Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Saturday…along with the minimums Saturday:

88 – 79  Lihue, Kauai
92 – 81  Honolulu, Oahu – the record Saturday of 93…back in 1995
90 – 74  Molokai
97 – 75  Kahului AP, Maui – broke the record Saturday of 92…back in 1949
91 – 78  Kailua Kona
90 – 75  Hilo, Hawaii – broke the record Saturday of 87…back in 1977

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands, as of Saturday evening:

1.12  Mount Waialeale, Kauai
1.40  Poamoho RG 1, Oahu
0.17  Puu Alii, Molokai
0.09  Lanai
0.00  Kahoolawe
1.09  Kaupo Gap, Maui
2.75  Piihonua, Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph)…as of early Saturday evening:

16  Poipu, Kauai – NE
23  Kahuku Trng, Oahu – SE
28  Molokai – E
18  Lanai – SW
32  Kahoolawe – NE
21  Kaupo Gap, Maui – NE
31  South Point, Big Island – ENE

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 13,800 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. This web cam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon shining down during the night at times. Plus, during the nights you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise and sunset too… depending upon weather conditions.


Aloha Paragraphs

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_ir_enh_west_loop-12.gif
 There’s a counter-clockwise rotating area of
low pressure southwest of the state,
 called Tropical Depression 03C (Kilo)

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tc_graphics/2015/graphics/CP032015W.gif
The next advisory track map will be issued at 11am

 

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/cpac/vis.jpg
The area to the southwest is Tropical Depression 03C (Kilo)
with Tropical Storm 04C (Loke) far to the west…by the way
the area to the east-southeast of Hawaii is being called
Invest 95E – here’s a closer look

Here’s a real time wind profile…so we can keep an eye on
this tropical cyclone here in the central Pacific


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/hi/vis.jpg
Clear to cloudy skies, thunderstorms and rainy clouds over
the nearby ocean…shifting over the islands at times


http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/RadarImg/hawaii.gif
There are showers around the islands…mostly over
the nearby ocean…some are becoming heavy as they
rollover the islands locally – looping radar image

Flash Flood Watch…Maui County, the Big Island, and
Oahu – through 6pm Monday

Small Craft Wind Advisory…windiest coasts and
channels around Maui County and the Big Island –
until 6am Sunday

 

~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~



Our winds will be moderately strong and locally gusty…shifting to the southeast and becoming lighter. Here’s the latest weather map, showing the Hawaiian Islands, and the rest of the North Pacific Ocean, along with a real-time wind profiler of the central Pacific. We find a large, moderately strong high pressure system to the northeast of the state. At the same time we see a low pressure system northwest of the state. A shift of the winds to the southeast is now bringing locally thick volcanic haze (vog)…back over parts of the state. Our winds will be influenced by Tropical Depression Kilo as it moves by to our southwest. There’s a good chance it may bump our local wind speeds up into the stronger and gusty realms during the new week ahead. It should be pointed out that this tropical system has lost some of its organization the last day or two, although it will come together and strengthen again starting Sunday. As a matter of fact, most of the models are still wanting bring it up to at least a category 2 hurricane with time…stay tuned.

Unsettled weather will move over the state into Monday. Whatever showers that do make their way here, will spread themselves out between the windward sides, and the upcountry leeward sides….although elsewhere too. As noted above, our winds are already veering to the southeast, which is carrying lots of moisture up from the deeper tropics. The air will feel sultry and hot during the days, and quite warm at night too. We now have a Flash Flood Watch covering the entire state…which runs through Monday evening. Whatever thunderstorms and locally heavy rains that get overhead, will prompt flood advisories and even flash flood warnings here and there at times. At the moment, it looks like the best chance for heavy rains more directly associated with Kilo would likely be over the western end of the island chain, including both Kauai and Oahu during the new week ahead. However, there’s always that chance that we could see torrential rains enveloping the whole state…as Kilo gets closer.

Almost all of the weather models continue to show what will then be Hurricane Kilo moving closer to the Kauai side of the state. Tropical depression Kilo at the moment is moving in a west-northwesterly direction at about 15 mph. Here’s a satellite image of this tropical depression, along with these model runs. The latest CPHC forecast has Kilo intensifying to near 100 mph, which would be a category 2 hurricane…by Thursday morning. As I was mentioning above, Kilo has gone through some changes, weakening from a tropical storm back down to a tropical depression. The models want to kick it back up into a tropical storm soon however, eventually reaching hurricane status by later Tuesday. There continues to be a distinct threat to the islands, depending upon how close or far away this hurricane comes to us…stay tuned. As we know from past tropical cyclone approaches, these outlooks change often, several times a day even, so check back frequently to see the latest weather information.

I’ll be back with more updates on all of the above and below, I hope you have a great Saturday night wherever you’re spending it! Aloha for now…Glenn.

Here on Maui…It’s 540am Saturday morning, skies are partly cloudy, with the higher cirrus clouds having turned a beautiful pink and orange at sunrise! Meanwhile, just before sunrise, Maui awoke to a major thunderstorm firing off, with lots of bright lightning and very loud thunder claps as well…very unusual start to our day!

– We’re into the early afternoon now, and I’ve been gone most of the morning. My iPhone went on the blink yesterday, so I had to go down to Kahului to have it looked at. I was very fortunate to have it be an easy fix. It’s almost like not having your computer go down, and we know how that feels…to have our phones go on the blink too. At any rate, while I was down there at the shopping mall, I picked up a new shirt at Macy’s, which I’m looking forward to wearing one of these days. Then I drove down to Paia, for my weekly food shopping trip to Mana Foods. I’m now back home here in Kula, and it sure feels rather muggy, not as intense as down near the coast, although nonetheless…warm and sultry without a doubt! It’s cloudy here, although no rain so far, despite the current flash flood watch in effect through Monday evening…that’s a long time! / It’s now 120pm, and getting darker fast, at least the clouds are, and I’m noticing that there’s vog back again as well, which is light to moderately thick all the sudden. / At 430pm the volcanic haze is thick, no two ways about it.

– We’re now into the early evening, after a thick fog covered us up for much of the afternoon. It cooled things off so nicely, and I’m enjoying time alone this evening…without having to get up to an alarm Sunday. These back to back tropical systems have been keeping me on my toes the last three weeks, and it seems much longer than that to me. I’ve been spending most of my time keeping this website updated, time that I love very much…its fulfilling to me on a deep level. I fell (perhaps to my knees) for the weather when I was around 6 or 8 years old. I’m now going on 70, and have somehow made this childhood fascination into a long and enlightening weather career. I’m going out to be with the outdoors while its still light, I’ll check back in here a little later. / Now at 805pm, I just heard a rather loud thunder, not a clap, but a bit more drawn out sound. / We at 820pm and there is lots of bright lightning over the Haleakala Crater, or somewhere in that direction…with almost constant thunder at the moment.

Friday Evening Film: This time around I’m going to see a film that looks really good, and the critics seem to be very happy with it too. It’s called Mission: Impossible Rogue Nation, starring Tom Cruise, Ving Rhames, Jeremy Renner, Simon Pegg, Alec Baldwin, Rebecca Ferguson, Jingchu Zhang, and Jessica Williams…among many others. The synopsis: with the IMF disbanded, and Ethan (Tom Cruise) out in the cold, the team now faces off against a network of highly skilled special agents, the Syndicate. These operatives are hellbent on creating a new world order through an escalating series of terrorist attacks. Ethan gathers his team and joins forces with disavowed British agent Ilsa Faust (Rebecca Ferguson), who may or may not be a member of this rogue nation…as the group faces their most impossible mission yet.

I went to see this film with my friend Linda, who I visit in Marin County, California during my fall and spring vacations. She also has a place here on Maui, and she doesn’t really care for action films. A friend of hers told her it was a good film, so it gave her the confidence to give it a try, and as it turned out…she wasn’t all that taken with it. She mentioned to me today though, she was glad to have seen it, as it showed her what she didn’t want to see more of. I on the other hand found it perfectly entertaining, and enjoyable. It was an intelligent espionage plot, with good acting from all its characters. It had pretty much everything one would need from an active film, including great set pieces, reckless driving in fast cars, clever humor, and an attractive woman playing a major part. This women actually saved Tom Cruises life several times. As for a grade, well, I’ll tip my hat in the direction of a B+ rating, better than a straight up B, but not getting into the A- category. If you have any interest..here’s the trailer.


World-wide tropical cyclone activity:

>>> Atlantic Ocean:

Tropical Storm 4L (Danny) remains active, with sustained winds of 50 mph…and is located about 310 miles east-southeast of Guadeloupe. Here’s the NHC graphical track map, and a satellite image. Here’s what the computer models are showing.

1.)   A broad low pressure area located a couple of hundred miles northwest of Bermuda continues to produce disorganized shower activity. This system is expected to move generally northward and merge with a frontal system during the next day or so, and subtropical or tropical cyclone development is not expected.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…near 0 percent

2.)   Disorganized showers and thunderstorms are associated with a low pressure area located about 500 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by mid-week while the wave moves quickly westward at around 20 mph. By late this week, atmospheric conditions could become less favorable for tropical cyclone formation.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent

3.)   Another tropical wave is expected to move off of the west coast of Africa later today. Environmental conditions could be conducive for some development of this system this week while this disturbance moves westward over the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean at 15 to 20 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent

Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean

>>> Caribbean Sea: There are no active tropical cyclones

>>> Gulf of Mexico: There are no active tropical cyclones

Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Eastern Pacific: There are no active tropical cyclones

1.)  Shower activity associated with a broad, slow-moving area of low pressure located about 1400 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula remains limited and disorganized. Environmental conditions are conducive for slow development as it merges with a disturbance approaching it from the east, and a tropical depression is likely to form later this week while the system begins to moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent

2.)  A large area of disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms extends northeastward from a broad area of low pressure located about 1000 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. While some development of this system is possible during the next few days, it most likely will merge with the disturbance to its west as it moves northwestward and then west-northwestward at about 10 at 15 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent

3.)   A low pressure area is expected to form well southwest of the coast of southwestern Mexico in a few days. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week while this system moves westward and then west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent

Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Central Pacific:

Tropical Depression 03C (Kilo) remains active, with sustained winds of 35 mph, and is located about 570 miles southwest of Honolulu, Oahu. Here’s the CPHC graphical track map, and a satellite image. Here’s what a couple of the computer models are showing.

Tropical Storm 04C (Loke) remains active, with sustained winds of 40 mph, and is located about 560 miles south-southwest of Midway Island. Here’s the CPHC graphical track map, and a satellite image. Here’s what the computer models are showing.

>>> Here’s a satellite image showing these areas

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

>>> Northwest Pacific Ocean:


Typhoon 16W (Goni) remains active with sustained winds of 100 knots, and is located about 243 NM west-southwest of Kadena AB, Okinawa. Here’s the JTWC graphical track map…and a satellite image…and what the computer models are showing.

Typhoon 17W (Atsani) remains active with sustained winds of 75 knots, and is located about 447 NM southeast of Yokosuka, Japan. Here’s the JTWC graphical track map…and a satellite image…and what computer models are showing.

>>> South Pacific Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones


>>> North and South Indian Oceans: There are no active tropical cyclones

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)


Interesting: How will global food supply be affected by climate change? – In 2007, drought struck the bread baskets of Europe, Russia, Canada, and Australia. Global grain stocks were already scant, so wheat prices began to rise rapidly. When countries put up trade barriers to keep their own harvests from being exported, prices doubled, according to an index of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Just 3 years later, another spike in food prices contributed to the Arab Spring uprisings.

Such weather-related crop disasters will become more likely with climate change, warns a detailed report released today by the Global Food Security (GFS) program, a network of public research funding agencies in the United Kingdom. “The risks are serious and should be a cause for concern,” writes David King, the U.K. Foreign Secretary’s Special Representative for Climate Change, in a foreword to the report.

To create the lengthy evaluation, dozens of scientists, policy wonks, and industry experts examined the global food system and its vulnerabilities to severe weather. They created a “plausible” worst case scenario: drought hitting four key staples—wheat, rice, corn, and soybeans—simultaneously. (The worrying precedents are a drought in 1988 to 1989 that cut yields of corn by an estimated 12% worldwide and soybeans by 8.5%, and a 2002 to 2003 drought that afflicted wheat and rice to a lesser extent.) If such a calamity struck next year, it would likely cause the price of grain to triple, the researchers suggest.

The chance of major global crop failures of this magnitude will increase with climate change, as drought, flooding, and heat waves strike fields more often. To estimate the odds, the researchers turned to existing models of how crops respond to temperature, precipitation, and other factors. By 2040, severe crop failures previously estimated to occur once a century are likely to happen every 3 decades, the report finds. The researchers emphasize that the risk analysis is preliminary. The report also highlights recent research indicating that the ever larger volumes of globally traded food raise the risk of large price shocks. Biofuel mandates, in which corn and other crops are turned into fuel, are thought to exacerbate the problem by cutting grain surpluses.