Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Monday:
78 Lihue, Kauai
78 Honolulu, Oahu
81 Kahului, Maui
83 Kona, Hawaii
77 Hilo, Hawaii
Air Temperatures ranged between these warmest and coolest spots near sea level – and on the highest mountain tops on Maui and the Big Island…as of 743pm Monday evening:
Kahului, Maui – 76
Hilo, Hawaii – 69
Haleakala Summit – 46 (near 10,000 feet on Maui)
Mauna Kea Summit – 32 (13,000+ feet on the Big Island)
Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 13,800 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. This web cam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon shining down during the night at times. Plus, during the nights you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise and sunset too… depending upon weather conditions.
Locally strong winds…otherwise light to moderate
breezes elsewhere – voggy in places
Off and on light showers locally…gradual
improvement going forward
Flood Advisory…on the Big Island – until 8am
The following numbers represent the most recent top wind gusts (mph), along with directions…as of Monday evening:
30 Puu Lua, Kauai – NE
20 Kuaokala, Oahu – ENE
21 Molokai – SE
25 Lanai – SE
22 Kahoolawe – ESE
35 Kahului, Maui – SW
15 Upolu airport, Big Island – SW
Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands…as of Monday evening (545pm totals):
0.23 Mount Waialeale, Kauai
0.25 Manoa Lyon Arboretum, Oahu
0.77 Kula 1, Maui
1.06 Mountain View, Big Island
We can use the following links to see what’s going on in our area of the north central Pacific Ocean. Here’s the latest NOAA satellite picture – the latest looping satellite image… and finally the latest looping radar image for the Hawaiian Islands.
~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~
Locally strong winds over a few places, although generally lighter in most areas from the southeast. Here’s the latest weather map, showing the Hawaiian Islands, and the rest of the North Pacific Ocean. Here’s a real-time wind profile of the central Pacific…centered on the Hawaiian Islands. ~~~ We find a Kona Low pressure system to the northwest of the islands, with an associated trough of low pressure draping southward from its center. At the same time, we see high pressure systems offshore to the northeast and northwest of Hawaii…with associated ridges. Winds will remain locally gusty for the time being, and then gradually calm down from the south and southeast. It may take until late this week before the trade winds return.
Satellite imagery continues to show considerable clouds over the state…although with some thinning spots appearing here and there. Most of this cloudiness, or at least a large part, consists of high and middle level clouds…which will keep our Hawaiian sunshine muted into Tuesday. There are some lower level clouds around as well, although not that many. Here’s the looping radar image, showing light to moderate showers over and around Oahu, Maui County…and over parts of the Big Island as well. As the NWS flash flood watch remains active over Kauai, there will continue to be the chance of more heavy showers on that already soaked island. Looking at this larger satellite image, which is in the looping mode, we can see the distinct counterclockwise rotating Kona Low over the ocean to our northwest. The circulation is carrying loads of moisture over the state…from the deeper tropics to our southwest.
This Kona Low pressure system continues to exist many hundreds of miles to the northwest of the state. Kona low pressure systems haven’t been that common over the last several years or longer. This particular Kona Low will continue to bring clouds and a few generally light showers to our islands into Tuesday, with the potentially heaviest precipitation to Kauai. The islands of Oahu, Maui County and the Big Island will pick up some rainfall…although none of these islands have any sort of flood advisory or watch. This unsettled weather pattern will continue to make our atmosphere cloudy and locally showery, although with some improvement, as this low pressure system gradually fills over the next few days. I’ll be back early Tuesday morning with your next new weather narrative from paradise, I hope you have a great Monday night wherever you’re spending it! Aloha for now…Glenn.
Here on Maui, at the 3,100 foot elevation, at my upper Kula, Maui weather tower, the air temperature was 61F degrees at 720am on this Monday morning. The long lasting overcast continues to blanket our islands, although lots of it is of the high and middle level variety. This leaves the mountains showing, with just a few lower level clouds appearing below. Here in Kula, everything is wet from the rains we had yesterday afternoon into the night. It’s not raining at the moment, although it has that look and feel of showers. Most of the precipitation this morning around the state, is falling from these middle level clouds, rather than the usual lower level cumulus clouds. These middle level clouds are called altostratus, and they typically bring light to moderately heavy showers.
~~~ The sun is out here in Kula at 1010am! It’s muted sunshine through the high cirrus clouds, although its warm out on my deck. It may not last long, so I’d better get back out there and soak up these rays, The air temperature was 68.9 degrees here, while it was a warmer 77 down at the Kahului airport at near the same time. If feels so good, I love it.
~~~ Ok, here it is 1230pm now, and so much for the sunshine. The warm sun has faded at the moment, although looking at the radar image above, it wouldn’t be surprising to see it return at times this afternoon…we’ll see. There’s been no rain whatsoever today, not a drop, which is pretty different than the last several days. This looping radar image shows that the middle level clouds continue to be carried across the islands, from the southwest. These are the middle level clouds, which are dropping light showers locally…mostly over the nearby ocean at the time of this writing. Personally, I’m ok with having a few more passing showers arrive, which continues to look fairly likely.
~~~ It’s 4pm HST when I begin writing these words, here in my Kula Weather Tower. Today has had several changes, from totally cloudy, to partly sunny, to high overcast, to fog, to now very hazy with developing fog…and quickly cooling temperatures. As a little weather boy, I used to love these changes, and that great love of change has stuck with me through my life. Radar images continue to show that most of the light to moderately heavy showers remain offshore of the islands, although slipping onshore in places here and there. It appears, despite the continued flash flood watch near Kauai, that that island is most directly in the clear. The closer proximity to the Kona Low to our northwest however…is the reason why. / Meanwhile, checking the numbers on my Google Account, I see that thus far today, there have been 15,106 visits to this website, while there was 21,482 yesterday. As for the Google Ad clicks, yesterday there were 98, while today so far there have been 59. The point? I just want to thank you for being an active visitor!
~~~ We’ve pushed into the early evening hours, at just before 6pm, with an air temperature of 66.9 degrees. It’s a bit breezy, with lowering clouds in most directions now. It feels as if there could be a shower moving this way, although looking out at my ping pong table, out on my weather deck, I don’t see any drops yet. It seems more like precipitation now, than it has all day, I’ll let you know if something happens in the next few minutes. It’s more than a few minutes, although now at 830pm here, pea soup fog has enveloped my weather tower, and the air temperature had dropped to 64.8 degrees. I can hear a peacock sounding off in the distance, that’s unusual. I’m about ready to hit the hay, see you in the morning.
World-wide tropical cyclone activity:
Atlantic Ocean: The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st through November 30th.
Here’s the 2013 hurricane season summary
Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean
Gulf of Mexico:
Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico.
Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)
Eastern Pacific: The Eastern Pacific hurricane season runs from May 15th through November 30th. Here’s the 2013 hurricane season summary
Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.
Central Pacific Ocean: The Central Pacific hurricane season runs from June 1st through November 30th. Here’s the 2013 hurricane season summary
Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)
Western Pacific Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones
South Pacific Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones
North and South Indian Oceans: There are no active tropical cyclones
Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
Interesting: Predicting the Climate of the future – Climate scientists rely on models to predict how the weather and climate will respond to changes in variable such as CO2 emissions, natural methane emissions, solar intensity and a host of other factors. No individual model can claim to accurately predict future climate. So it is very important to look at multiple models and compare their predictions. The Carnegie Institution for Science is a leader in this area.
The pace of global warming over the last century has been about twice as rapid over land than over the oceans and will continue to be more dramatic going forward if emissions are not curbed. According to an analysis of 27 climate models by Carnegie’s Chris Field, if we continue along the current emissions trajectory, we are likely facing the most rapid large climate change in the last 65 million years. This will clearly pose great challenges for a variety of terrestrial ecosystems.
Field, director of Carnegie’s Department of Global Ecology, will discuss his work on the pace of climate change at a news briefing during the AAAS annual meeting on February 13 and also during a panel on the state of climate science the following day. Climate science is poised to make major headlines this year with the release of some major international reports. As we move forward to the next stage of climate research, the panelists will discuss the state of the risk and emerging challenges.
Field conducted a detailed review of climate change literature, including the aspects of climate change that drive biological response, comparisons of the pace and magnitude of past and predicted-future climate change, and the way the physics of the atmosphere and oceans respond to changes in concentrations of greenhouse gases.
He found that if unchecked, the mean yearly rate of 21st century global warming could exceed 3.6 °F ( 2 °C) over most terrestrial regions during the period spanning from 2046 to 2065 and then increase to 7.2 °F (4 °C) during the period spanning 2081 to 2100.