Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Friday…along with the minimums Friday:

86 – 75  Lihue, Kauai
92 – 78  Honolulu, Oahu – tied the record for Friday…set back in 1986
87 – 72  Molokai
92 – 72  Kahului AP, Maui – broke the record for Friday…91 back in 1953
88 – 77  Kailua Kona
90 – 72  Hilo, Hawaii

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands, as of  Friday evening:

1.62  Anahola Kauai
1.16  Oahu Forest NWR, Oahu
0.12  Molokai 1, Molokai
0.00  Lanai
0.00  Kahoolawe
0.16  Ulupalakua, Maui
0.18  Saddle Quarry, Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph)…as of Friday evening:

16  Poipu, Kauai – NE 
22  Kuaokala, Oahu – NNE
21  Molokai – ENE
21  Lanai – NE
27  Kahoolawe – ENE
10  Hana, Maui – SE
23  Puu Mali, Big Island – NE 

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 13,800 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. This web cam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon shining down during the night at times. Plus, during the nights you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise and sunset too… depending upon weather conditions.


Aloha Paragraphs

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_ir_enh_west_loop-12.gif
 Hurricane 12E (Ignacio) continues churning the waters over the
ocean to the east-southeast of Hawaii, with Hurricane Jimena
 following behind to the east…and Hurricane Kilo located to
the west-southwest of Hawaii

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tc_graphics/2015/graphics/EP122015W.gif
Hurricane 12E (Ignacio)…is forecast to move by not far
offshore northeast of Hawaii – as a hurricane (H) – it
would be wise to not pay total attention to the main
center track, and notice the white error cone range
both to the left and the right of the track…as some
of the models still want to pull the storm track to
the left, bringing it closer to the islands

 

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tc_graphics/2015/probwinds/EP122015_PROB34_F120.gif

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/cpac/vis.jpg
Impressive storms to our lower right and left

Here’s a cool wind profile…so we can keep an eye on
Hurricane Kilo (left) – Hurricane Ignacio (right)


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/hi/vis.jpg
Clear to partly cloudy skies, with most of the clouds in our vicinity
over the ocean…although over the islands locally too – those clouds
to the far right are the first signs of approaching hurricane Ignacio


http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/RadarImg/hawaii.gif
There are showers, mostly over the offshore waters
looping radar image

High Surf Advisory…west shores of the Big Island –
through today

Tropical Storm Watch…for the Big Island

 

~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~



We find the trades returning now, which will become stronger this weekend…being replaced by whatever winds hurricane Ignacio brings to bear early in the new week ahead. Here’s the latest weather map, showing the Hawaiian Islands, and the rest of the North Pacific Ocean, along with a real-time wind profiler of the central Pacific. We find a large moderately strong high pressure system far to the north-northwest of the state. At the same time we see low pressure systems/troughs in most other directions. Our winds will be kept on the lighter side of normal for the moment, although become light to moderately strong this weekend. As it stands now, hurricane Ignacio is forecast to move by relatively close to the northeast sides of the islands, during the first half of the new week, our local winds will likely be greatly influenced by its passage, either stronger or lighter…depending upon its eventual path.

We’ll actually be experiencing a fairly normal trade wind weather pattern this weekend…then there’s a big change as we push into the new week. We won’t escape the very sultry feel to our atmosphere until this weekend starts though, as the trade winds get a better toe hold in our area. As the trade winds fill back into our area over the next several days, we’ll see a few windward biased showers starting to return. As we push into the new week ahead…conditions will very likely shift back into a wet reality into the middle of the week, starting first on the Big Island. It will all come down to how close the center of hurricane Ignacio comes to our islands. If it comes closer, we would see heavy rains and strong winds. If on the other hand, the center of the system passes further offshore, we could see lighter winds, very muggy conditions…and locally heavy showers.

Hurricane 12E (Ignacio) continues to spin in our direction, and will approach our area Monday…first on the Big Island. This system is one we’ll definitely need to continue watching very closely, even though it will be two more days before Ignacio moves into range of the islands. As it looks from here, we could turn very wet again by Monday…with some possible blustery wind conditions coming our way. It’s too early to know the exact details, in terms of winds and rain, although they should be coming into better focus soon. Here’s a satellite image, and the CPHC graphical track map, and what the computer models are showing. This hurricane may be coming close enough, at least using the current advisory as a reference, so that we could see locally very strong winds…in some parts of the island chain. There will be those more exposed areas, and then of course those more protected places as well. It’s probably not too early to at least begin thinking about what parts of your property would need attention.

At the moment, and based on the most recent advisory, Hurricane Ignacio is now at category 3 strength. Looking ahead, there will be more intensification, bringing it up to category 3 hurricane strength (111 mph sustained winds with gusts to 129 mph) within 24-36 hours. Then, the models now show this hurricane strengthening a bit more, topping out with winds near 125 mph later today. Thereafter, it looks like we will find a gradually weakening tropical cyclone throughout the remainder of its life. Nonetheless, we could be dealing with a fairly close call, by hurricane Ignacio. As we move through this weekend, we’ll have a better idea whether we should be battening down the hatches, and what other preparations may be needed.

A high surf advisory will go into effect at 6am Saturday for the east facing shores of the Big Island, from a swell generated by hurricane Ignacio. The advisory may be extended to the east facing shores of Maui Saturday night. Timing for the other islands will be delayed due to shadowing and blocking from the Big Island and Maui. Warning level surf is likely for the Big Island in the days ahead. The surf forecast thereafter rests on the track and strength of Ignacio.

Meanwhile, Hurricane 13E (Jimena) remains active in the eastern Pacific. Jimena is now a major category 4 hurricane at the moment. The latest NHC forecast calls for this very serious hurricane to reach category 5 tonight! This hurricane will come into our central Pacific, and as it stands at the moment, as a category 3 tropical cyclone (96-110 mph)…by Tuesday night. Here’s a satellite image, and the NHC graphical track map, and what the computer models are showing. This will be the strongest hurricane this season in the eastern Pacific, although it will reach its peak before coming over into our central Pacific…and should be losing power as it heads west-northwestward thereafter. We aren’t worrying yet [why?] because we still have potentially dangerous Hurricane Ignacio…to deal with first!

Here on Maui…It’s 535am Friday morning, and it’s mostly clear as it started off the last several days! There’s a little high cirrus clouds, which are turning a faint pink too. There is no vog in our skies, with very good air visibilities for a change. / It’s now 1020am, with partly cloudy conditions taking over, which grades into mostly cloudy skies here in Kula. / 1145am, and it’s definitely taken a turn towards the clouds overhead becoming darker. Darker means more moisture laden, and has me swinging around in my seat to see if there’s any drops falling yet. I expect showers again this afternoon, and let you know when they begin. It looks partly sunny down at the beaches in contrast…which is often the case.

– We’re into the afternoon now, actually mid-afternoon as I’ve found a few minutes to add this observation. It’s partly cloudy, although with lots of sunshine around too…even here in Kula at the moment. It doesn’t have the feel of rain at all today, for the time being at least. I do see some big cumulus clouds around, although not quite what I would call the towering variety. I’m beginning to feel the presence of cooling trade winds, which is something we haven’t had very much of lately! The Kahului airport broke the all time record high temperature today, reaching 92, with the old record being 91 back in 1953. It seems like some place in the islands is tying or breaking the high temperature records almost everyday this summer.

– We’ve pushed into the early evening now, and the beaches are totally sunny, in most places at least…certainly the north shore. The trade winds seem to have made it as far as Maui now, as they nose in from the east. The rest of the state will certainly be feeling a bit of relief from the muggy weather of late this weekend. The humidity levels however won’t be plummeting, by any means, so keep that fan handy. 

Here’s the numbers today…during the last month there have been 449,227 visits to this website as of yesterday (Friday). There had been 1,062,993 page impressions on this website during that same period. In terms of the number of clicks on the google ads on this site, there had been 2,595 as of yesterday. Thank you very much for visiting Hawaii Weather Today online!

I’ll be back with more updates on all of the above and below, I hope you have a great Friday night wherever you’re spending it! Aloha for now…Glenn.

Friday Evening Film: I really need to get away from the computer, get away from hurricane coverage, and go downtown, hang out with some friends, have dinner, and see an action film…really need to! This film is called The Man From U.N.C.L.E. starring Henry Cavill, Alicia Vikander, Armie Hammer, Hugh Grant, Elizabeth Debicki, and Jared Harris…among many others. The synopsis: “The Man from U.N.C.L.E.” centers on CIA agent Solo and KGB agent Kuryakin. Forced to put aside longstanding hostilities, the two team up on a joint mission to stop a mysterious international criminal organization, which is bent on destabilizing the fragile balance of power through the proliferation of nuclear weapons and technology. The duo’s only lead is the daughter of a vanished German scientist, who is the key to infiltrating the criminal organization, and they must race against time to find him and prevent a worldwide catastrophe. / I’ll let you know what we thought in the morning, or when I get back this evening, until then…here’s the trailer.


World-wide tropical cyclone activity:

>>> Atlantic Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones

1.)   Showers and thunderstorms are gradually becoming better organized near a low pressure area located just off the coast of Africa about 150 miles west of Conakry, Guinea. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development during the next few days, and a tropical depression could form while the system moves northwestward and then west-northwestward toward the Cape Verde Islands at 10 to 15 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent

Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean

>>> Caribbean Sea:

Former Tropical Cyclone 05L (Erika) is dissipating over the Caribbean Islands, with sustained winds of 35 mph…and is located about 260 miles south-southeast of Nassau. Here’s the NHC graphical track map, and a satellite image – Final Advisory

>>> Gulf of Mexico: There are no active tropical cyclones

Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Eastern Pacific:

Hurricane 13E (Jimena) remains active in the northeast Pacific, with sustained winds of 150 mph…and is located about 1255 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Here’s the NHC graphical track map, and a satellite image. Here’s what the computer models are showing

Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Central Pacific:

Hurricane 12E (Ignacio) remains active in the central Pacific, with sustained winds of 115 mph…and is located about 625 miles east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii. Here’s the NHC graphical track map, and a satellite image. Here’s what the computer models are showing

Hurricane 03C (Kilo) remains active in the central  Pacific, with sustained winds of 90 mph, and is located about 730 miles south-southeast of Midway Island. Here’s the CPHC graphical track map, and a satellite image. Here’s what the computer models are showing. Category 1 hurricane will strengthen further through this weekend…although posing no threat to the Hawaiian Islands.

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

>>> Northwest Pacific Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones

>>> South Pacific Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones


>>> North and South Indian Oceans: There are no active tropical cyclones

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)


Interesting:  Dust in the Waters – Each spring, powerful dust storms in the deserts of Mongolia and northern China send thick clouds of particles into the atmosphere. Eastward winds sweep these particles as far as the Pacific, where dust ultimately settles in the open ocean. This desert dust contains, among other minerals, iron — an essential nutrient for hundreds of species of phytoplankton that make up the ocean’s food base.

Now scientists at MIT, Columbia University, and Florida State University have determined that once iron is deposited in the ocean, it has a very short residence time, spending only six months in surface waters before sinking into the deep ocean. This high turnover of iron signals that large seasonal changes in desert dust may have dramatic effects on surface phytoplankton that depend on iron.

“If there are changes to the sizes of deserts in Asia, or changes in the way people are using land, there could be a larger source of dust to the ocean,” says Chris Hayes, a postdoc in MIT’s Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences (EAPS). “It’s difficult to predict how the whole ecosystem will change, but because the residence time [of iron] is very short, year-to-year changes in dust will definitely have an impact on phytoplankton.”

The team’s results are published in the journal Geochemica et Cosmochimica Acta. 

Dust to dust

Certain species of phytoplankton, such as cyanobacteria, require iron as a main nutrient to fuel nitrogen fixation and other growth-related processes. Hayes estimates that up to 40 percent of the ocean contains phytoplankton species whose growth is limited by the amount of iron available.

As desert dust is one of the only sources of oceanic iron, Hayes wanted to see to what extent changing levels of dust would have an effect on iron concentrations in seawater: Does iron stick around in surface waters for long periods, thereby making phytoplankton less sensitive to changes in incoming dust? Or does the mineral make a short appearance before sinking to inaccessible depths, making phytoplankton depend much more on seasonal dust?

To get answers, Hayes and his colleagues traveled to Hawaii to collect ocean samples at a station called ALOHA, the site of a long-term oceanography program conducted by the University of Hawaii. In September 2013, the team took a half-day cruise into open ocean, and then spent two weeks collecting samples of ocean water at varying depths.

The researchers acidified the samples and transported them back to the lab at MIT, where they analyzed the water for both iron and thorium — a chemical element that is found in dust alongside iron. As it’s difficult to determine the rate at which iron sinks from the ocean’s surface to deep waters, Hayes reasoned that thorium might be a reasonable proxy.

Thorium has a number of isotopes: Thorium-232 is typically found in dust, and thorium-230 is produced from the decay of uranium, which decays to thorium at the same rate throughout the ocean. By comparing the amount of thorium-230 detected in ocean samples to the amount produced by uranium decay, Hayes was able to calculate thorium’s removal rate, or the time it takes for the chemical to sink after settling on the ocean’s surface.

This removal rate, he reasoned, is equivalent to the input rate of dust, or the rate at which dust is supplied to an ocean region. As the composition of an average desert dust particle is known, Hayes then extrapolated the input rate to estimate iron’s residence time in surface waters.

A small piece of a big question

The team found that on average, iron tends to stay within 150 meters of the ocean’s surface — the layer in which phytoplankton resides ­— for about six months before accumulating on larger particles and sinking to the deep ocean. This residence time leaves a relatively short period for phytoplankton to absorb iron, making the organisms rather sensitive to any changes in incoming desert dust.

“Dust can change a lot from season to season — by an order of magnitude,” Hayes says. “From satellite images, you can see big pulses of dust coming from these deserts. That could change with climate change, and different precipitation patterns. So we’re trying to keep track: If it does change, will it have an impact?”

As phytoplankton play a natural role in removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, better estimates of iron residence times, and desert dust inputs to the ocean, may help scientists gauge phytoplankton’s role in combating climate change.

“It’s a very small part that we’re getting more quantitative about,” Hayes says. “It’s one piece that adds to trying to make the prediction: If there’s more dust, will the ocean take up more carbon? That’s a big-picture question that we can’t totally answer with this, but we have one piece on the way to answering that.”

Seth John, an associate research professor at the University of Southern California, says that unlike major nutrients like nitrate and phosphate, which phytoplankton can access via upwelling of seawater from the deep ocean, supplies of iron come mostly from the surface ocean.

“The short residence time of iron in the surface ocean means that there must continually be a fresh supply of iron from dust every few months or the entire ecosystem would grind to a halt,” says John, who was not involved in the research. “This also means that changes in the supply of iron to the oceans with dust — for example, from industrial pollution or changes in land use — will quickly impact life in the middle of the Pacific Ocean.”