Big Island

Wind Advisory…summits on the Big Island of Hawaii

 

~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~



Lighter winds…trending southeast with volcanic haze locally. Here’s the latest weather map, showing the Hawaiian Islands, and the rest of the North Pacific Ocean. We find a high pressure system well to our northeast, moving away towards central California, with another high pressure cell to the west-northwest…with a ridge of high pressure over the central islands. Meanwhile, there’s a deep low pressure system far north of the islands, moving into the southern Gulf of Alaska…with an associated cold front approaching Hawaii. Our winds will diminish today, as a high pressure ridge gets pushed down over us, which is bringing volcanic haze (vog) our way again. This weak cold front will move through the state into Monday, first on Kauai, prompting a brief period of cool northerly breezes in its wake. The winds will shift back to light and variable, then to south and southeast…ahead of yet another weak cold front scheduled to approach, or arrive in our area later in the upcoming work week into next weekend. There’s a good chance that many days of the new week ahead, will be filled with volcanic haze.

The next cold front is reaching Kauai…passing down across the state into Monday. We see a weak cold front reaching Kauai Sunday evening…moving down through the island chain into Monday. This front should bring a period of light showers to our area, getting as far into the state as Maui, or the Big Island before stalling. The bulk of this shower activity will focus over and along the north and northeast facing coasts and slopes. Looking ahead, the models show a series of cold fronts moving by to our north during the new week. There’s always the chance that one of these will be pushed a little further south, which could bring a few showers our way, although generally dry conditions are expected. During the days with lightest winds, which there will be many…there’s the chance we could see a few upcountry afternoon showers here and there.

Great caution should be exercised while on the north and west facing beaches…off and on through the next week. The latest guidance continues to show a large west-northwest to northwest swell spreading down across the Hawaiian waters. This swell will cause surf heights to increase to the high surf warning thresholds along most north and west facing shores of Kauai, Oahu, Molokai and Maui…with a high surf advisory along the west shore of the Big Island. This swell will diminish slightly on Tuesday and Tuesday night, before the expected arrival of a potentially larger northwest swell early Wednesday. This swell will likely cause surf to again build to warning levels along north and west facing shores of most islands…from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday. The models are now showing yet another very large northwest swell arriving into the islands by the upcoming weekend.

Here in Maui County…It’s partly cloudy early Sunday morning before sunrise…with thick volcanic haze in the air. The near full moon is setting into this vog, gradually turning it orange in the process. Here in upcountry Kula we have an air temperature of 53.7F degrees at 615am. The temperature was 63 degrees down near sea level in Kahului, with 70 out in Hana, 55 at Kaupo Gap, 64 at Maalaea Bay…and 41 atop the Haleakala Crater at the same time. Meanwhile, Kahoolawe’s coolest temperature was 66 degrees, with 66 degrees at Lanai City, and 61 at the Molokai airport. / Now at 850am, skies have cleared of clouds…although the vog remains in place. / 1125am finds north to northeasterly breezes kicking up some, although it seems to be having a tough time ventilating away the vog so far.

– We’re into the middle of the afternoon, under clear to partly cloudy skies, along with the thick volcanic haze.

– We’re into the early evening hours now, under mostly clear skies…with somewhat less volcanic haze than earlier in the day.

Friday Evening Film: Once again, there are many films that are playing now, several of which I’m greatly looking forward to viewing! This evening I’ve picked one called Joy, starring Jennifer Lawrence, Robert De Niro, Bradley Cooper, Virginia Madsen, Diane Ladd, and Edgar Ramirez…among many others. The synopsis: Joy is the wild story of a family across four generations centered on the girl who becomes the woman who founds a business dynasty, and becomes a matriarch in her own right. Betrayal, treachery, the loss of innocence and the scars of love, pave the road in this intense emotional and human comedy about becoming a true boss of family, and enterprise facing a world of unforgiving commerce. Allies become adversaries and adversaries become allies, both inside and outside the family, as Joy’s inner life and fierce imagination carry her through the storm she faces. Like David O. Russell’s previous films, Joy defies genre to tell a story of family, loyalty, and love.

This film was fine, although I must say, somewhat flat in places. Jennifer Lawrence certainly carried the film, although even as good as she was, and as attractive as she is, it still wasn’t enough to have me jumping out of my seat I’m afraid. This melodrama came up short in some ways, and there weren’t all that many high points to carry the load for me either. I was expecting something more entertaining, like the previous couple of films that Jennifer Lawrence and Bradley Cooper had done together. I tried to be inspired by her self made woman attributes, although once again, couldn’t quite get there. As for a grade, it felt like a strong B film, if for no other reason, just because there were so many great actors involved. Here’s the trailer for Joy, in case you’d like to take a look.

Saturday Afternoon Film: As I mentioned above, I want to see this new film called Carol, so I’m doing something I rarely do…seeing a matinee. The theater is showing this film at 330pm and then at 10pm, which are very inconvenient times for me. I’ll go down and have lunch in Kahului, and then take in this film, before coming back home to finish work on this website. This film is getting very good grades from the critics, and stars Cate Blanchett, Rooney Mara, Kyle Chandler, Cory Michael Smith, Sarah Paulson, and Jake Lacy…among many others. The synopsis: The fine screenplay is by Phyllis Nagy, who drains away the sourness of the book…what remains is a production of clean and frictionless beauty, down to the last, strokable inch of clothing and skin. Carol” takes place in the early 1950s, when love between two women still dared not speak its name. The images in Carol are cool and elusive, but they also pulsate with life.

These two actresses are a couple of my favorites, especially Rooney Mara, so I’m thrilled to see this, what looks like a very sensitive film. I know that many of you think I thrive on action films and such, which isn’t untrue, although I do enjoy other types of films as well, lets not forget I recently saw The Danish Girl as well. I met my friend Dr. David Kern at the theater, and we watched it together. It was obvious to me that this was simply a wonderful film, and upon leaving the theater, David agreed wholeheartedly! In sum, Cate Blanchett and Rooney Mara take us inside a passionate story of desire and retribution, that’s both satisfying and disturbing. A movie of impeccable surfaces and subterranean anxieties…one of the very best I’ve seen lately. Here’s the trailer [full screen please].

I’ll be back with many more updates on all of the above and below, I hope you have a great Sunday night wherever you’re spending it! Aloha for now…Glenn


World-wide tropical cyclone activity:

>>> Atlantic Ocean: The last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season…has occurred. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2016. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued if conditions warrant. Here’s the 2015 hurricane season summary

Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean

>>> Caribbean Sea: The last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season…has occurred. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2016. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued if conditions warrant.

>>> Gulf of Mexico: The last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season…has occurred. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2016. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued if conditions warrant.

Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Eastern Pacific: The last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of the 2015 North Pacific hurricane season…has occurred. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on May 15, 2016. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued if conditions warrant. Here’s the 2015 hurricane season summary

Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Central Pacific: The central north Pacific hurricane season has officially ended. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on June 1, 2016. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued if conditions warrant. Here’s the 2015 hurricane season summary

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

>>> Northwest Pacific Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones

>>> South Pacific Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones


>>> North and South Indian Oceans / Arabian Sea:

Tropical Cyclone 08S (Corentin) is dissipating, located about 1239 miles south-southeast of La Reunion Island. Here’s the JTWC graphical track map, along with a satellite image – Final Warning

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)


Interesting: Buzzards Bay being impacted by climate change – An analysis of long-term, water quality monitoring data reveals that climate change is already having an impact on ecosystems in the coastal waters of Buzzards Bay, Mass. The impacts relate to how nitrogen pollution affects coastal ecosystems.

Utilizing 22 years of data collected by a network of citizen scientists, researchers from the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI) and their colleagues at the Buzzards Bay National Estuary Program, the Buzzards Bay Coalition, and the Marine Biological Laboratory found that average summertime temperatures in embayments throughout Buzzards Bay warmed by almost 2 degrees Celsius—roughly 4 degrees Fahrenheit.

“That is a rapid temperature increase for marine life,” said Jennie Rheuban, a research associate at WHOI and lead author of the paper published January 15, 2016, in the journal Biogeosciences. “For some species, a single degree Fahrenheit change can mean the difference between a comfortable environment and one where they can no longer thrive.”

In addition, Rheuban added, the warmer water temperatures are fueling an increase in algae growth. While algae and other microscopic plants, which form the base of the marine food chain, are vital to a healthy ecosystem, too much can cause murky water, reduce sunlight and oxygen levels, and ultimately cause harm to marine life.

This means added challenges for improving water quality in some Cape Cod and southeastern Mass. watersheds that are already suffering from too much nitrogen, which is most commonly caused by releases from septic systems and wastewater treatment plants, atmospheric pollution, and fertilizer runoff. Excess nitrogen also boosts algae growth.

“What we’re seeing in the long-term data is that the same levels of nitrogen in the system results in much more algae growth than it did two decades ago,” Rheuban said.

This increase in algae growth and chlorophyll means that water quality is worse for the same amount of nitrogen, which has big implications for water quality targets and clean up plans.

Identifying and understanding how different ecosystems respond to climate change will aid in future monitoring and clean up efforts as coastal communities prepare to adapt. This research is part of multi-pronged project funded in 2014 by the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation aimed at partnering with local organizations to develop science-based climate change solutions for coastal communities.

Summer Snapshots Over Time

Every summer since 1992, volunteers working with the Buzzards Bay Coalition have headed out to their local beaches and docks to help monitor the health of the bay. At sampling sites from Westport to the Elizabeth Islands, trained citizen scientists gather samples and test temperature, salinity, water clarity, and dissolved oxygen at the same locations, every five days from late May through September. In July and August, volunteers also collect water samples that are taken to the Marine Biological Laboratory where they are analyzed for nitrogen, phosphorus, and chlorophyll.

The Baywatchers program has amassed more than two decades of data that has been a valuable resource over the years not only to the Coalition’s education and outreach efforts, but also to agencies that monitor water quality and draft clean up plans.

“The data has been used by every level of government to make decisions about the management of waterways from deciding which waters are impaired to determining how much nitrogen a specific estuary can handle,” said Rachel Jakuba, PhD, science director for the Buzzards Bay Coalition and a coauthor of the paper.

This is the first time that over 20 years of the monitoring data has been analyzed for long-term trends and patterns, in particular with a focus on climate change. First, researchers looked at which locations and sites had the most consistent data over the 22-year period (from 1992 to 2012), and then divided those into 17 distinct embayments (see accompanying map for sites).

“We analyzed the data on an embayment by embayment scale,” Rheuban said. “The degree of pollution in each embayment is very different and that has to do with a number of different factors —levels of development, whether there’s agriculture or urbanization nearby.”

For example, expanded sewering of larger towns on the west side of the bay has helped reduce excess nitrogen from reaching nearby waterways more than sites along the Cape Cod side of Buzzards Bay that do not have such infrastructure already in place.

“We don’t see nitrogen increases across the board,” Rheuban said. “But what we do see in the analysis of the data is an increase in temperatures and chlorophyll concentration across the bay and a changing relationship between nitrogen and chlorophyll—an indicator of algae growth and water quality—as those waters warm.”

“This is potentially important because it suggests that in a future world with higher temperatures, towns around Buzzards Bay will have to remove more nitrogen from coastal watersheds to maintain the same water quality,” added Christopher Neill, director of the Marine Biological Laboratory’s Ecosystems Center and one of the study’s co-authors.

These types of ecosystem responses to higher temperatures, researchers said, are crucial to include in updated management and clean up plans.

“Nutrient pollution plagues coastal waters up and down the east coast,” said Scott Doney, a marine chemist at WHOI and a coauthor of the paper. “We hope the lessons learned from Buzzards Bay can help improve management efforts in many other locations.”