Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Friday…along with the minimums Friday:

88 – 76  Lihue, Kauai
91 – 79  Honolulu, Oahu – the record Friday of 93…back in 1987
88 – 73  Molokai
94 – 72  Kahului AP, Maui – tied the record Friday of 94…back in 1951
88 – 79  Kailua Kona
88 – 74  Hilo, Hawaii

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands, as of Friday evening:

0.55  Kokee, Kauai
2.32  Poamoho RG 1, Oahu
0.03  Molokai 1, Molokai
0.00  Lanai
0.00  Kahoolawe
0.07  Hana AP, Maui
0.67  Piihonua, Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph)…as of Friday evening:

17  Puu Opae, Kauai – NW
31  Kuaokala, Oahu – ENE
27  Molokai – NE
25  Lanai – NE
35  Kahoolawe – ENE
28  Kapalua, Maui – NE
28  South Point, Big Island – NE

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 13,800 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. This web cam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon shining down during the night at times. Plus, during the nights you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise and sunset too… depending upon weather conditions.


Aloha Paragraphs

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_ir_enh_west_loop-12.gif
 There’s a counter-clockwise rotating area
of low pressure south of the state,
called Tropical Depression 03C (Kilo)

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tc_graphics/2015/graphics/CP032015W.gif
This is the current forecast track – as of 11pm HST…
the next advisory track map will be issued at 5am

 

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tc_graphics/2015/probwinds/CP032015_PROB34_F120.gif

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tc_graphics/2015/graphics/CP042015W.gif
Tropical Storm 04C (Loke)…is not a threat to Hawaii

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/cpac/vis.jpg
The area to the south is Tropical Depression 03C (Kilo) with
Tropical Storm 04C (Loke) to the west-southwest

Here’s a real time wind profile…so we can keep an eye on
these two tropical cyclones here in the central Pacific


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/hi/vis.jpg
Clear to cloudy skies…thunderstorms near the
Big Island and east Maui at the time
of this writing


http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/RadarImg/hawaii.gif
There are showers around the islands…mostly
over the nearby ocean…increasing towards the
Big Island, Maui and Oahu – looping radar image

Flash Flood Warning...east Maui – until 8am

Flood Advisory…east Big Island – until 815am

Flash Flood Watch…Maui and the Big Island –
now through 6pm Monday

 

~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~



Our winds will be light to moderately strong trades for a short while longer…then shifting to the southeast soon. Here’s the latest weather map, showing the Hawaiian Islands, and the rest of the North Pacific Ocean, along with a real-time wind profiler of the central Pacific. We find a large, moderately strong high pressure system to the north-northeast of the state. At the same time we see a low pressure system northwest of the state. As this low pressure cell continues to move further away, we’ll find trade wind weather conditions ending soon. A shift of the winds to the southeast is already bringing volcanic haze (vog)…back over Maui County. Our winds will be influenced by Tropical Depression Kilo as it moves by to our south and southwest. There’s a good chance it may bump our local wind speeds up into the stronger and gusty realms next week. It should be pointed out that this tropical system is going through some changes, although most of the models want to keep it going…stay tuned.

The unusual rainy weather of late eased up significantly today, although will come back again this weekend…starting off over Maui and the Big Island. Whatever showers that do make their way here, will spread themselves out between the windward sides, and the upcountry leeward sides through the night. As noted above, our winds are already veering to the southeast, which is expected to drag lots of moisture up from the deeper tropics over the state, first over the Big Island and Maui, and then up over the rest of the island chain. The air will feel sultry and rather hot too during the days, with that increase in showers…especially over the eastern islands Saturday. We already have a Flash Flood Watch in place, over those eastern islands…beginning at 6pm Saturday. At the moment, it looks like the best chance for heavy rains more directly associated with Kilo would likely be over the western end of the island chain, including both Kauai and Oahu next week.

Almost all of the weather models continue to show what may then be Hurricane Kilo moving closer to the state…next week. Tropical depression Kilo at the moment is moving in a westerly direction at about 16 mph. Here’s a satellite image of this tropical depression, along with these model runs. The latest CPHC forecast has Kilo intensifying to near 75 mph, which would be a category 1 hurricane…wherever it happens to be then. As I was mentioning above, Kilo is going through some major changes, and has fallen from a tropical storm back down to a tropical depression. The models want to kick it back up again, eventually reaching hurricane status…stay tuned. As we know from past tropical cyclone approaches, these outlooks change often, several times a day even, so check back frequently to see the latest weather information.

I’ll be back with more updates on all of the above and below, I hope you have a great Friday night wherever you’re spending it! Aloha for now…Glenn.

Here on Maui…It’s 540am Friday morning, skies are mostly clear, setting the stage for a beautiful morning here in paradise! / It’s now 905am, and I’m a bit surprised at how cloudy it’s trying to get already. It actually isn’t acting all that different today, than it was yesterday about this time. The trades were suppose to limit our showers today, and they might yet, although I’m starting to question that assumption about now. We may see some more upcountry showers this afternoon here on Maui, and elsewhere across the state too…could they turn out to be still a bit on the heavy side…hmmm? / It’s now 1020am here in upcountry Kula, and I must admit I keep looking out my sliding glass door, to see if any drops are starting to fall…the atmosphere has that shower prone feel again today. Meanwhile, down at the beaches, it still looks quite nice and at least partly sunny.

– Now at 1250pm, the convection that seemed to be firing up earlier, now has calmed down, and I think due to the trade winds finally. As I was mentioning above, I had my eye out for more rain a little earlier, and now it seems much drier, and less shower prone. We aren’t out of the woods just yet though, and if you’ve had a chance to glance through a paragraph or two up this page, we have more tropical moisture heading our way, along with muggy southeasterly winds…and possible vog. This is one of the most unusual summers I can remember, although despite being here back in 1997, when the last really big El Nino was happening, I can’t remember if that summer was similar to this one. I have a hunch that this weekend going into early next week is going to be a lot like the doldrums. This means like down on the equator, where its hot and humid pretty much year round…without any sign of the trade winds, or any winds at all for that matter.  It happens to be my least favorite weather! / 3pm, breezy, partly cloudy, and a bit of volcanic haze still in the air. / 440pm…partly cloudy with moderate to thick volcanic haze.

Friday Evening Film:  This time around I’m going to see a film that looks really good, and the critics seem to be very happy with it too. It’s called Mission: Impossible Rogue Nation, starring Tom Cruise, Ving Rhames, Jeremy Renner, Simon Pegg, Alec Baldwin, Rebecca Ferguson, Jingchu Zhang, and Jessica Williams…among many others. The synopsis: with the IMF disbanded, and Ethan (Tom Cruise) out in the cold, the team now faces off against a network of highly skilled special agents, the Syndicate. These operatives are hellbent on creating a new world order through an escalating series of terrorist attacks. Ethan gathers his team and joins forces with disavowed British agent Ilsa Faust (Rebecca Ferguson), who may or may not be a member of this rogue nation…as the group faces their most impossible mission yet. 

I went to see this film with my friend Linda, who I visit in Marin County, California during my fall and spring vacations. She also has a place here on Maui, and she doesn’t really care for action films. A friend of hers told her it was a good though, so she tried it against her better judgement, and as it turned out…she wasn’t all that taken with it. I on the other hand found it perfectly entertaining, and enjoyable. It was an intelligent espionage plot, with good acting from all its characters. It had pretty much everything one would need from an active film, including great set pieces, reckless driving in fast cars, clever humor, and an attractive woman playing a major part. This women actually saved Tom Cruises life several times. As for a grade, well, I’ll tip my hat in the direction of a B+ rating, better than a straight up B, but not getting into the A- category. If you have any interest..here’s the trailer.


World-wide tropical cyclone activity:

>>> Atlantic Ocean:

Hurricane 4L (Danny) remains active, with sustained winds of 90 mph, category 1 hurricane…and is located about 660 miles east of the Leeward Islands. Here’s the NHC graphical track map, and a satellite image. Here’s what the computer models are showing.

1.)   During the night, the broad area of low pressure over the western Atlantic Ocean has formed a new center a couple of hundred miles north-northwest of Bermuda. While the associated shower activity is poorly organized, there is still some potential for tropical or subtropical cyclone development during the next couple of days as the system moves generally northward. After that time, the low is expected to merge with a frontal system.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent

2.)   Shower activity associated with a tropical wave near and south of the Cape Verde Islands has become a little better organized since yesterday. Additional slow development of this system is possible during the next several days while the wave moves quickly westward at about 25 mph over the tropical Atlantic Ocean.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent

3.)   Another tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa in a day or two. Some development of this system is possible thereafter while it moves westward over the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent

Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean

>>> Caribbean Sea: There are no active tropical cyclones

>>> Gulf of Mexico: There are no active tropical cyclones

Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Eastern Pacific: There are no active tropical cyclones

1.)  Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a broad area of low pressure located about 1300 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula remains limited. Some gradual development of this system is possible during the next several days while it moves westward at 5 to 10 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent

2.)   A low pressure area is expected to form well south of the coast of Mexico early next week. Environmental conditions should support gradual development of the system while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent

Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Central Pacific:

Tropical Depression 03C (Kilo) remains active, with sustained winds of 30 mph, and is located about 520 miles south of Honolulu, Oahu. Here’s the CPHC graphical track map, and a satellite image. Here’s what a couple of the computer models are showing.

Tropical Storm 04C (Loke) remains active, with sustained winds of 35 mph, and is located about 555 miles west of Johnston Island. Here’s the CPHC graphical track map, and a satellite image. Here’s what the computer models are showing.

>>> Here’s a satellite image showing these areas

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

>>> Northwest Pacific Ocean:


Typhoon 16W (Goni) remains active with sustained winds of 80 knots, and is located about 404 NM southwest of Kadena AB, Okinawa. Here’s the JTWC graphical track map…and a satellite image…and what the computer models are showing.

Typhoon 17W (Atsani) remains active with sustained winds of 80 knots, and is located about 502 NM southeast of Yokosuka, Japan. Here’s the JTWC graphical track map…and a satellite image…and what computer models are showing.

>>> South Pacific Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones


>>> North and South Indian Oceans: There are no active tropical cyclones

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)


Interesting:  How will global food supply be affected by climate change? – In 2007, drought struck the bread baskets of Europe, Russia, Canada, and Australia. Global grain stocks were already scant, so wheat prices began to rise rapidly. When countries put up trade barriers to keep their own harvests from being exported, prices doubled, according to an index of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Just 3 years later, another spike in food prices contributed to the Arab Spring uprisings.

Such weather-related crop disasters will become more likely with climate change, warns a detailed report released today by the Global Food Security (GFS) program, a network of public research funding agencies in the United Kingdom. “The risks are serious and should be a cause for concern,” writes David King, the U.K. Foreign Secretary’s Special Representative for Climate Change, in a foreword to the report.

To create the lengthy evaluation, dozens of scientists, policy wonks, and industry experts examined the global food system and its vulnerabilities to severe weather. They created a “plausible” worst case scenario: drought hitting four key staples—wheat, rice, corn, and soybeans—simultaneously. (The worrying precedents are a drought in 1988 to 1989 that cut yields of corn by an estimated 12% worldwide and soybeans by 8.5%, and a 2002 to 2003 drought that afflicted wheat and rice to a lesser extent.) If such a calamity struck next year, it would likely cause the price of grain to triple, the researchers suggest.

The chance of major global crop failures of this magnitude will increase with climate change, as drought, flooding, and heat waves strike fields more often. To estimate the odds, the researchers turned to existing models of how crops respond to temperature, precipitation, and other factors. By 2040, severe crop failures previously estimated to occur once a century are likely to happen every 3 decades, the report finds. The researchers emphasize that the risk analysis is preliminary. The report also highlights recent research indicating that the ever larger volumes of globally traded food raise the risk of large price shocks. Biofuel mandates, in which corn and other crops are turned into fuel, are thought to exacerbate the problem by cutting grain surpluses.