Hawaii Weather Today » 2010

January 11-12, 2010

Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures were recorded across the state of Hawaii Monday afternoon:

Lihue, Kauai – 76
Honolulu, Oahu – 82
Kaneohe, Oahu – 77
Kaunakakai, Molokai – 78
Kahului, Maui – 81
Hilo, Hawaii – 82
Kailua-kona – 82

Air Temperatures ranged between these warmest and coolest spots near sea level around the state – and on the highest mountains…at 5pm Monday evening:

Port Allen, Kauai – 81F
Lihue, Kauai – 73

Haleakala Crater – 55 (near 10,000 feet on Maui)
Mauna Kea summit – 45 (near 14,000 feet on the Big Island)

Precipitation Totals – The following numbers represent the largest precipitation totals (inches) during the last 24 hours on each of the major islands, as of Monday afternoon:

0.02 Anahola, Kauai
0.30 Waimanalo, Oahu
0.02 Molokai
0.00 Lanai
0.00 Kahoolawe
0.52 West Wailuaiki, Maui
0.16 Honokaa, Big Island

Marine Winds – Here’s the latest (automatically updated) weather map showing a dissipating cold front near the Big Island. At the same time we have a high pressure center to our east-northeast. Our winds will be light and variable with a tendency to southeast later Tuesday…then back to the north and northeast Wednesday.

Satellite and Radar Images: To view the cloud conditions we have here in Hawaii, please use the following satellite links, starting off with this Infrared Satellite Image of the islands to see all the clouds around the state during the day and night. This next image is one that gives close images of the islands only during the daytime hours, and is referred to as a Close-up visible image. This next image shows a larger view of the Pacific…giving perspective to the wider ranging cloud patterns in the Pacific Ocean. Finally, here’s a L o op ing I R satellite image, making viewable the clouds around the islands 24 hours a day. To help you keep track of where any showers may be around the islands, here’s the latest animated radar image.

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live webcam on the summit of near 14,000 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. The tallest peak on the island of Maui is the Haleakala Crater, which is near 10,000 feet in elevation. These two webcams are available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon rising just after sunset for an hour or two! Plus, during the nights and early mornings you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise too…depending upon weather conditions.

Tropical Cyclone activity in the eastern and central Pacific – Here’s the latest weather information coming out of the National Hurricane Center, covering the eastern north Pacific. You can find the latest tropical cyclone information for the central north Pacific (where Hawaii is located) by clicking on this link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center. Here’s a tracking map covering both the eastern and central Pacific Ocean. A satellite image, which shows the entire ocean area between Hawaii and the Mexican coast…can be found here.

Aloha Paragraphs

Very large breaking waves along the north shores now!

A cold front brought some rather modest showers to the islands…which is dissipating over the Big Island Monday night. This front wasn’t a big rainfall producer, but at least brought some limited precipitation locally. The Big Island windward sides have the best chance for a few showers tonight, with some of the remnant moisture spreading back to the windward sides of Maui at times too. The islands of Kauai and Oahu will see generally fair weather into Tuesday. The next cold front forecast to approach our area, will move in our direction at mid-week. Just exactly what influence this front will have, besides bringing cooler winds our way…is still a bit uncertain as far as rainfall goes. The best opportunity for showers would be over the island of Kauai, closest to the weakening cold front.

As far as winds go, they are slightly cooler from the northeast now…and will be losing strength Tuesday. This air will be relatively dry, especially over Kauai and Oahu…outside the leftover moisture from the retiring cold front further south in the chain. The northeast direction will help to keep those clouds around Maui and the Big Island, hugging the windward coasts and slopes. As the next cold front approaches, our winds will take on a more east and southeast orientation Tuesday. This may once again bring a short period of hazy weather our way, as the volcanic emissions get carried towards the islands of Maui County. As the cold front gets closer, our winds will swing all the way around to south and southwest, and perhaps get locally gusty…especially over the taller mountains on the Big Island. The airflow in the wake of the Wednesday cold front will be brisk, and carry slightly cooler air into our area briefly, before warmer trade winds return.

We saw extra large to giant swells breaking along our north and west facing beaches Monday. This swell will be one of the largest swells of the winter season…although had peaked early Monday morning, and will be slowly diminishing into Tuesday. This winter will have more than the ordinary amount of these larger than normal swells arriving…as we’ve seen since winter started back in December! Looking further ahead, another very large swell will build late in the day Wednesday, remaining large for a couple of days thereafter. Then, during the second half of this coming weekend, yet another very large NW swell arrive. In between these extra large swell days, we’ll have just plain old large swells breaking along our north and west facing shores. This is the time of year when we often see these frequent high surf episodes, with the current swell being large enough…to keep high surf warning level waves breaking at the time of this writing.

It’s Monday evening, as I begin writing the last section of today’s narrative. As noted above, we have slightly cooler northeast breezes coming into the state now, along with a dissipating cold front over the Big Island. This satellite image, shows the cold front having moved over our southernmost island. Despite the presence of this dissipating cloud band, it has basically run out of water, or at least for the most part. This looping radar image demonstrates this fact quite well, although if you look closely, there are a few showers along the Hamakua coast of the Big Island, stretching across the Alenuihaha Channel onto the east Maui windward slopes as well. This dry weather pattern has become the norm this winter, and will very likely hold true for the next cold front, arriving around Wednesday. This of course isn’t good news for the islands of Maui and the Big Island, or for the other islands as well, which are all drier than normal now. As I’ve mentioned many times lately, this reality goes hand in hand with the El Nino condition, which is keeping us in drought conditions currently. ~~~

I’m getting a late start on my evening weather narrative update, but at least it’s still light enough here in Kihei, for me to see what’s happening out the window. There’s actually quite a few clouds out there, with what looks like some showers falling along the windward sides here on Maui. The winds are still coming a bit more out of the north than normal, so that there is still a slight chill to the air, in a tropical sense. I’d best be getting on the road, as even leaving now, it will likely be dark, or just before that by the time I get home to Kula. I’ll be back early Tuesday morning with your next new weather narrative from paradise. I hope you have a great Monday night until then! Aloha for now…Glenn.

Interesting: Scientists at NASA and the National Snow and Ice Data Center published research last week in the Journal of Geophysical Research based on satellite microwave data of seasonal Arctic ice thaw from 1970 to 2009. The study indicates the seasonal Arctic sea ice melt season is now about 20 days longer than it was 30 years ago.

The growing season of thaw is most pronounced in Arctic waters off the coasts of Alaska and Canada, including the Chukchi and Beaufort seas, where the season is 30 days longer now than in 1979. East Greenland and the Hudson Bay also share nearly a month longer of seasonal melt. The Hudson Bay exhibits one of the fastest increases in seasonal melt on the globe.

On average, seasonal melt has increased about 2.5 days per decade and lasts 3.7 days longer — an average of just under 20 days since 1979. "With the exception of the Sea of Okhotsk, all areas in the Arctic show a trend toward earlier melt onset and also a trend toward later freeze up," researchers said in their published report.

Scientists suggest that the longer melt season creates a feedback loop further accelerating warming in the region. When the ice melts, darker ocean water absorbs more heat from the sun. With a longer melt season there is more time for these dark waters to absorb more heat, adding further to ice loss.

The delayed fall freeze also means thinner ice reforms every season, leading to increased ice loss in the coming thaw next season. NASA has recently published research showing that average thickness of Arctic sea ice shrank 2.2 feet between the winters of 2004 and 2008, with the surface area covered by multi-year ice shrinking by more than 42 percent.

Interesting2: It is very cold in most of the US this winter. It brings to mind is it so cold that you can freeze to death as well as what happened to global warming? Cooling as well as warming trends have happened before and will happen again. Back in the 1970’s for example winters turned significantly colder for awhile.

Meteorologists are quick to point out that reliable U.S. weather data goes back only to the late 1800s, so it’s normal for records of various types to be broken every year, somewhere, when dealing with such a relatively brief data set. Any given day or year may set a record. For global warming it is the long term trend that is important. When cold air hits your body, blood will move away from your skin, fingers and toes and towards the inner core.

This process is called vasoconstriction, and it helps limit the amount of heat you lose to the environment. The opposite effect is called vasco-dilation where blood goes to the skin and heat is lost to the cold air (though you feel warm). This is what happens when one drinks too much alcohol. Shivering also occurs when you get cold. Major shivering also occurs when your body core temperature drops very low.

This is called hypothermia. This normally will not happen except under severe and prolonged exposure. If you’re wet and cold, your body loses heat up to 25 times faster. So being in wet clothing may cause more damage than just being in cold weather. Even sweat may do this.

The wind will also cool a person. In summer it a a cool refreshing breeze. In winter it is called wind chill. Normal core body temperature is 98.6 degrees Fahrenheit (F). Mild hypothermia sets in at about 95 degrees F. Below 70 degrees F, you are said to have profound hypothermia and death can occur.

A person in hypothermia may be unconscious and may appear dopey or intoxicated. The record for the lowest body temperature at which an adult has been known to survive is 56.7 degrees F, which occurred after the person was submersed in cold, icy water, according to Castellani of the U.S. Army Research Institute of Environmental Medicine.

Frostbite, an injury caused by freezing, is more common in everyday scenarios. This is because fingers and toes are more easily isolated from the body higher temperatures. Since frostbite is brought on by freezing, you can’t get frostbite if the air temperature is above 32 degrees F. "It takes a wind chill temperature of around minus 15 degrees [F] where you start to see an increase in the incident of frostbite," Castellani said.

Interesting3: A strip of paper infused with carbon nanotubes can quickly and inexpensively detect a toxin produced by algae in drinking water. Engineers at the University of Michigan led the development of the new biosensor. The paper strips perform 28 times faster than the complicated method most commonly used today to detect microcystin-LR, a chemical compound produced by cyanobacteria, or blue-green algae. Cyanobacteria is commonly found on nutrient-rich waters.

Microcystin-LR (MC-LR), even in very small quantities, is suspected to cause liver damage and possibly liver cancer. The substance and others like it are among the leading causes of biological water pollution. It is believed to be a culprit of mass poisonings going back to early human history, said Nicholas Kotov, a professor in the departments of Chemical Engineering, Biomedical Engineering and Materials Science and Engineering who led the project.

Water treatment plants — even in developed countries — can’t always remove MC-LR completely, nor can they test for it often enough, Kotov said. The biosensor he and his colleagues developed provides a quick, cheap, portable and sensitive test that could allow water treatment plants and individuals to verify the safety of water on a more regular basis.

"The safety of drinking water is a vital issue in many developing countries and in many parts of the United States," Kotov said. "We’ve developed a simple and inexpensive technology to detect multiple toxins." The technology could easily be adapted to detect a variety harmful chemicals or toxins in water or food.

Interesting4: The US Geological Survey reports that earthquake related deaths numbered 1783 worldwide, a big decrease from 2008 when more than 88,000 died, with more than 87,000 of the deaths occurring in the Eastern Sichuan, China earthquake in May 2008. In 2009, the worst earthquake was the September 30th earthquake in Southern Sumatra, Indonesia in which 1,117 people were killed.

Overall, earthquakes took the lives of people in 15 countries on four continents during 2009, including Afghanistan, Bhutan, China, Costa Rica, Greece, Indonesia, Italy, Kazakhstan, Honduras, Japan, Malawi, Samoa, South Africa and Tonga, as well as the U.S. territory of American Samoa. Earthquakes injured people in 11 additional countries, including the mainland United States, where a magnitude 4.4 earthquake on May 2 injured one person in the Los Angeles area.

The biggest 2009 earthquake in the 50 United States was, once again, in the Aleutian Islands of Alaska. The magnitude 6.5 earthquake occurred in the Fox Islands on Oct. 13. It was felt at the towns of Akutan and Unalaska, but caused no casualties or damage. The largest earthquake for the year in the contiguous United States was a magnitude 5.2 event on Oct. 2 in the Owens Valley southeast of Lone Pine, Calif.

Because of the sparse population in the epicentral area, this quake caused no damage although it was felt as far away as Merced and Los Angeles, Calif. and Las Vegas, Nev. The past year also marked the five-year anniversary of the magnitude 9.1 Sumatra-Andaman Island earthquake and subsequent tsunami on Dec. 26, 2004. That quake and tsunami killed 227,898 people, which is the fourth largest casualty toll for earthquakes and the largest toll for a tsunami in recorded history.

As a consequence of that earthquake, the USGS has significantly improved its earthquake notification and response capabilities. Improvements include the addition of nine real-time seismic stations across the Caribbean basin, a seismic and tsunami prone region near the U.S. southern border, implementation of a 24×7 earthquake operations center at the USGS National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC), and development of innovative tools for rapid evaluation of population exposure and damage to potentially damaging earthquakes.

The USGS estimates that several million earthquakes occur throughout the world each year, although most go undetected because they hit remote areas or have very small magnitudes. The USGS NEIC publishes the locations for about 40 earthquakes per day, or about 14,500 annually, using a publication threshold of magnitude 4.5 or greater worldwide or 2.5 or greater within the United States. On average, only 18 of these earthquakes occur at a magnitude of 7.0 or higher each year.

Interesting5: Smog in urban areas often makes the news. But truth be told, air quality is often much worse inside our homes than outside. That’s because tens of thousands of chemicals, some synthetic and some found in nature, are used to make products commonly found in buildings. Many of these chemicals are benign, some are highly toxic, and most fall in that wide gray area in between.

When it comes to indoor air contamination, the biggest culprit in our homes is VOCs, a large class of chemicals that can evaporate, or off gas, from stuff that’s all around us, like particle board, carpet, paint, cleaning products, and materials treated with stain-resistant and wrinkle-resistant chemicals.

VOCs can aggravate respiratory ailments like asthma, and have been linked to cancer and damage to nervous and reproductive systems. Will exposure to VOCs and other indoor air pollutants, such as mold or wood smoke, make you sick? This may sound like a cop-out, but the answer is—it depends.

It depends on the nature of the pollutant, your general health, the level of exposure and length of time you’re exposed, whether that pollutant might combine with other pollutants in your home or in your body to create a more dangerous compound, and other environmental and genetic factors.

Without clear answers, health experts say it’s prudent to take commonsense steps to limit your exposure to polluting chemicals. You might want to take extra precautions if there are people in your household who are at higher risk of being harmed by indoor air pollutants. These include infants and children and people with asthma, other respiratory conditions, compromised immune systems, or chemical sensitivities.

Interesting6: A new study by a researcher at Ben-Gurion University of the Negev (BGU) reveals that physicians’ moods impact the number of prescriptions, referrals and lab tests ordered, as well as the amount of time they spend talking with their patients. The findings of the study "Communicating with Patients, Prescribing Medications and Referring to Tests and Specialists: Associations with Physician Burnout and Moods" were recently presented at the 14th International Conference of the Israel National Institute for Health Policy by Prof. Talma Kushnir, Department of the Sociology of Health, BGU Faculty of Health Sciences.

Prof. Kushnir surveyed 188 primary physicians in Israel to determine whether doctors changed their professional behavior on good mood days, as well as days when they felt stressed, tired or anxious. Physicians’ burnout levels were also assessed. The study asked doctors to rank how their mood affected the extent they talked to patients, prescribed medications, sent them to lab or diagnostic tests and referred patients to a specialist.

Her findings show that a good or bad mood affected all five physician behaviors. On days the doctors felt positive moods, they spoke more to patients, wrote fewer prescriptions, ordered fewer tests and issued fewer referrals. However, when doctors were in a bad mood, they did the opposite. Additionally, if the physicians’ burnout level was higher, their moods more strongly impacted their behaviors.

"The finding that on bad mood days physicians tend to talk less, and may needlessly prescribe and refer more than on good mood days, implies that negative moods may be detrimental to quality and costly to healthcare systems," says Prof. Kushnir. Conversely, positive moods that have the opposite effects may help contain costs."

January 10-11, 2010

Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures were recorded across the state of Hawaii Sunday afternoon:

Lihue, Kauai – 78
Honolulu, Oahu – 80
Kaneohe, Oahu – 82
Kaunakakai, Molokai – 81
Kahului, Maui – 82
Hilo, Hawaii – 85
Kailua-kona – 82

Air Temperatures ranged between these warmest and coolest spots near sea level around the state – and on the highest mountains…at 5pm Sunday evening:

Kailua-kona – 80F
Molokai airport – 70

Haleakala Crater – 54 (near 10,000 feet on Maui)
Mauna Kea summit – 46 (near 14,000 feet on the Big Island)

Precipitation Totals – The following numbers represent the largest precipitation totals (inches) during the last 24 hours on each of the major islands, as of Sunday afternoon:

0.68 Kokee, Kauai
0.40 Schofield South, Oahu
0.00 Molokai
0.00 Lanai
0.00 Kahoolawe
0.02 Puu Kukui, Maui
0.01 Saddle Quarry, Big Island

Marine Winds – Here’s the latest (automatically updated) weather map showing a high pressure ridge near the Big Island. At the same time, we see a cold front moving down through the state. Our winds will be light SW ahead of the front. Winds behind the cold front will be northwest…finally turning north to northeast through Monday.

Satellite and Radar Images: To view the cloud conditions we have here in Hawaii, please use the following satellite links, starting off with this Infrared Satellite Image of the islands to see all the clouds around the state during the day and night. This next image is one that gives close images of the islands only during the daytime hours, and is referred to as a Close-up visible image. This next image shows a larger view of the Pacific…giving perspective to the wider ranging cloud patterns in the Pacific Ocean. Finally, here’s a L o op ing I R satellite image, making viewable the clouds around the islands 24 hours a day. To help you keep track of where any showers may be around the islands, here’s the latest animated radar image.

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live webcam on the summit of near 14,000 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. The tallest peak on the island of Maui is the Haleakala Crater, which is near 10,000 feet in elevation. These two webcams are available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon rising just after sunset for an hour or two! Plus, during the nights and early mornings you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise too…depending upon weather conditions.

Tropical Cyclone activity in the eastern and central Pacific – Here’s the latest weather information coming out of the National Hurricane Center, covering the eastern north Pacific. You can find the latest tropical cyclone information for the central north Pacific (where Hawaii is located) by clicking on this link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center. Here’s a tracking map covering both the eastern and central Pacific Ocean. A satellite image, which shows the entire ocean area between Hawaii and the Mexican coast…can be found here.

Aloha Paragraphs

Cold front moving through the state

An active Pacific cold front is moving down through the Hawaiian Islands, which is expected to stall somewhere near Maui or perhaps as far south as the Big Island…bringing cooler air out way. Glancing at this satellite image, we see the leading edge of the frontal cloud band having entered Maui County, with the island of Kauai already starting to clear…on the other end of the frontal boundary.

There’s still a question as to how far this next cold front will push into the state, although it looks like a good chance of it reaching the Big Island with at least some showers over the next couple of days. The next cold front, destined to get close to the state, will be in our vicinity by mid-week. Just exactly what influence this front will have, besides bringing cooler winds our way…is still up in the air.

We continue to see large to extra large swells breaking along our north and west facing beaches. Sunday saw a new very large, to near giant NW swell arriving, which will remain around into Monday and Tuesday. Looking even further ahead, yet another very large swell will build late in the day Wednesday, remaining large for several days thereafter. This is the time of year when we often see these frequent high surf events, with the current swell being large enough, to keep high surf warning level waves breaking.

It’s Sunday evening, as I begin writing the last section of today’s narrative. This satellite image, showing a larger area than the one above, displays the cold front progressing down over the southern part of the island chain. Here’s the latest looping radar image, showing a thin line of light showers along the leading edge of this cold front…although they seem to be diminishing with time.. What’s liable to happen is that the front will stall out someplace between Maui and the Big Island. This will leave the remnant moisture over those islands, which is a good thing. This is true, at least in providing some showers. The winds are already turning north and northeast behind the cold front, and even out ahead of it here on Maui early Sunday evening…which are cool. These winds will help to keep the clouds and some showers falling along the windward sides of these islands for a couple of days. The leeward sides likely won’t see much of this precipitation. This reality will stay in place through Monday, and perhaps into Tuesday, at least until the Kona winds start blowing ahead of the next cold front, forecast to arrive sometime around mid-week. ~~~ Looking out the windows of my Kula weather tower early Sunday evening, it’s become quite cloudy, after a lovely day of sunshine. At the same time, we have quite a bit of haze in our local skies too. As the north to northeast winds have a chance to blow a while longer, most areas will become less hazy on Monday. ~~~ I’m kind of excited about this rainfall just on our doorstep here on Maui, as the radar image above shows. It will likely be dark already before the rains arrive in upcountry Maui, but I’ll still look forward to hearing it fall in the dark. I love to see the rains falling during the daylight hours, as I consider it a treat to behold. I’ll be back early Monday morning with your next new weather narrative. I’m hoping that this cold front will make it across the Alenuihaha Channel to the Big Island, we’ll talk more about that in the morning. I hope you have a great Sunday night until then! Aloha for now…Glenn.

Extra: Inside with Paul Horn…youtube video

Interesting: Antarctica is warming, but not melting anything like as much as expected. In fact, during the continent’s summer this time last year, there was less melting than at any time in the 30 years that we have had reliable satellite measurements of the region.

The apparent contradiction is explained by the seasonal pattern of warming, say two glaciologists writing in Eos, the weekly newspaper of the American Geophysical Union. The continent’s winters and springs have warmed most, but it is still too cold in these seasons for anything to melt.

Melting in Antarctica happens almost entirely in the summers, which have warmed very little, say Andrew Monaghan of the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado, and Marco Tedesco of the City College of New York. John King of the British Antarctic Survey, based in Cambridge, warned against misinterpreting the lack of summer warming.

"Climate change denialists will use this work as evidence that Antarctica is not warming, despite the authors saying their works show no such thing," he said. Every year is different, says Tedesco. "In 2005, we had summer melting occurring inland as well as over the coastal ice shelves, and over areas up to 2500 meters above sea level."

And even during the exceptionally low melt of last summer, ice on the Antarctic Peninsula, which stretches out towards South America, continued to melt. The Wilkins ice shelf, which is attached to the peninsula, has been collapsing rapidly since February 2008.

The continent’s huge ice sheets contain enough frozen water to raise sea levels globally by around 60 meters. Tedesco and Monaghan say the main factor in how much they warm each summer is the strength of the winds that circle the continent. Circumpolar winds act as a barrier to warm air.

They have become stronger over the past four decades, effectively sealing off most of the continent each summer from the effects of global warming. The circumpolar winds appear to have strengthened because the ozone layer in the stratosphere has thinned.

This has made the lower stratosphere cooler and generated stronger winds beneath. But Tedesco warns that as the ozone hole heals in the coming decades, the winds will weaken, the continent will become much warmer in summer – and melting will increase.

Interesting2: The cold spell blanketing the Deep South was good news for some fruit growers, though the latest round of extreme weather has created worries for other farmers after the drought and drenching rains of 2009. "Right now, we’re letting nature take care of itself," said Joe Mitcham Jr., whose 100 acres of peaches are the largest orchard in Louisiana.

His peaches need 850 to 1,000 hours of temperatures below 45 degrees, and he expected to be well into 700 hours by next week. The effects of the latest weather swing may be more ominous for growers of citrus, strawberries and other specialties — depending on how long the cold snap lasts and, particularly for fish farmers, how abruptly it warms back up.

Alabama catfish producers, for example, could see greater-than-normal winter kill. Crawfish become lethargic and don’t eat, so farmers can’t catch them because they won’t go after the bait in traps until the waters warm up. It’s been almost 14 years since the area has had such a long and biting cold snap, said National Weather Service meteorologist Robert Ricks.

He expected temperatures to trend back toward more normal, above-freezing temperatures next week. Because most non-citrus fruits require an extended season of chilling to produce a good crop, they’re not big in warmer parts of the Deep South: fewer than 400 acres of peaches in Louisiana, and 1,000 acres of peaches and 250 acres of apples in Mississippi.

Even for peaches, it may be too cold for the best results, said Gary D. Gray, a regional extension agent based in Chilton County, Ala., where about 2,500 acres — 80 percent of the state’s crop — are grown. He said the best chilling occurs between 32 degrees and 50 degrees.

In Georgia, temperatures dipping into the 20s and 30s were helping the state’s 10,000 acres of peaches rack up the chilling hours needed to mature, said Charles Hall, executive director of the Georgia Fruit and Vegetable Growers Association. Apples need about the same amount of cold or a bit more, said Mike Reeves, regional agent for northeast Alabama.

The state has about 250 acres of apples, a state extension service spokeswoman said. The unusual cold also could kill off insects that might otherwise wreak havoc on blueberries or already hard-hit row crops later this season.

"It has been a wacky year," Mississippi State University agricultural economist John Michael Riley said. There was a slow start for some crops in 2009, with rains delaying spring planting.

Then came a dramatic dry-out, and high hopes for decent yields for crops like soybeans, cotton and sweet potatoes virtually washed away for many producers by near-constant rains at the peak of the traditional harvest. "The probability of something like this happening was always there," Riley said.

"It just happened to go down this year." Economists have estimated revenue losses for major row crops in Louisiana and Mississippi at more than $800 million, and Riley believes a federal emergency aid package will be needed to help some producers stay in business in 2010.

In many cases, 2009’s losses compounded those felt in 2008. That year was hit by hurricanes Gustav and Ike, high fuel and production costs, and wildly fluctuating prices on the commodities market.

Congress has yet to act on a bailout. At least half of Louisiana’s citrus crop is already picked, but farmers will have problems if temperatures drop to 22 degrees or below, said Alan Vaughn of the Louisiana State University AgCenter.

Growers with at least 4,000 trees will be able to get the labor to pick the rest and the coolers to hold the fruit for months, he said — but smaller growers, with a few hundred trees, don’t have the labor or storage capacity. The fruit, un-cooled, is good for about 10 days, Vaughn said.

"The small guy, if it gets too cold, he’s just lost the rest of his crop," he said. The cold comes at a bit of a lull in the production year. While there are some major crops at risk — Florida farmers have been scrambling to protect their citrus — much of the concern across the Southeast now settles on niche crops.

Farmer Eddie Faust was nervous about what he’d find when he peeled the insulated blanket off his strawberries once it warmed up again in southeast Louisiana. He figured some of the green berries he’d hoped to have picked and ready for sale for Valentine’s Day would have freeze burn.

He just hoped there wouldn’t be many. "It’s going to be a wait-and-see thing," he said days into a deep freeze that had sent lows into the 20s, about 15-20 degrees below normal for parts of the region. "This is the first in many years it’s dropped like this."

Interesting3: Viruses love plane travel. They get to fly around the world inside a closed container while their infected carrier breathes and coughs, spreading pathogens to other passengers, either by direct contact or through the air. And once people deplane, the virus can spread to other geographical areas. Scientists already know that smallpox, measles, tuberculosis, seasonal influenza and severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) can be transmitted during commercial flights.

Now, in the first study to predict the number of H1N1 flu infections that could occur during a flight, UCLA researchers found that transmission during transatlantic travel could be fairly high. Reporting in the current online edition of the journal BMC Medicine, Sally Blower, director of the Center for Biomedical Modeling at the Semel Institute for Neuroscience and Human Behavior at UCLA, along with Bradley Wagner and Brian Coburn, postdoctoral fellows in Blower’s research group, used novel mathematical modeling techniques to predict in-flight transmission of the H1N1 virus.

They found that transmission could be rather significant, particularly during long flights, if the infected individual travels in economy class. Specifically, two to five infections could occur during a five-hour flight, five to 10 during an 11-hour flight, and seven to 17 during a 17-hour flight. "Clearly, it was air travel, by transporting infectious individuals from the epicenter in Mexico to other geographic locations, that significantly affected the spread of H1N1 during the outbreak last spring," Coburn said.

"However, until our study, it hadn’t been determined how important in-flight transmission could be. Therefore, we decided to make a mathematical model and predict what could be expected to occur during a flight." Using methods from the field of quantitative microbial risk assessment, the researchers determined the number of potential infections in one transatlantic flight, assuming there was just a single infected passenger on board.

Specifically, they used the long-established Wells-Riley equation, which was developed more than 30 years ago and is now standard for predicting the size of outbreaks within buildings and other enclosed environments for infectious pathogens transmitted through the air.

The equation is based on the number of exposed individuals, the respiratory rate of the infected person, the length of exposure to the infectious droplets and the concentration of infectious viral particles over time.

Amid concerns regarding terrorists targeting airliners using weapons less detectable by traditional means, the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) is ramping up deployment of whole body scanners at security checkpoints in U.S. airports. These systems produce anatomically accurate images of the body and can detect objects and substances concealed by clothing.

Interesting4: Contrary to conventional belief, as the climate warms and growing seasons lengthen subalpine forests are likely to soak up less carbon dioxide, according to a new University of Colorado at Boulder study. As a result, more of the greenhouse gas will be left to concentrate in the atmosphere. "Our findings contradict studies of other ecosystems that conclude longer growing seasons actually increase plant carbon uptake," said Jia Hu, who conducted the research as a graduate student in CU-Boulder’s ecology and evolutionary biology department in conjunction with the university’s Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, or CIRES.

The study will be published in the February edition of the journal Global Change Biology. Working with ecology and evolutionary biology professor and CIRES Fellow Russell Monson, Hu found that while smaller spring snowpack tended to advance the onset of spring and extend the growing season, it also reduced the amount of water available to forests later in the summer and fall.

The water-stressed trees were then less effective in converting CO2 into biomass. Summer rains were unable to make up the difference, Hu said. "Snow is much more effective than rain in delivering water to these forests," said Monson. "If a warmer climate brings more rain, this won’t offset the carbon uptake potential being lost due to declining snow packs." Drier trees also are more susceptible to beetle infestations and wildfires, Monson said.

January 9-10, 2010

Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures were recorded across the state of Hawaii Saturday afternoon:

Lihue, Kauai – 81
Honolulu, Oahu – 82
Kaneohe, Oahu – 82
Kaunakakai, Molokai – 79
Kahului, Maui – 81
Hilo, Hawaii – 85
Kailua-kona – 81

Air Temperatures ranged between these warmest and coolest spots near sea level around the state – and on the highest mountains…at 5pm Saturday evening:

Princeville, Kauai – 81F
Kahului, Maui – 77

Haleakala Crater – 59 (near 10,000 feet on Maui)
Mauna Kea summit – 46 (near 14,000 feet on the Big Island)

Precipitation Totals – The following numbers represent the largest precipitation totals (inches) during the last 24 hours on each of the major islands, as of Saturday afternoon:

0.01 Port Allen, Kauai
0.05 Waimanalo, Oahu
0.00 Molokai
0.00 Lanai
0.00 Kahoolawe
0.68 Kahakuloa, Maui
0.01 Kamuela, Big Island

Marine Winds – Here’s the latest (automatically updated) weather map showing a high pressure ridge near the Big Island. At the same time, we see a cold front approaching from the northwest. Our winds will be light southeasterly, then south and SW ahead of the front. Winds behind the cold front will be northwest…finally turning north to northeast. e cold front will be west, then northwest…finally turning north later Sunday into Monday.

Satellite and Radar Images: To view the cloud conditions we have here in Hawaii, please use the following satellite links, starting off with this Infrared Satellite Image of the islands to see all the clouds around the state during the day and night. This next image is one that gives close images of the islands only during the daytime hours, and is referred to as a Close-up visible image. This next image shows a larger view of the Pacific…giving perspective to the wider ranging cloud patterns in the Pacific Ocean. Finally, here’s a L o op ing I R satellite image, making viewable the clouds around the islands 24 hours a day. To help you keep track of where any showers may be around the islands, here’s the latest animated radar image.

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live webcam on the summit of near 14,000 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. The tallest peak on the island of Maui is the Haleakala Crater, which is near 10,000 feet in elevation. These two webcams are available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon rising just after sunset for an hour or two! Plus, during the nights and early mornings you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise too…depending upon weather conditions.

Tropical Cyclone activity in the eastern and central Pacific – Here’s the latest weather information coming out of the National Hurricane Center, covering the eastern north Pacific. You can find the latest tropical cyclone information for the central north Pacific (where Hawaii is located) by clicking on this link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center. Here’s a tracking map covering both the eastern and central Pacific Ocean. A satellite image, which shows the entire ocean area between Hawaii and the Mexican coast…can be found here.

Aloha Paragraphs

Saturday will be a nice day…although hazy

An active Pacific cold front is bearing down on the Hawaiian Islands, arriving first on Kauai Sunday…then pushing down into the state later Sunday into Monday. Glancing at this satellite image, we see the an area of stable looking flat clouds to the southeast of the Big Island. These clouds aren’t a threat in terms of rainfall, although as dry as the Big Island is now…it could certainly use rain. As the breezes swing around from the south and southwest now…some parts of the state will see some thick volcanic haze, along with smoke from a wild fire in Kealakekua, on the Big Island Sunday.

Kona winds are blowing, with the approach of this new cold front. There’s still a question as to how far this next cold front will push into the state, although it looks like a good chance of it reaching the Big Island for a change! Winds will swing around to the north and northeast in the wake of this cold front, before veering around to the south and southwest again ahead of the next front, forecast for around Wednesday. This new frontal cloud band will bring showers into the state, which is a good thing. The mid-week front, slated for the middle of the new week, has the chance of bringing even more generous showers to us.

We continue to see near back to back large to extra large swells pounding our north and west facing beaches. These shores have been on the receiving end of these waves, with even some south facing beaches, with a western exposure, getting into the act lately. This latest swell kept the surf up Saturday. Although, by later Sunday, we’ll see another very large, to near giant NW swell arriving into Monday and Tuesday. The major word to the citizens of Hawaii now, should be to remain careful if they get near the ocean, where the current large swells are breaking. Looking even further ahead, yet another very large swell will build late in the day Wednesday, remaining large for several days thereafter.

It’s Saturday evening, as I begin writing the last section of today’s narrative. As noted above, we have more weather changes ahead. Saturday was good day, with a relatively dry and stable atmosphere overhead…although locally very hazy! This satellite image, showing a larger area than the one above, indicates that we will see some clouds arriving on the south and southwest Kona breezes ahead of the cold front. This satellite picture also shows the approaching cold front to the northwest of the islands…pushing in our direction. ~~~ the main thing Saturday, at least here on Maui, was the thick vog that blew in on the southeast and south winds. The satellite image above shows that large area of stable clouds to the southeast and south of the Big Island. It looks rather impressive, but I don’t expect much, if any showers from it. Just to make sure though, let’s check out this looping radar image. There are only a few very minor showers falling early Saturday evening, although we’ll leave this radar image up, as by Sunday, and especially later in the day, we’ll likely need it. ~~~ I had a great Saturday, hanging out with my neighbor next door, the female part of that couple. We talked a lot, and went down together to get propane for several of our tanks around the property. I then went down to Baldwin Beach, where it was crowded, with such great weather. The surf was big offshore, breaking on the outer reefs. I got into the ocean and swam around, and out to interact a little with some breaking waves. Everyone was really enjoying themselves, and especially the dogs and little kids. I then went to the health food store, and happened to see a poster on a telephone pole, advertising a good dance in Makawao tonight. I looked this group up on the internet, and they are well known over on the mainland. So, I’ve put my feelers out to a couple of friends to join me, although I’ll go alone if need be. I love to dance, and this promises to be another night of great dance music! ~~~ I’ll be out late again, probably well past midnight again, so I might be again later in getting up Sunday morning, to prepare your next new weather narrative from paradise. I will be back though, no doubt about it. I hope you have a great Saturday night until then! Aloha for now…Glenn.