Locally strong and gusty trade winds will continue into Thursday…then gradually mellow out a little Friday into the weekend. A large high pressure center located far to the north of Hawaii, is the source areas of our blustery trade wind flow Wednesday night. Small craft wind advisory flags cover all of Hawaii’s coastal waters, in addition to all the major channels in Hawaii. Those areas protected from the direct trade winds, will have lighter winds as usual. The latest computer forecast guidance suggests that the trade winds will continue to blow right on into next week.
 
The windward sides of the islands will see occasional passing showers. The trade winds are strong enough now that a few stray showers may find their way over into a few leeward areas. It appears that we have slipped back into a fairly normal trade wind weather pattern, at least in terms of precipitation coverage and intensity. The Kona slopes may see a few afternoon showers, which is common when the trades are blowing. Trade wind showers may increase some this weekend along the windward sides.

It’s Wednesday evening as I begin updating this last paragraph of today’s narrative. Winter is just about over, with the spring equinox officially starting at 1:48 a.m. early Thursday morning. This made Wednesday the last full day of winter! Wednesday was more like a spring day than a winter day however, what with all the gusty trade winds blowing across our tropical latitudes of the north central Pacific Ocean. ~~~ A quick glance at this satellite imagery, shows that there’s a considerable amount of high level cirrus clouds coming our way from the west and northwest. They sure do make for great sunrise and sunsets colors when their around…which will be the case over the next few days. ~~~ So then, when you go to bed tonight, it will still be winter, although by the time you get up Thursday morning, bingo, it will be the first day of spring 2008! ~~~ I’ll be back with your next new weather narrative very early Thursday morning, I hope you have a restful Wednesday night until then! Aloha for now…Glenn.

"So far 2008, for the globe, has been quite cold, only just above the 1961-90 average," said Phil Jones, head of the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia which supplies global temperature data to the United Nations. "This is just January and February, so two coolish months comparable to what happened in 1994 and 1996," he told Reuters. The northern spring formally begins on March 20 this year. And an underlying warming trend, blamed by the U.N. Climate Panel on human use of fossil fuels, is likely to reassert itself after the end of a La Nina cooling of the Pacific in the coming months. There were similar conditions in 1998 and 2005, the hottest so far, Jones said.

Interesting2: Scientists know that air pollution particles from mid-latitude cities migrate to the Arctic and form an ugly haze, but a new University of Utah study finds surprising evidence that polar explorers saw the same phenomenon as early as 1870.  “The reaction from some colleagues — when we first mentioned that people had seen haze in the late 1800s — was that it was crazy,” says Tim Garrett, assistant professor of meteorology and senior author of the study. “Who would have thought the Arctic could be so polluted back then? Our instinctive reaction is to believe the world was a cleaner place 130 years ago.” The study will be published soon in the March 2008 issue of the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.  By searching through historic records written by early Arctic explorers, Garrett and his collaborator Lisa Verzella, former undergraduate student at the University of Utah, were able to find evidence of an aerosol “dry haze” that settled onto the ice to form a layer of grayish dust containing metallic particles. The haze and dust were likely the byproducts of smelting and coal combustion generated during the Industrial Revolution.

Interesting4: Birds start singing in the spring because of a biological response to longer days, researchers said on Wednesday. When birds are exposed to light for longer periods, certain brain cells trigger a series of hormonal reactions telling them to find a mating partner, which they do by singing, a team of Japanese and British researchers reported in the journal Nature. "While we knew what area of the brain was affected by seasonal change, until now we did not know the exact mechanism involved," said Peter Sharp, a researcher at the Roslin Institute near Edinburgh, who worked on the study.

The researchers, led by Takashi Yoshimura of the Nagoya University in Japan, scanned 38,000 genes present in brain samples taken from Japanese quails to see which of the birds’ genes were affected by varying degrees of light. Genes in cells on the surface of the brain switched on when the birds received more light and began releasing a thyroid-stimulating hormone. The genes activated 14 hours after dawn on the first day of sufficient length, the researchers said.

A well established trade wind weather pattern will continue, with rather strong and gusty winds dominating for the time being. Large high pressure centers far to the north and northeast of Hawaii, are the source of our blustery trade wind flow now. Small craft wind advisory flags remain up over just about all coastal areas, and all the major channels in Hawaii. As we move into the weekend, we should see the wind speeds mellowing out a little, although the trade winds will stay us right on into next week, remaining in the moderately strong category.
 
The blustery trade winds will continue to carry a few showery clouds to the windward sides of the islands. An upper level trough of low pressure is moving away to the east Hawaii Tuesday evening. This will keep our atmosphere a bit unstable for a little long, although losing its influence soon. As the trade winds are quite strong, a few showers may get carried over into the leeward sections on the smaller islands. 

It’s Tuesday evening as I begin updating this last paragraph of today’s narrative. As you can see, if you have a few seconds to look at this satellite imagery, there are lots high level cirrus clouds riding in on the jet stream level winds now. This kept island skies rather cloudy Tuesday, dimming and filtering our famous Hawaiian sunshine effectively. We may see a temporary break in the high overcast, although there appears to be more cirrus coming our way further to the west of Kauai. ~~~  The upper level trough of low pressure, which caused the recent thunderstorm activity over Maui and the Big Island, is slipping away to the east. This should put us back into a fairly normal trade wind weather pattern, at least in terms of rainfall along the windward coasts and slopes. The winds won’t be normal however, taking on strong and gusty proportions over the next couple of days. ~~~ I’ll be back again very early Wednesday morning with your next new weather narrative from paradise. I hope everyone has a great Tuesday night until then! Aloha for now…Glenn.

Interesting2: Researchers say they have shown for the first time that humpback whale calves make sounds. The nonprofit Cetos Research Organization, which studied humpbacks off Maui and Kauai, say the grunts and squeals emitted by the young whales are messages for their mothers. Ann Zoidis, director of the research project, said the sounds may be expressions of curiosity or warnings of potential danger. The sounds are not as complex as the continuous, repetitive and highly structured phrases and themes of older males, the researchers found. The calves instead produced a limited number of sounds that were short and simple in structure, according to the study. The noises included repetitive grunts that increased in strength and were sometimes accompanied by bubble streams and seemed to function as an alarm call to the mother, the researchers found. They say the sounds were produced more frequently during calmer periods when the mother was resting or during slow travel. "This tells us that calves do in fact communicate, and it tells us they are communicating to their mothers,” Zoidis said.

The trade winds will continue to blow across the Hawaiian Islands. These winds remain strong enough to keep small craft wind advisories active in most marine zones statewide. These late winter trade winds are expected to remain active through the next week. The latest weather maps show an unusually strong high pressure system establishing itself to the north and northeast Tuesday into Wednesday. This in turn will keep the trade winds strong and gusty through Friday…gradually tapering off a little by this coming weekend.  
 
There will be a combination of lower and high level clouds, with passing showers carried our way by the trade winds. An upper level trough of low pressure remains in place close to Hawaii Monday. This will help to destabilize the atmosphere, enough to enhance the incoming showers along the windward sides in places. The cold air aloft, associated with this trough aloft, may add a few locally heavy showers around Maui and the Big Island…perhaps even a thunderstorm or two! As the trade winds are quite strong, a few showers may get carried over into the leeward sections here and there. 

It’s Monday as I begin writing this last paragraph of today’s narrative. Rock steady trade winds will continue to be the name of the game in the Hawaiian Islands now. All forecasting tools point towards more of the same, which may very well increase another notch during the second half of this new work week. Meanwhile, as pointed out in the paragraph above, we’re finally back into a more normal precipitation regime now. There were actually a couple of the wetter spots around the state, that pushed up into the 1.00"+ range during the last 24 hours. Monday will see more of these off and on passing showers, along with some possible heavy showers over the leeward slopes during the afternoon hours as well. ~~~  Satellite imagery shows that there are clouds being carried our way on the trade winds, which are blowing at the lower levels of the atmosphere. There are certainly no lack of clouds surrounding the islands in pretty much all directions. Here’s a looping radar image, which show a fair amount of showers being carried along in the gusty trade winds, and stacking up over the islands too. ~~~ Monday turned out to be a cloudy day, at least by the afternoon hours. Late in the day here on Maui, there were several thunderstorms that formed, with lightning and thunder noted. It appears that some areas on the Big Island, had thunder as well. There were locally generous rains that fell in the vicinity of these cumuluonimbus clouds. ~~~ I have to leave Kihei early today, as I have a tax appointment in Kahului, gulp! I’d better get out on the road now, as quite often there are traffic problems this time of day. I hope you have a great Monday night wherever you happen to be spending it! I’ll be back very early Tuesday morning with your next new weather narrative. Aloha for now…Glenn.

Interesting2: “We can once again actually ”˜sail’ with cargo ships, thus opening a new chapter in the history of commercial shipping”. Thus is the verdict from MV Beluga Skysails captain Lutz Heldt upon completion of the vessel’s 12,000 mile round trip maiden voyage. The crew and vessel were at sea for nearly two months, giving the “skysail” concept ample opportunity for testing and tweaking. The journey took the ship from Germany to Venezuela, the United States, and then to Norway, arriving on March 13. We’ve been keeping an eye on the ship’s progress here at Triple Pundit, from initial concept, sea trials, and now the round-trip completion of her first commercial voyage using the hybrid auxiliary power kite system installed on the Beluga Skysails. Deployment of the 160—square-meter towing kite offset up to 20% of the engine’s power (and carbon emissions), saving an initial $1000 per day in fuel costs.  

A high pressure system to our northeast is weighing in at a robust 1039 millibars Sunday evening,certainly strong enough to keep breezy trade winds blowing into Monday. These winds are blustery enough to keep a small craft wind advisory active in those windiest areas around the state. These late winter trade winds are expected to remain active through the next week. The latest computer models show an unusually strong high pressure system forming around the middle of the new week, which will keep the trade winds strong and gusty through Friday…gradually tapering off a little by next weekend.  
 
There will be some showers carried into the windward sections on these gusty trade winds, especially on the Big Island end of the state. An upper level trough of low pressure has edged into the area around the Big Island. This will help to destabilize the atmosphere, enough to enhance the incoming showers along the windward sides. The cold air aloft, associated with the trough aloft, may spark a few thunderstorms over the Big Island as well. As the trade winds are quite strong, a few showers may be carried over into the leeward sections here and there. 

It’s Sunday evening as I begin writing this last paragraph of today’s narrative. There appears to be no end to the trade wind episode that now is well established here in Hawaii. These winds are currently quite strong, thanks to the hefty 1039 millibar high pressure system far to the northeast of the islands. The computer forecast models show an even stronger 1040+ millibar high pressure system taking shape by Tuesday into Wednesday. If this high pressure cell manifests as the models point out, we would see gale warnings in some of the major channels around Maui and the Big Island. There could even be wind advisories over the islands in places. This is of course not to mention the current small craft wind advisory that is already up across all of Hawaii’s marine environment! ~~~  Satellite imagery shows that there are clouds being carried our way on the trade winds, which are blowing at the lower levels of the atmosphere. Here’s a looping radar image, which will identify showers as they occur over and around the islands too. At the same time, we see high cirrus clouds, being carried over us by the high altitude winds. The combination will keep our local skies somewhat more cloudy than usual. The leeward beaches will have the best opportunity for sunshine, although in those areas where the high clouds are streaming overhead, it may be limited there as well. ~~~ Sunday was quite a cloudy day, thanks in large part to the ice crystal cirrus clouds that are getting a free ride over the islands, carried by the jet stream level winds aloft. There were off and on showers spilling from the lower level cumulus and stratocumulus clouds along the windward sides. I spent most of the day at home, luxuriating in the free time off from work. I took a quick drive down through the pasturelands between Kula and Makawao, to do some shopping. Mostly though, I just read and talked on my cell phone, enjoying the opportunity to just hang out in the peaceful reality of Kula, Maui. I must say, or forget the must, I would say that the upcountry area of east Maui is certainly one of the greatest places on Earth to spend a lazy Sunday afternoon. ~~~ I will make a corn and potato soup soon, which is the first time I’ve ever really done that. I have all the organic ingredients, and will see what I can do as I go down the stairs from this weather tower into my living area below. As I finish off this second narrative of the day, I’m listening to the great song Stairway to Heaven, played by Led Zeppelin…what better song is there really!?  I hope you have a great Sunday night wherever you are spending it, and that you will meet me here again on Monday. I will get up around 4am Monday morning to prepare your next new weather narrative from these most beautiful Hawaiian Islands of ours! Aloha for now…Glenn.

When despair for the world grows in me
and I wake in the night at the least sound
in fear of what my life and my children’s life may be,
I go and lie down where the wood drake
rests in his beauty on the water, and the great heron feeds.
I come into the peace of wild things
who do not tax their lives with forethought
of grief. I come into the presence of still water.
And I feel above me the day-blind stars
waiting with their light. For a time
I rest in the grace of the world, and am free.

Poipu Beach on Kauai
Photo Credit: flickr.com

A strong 1038 millibar high pressure system to the northeast of the islands, will keep breezy trade winds blowing this weekend. These winds are blustery enough to keep a small craft wind advisory active in those windiest areas around the state. Wind speeds will vary between 5-25 mph generally, although there will be stronger gusts topping 30 mph in those wind enhanced places. These late winter trade winds are expected to remain active into the new week ahead. The latest computer models show an unusually robust high pressure system forming around the middle of the new week ahead, which will keep the trade winds strong and gusty thereafter.  
 
There will be some showers carried into the windward sections on these gusty trade winds, although rather limted for the time being. The atmosphere over and around the islands remains somewhat dry, stopping the showers from becoming too generous. As we move into later Sunday, continuing into the new week ahead for a day or two, we may see some form of increase in showers along the windward sides, and perhaps over and around the mountains too. As the trade winds are quite strong, a few showers may be carried over into the leeward sections…along with generous afternoon showers in Kona. 

It’s Saturday evening as I begin updating last paragraph of today’s narrative.  There appears to be no end to the trade wind episode that now is well established here in Hawaii…although if they angle a little to the southeast, we would see volcanic haze locally. These winds are currently quite strong, thanks to the 1038 millibar high pressure system far to the northeast of the islands. This will keep our trade winds alive through the weekend, into the new week ahead. The models show an unusually strong 1040 millibar high pressure system taking shape by next Wednesday. If this high were to manifest, we would see small craft advisories across all of Hawaii’s marine environment, with the chance of gale warnings in some of the major channels around Maui and the Big Island. There could even be wind advisories over the islands in places. Again, all of this depends upon whether such a hefty high pressure system actually becomes reality. ~~~ There remains quite a bit of uncertainty around the possible increase in showers later this weekend into Monday. The models have been pushing for this weather solution, but again, only time will tell if we do see the windward sides getting considerably wetter…which would be pretty much restricted to Maui and the Big Island. ~~~ Saturday was a good day, a bit hazy here on Maui, actually quite hazy indeed. I’m quite sure that the Kona coast had its fair share of volcanic haze as well. As I mentioned this morning, there was a spectacular sunrise, and by the looks of the cirrus clouds up above late in the afternoon…we could see a great sunset tonight as well. ~~~ I’ll be back early Sunday morning with your next new narrative, I hope you have a great Saturday night until then! Aloha, Glenn.

When despair for the world grows in me
and I wake in the night at the least sound
in fear of what my life and my children’s life may be,
I go and lie down where the wood drake
rests in his beauty on the water, and the great heron feeds.
I come into the peace of wild things
who do not tax their lives with forethought
of grief. I come into the presence of still water.
And I feel above me the day-blind stars
waiting with their light. For a time
I rest in the grace of the world, and am free.