Hawaiian Islands Weather Details & Aloha Paragraphs / July 5-6, 2015

Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Sunday…along with the minimums Sunday:

86 – 77  Lihue, Kauai
90 – 75  Honolulu, Oahu – broke the record high of 87 degrees…set back in 1981
86 – 73  Molokai
88 – 74  Kahului, Maui
87 – 75  Kailua Kona
87 – 70  Hilo, Hawaii

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands, as of  Sunday evening:

0.01  Wainiha, Kauai
0.01  Luluku, Oahu
0.00  Molokai
0.00  Lanai
0.00  Kahoolawe
0.02  Hana AP, Maui
0.11  Kawainui Stream, Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph)…as of Sunday evening:

15  Waimea Heights, Kauai – SW
31  Kuaokala, Oahu – NE
24  Molokai – NE
27  Lanai – NE
30  Kahoolawe – NE
29  Kapalua, Maui – NE
27  Kealakomo, Big Island – E

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 13,800 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. This web cam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon shining down during the night at times. Plus, during the nights you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise and sunset too… depending upon weather conditions.

Aloha Paragraphs

The east and central Pacific have active tropical disturbances, moving
east to west…with possible fluctuations northward with time
<more information on them below>

Mostly clear to partly cloudy conditions over the state…
a few cloudy areas locally
Looping version

Some showers, mostly over the nearby ocean…with a few
over the islands – looping radar image

~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~

Our local trade winds are picking up now and will gradually strengthen…into the new week. Here’s the latest weather map, showing the Hawaiian Islands, and the rest of the North Pacific Ocean, along with a real-time wind profiler of the central Pacific. We find a moderately strong, near 1028 millibar high pressure system far to the north-northeast of the state. At the same time, there’s a trough of low pressure to the west. Meanwhile, there are numerous low pressure cells along the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) to the south of Hawaii…moving westward. Our trade winds will gain more strength going forward…remaining well established through the next week. On the other hand, some of the computer models show a tropical system moving by just to the north of the islands next weekend…which would cut off our trade winds then…stay tuned.

As the trade winds ramp-up in speed going forward…there will be the usual off and on windward showers. As the trade winds get stronger, there’s always that chance that a few showers will be carried over into the leeward sides here and there too. Meanwhile, some of the computer models continue to suggest rainy weather arriving over some parts of the state later in the new week. It appears that around Friday into next weekend would have the greatest chance of having a tropical system bringing a change in our local weather conditions. I’ll keep an eye on this possible weather situation…stay tuned. I’ll also be back with more updates on all of the above and below, I hope you have a great Sunday night wherever you’re spending it! Aloha for now…Glenn.

A tropical disturbance remains active in the eastern Pacific…which is very likely to cross over into our central Pacific with time. This area of disturbed weather is being referred to as Invest 96E. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is giving it a medium 60% chance of developing over the next two days…increasing to a high 90% chance within five days. Here’s what the hurricane models are showing for this area. By the way, here’s what the National Hurricane Center suggests will be happening within 5-days. 

Meanwhile, we have 2 tropical disturbances in our own Central Pacific as well. According to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC), there are showers and thunderstorms about 680 miles southeast of Hilo, on the Big Island…and another area located about 1000 miles southwest of Honolulu. Here’s a satellite image of these areas, both marked with a yellow X, in addition to the area to the east of it (still in the eastern Pacific), marked with an orange X…having a medium chance of developing. By the way, I’m not worrying about either of these two tropical systems in our area becoming a threat to the islands.

Here on Maui…it’s 545am Sunday morning, with mostly clear skies, although with some common low clouds banked up against the windward sides. The air temperature here in Kula, at my upcountry weather tower was 53.4 degrees, while it was 75 down at the Kahului airport, 73 out in Hana…and 46 up at the summit of the Haleakala Crater at near the same time.

– Hi, it’s getting to be the middle of the afternoon now, with breezy trade winds blowing today, at least compared to much of the last week or so. I see no trace of the volcanic haze that was around earlier this week, and which was thick for several days recently.  It’s a dry day, and even looking over towards the windward sides, I don’t see any lower level clouds at all, although I’m beginning to see some thin high clouds now too.  

– We’re into the early evening hours now, and skies are clear to partly cloudy. Today was a really nice day weather wise, and I see no reason to think these favorably inclined conditions will change anytime soon.

World-wide tropical cyclone activity:

>>> Atlantic Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones

>>> Caribbean Sea: There are no active tropical cyclones

>>> Gulf of Mexico: There are no active tropical cyclones

Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean

Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days over the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea or Atlantic Ocean

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Eastern Pacific: There are no active tropical cyclones

1.)  A large low pressure system centered about 1700 miles east- southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii has changed little in organization during the past few hours. However, environmental conditions are expected to be become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form during the next day or two while the system moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent

Here’s a satellite image showing this tropical disturbance

Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Central Pacific: There are no active tropical cyclones

1.)  A weak surface low is producing an area of disturbed weather centered about 680 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii. This system remains disorganized, but environmental conditions may become a little more favorable for some gradual development over the next couple of days while it remains nearly stationary.

* Formation chance through 48 hours, low…10 percent

2.)  Thunderstorm activity around a weak, nearly stationary, low pressure area about 1000 miles southwest of Honolulu, Hawaii remains minimal. Conditions are not expected to become favorable for development through late Tuesday night.

* Formation chance through 48 hours, low…10 percent

Elsewhere, there are no tropical cyclones are expected through the next two days

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

>>> Northwest Pacific Ocean:

Typhoon 09W (Chan-hom) remains active in the northwest Pacific. Here’s the JTWC graphical track map, along with a satellite image. Here’s what the GFS and NAVGEM computer models are showing.

Tropical storm 10W (Linfa) remains active in the South China Sea. Here’s the JTWC graphical track map, along with a satellite image. Here’s what the computer model are showing.

Typhoon 11W (Nangka) remains active in the northwest Pacific. Here’s the JTWC graphical track map, along with a satellite image. Here’s what the GEFS computer model is showing.

>>> South Pacific Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones

>>> North and South Indian Oceans: There are no active tropical cyclones

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Interesting: Extremely high coastal erosion in northern Alaska – In a new study published today, scientists from the U.S. Geological Survey found that the remote northern Alaska coast has some of the highest shoreline erosion rates in the world.Analyzing over half a century of shoreline change data, scientists found the pattern is extremely variable with most of the coast retreating at rates of more than 1 meter a year.

“Coastal erosion along the Arctic coast of Alaska is threatening Native Alaskan villages, sensitive ecosystems, energy and defense related infrastructure, and large tracts of Native Alaskan, State, and Federally managed land,” said Suzette Kimball, acting director of the USGS.

Scientists studied more than 1600 kilometers of the Alaskan coast between the U.S. Canadian border and Icy Cape and found the average rate of shoreline change, taking into account beaches that are both eroding and expanding, was -1.4 meters per year. Of those beaches eroding, the most extreme case exceeded 18.6 meters per year.

“This report provides invaluable objective data to help native communities, scientists and land managers understand natural changes and human impacts on the Alaskan coast,” said Ann Gibbs, USGS Geologist and lead author of the new report.

Coastlines change in response to a variety of factors, including changes in the amount of available sediment, storm impacts, sea-level rise and human activities. How much a coast erodes or expands in any given location is due to some combination of these factors, which vary from place to place.

“There is increasing need for this kind of comprehensive assessment in all coastal environments to guide managed response to sea-level rise and storm impacts,” said Dr. Bruce Richmond of the USGS. “It is very difficult to predict what may happen in the future without a solid understanding of what has happened in the past. Comprehensive regional studies such as this are an important tool to better understand coastal change. ”

Compared to other coastal areas of the U.S., where four or more historical shoreline data sets are available, generally back to the mid-1800s, shoreline data for the coast of Alaska are limited. The researchers used two historical data sources, from the 1940s and 2000s, such as maps and aerial photographs, as well as modern data like lidar, or “light detection and ranging,” to measure shoreline change at more than 26,567 locations.