Hawaiian Islands Weather Details & Aloha Paragraphs / July 16-17, 2015

Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Thursday…along with the minimums Thursday:

84 – 77  Lihue, Kauai
90 – 79  Honolulu, Oahu – record high for Thursday was 91…back in 1979
86 – 73  Molokai
92 – 74  Kahului, Maui – record high for Thursday was 93…back in 1950
88 – 78  Kailua Kona
89 – 71  Hilo, Hawaii

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands, as of Thursday evening:

0.97  Mount Waialeale, Kauai
1.43  Oahu Forest NWR, Oahu
0.34  Puu Alii, Molokai
0.34  Lanai
0.00  Kahoolawe
0.46  Haiku, Maui
0.90  Kawainui Stream, Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph)…as of Thursday evening:

15  Poipu, Kauai – NE
21  Kahuku Trng, Oahu – SE
22  Molokai – NE
07  Lanai – NE
25  Kahoolawe – NE
20  Kahului AP, Maui – NE
24  PTA Range 17, Big Island – NW

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 13,800 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. This web cam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon shining down during the night at times. Plus, during the nights you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise and sunset too… depending upon weather conditions.

Aloha Paragraphs

There are a couple of weak tropical disturbances here in the
central Pacific – in addition to tropical storm Enrique well to
our east, and tropical storm Dolores close to Mexico…
both in the eastern Pacific
more information below

There’s areas of thunderstorms far west and south of
the state…along with the swirl of clouds associated
with tropical storm Enrique east of us as well
Looping version

Showers moving through the island chain…with
more taking aim on our area just to the east
Looping version

Showers mostly over the ocean, although arriving
over the islands locally too…some locally heavy –
looping radar image

Flood Advisory…windward coasts and slopes
of the Big Island

~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~

The trade winds will continue to blow through the rest of this week…although then falter early next week. Here’s the latest weather map, showing the Hawaiian Islands, and the rest of the North Pacific Ocean, along with a real-time wind profiler of the central Pacific. We find a rather strong, near 1035 millibar high pressure system to the northeast of the state…nearly stationary now. Meanwhile, there are tropical systems/troughs west, southwest, south and over Hawaii…moving more or less westward. The trade winds are expected to continue unabated through Sunday or so. The latest model output now suggests that our winds will be downshifting a notch or two as we push into early next week…with muggy weather returning then.

Off and on windward showers through Friday…some elsewhere at times. The forecast continues to suggest we’ll see showers arriving at times, and then drier weather returning this coming weekend. The models go on to point out this drier weather will stick around into early next week. As the winds turn noticeably softer around next Monday, we’ll see a muggy, convective weather pattern settle over us. This typically brings clear mornings, with afternoon clouds over the interior sections, which can drop showers. These lighter winds will usher in rather muggy conditions as we push into the new work week ahead. I’ll be back with more updates on all of the above and below, I hope you have a great Thursday night wherever you’re spending it! Aloha for now…Glenn.

Here on Maui…it’s 540am Thursday morning, with clear to partly cloudy conditions over the the island. There are also a few towering cumulus clouds, bordering on cumulonimbus, not far offshore from the north side of Maui and Molokai…which lit up a nice orange color at sunrise! The air temperature here in Kula, at my upcountry weather tower was 62 degrees, while it was 75 down at the Kahului airport…and 48 up at the summit of the Haleakala Crater at near the same time.

– It’s the middle of the afternoon here in upcountry Maui, under heavy duty, moisture laden dark clouds. In contrast, I can see lots of sunshine beaming down over on the north shore, and sunny to partly cloudy conditions along the leeward beaches. We’ve had a couple of sprinkles, but nothing much more here in Kula. I would be surprised if we don’t see a shower arriving before too much longer. It’s a comfortable 76.5 degrees, while at near the same time, down in Kahului it was a hot 92 degrees, with 84 readings at both Kapalua and Hana…and a cooler 52 degrees up at the top of the Haleakala Crater.

– It’s now around 6pm early Thursday evening, and there are still lots of clouds around, at least over and around the mountains. It’s a much different story down near the beaches, where skies are still quite sunny. Now at 640, we finally had a fairly modest shower, although after all the threatening these clouds did during the afternoon hours, it was nice to have a little moisture finally coming down. The shower just stopped, and the sun is shining brightly as it gets ready to set.

World-wide tropical cyclone activity:

>>> Atlantic Ocean:  There are no active tropical cyclones

A westward-moving tropical wave located more than 1000 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands is producing disorganized cloudiness and showers. Environmental conditions could be marginally conducive for some slow development of this disturbance through the weekend before becoming less conducive early next week.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent

>>> Caribbean Sea: There are no active tropical cyclones

>>> Gulf of Mexico: There are no active tropical cyclones

Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean

Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days over the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea or Atlantic Ocean

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Eastern Pacific:

Tropical Storm 05E (Dolores)…remains active in the eastern Pacific Ocean, located 295 miles southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. Here’s a graphical track map of this system.

Here’s what the hurricane models are showing for this tropical storm…along with a satellite image

Tropical Storm 06E (Enrique) remains active in the eastern Pacific Ocean, located 1745 miles west of the southern tip of Baja California. Here’s a graphical track map of system.

Here’s what the hurricane models are showing for this tropical storm…along with a satellite image

Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Central Pacific: There are no active tropical cyclones

1.)  Showers and sporadic thunderstorms associated with a weak area of low pressure, the remnants of former tropical cyclone Iune, are located about 880 miles due south of Midway atoll. Environmental conditions are expected to impede any significant redevelopment of this system into a tropical cyclone as it moves slowly westward over the next couple of days. This weak system is expected to cross the international dateline into the northwest Pacific ocean tonight or early Saturday.

* Formation chance through 48 hours, low…near 0 percent

Here’s a satellite image of this area of disturbed weather

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

>>> Northwest Pacific Ocean:

Tropical Storm 11W (Nangka) remains active in the northwest Pacific…located about 180 NM west-northwest of Camp Fuji, Japan. Here’s the JTWC graphical track map, along with a satellite image. Here’s what the computer model is showing.

Tropical storm 1C (Halola) remains active…located about 518 NM north-northwest of Ujelang. Here’s the JTWC graphical track map, along with a satellite image of this gradually strengthening tropical cyclone. Here’s what the computer models are showing.

Here’s the JTWC graphical track map, along with a satellite image of this gradually strengthening tropical cyclone.

>>> South Pacific Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones

>>> North and South Indian Oceans: There are no active tropical cyclones

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Interesting: Acidic Arctic Ocean Threatens Food Web – One byproduct of rising carbon-dioxide levels is increasing ocean acidity — a phenomenon that scientists have termed an existential threat to marine life. The waters of the Arctic and the far-north Pacific are particularly prone to acidification as a result of several natural factors, so scientists regard the region as the proverbial canary in the coal mine for the rest of the world’s oceans. A new study shows that within just fifteen years these waters may be too acidic for a range of marine animals to build and maintain their shells year round.

Ocean acidification works like this: The top layer of the ocean comes into contact with atmospheric gases, gradually dissolving them. Carbon dioxide forms carbonic acid when dissolved in water, increasing the ocean’s acidity. As ocean water acidifies, it eventually loses its ability to maintain levels of calcium carbonate minerals that many marine organisms, from tiny plankton at the bottom of the food chain to clams and crabs, require to build their shells.

The new study, published in the journal Oceanography, notes that already, “[t]he rapid accumulation of carbon dioxide in the upper thousand meters of the ocean has fundamentally altered the chemistry of seawater, making the ocean on average ~30% more acidic.”

To identify how long it would take for Pacific-Arctic waters to reach critical thresholds beyond which shelled animals would not be able to reproduce or survive, researchers from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the University of Alaska Fairbanks, and Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution spent a month on the US Coast Guard cutter Healy in the Bering, Chukchi, and Beaufort Seas off Alaska. 

From cutter Healy, they evaluated the water chemistry in the region, measuring things like temperature, salinity, and dissolved carbon. With their measurements they were able to validate the predictions of a computer model designed to predict changes in ocean acidity in the region. They then used the model to project future acidification levels in the Pacific-Arctic region.

The model predicted that levels of aragonite — a calcium-carbonate mineral critical for shell building — will fall mostly below natural thresholds for most of the year in 2025 in the Beaufort Sea, in 2027 in the Chukchi Sea, and in 2044 in the Bering Sea.

“Our research shows that within 15 years, the chemistry of these waters may no longer be saturated with enough calcium carbonate for a number of animals from tiny sea snails to Alaska King crabs to construct and maintain their shells at certain times of the year,” Jeremy Mathis, an oceanographer with NOAA and lead author of the study, said in a press release.

The ripple effects of these large-scale ecosystem disturbances are likely to be felt higher up the marine food chain. Eventually, they may have enormous economic and nutritional ramifications for human populations that rely on fish. According to the release, nearly 60 percent of the US’s commercial fisheries landings by weight are harvested in Alaska. That’s 5.8 billion pounds of seafood worth $1.9 billion annually.

“The Pacific-Arctic region, because of its vulnerability to ocean acidification, gives us an early glimpse of how the global ocean will respond to increased human-caused carbon dioxide emissions, which are being absorbed by our ocean,” Mathis said in the press release. “Increasing our observations in this area will help us develop the environmental information needed by policy makers and industry to address the growing challenges of ocean acidification.”