Air Temperatures The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Friday:

84  Lihue, Kauai
88  Honolulu, Oahu
85  Molokai
88  Kahului, Maui
86  Kailua Kona
81  Hilo, Hawaii


Air Temperatures ranged between these warmest and coolest spots near sea level – and on the highest mountain tops on Maui and the Big Island…as of 943pm Friday evening (HST):

 

Kailua Kona – 80
Hana airport, Maui
- 73


Haleakala Summit –   50 (near 10,000 feet on Maui)
Mauna Kea Summit – 36 (13,000+ feet on the Big Island)


Hawaii’s MountainsHere’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 13,800 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. This web cam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon shining down during the night at times. Plus, during the nights you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise and sunset too… depending upon weather conditions.

 


Aloha Paragraphs

 

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Trade winds remaining active…becoming a bit lighter during
the weekend, and then even lighter from the east or southeast
Monday and Tuesday – this will have us feeling hot and muggy…
the returning trades bring refreshing relief from the heat next
Wednesday


There will be a few passing showers along the windward sides,
mostly at night…which will increase locally during the later
Sunday through Tuesday time frame

This looping satellite image shows lower level clouds, and some
high clouds in our general area too


Small Craft Wind Advisory
…windiest coasts and channels
around Maui County and the Big Island







The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph), along with directions…as of Friday evening


17  Port Allen, Kauai – NE
30  Oahu Forest NWR, Oahu – NNE
25  Molokai – NE
27  Lanai – NE
33  Kahoolawe – NE

15  Lipoa, Maui, Maui – NE

27  Pali 2, Big Island – NE


Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands…as of Friday evening (845pm totals):


0.50  Mount Waialeale, Kauai
0.18  Moanalua RG, Oahu
0.03  Molokai
0.00  Lanai
0.01  Kahoolawe
0.27  Puu Kukui, Maui
1.12  Kawainui Stream, Big Island


We can use the following links to see what’s going on in our area of the north central Pacific Ocean. Here’s the latest NOAA satellite picture – the latest looping satellite image… and finally the latest looping radar image for the Hawaiian Islands.


~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~



The trade winds will be decreasing a little Saturday, and then become even lighter later Sunday into next Tuesday. Here’s the latest weather map, showing the Hawaiian Islands, and the rest of the North Pacific Ocean, along with a real-time wind profile of the central Pacific…focused on the Hawaiian Islands. We have a moderately strong high pressure system located far to the northeast, with a cold front reaching southward…well to the north of our area. The models suggest that the trade winds will remain active, although will become softer this weekend. A trough of low pressure entering the state from the southeast will shift our winds into an even lighter reality, and bring sultry air our way later Sunday into next Tuesday…with the outside chance of some volcanic haze arriving too.

Satellite imagery shows high cirrus clouds generally south and west of the state…shifting over parts of the state now.
Looking at this larger looping satellite image, it shows low level clouds riding along in the trade wind flow from east to west. The high clouds are still around, and should provide nice colors for our sunset…along with dimming and filtering our Hawaiian sunshine during the days. Here’s the looping radar, showing just a few passing showers moving across our area, mostly along our windward sides, which will pick up some over Maui County and the Big Island. Looking into Saturday and at least part of Sunday, we’ll remain in a relatively dry period. Thereafter, there will be a couple of days of unusual off and on wet weather, at least locally…mostly from the central islands down through the Big Island end of the chain.

Favorably inclined weather conditions, with little change through the first half of the weekend. Our trade winds will ease up a little, followed by an increase in showers later Sunday into Tuesday. These showers will arrive thanks to a trough of low pressure moving northwest out of the deeper tropics…and are loosely associated with retired tropical cyclone Fausto. This will be a boon in terms of rainfall, at least in some areas, which is rather rare during our relatively dry month of July. It usually takes some sort of tropical system coming into our area from the east or southeast, to bring summertime rainfall…which is the case this time around. I’ll be back again early Saturday morning with your next new weather narrative, I hope you have a great Friday night wherever you’re spending it! Aloha for now…Glenn.

Here on Maui, at the 3,100 foot elevation, at my upper Kula, Maui weather tower, the air temperature was a relatively warm 61.5 degrees at 550am on this Friday morning. Skies are partly cloudy, with still some thin cirrus clouds in places…which lit up a nice pink to start off our last day of the work week.

We’re into the early afternoon now at 1240pm, under partly cloudy skies, a light breeze…and an air temperature of 82.4 degrees.

It’s now early evening at 510pm, under partly sunny skies, light winds…and a warm 82.4 degrees. Glancing around in my seat I can see some high cirrus clouds on the horizon, I suspect that they will light up nicely at sunset…should make for a colorful ending to our daylight hours.

Friday evening film
: there’s an abundance of good looking films that I’d like to see, however I’ve decided on one called Third Person. It stars so many great actors, which is probably the thing that pulls me in the most, including: Liam Neeson, Kim Basinger, Adrien Brody, Mila Kunis, James Franco, Olivia Wilde, Riccardo Scamarcio, Maria Bello, and Moran Atlas…among others. The synopsis: Third Person tells three stories of love, passion, trust and betrayal, in a multi-level story line reminiscent of Paul Haggis’s earlier Oscar-winning film Crash. The tales play out in New York, Paris and Rome: three couples who appear to have nothing related but share deep commonalities: lovers and estranged spouses, children lost and found.

This film isn’t getting good ratings from the critics, although the viewers are seeing it in a better light. I’m kind of looking forward to seeing it, and hopefully will like it way better than I’m thinking I might. I really like most of the actors, so that may be enough in and of itself, we’ll see. I’ll let you know what I thought either when I get home tonight, or Saturday morning. Until then, here’s the trailer for this film, and you can get a feeling for it yourself. By the way, this isn’t a light weight film, and looks like it very well may be quite heavy instead…at least in parts.


World-wide tropical cyclone activity:


Atlantic Ocean:
There are no active tropical cyclones expected through the next 5 days


Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean

Caribbean Sea:
There are no active tropical cyclones expected through the next 5 days

Gulf of Mexico:
There are no active tropical cyclones expected through the next 5 days

Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico.

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

North Eastern Pacific:
There are no active tropical cyclones through the next 5 days


Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.


Central Pacific Ocean:
No tropical cyclones are expected through the next two days


Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)


Northwest Pacific Ocean:  Tropical storm 09W (Rammasun) remains active, and will be gradually increasing in strength. Here’s the JTWC graphical track map…along with a satellite image


South Pacific Ocean:
There are no active tropical cyclones

North and South Indian Oceans:
There are no active tropical cyclones

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)


Interesting: 2014 Natural Disaster Damage and Death Toll Well Below Average - Extreme weather events and other natural disasters claimed the lives of more than 2,700 people and caused around US $42 billion in damage worldwide in the first half of 2014, but this was well below the first half of last year and a 10-year average, according to new research from reinsurer Munich Re.


However, the briefing report warns that towards the end of the year the natural climate phenomenon El Niño may impact regions differently in terms of the number and intensity of weather extremes.


During the first half of the year, 2,700 people died as a result of natural catastrophes, which was much lower than is normal during the first six months of a year (10-year average: 53,000). There were around 490 loss-relevant natural catastrophes. The highest economic losses arose in the USA (35%), followed by Europe and Asia (30% each).


“Of course, it is good news that natural catastrophes have been relatively mild so far”, said Torsten Jeworrek, Munich Re’s Board member responsible for global reinsurance business. “But we should not forget that there has been no change in the overall risk situation.


“Loss minimization measures must remain at the forefront of our considerations. They make absolute sense from a macroeconomic perspective, as lower subsequent losses mean that they mostly generate savings of several times the investment amount. And they protect human lives.”


The effect of loss susceptibility on claims was clearly demonstrated by two snowstorms in Japan. These storms in February, which hit Tokyo and central Japan in particular, brought overall losses of around US$ 5bn and insured losses of more than US$ 2.5bn, and were the most costly natural catastrophe worldwide in the first half of the year. Snowfalls of up to a meter are very unusual in the affected provinces in Japan, though they would cause very few problems in other countries. There were numerous accidents, and the roofs of many halls and greenhouses collapsed under the weight of the snow.


The record winter in North America also caused significant losses, with extremely cold temperatures and heavy snowfalls over a longer period in many parts of the USA and Canada. The losses from various blizzards totaled around US$ 3.4bn. The most costly snowstorm was in the first week of January: losses for this storm alone totaled US$ 2.5bn, of which US$ 1.7bn was insured.


In many instances the harsh winter also had a heavy impact on business, as companies were forced to stop production. At the end of January, a blizzard brought the Atlanta metropolitan area almost to a standstill, even though only a few centimeters of snow had fallen. Snow and ice made the highways impassable, as there was a lack of snow-clearing equipment for a city unused to such conditions.


According to Peter Höppe, Head of Munich Re’s Geo Risks Research Department, there is a link between the weather extremes in the northern hemisphere this winter. “These extremes – with heavy winter conditions in North America and Asia, and the extraordinarily mild winter across large parts of Europe – were due to significant and lengthy meanders in the jet stream,” said Höppe. “And scientists are still having intense debates about whether such sustained changes to patterns in the jet stream – and therefore also the frequency of such extreme and persistent weather conditions – might increase in the future due to climate change.”


The mild winter in Europe contributed to the heavy floods in England that lasted into February. As it was mainly rural areas that were affected, overall losses remained within an acceptable limit of US$ 1.3bn and insured losses were around US$ 1.1bn.


In May, heavy flooding in the Balkans as far east as Romania caused very high economic losses. It is not unusual to have intense rainfall in these countries in the spring, but the low-pressure system Yvette produced abnormally heavy and persistent rainfall. In many places, precipitation reached the highest levels ever registered since records began more than 100 years ago. High flood levels, particularly on the rivers Sava, Bosna and Danube caused overall economic losses of US$ 4bn, making this the second most costly natural catastrophe in the world in the first half of the year. However, the relatively low level of insurance penetration meant that insured losses were not very high.


A storm front that passed over western Germany on 9 June caused high insured losses. There was localized heavy damage caused by wind squalls and hailstones, particularly around Düsseldorf. Overall, insured losses were US$ 890m, and overall losses amounted to around US$ 1.2bn. The storm front had previously passed through France and Belgium, causing major damage in the Yvelines Départment of France. Overall losses in the various countries amounted to US$ 3.1bn, of which US$ 2.5bn was insured.


The tornado season in the USA, which peaks from May to July, has been below average so far. The US weather agency NOAA recorded 721 tornadoes until end of June, in comparison to an average of 1,026 in the years 2005–2013. However, some tornado outbreaks caused significant damage. Videos filmed on 17 June showed an extremely rare twin tornado in the State of Nebraska. The two tornadoes were both classified at the second-highest scale 4, with wind speeds of over 260 km/h, and they caused serious damage in the small town of Pilger.


Over the rest of the year, weather events will probably see increasing impact from ENSO, a naturally occurring phenomenon that involves fluctuating ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific. “With the contrary effects of El Niño and La Niña, ENSO can influence weather patterns in many parts of the world”, said Höppe. “It currently looks as though a moderate El Niño will develop by the autumn, with warm water from the South Pacific moving from west to east, thus shifting wind systems and precipitation across the Pacific basin.”


Hurricane activity in the northern Atlantic normally decreases during El Niño phases. The number of typhoons in the northwest Pacific usually increases, but they make landfall more rarely. Tornado activity increases in the USA. “This gives a different distribution of losses across regions. Globally, our loss database NatCatSERVICE records no significant differences in overall losses in moderate El Niño years when compared to neutral years, whereas losses are significantly lower in years with a strong El Niño”, said Höppe. The stronger the El Niño, the more likely it is that there will be a La Niña in the following year, when hurricane activity tends to increase.