Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Sunday…along with the minimum temperatures Sunday:

79 – 62  Lihue, Kauai
80 – 60  Honolulu, Oahu
77 – 57  Molokai AP
81 – 56  Kahului, Maui
82 – 67  Kailua Kona
82 – 62  Hilo, Hawaii

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands, as of Sunday evening:

0.02  Mount Waialeale, Kauai
0.01  Honolulu AP, Oahu
0.04  Molokai
0.00  Lanai
0.00  Kahoolawe
0.00  Maui
0.08  Laupahoehoe, Big Island


The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph)…as of Sunday evening:


21  Mana, Kauai – SE
22  Wheeler AAF, Oahu – SE
17  Molokai – SW
18  Lanai – SW
14  Kahoolawe – SW
20  Kula 1, Maui – SW
27  Ahumoa, Big Island – S


Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 13,800 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. This web cam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon shining down during the night at times. Plus, during the nights you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise and sunset too… depending upon weather conditions.



Aloha Paragraphs

  http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/cpac/ir4.jpg
Cold front approaching northwest of Hawaii

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/hi/ir4.jpg
Leading edge of a cold front reaching Kauai by mid-day…we also
see an area of moisture over the Big Island


http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/RadarImg/hawaii.gif
Scattered showers mostly still over the ocean for the time being



~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~

 

High Wind Warning…Big Island Summits – west winds 60-80 mph
through Wednesday

Small Craft Advisory…for strengthening southwest winds through
Tuesday / 25-30 knots gusts to 40 knots

Wind Advisory…for parts of Kauai, Oahu, Molokai, Maui and Lanai –
starting 10am today / southwest winds 20-30 mph with higher gusts

High Surf Warning…rapidly rising surf along the north and west
facing shores of Kauai, and then Oahu and Molokai… and the
north shores of Maui later today


Winds increasing from the south and southwest into Monday…with wind related advisories. Here’s the latest weather map, showing the Hawaiian Islands, and the rest of the North Pacific Ocean, along with a real-time wind profiler of the central Pacific. We find high pressure systems to the east-northeast of Hawaii, with an associated ridge of high pressure over the eastern islands. At the same time, we have low pressure systems to the north-northwest and northeast, with a cold front approaching the state from the northwest. This cold front will prompt strengthening kona winds into Monday. Lighter winds will come in from the west to northwest in the wake of this next cold front later Tuesday into Wednesday. As we get into later in the upcoming new week, strong and gusty kona winds will develop again ahead of yet another cold front…arriving Friday into next weekend.

Generally pleasant weather conditions, although locally voggy…then another episode of clouds and showers later Monday and Tuesday. Here’s the looping radar image showing a few showers heading towards the leeward sides of the central islands, riding up on the southerly winds. Showers will remain limited however, before a cold front arrives over the next couple of days. We will see a few prefrontal showers along our leeward sides into Monday…and perhaps over the Big Island from the south. This next front will bring rainfall across the state into Tuesday…some of which may become locally heavy. It looks like Kauai will see the arrival of this frontal cloud band Monday afternoon, then Oahu during the night, and into Maui County and the Big Island Tuesday. The outlook includes drier weather for the state through the middle part of the new week. Looking further ahead, the models continue suggesting that yet another wet cold front will arrive next Friday into Saturday…stay tuned. I’ll be back with more information on all of the above, I hope you have a great Sunday night wherever you’re spending it! Aloha for now…Glenn.

Here in Kula, Maui: It’s mostly clear over east Maui, with clouds over the western part of the island early this Sunday morning…along with some vog. The winds are generally calm here at my place. The air temperature near its minimal reading was 48 degrees here in Kula. At the same time, it was 59 degrees down at the Kahului airport near the ocean…with 39 degrees atop the Haleakala Crater. The summit of the Big Island was an even colder 31.6 degrees atop Mauna Kea. Just for contrast, the warmest temperature across the state at the same time was 69 in Kona…on the Big Island.

~~~ It’s now 120pm Sunday afternoon, and the winds are picking up, as expected. The volcanic haze is stick thick, blocking my view of the West Maui Mountains…from here in Kula. The air temperature is pleasant at 67.8 degrees, heading towards 70 or so I imagine.

~~~ We’re just breaking into the early evening hours, with gusty kona winds blowing, and keeping the thick volcanic haze over us. There are hardly any clouds around, although clouds seem to be increasing on second glance, with radar showing a few showers over the ocean to the south…which may arrive this evening. The air temperature was 59.9 degrees at around 610pm here in Kula, while it was a warmer 76 degrees at Kapalua at the same time. The summit of the Haleakala Crater at the same time was 50 degrees…and a cold 31.2 degrees atop the summit of Mauna Kea on the Big Island – where winds were gusting to 70+ mph.


World-wide tropical cyclone activity:


>>> Atlantic Ocean: The last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season…has occurred. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2015. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.


Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean

>>> Caribbean Sea: The last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season…has occurred. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2015. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.


>>> Gulf of Mexico: The last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season…has occurred. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2015. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.


Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico.

>>> Eastern Pacific: The last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of the 2014 North Pacific hurricane season…has occurred. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on May 15, 2015. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.


Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.


Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)


>>> Central Pacific: The central north Pacific hurricane season has officially ended. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on June 1, 2015. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.


Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)


>>> Northwest Pacific Ocean: Typhoon 02W (Higos) remains active well to the east of Guam in the western Pacific, here’s the JTWC graphical track map…along with a NOAA satellite image.


 >>> South Pacific Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones

>>> North and South Indian Oceans: Tropical Cyclone 11S (Fundi) is dissipating to the south of Madagascarl, here’s the JTWC graphical track map…along with a NOAA satellite image – Final Warning

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

Interesting: Seafloor Volcano Pulses May Alter Climate – Vast ranges of volcanoes hidden under the oceans are presumed by scientists to be the gentle giants of the planet, oozing lava at slow, steady rates along mid-ocean ridges. But a new study shows that they flare up on strikingly regular cycles, ranging from two weeks to 100,000 years—and, that they erupt almost exclusively during the first six months of each year. The pulses—apparently tied to short- and long-term changes in earth’s orbit, and to sea levels–may help trigger natural climate swings. Scientists have already speculated that volcanic cycles on land emitting large amounts of carbon dioxide might influence climate; but up to now there was no evidence from submarine volcanoes. The findings suggest that models of earth’s natural climate dynamics, and by extension human-influenced climate change, may have to be adjusted.


“People have ignored seafloor volcanoes on the idea that their influence is small—but that’s because they are assumed to be in a steady state, which they’re not,” said the study’s author, marine geophysicist Maya Tolstoy of Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory. “They respond to both very large forces, and to very small ones, and that tells us that we need to look at them much more closely.” A related study by a separate team this week in the journal Science bolsters Tolstoy’s case by showing similar long-term patterns of submarine volcanism in an Antarctic region Tolstoy did not study.


Volcanically active mid-ocean ridges crisscross earth’s seafloors like stitching on a baseball, stretching some 37,000 miles. They are the growing edges of giant tectonic plates; as lavas push out, they form new areas of seafloor, which comprise some 80 percent of the planet’s crust. Conventional wisdom holds that they erupt at a fairly constant rate–but Tolstoy finds that the ridges are actually now in a languid phase. Even at that, they produce maybe eight times more lava annually than land volcanoes. Due to the chemistry of their magmas, the carbon dioxide they are thought to emit is currently about the same as, or perhaps a little less than, from land volcanoes—about 88 million metric tons a year. But were the undersea chains to stir even a little bit more, their CO2 output would shoot up, says Tolstoy.


Some scientists think volcanoes may act in concert with Milankovitch cycles–repeating changes in the shape of earth’s solar orbit, and the tilt and direction of its axis—to produce suddenly seesawing hot and cold periods. The major one is a 100,000-year cycle in which the planet’s orbit around the sun changes from more or less an annual circle into an ellipse that annually brings it closer or farther from the sun. Recent ice ages seem to build up through most of the cycle; but then things suddenly warm back up near the orbit’s peak eccentricity. The causes are not clear.


Enter volcanoes. Researchers have suggested that as icecaps build on land, pressure on underlying volcanoes also builds, and eruptions are suppressed. But when warming somehow starts and the ice begins melting, pressure lets up, and eruptions surge. They belch CO2 that produces more warming, which melts more ice, which creates a self-feeding effect that tips the planet suddenly into a warm period. A 2009 paper from Harvard University says that land volcanoes worldwide indeed surged six to eight times over background levels during the most recent deglaciation, 12,000 to 7,000 years ago. The corollary would be that undersea volcanoes do the opposite: as earth cools, sea levels may drop 100 meters, because so much water gets locked into ice. This relieves pressure on submarine volcanoes, and they erupt more. At some point, could the increased CO2 from undersea eruptions start the warming that melts the ice covering volcanoes on land?


That has been a mystery, partly because undersea eruptions are almost impossible to observe. However, Tolstoy and other researchers recently have been able to closely monitor 10 submarine eruption sites using sensitive new seismic instruments. They have also produced new high-resolution maps showing outlines of past lava flows. Tolstoy analyzed some 25 years of seismic data from ridges in the Pacific, Atlantic and Arctic oceans, plus maps showing past activity in the south Pacific.


The long-term eruption data, spread over more than 700,000 years, showed that during the coldest times, when sea levels are low, undersea volcanism surges, producing visible bands of hills. When things warm up and sea levels rise to levels similar to the present, lava erupts more slowly, creating bands of lower topography. Tolstoy attributes this not only to the varying sea level, but to closely related changes in earth’s orbit. When the orbit is more elliptical, Earth gets squeezed and unsqueezed by the sun’s gravitational pull at a rapidly varying rate as it spins daily—a process that she thinks tends to massage undersea magma upward, and help open the tectonic cracks that let it out. When the orbit is fairly (though not completely) circular, as it is now, the squeezing/unsqueezing effect is minimized, and there are fewer eruptions.


The idea that remote gravitational forces influence volcanism is mirrored by the short-term data, says Tolstoy. She says the seismic data suggest that today, undersea volcanoes pulse to life mainly during periods that come every two weeks. That is the schedule upon which combined gravity from the moon and sun cause ocean tides to reach their lowest points, thus subtly relieving pressure on volcanoes below. Seismic signals interpreted as eruptions followed fortnightly low tides at eight out of nine study sites. Furthermore, Tolstoy found that all known modern eruptions occur from January through June. January is the month when Earth is closest to the sun, July when it is farthest—a period similar to the squeezing/unsqueezing effect Tolstoy sees in longer-term cycles. “If you look at the present-day eruptions, volcanoes respond even to much smaller forces than the ones that might drive climate,” she said.


Daniel Fornari, a senior scientist at Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution not involved in the research, called the study “a very important contribution.” He said it was unclear whether the contemporary seismic measurements signal actual lava flows or just seafloor rumbles and cracking. But, he said, the study “clearly could have important implications for better quantifying and characterizing our assessment of climate variations over decadal to tens to hundreds of thousands of years cycles.”


Edward Baker, a senior ocean scientist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, said, “The most interesting takeaway from this paper is that it provides further evidence that the solid Earth, and the air and water all operate as a single system.”