Hawaiian Islands Weather Details & Aloha Paragraphs / July 4-5, 2015

Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Saturday…along with the minimums Saturday:

86 – 78 Lihue, Kauai
90 – 74 Honolulu, Oahu
89 – 66 Molokai
90 – 69 Kahului, Maui 
86 – 76 Kailua Kona
88 – 70 Hilo, Hawaii

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands, as of  Saturday evening:

0.23  N Wailua ditch, Kauai
0.01  Oahu Forest NWR, Oahu
0.01  Puu Alii, Molokai
0.00  Lanai
0.00  Kahoolawe
0.01  Kahakuloa, Maui
0.05  Honaunau, Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph)…as of Saturday evening:

16  Waimea Heights, Kauai – S
22  Kahuku Trng, Oahu – SE
23  Molokai – ENE
21  Lanai – NE
27  Kahoolawe – NE
13  Hana, Maui – E
27  Kealakomo, Big Island – E

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 13,800 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. This web cam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon shining down during the night at times. Plus, during the nights you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise and sunset too… depending upon weather conditions.

Aloha Paragraphs

The eastern and central Pacific find active tropical disturbances…moving
generally from east to west, with some fluctuations northward at times
<more information on them below>

Mostly clear to partly cloudy over the state – it looks dry to the
northeast and east of the state / a few cirrus cloud streaks
Looping version

Showers…mostly over the nearby ocean, with a few
over the islands too – looping radar image

High Surf Advisory…for south shores this weekend

~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~

Celebrating the Independence Day holiday weekend!

Our local trade winds are picking up now and will gradually strengthen Sunday…into the new week ahead. Here’s the latest weather map, showing the Hawaiian Islands, and the rest of the North Pacific Ocean, along with a real-time wind profiler of the central Pacific. We find high pressure systems far to the west-northwest and northeast of the state. At the same time, there’s low pressure systems far to the north, along with a trough of low pressure to the west. Meanwhile, there are numerous low pressure cells along the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) to the south of Hawaii…moving westward. Our trade winds will start to blow with more strength…remaining well established through the next week. As a matter of fact, they should become strong and gusty, with an increased pressure gradient from north to south, across our latitudes of the central Pacific…as tropical low pressure systems move by just to the south of Hawaii with time.

As the trade winds begin to ramp-up Sunday and beyond, there will be the usual off and on passing windward biased showers. There’s the chance that the northern fringe of a tropical system or two may bring an increase in showers during the next week. As a matter of fact, some of the computer models continue to suggest locally heavy rain arriving over some parts of the state. I’ll be keeping an eye on these potential weather incidents…stay tuned. I’ll also be back with more updates on all of the above, I hope you have a great Saturday night wherever you’re spending it! Aloha for now…Glenn.

A couple of tropical disturbances remain active in the eastern Pacific…one or both of which may cross over into our central Pacific with time. The first of these areas of disturbed weather is being referred to as Invest 95E. I’m not overly concerned about this becoming a problem for the Hawaiian Islands at the moment, although we’ll keep an eye on it going forward. Here’s a satellite image of this area, along with the looping version. Here’s what one computer model is showing. The satellite image shows that this area has a low 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression over the next two days, maintaining a low 20% chance over the next five days.

The second disturbance, marked by an orange X, is located closer to Mexico…and is being referred to as Invest 96E. This tropical disturbance has a medium 60% chance of developing over the next two days…increasing to a high 90% chance within five days. Here’s what the hurricane models are showing for this second area. By the way, here’s what the National Hurricane Center suggests will be happening within 5-days for both of these disturbances. Interestingly enough, both the GFS and NAVGEM models are showing a tropical lows moving close to, or at least towards the state later in the new week. This isn’t a sure thing, being so far out into the future…although its enough to keep me watching them closely.

Meanwhile, we have 2 tropical disturbances in our own Central Pacific now as well. According to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC), there are showers and thunderstorms about 800 miles south-southeast of Hilo, on the Big Island…and another area located about 960 miles southwest of Honolulu. Here’s a satellite image of these areas, both marked with a yellow X, in addition to the area to the east-northeast of it (still in the eastern Pacific), marked with an yellow X as well…having a low chance of developing.

Here on Maui…it’s 605am Saturday morning, with mostly clear skies, with still some lighter volcanic haze (vog), and some smoke over the central valley as well. The air temperature here in Kula, at my upcountry weather tower was 53.2 degrees, while it was 72 down at the Kahului airport, 75 out in Hana…and 46 up at the summit of the Haleakala Crater at near the same time.

– We’re into the early afternoon hours of this 4th of July holiday. Looking down towards the central valley, I’m very happy to say I don’t see but a faint reminder of the dense vog we had at times this past week. The trade winds are definitely on the rise, and this is what’s now scouring out this volcanic haze…finally. I can’t imagine a return of vog here on Maui, at least not during the summer months. This episode was very unusual, ok, extremely unusual. I can’t visualize another of these voggy periods, unless a tropical system gets in close to our state, and shifts our normal summer trade winds…around to the southeast again! By the way, the temperature at noon today was 89 degrees, I don’t think we’ll break the all time record high temperature again…for the third day in a row!

– We’re into the evening hours here in Kula, and I can hear a few minor fireworks going off in this neighborhood.


World-wide tropical cyclone activity:

>>> Atlantic Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones

>>> Caribbean Sea: There are no active tropical cyclones

>>> Gulf of Mexico: There are no active tropical cyclones

Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean

Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days over the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea or Atlantic Ocean

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Eastern Pacific: There are no active tropical cyclones

No tropical cyclones are expected through the next five days

1.)  A low pressure system about 1125 miles east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands has remained nearly stationary overnight. Shower activity is minimal and displaced well to the south and southeast of the center. Development of this disturbance is not expected since upper-level winds are forecast to become unfavorable in a day or so. The low is forecast to drift westward or west-northwestward over the next several days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent

2.)   Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure centered about 1450 miles southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico have changed little in organization overnight. However, environmental conditions remain conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is expected to form by mid-week while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent

Here’s a satellite image showing both of these tropical disturbances

Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Central Pacific: There are no active tropical cyclones

1.)  A weak low pressure area is located about 1130 miles east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii. This system remains poorly organized. Upper level winds are expected to remain unfavorable for development as this system moves slowly to the west during the next couple of days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours, low…10 percent

2.)  An area of disturbed weather, associated with a weak low pressure area, is located about 780 miles south-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii. This system remains disorganized, but environmental conditions may become a little more favorable for some gradual development over the next couple of days while it remains nearly stationary.

* Formation chance through 48 hours, low…20 percent

3.)  Isolated thunderstorms continued to form in the vicinity of a weak low pressure area about 970 miles southwest of Honolulu, Hawaii. Conditions are not expected to be conducive for development through Monday night.

* Formation chance through 48 hours, low…20 percent.

Elsewhere, there are no tropical cyclones are expected through the next two days

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

>>> Northwest Pacific Ocean:

Tropical storm 09W (Chan-hom) remains active in the northwest Pacific. Here’s the JTWC graphical track map, along with a satellite image. Here’s what the GFS and NAVGEM computer models are showing.

Tropical Storm 10W (Linfa) remains active in the Philippine Sea. Here’s the JTWC graphical track map, along with a satellite image. Here’s what the computer model are showing.

Tropical Storm 11W (Nangka) remains active in the northwest Pacific. Here’s the JTWC graphical track map, along with a satellite image. Here’s what the GEFS computer model is showing.

>>> South Pacific Ocean:  There are no active tropical cyclones

>>> North and South Indian Oceans: There are no active tropical cyclones

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Interesting: Extremely high coastal erosion in northern Alaska – In a new study published today, scientists from the U.S. Geological Survey found that the remote northern Alaska coast has some of the highest shoreline erosion rates in the world.Analyzing over half a century of shoreline change data, scientists found the pattern is extremely variable with most of the coast retreating at rates of more than 1 meter a year.

“Coastal erosion along the Arctic coast of Alaska is threatening Native Alaskan villages, sensitive ecosystems, energy and defense related infrastructure, and large tracts of Native Alaskan, State, and Federally managed land,” said Suzette Kimball, acting director of the USGS.

Scientists studied more than 1600 kilometers of the Alaskan coast between the U.S. Canadian border and Icy Cape and found the average rate of shoreline change, taking into account beaches that are both eroding and expanding, was -1.4 meters per year. Of those beaches eroding, the most extreme case exceeded 18.6 meters per year.

“This report provides invaluable objective data to help native communities, scientists and land managers understand natural changes and human impacts on the Alaskan coast,” said Ann Gibbs, USGS Geologist and lead author of the new report.

Coastlines change in response to a variety of factors, including changes in the amount of available sediment, storm impacts, sea-level rise and human activities. How much a coast erodes or expands in any given location is due to some combination of these factors, which vary from place to place.

“There is increasing need for this kind of comprehensive assessment in all coastal environments to guide managed response to sea-level rise and storm impacts,” said Dr. Bruce Richmond of the USGS. “It is very difficult to predict what may happen in the future without a solid understanding of what has happened in the past. Comprehensive regional studies such as this are an important tool to better understand coastal change. ”

Compared to other coastal areas of the U.S., where four or more historical shoreline data sets are available, generally back to the mid-1800s, shoreline data for the coast of Alaska are limited. The researchers used two historical data sources, from the 1940s and 2000s, such as maps and aerial photographs, as well as modern data like lidar, or “light detection and ranging,” to measure shoreline change at more than 26,567 locations.