The first of two cold fronts has pushed in our direction from the northwest, stalling about 150 miles to the NW of Kauai Friday evening. This frontal cloud band is close enough to both Kauai and Oahu, that those northern islands will see a few showers falling. The rest of the state will fare somewhat better, although there will be showers here and there…as there’s still quite a bit of moisture in our overlying atmosphere. Winds will be mostly light from the south, although trending towards the SW towards the Kauai end of the island chain. This will make for somewhat muggy conditions, and warmer air temperatures in general.

A second stronger cold front will move towards Hawaii later this weekend, initiating significantly stronger south to SW Kona winds. This second front will progress down through the island chain later Sunday into early Monday, where it’s expected to stall around Maui County. Saturday will be the better of the two weekend days, as we prepare for the Sunday cold frontal passage, bringing increasing clouds and showers towards the end of the day into the night. If the cloud band skids to a stop over Maui as now expected early Monday morning, there could be quite an accumulation. The long range forecast shows a third cold front arriving Tuesday into Wednesday, which could drop another batch of rain… followed by cool and dry north to NE winds during the second half of next week.

It’s Friday evening here in the islands, as I begin writing this last paragraph of today’s narrative. We’re moving into a weekend that will be filled with increasingly strong winds, followed by a fairly widespread rain event later Sunday into Monday. There could be some localized flooding when the front moves through the state, and perhaps wind advisories going up before the cold front arrives. ~~~ Before I forget to mention this, everyone should be very careful when going near the ocean on the north shores this weekend. A very large NW swell will be pounding those north facing beaches, making for dangerous conditions starting Saturday. We don’t want to see any fishermen, or anybody for that matter, being swept into the ocean! Please be careful, as the waves will be very powerful, with extreme currents and undertows. ~~~ I’m going to a new film this evening, called Beowulf…"In the age of heroes comes the mightiest warrior of them all, Beowulf. After destroying the overpowering demon Grendel, he incurs the undying wrath of the beast’s ruthlessly seductive mother, who will use any means possible to ensure revenge. The ensuing epic battle resonates throughout the ages, immortalizing the name of Beowulf." The Boston Globe says, "the movie is hugely provocative fun." Here’s what the critics are saying about this film starring Anthony Hopkins, Robin Wright Penn, John Malkovich…and of course Angelina Jolie…among others. ~~~ I’ll be back early Saturday morning with more weather news about this unfolding inclement weather situation, I hope you have a great Friday night wherever you happen to be spending it! Aloha for now…Glenn. 

The wind flow across the Hawaiian Islands Thursday evening is still coming up from the southeast direction, although it’s carrying considerably less moisture in it, then during the previous 24 hours. The atmosphere remained a little unstable today, as cold air associated with a trough of low pressure far overhead, kept the air mass slightly shower prone.  The winds will remain from the southeast for the time being, providing at least some moisture from the deeper tropics to our south. The threat of widespread rain has diminished greatly however, although the threat of a localized shower still exists.

This situation will continue into Friday, although things begin to change in a different direction then. This satellite image shows a cold front to the northwest of Hawaii. The models show this frontal boundary stalling before reaching Kauai during the day Friday…into the night. During this front’s approach, our SE winds will shift around to the south and SW, becoming true Kona winds These winds will keep warm and somewhat sultry air coming into the state from the south.

The models go on to point out a second cold front moving in our direction Sunday, initiating significantly stronger Kona winds. This second front will progress down through the island chain late Sunday into Monday, where it will stall over Maui County. When a front like this slows down its forward motion, or stalls over an area of the island chain, there is always that chance of a prolonged period of heavy flooding rainfall. If that wasn’t enough, the latest model runs show a third cold front arriving late Tuesday into Wednesday.

This all fits though, as we find ourselves in a La Nina phase of the ENSO cycle…with wetter conditions than during a normal late autumn early winter period. At any rate, after this final cold front moves through by the middle of next week, we will likely see a tropical cool snap occur here in the islands for a day or two…as chilly and brisk north winds flood down into our area from northern latitudes of the Pacific. As always, forecasts out this far into the future, are subject to major revisions and second or third thoughts at least, with changes between now and then more than likely.

It’s Thursday evening here in the islands, as I begin writing this last paragraph of today’s narrative. Thursday turned out to be a really nice day here on Maui, with lots of warm sunshine beaming down. It was just another example of the old adage: "what a difference a day makes". This of course refers to the wet and rainy day that we saw just yesterday. ~~~ I made it to the beach during my lunch break, and found sunny weather, with light winds…which was delightful! I got in the ocean, and found it to be warm, definitely warm enough that it made for a very pleasant swim. There were some small waves breaking, which I really wanted to bodysurf, although I’m still healing my shoulder, from a skateboarding fall I took earlier in the year. ~~~ I just finished work down here in Kihei, and am about to jump in my car for the drive upcountry to Kula. I can see some clouds up there, although the entire south coast from Makena, Wailea to Kihei, is awash in sunlight. ~~~ I want to thank all of you who were so kind to leave a response to my recent narratives, in the box below. As you can see, I always respond back in turn. It is good to have a little give and take here, it helps me to realize that there are many folks who read these narratives on a daily basis, or at least occasionally. ~~~ I’ll be back with your next new narrative very early Friday morning, I hope you can join me then, or at least at some point during the day. Aloha for now…Glenn.

A series of cold fronts will approach the Hawaiian Islands, keeping us off and on shower prone through the rest of this week. These cold fronts will serve as a focus for showers, although they won’t keep constant rainy weather over us. The first of these frontal boundaries arrived several days ago, stalling in the area northwest of Kauai. The relatively close proximity of this elongated zone of low pressure has turned our winds to the south and southeast, which brings warm, humid, and moist air up from the deeper tropics. At the same time, we have low pressure troughing aloft over the state, which has destabilized our overlying atmosphere, prompting locally heavy showers and rain…along with a few thunderstorms. 

Flash flooding will be a concern at times Wednesday, with flood watches and warnings being issued by the NWS forecast office in Honolulu when needed. The island of Kauai has been on the receiving end of the most intense rain lately, with the mountains on that northernmost island picking up 6.41 inches of the wet stuff during the last 24 hour period. The island of Oahu has seen locally heavy showers as well. The islands of Maui County saw increasing rain Wednesday, while the Big Island experienced locally heavy showers as well. This is a time when drivers should be very careful when out and about, as there will be ponding of roadways, and generally restricted visibilities due to showery weather.

It’s Wednesday evening here in the islands, as I begin writing this last paragraph of this narrative. As noted in the paragraphs above, we are intimately involved with inclement weather conditions in Hawaii.  The latest computer models show another chance of showers occurring this weekend, when a new cold front or two arrives then. The long and short of all this is that rich tropical moisture will continue to move into the state at times, with an above normal amount of showers falling. ~~~  Here’s a looping satellite image so you can keep track of where the clouds are congregating, which happens to be those brightest and whitest clouds…while this looping radar image will help in that regard too. ~~~ Air temperatures have fallen atop Mauna Kea on the Big Island later in the day Wednesday, and as you can see from this webcam link, snow has begun falling. It will only show a dark screen until the first rays of light arrive up there at the crack of dawn Thursday. ~~~ I will be back very early Thursday morning with your next new weather narrative, I hope you have a great Wednesday night wherever you happen to be! Aloha for now…Glenn. 

The atmosphere over Hawaii has become considerably more moist, and is more shower prone as a result. The winds are coming up from the deeper tropics to our southeast, which is carrying warmer air into the Aloha state as well. The southeast winds are also carrying volcanic haze over the Kona area on the Big Island, and on up the chain to the islands of Maui County as well. A deep trough of low pressure to the NW of Hawaii, along with all the available moisture, are working together to provide locally heavy showers now, which could fall just about anywhere…although seem to be taking aim most effectively on the islands of Kauai and Oahu at the moment.

It’s Tuesday evening here in the islands, as I begin writing this last paragraph of this narrative. As noted in the paragraphs above, we are into a period of unsettled weather now.  The latest computer models show another distinct chance of showers occurring this weekend, when a cold front moves down through the state then. Those same models show a second cold front perhaps moving through the state early next week. All of this may be up for major revision, as the weather can change on a dime this time of year! ~~~ On another note, I was pointing out that Kailua-kona, on the Big Island of Hawaii, had a low temperature of 48F degrees Monday morning, which was "freezing" for those folks. Tuesday morning, with the warmer southeast winds blowing, found their temperature at the same time of morning at 78F degrees…what an incredible difference! ~~~ I want to provide this looping satellite image so you can keep track of where the heaviest showers are falling here in the state of Hawaii…while this looping radar image will help in that regard too.  Folks in the islands should be careful while out driving, especially if you find yourself under one of those heavy downpours! I hope you have a great Tuesday night wherever you happen to be spending it, I’ll be back very early Wednesday morning with your next weather narrative. Aloha for now…Glenn.

The new week has started off in fine shape, with unsettled weather conditions gradually taking over as we move forward. The air flow coming into the state will gradually turn to the SE Monday into Tuesday. This will warm our air temperatures up some during the days, along with bringing in a bit more humidity. The southeast winds will likely carry at least some volcanic haze over the Kona area on the Big Island…and on up the chain over the islands of Maui County with time too. The overlying atmosphere will remain quite dry and stable for the moment, although that will be changing soon.

It’s Monday evening here in the islands, as I begin writing this last paragraph of this narrative. As noted in the paragraphs above, we will be moving into a period of unsettled weather soon. Monday was a fine day, although with lighter winds in general. As you can see from checking out this satellite image, there is a large area of tropical moisture to the east and SE of Hawaii. Some of this moisture will ride up into the SE side of the Big Island during the day Monday, although not a lot yet. In addition, you can see a strong cold front approaching from the NW, although it won’t be reaching our islands…I don’t think! As we move into later Tuesday and Wednesday, an approaching trough of low pressure to our northwest will draw those tropical clouds up over the rest of the islands. Wednesday will be the day that we’ll likely see a more prounounced increase in showers, some of which may be heavy. There will be off and on rainfall around Thursday into the weekend. The models go on to show a possible strong cold front arriving later this coming weekend, which would keep the showery weather around into early next week. ~~~ I got down to the beach at lunch today in Kihei, Maui, and enjoyed a sunny walk and warm water swim. I haven’t been going to the beach lately, mostly because of an rotary cuff tear in my shoulder. It seems to be ever so radually getting better though, which is a relief! ~~~ I’ll be back early Tuesday morning with more weather updates on this unsettled weather pattern that we have coming up soon. I hope you have a great Monday night wherever you happen to be spending it! Aloha for now…Glenn.

Other than a few windward biased showers, our weather here in the Hawaiian Islands will be beautiful Monday. The air flow coming into the state will gradually be turning to the ESE and SE into Monday. This will warm our air temperatures up some during the days, along with bringing in a bit more humidity. The southeast winds will likely carry at least some volcanic haze over the Kona area on the Big Island…and on up the chain over the islands of Maui County. The overlying atmosphere will remain quite dry and stable for the moment, although that will be changing quite soon.

It’s Sunday evening here in the islands, as I begin writing this last paragraph of this narrative. As noted in the paragraphs above, we will be moving into a period of unsettled weather soon. Monday will be more muggy, with lighter winds, and becoming hazy in the southern part of the state. Monday afternoon there will be afternoon cloud buildups, especially over the upcountry areas…although showers will still be quite limited. As you can see from checking out this satellite image, there is a large area of tropical moisture to the east and SE of Hawaii. As we move into Tuesday, an approaching trough of low pressure to our northwest will begin to draw that stuff up into the islands. Wednesday will be the day that we’ll likely see a more prounounced increase in showers, which may keep off and on moisture around Thursday into the weekend…some of which may be locally heavy. The models go on to show a possible robust cold front arriving later next weekend, which could keep the showery weather around into early the following week. As is always the case, the information in this paragraph will be changing as we move forward, with a very good chance of major erasing and alterations in the forecast details! ~~~ Sunday was a really nice day here in Hawaii, with abundant sunshine down near the coasts, while the slopes and mountains got cloudy during the afternoon hours. I anticipate that it will be getting quite cool in the upcountry areas again tonight. The Kona slopes of the Big Island, right down to the coast, have been unusually chilly the past several mornings as well. ~~~ I’ll be back here at the weather drawing board again very early Monday morning, I hope you have a great Sunday night until then! Aloha for now…Glenn.

Other than a few windward biased showers, our weather here in the Hawaiian Islands will be beautiful Sunday into Monday. The air flow coming into the state will gradually be turning to the ENE, and finally the more customary easterly trade wind direction, as we move through the next couple of days. This will warm our air temperatures up some, and probably bring a few more showers to the windward sides.  The south and west facing leeward beaches will be sunny during the days.

It’s Saturday evening here in the islands, as I begin writing this last paragraph of this narrative. Have you been noticing the very large moon the last few nights? This month’s full moon occurred early Saturday morning here in Hawaii. Despite the fact that it has peaked in fullness and brightness, it will nonetheless be super bright Saturday night! ~~~ I took in a new film last evening after work, this one called No Country for Old Men. This is a screen adaption from a book written by Cormac McCarthy. The film is set in West Texas, about a man on the run with a suitcase full of money, who is pursued by a number of individuals. Tommy Lee Jones is the leading acter, among many other fine performances. This film has received very impressive grades from the critics…here’s a link to what they’re saying. This is no light weight film, with lots of violence, so I won’t be adding a link to the trailer, although for those that can take it, there is a link on the page I referred you to above. The film was outstanding, although filled with lots of killing, no doubt about it! I would have to add my own A grade to the long list of others who rated this extremely well done western. The truth is that I felt a little stunned as I was driving up the Haleakala Highway after the film, although not in a bad way…just in awe at the well done presentation. ~~~ If you had a chance to read down through the paragraph above this one, you know that the new week ahead looks quite interesting, filled with quite a impressive weather change, including moisture coming up from the deep tropics to our southeast. Then perhaps a cold front arriving later in the week from the northwest direction. I will be adding updates to this potentially wet weather scenario often over the next few days. ~~~ Saturday was a great day here in the islands, with lots of warm sunshine, which will extend naturally, organically if you will, right into Sunday. I’ll be back early Sunday morning with your next new narrative updates.. I hope you have a great Saturday night, wherever you happen to be spending it! Aloha for now…Glenn.

Other than a few windward biased showers, our weather here in the Hawaiian Islands will be beautiful through the weekend. The air flow coming into the state is still from the northeast direction Friday evening, blowing light to moderately strong in most areas. The northerly aspect to these winds will keep our air temperatures slightly on the cool side for a little while longer. The winds will gradually be turning to the ENE, and finally the more customary easterly trade wind direction, as we move through the next couple of days. This will warm our air temperatures up, and probably bring a few more showers to the windward sides.  The south and west facing leeward beaches will be sunny during the days, while the north and east facing windward areas will see just a few showers falling.

It’s Friday evening here in the islands, as I begin writing this last paragraph of this narrative. Have you been noticing the very large moon the last few nights? This month’s full moon occurs early Saturday morning here in Hawaii, at around 4am Saturday morning…in some parts of the world this big moon is called the Beaver Moon. ~~~ I’m about to head over to Kahului to take in my next new film, this one called No Country for Old Men. This is a screen adaption from a book written by Cormac McCarthy. This film is set in West Texas, about a man on the run with a suitcase full of money, who is pursued by a number of individuals. Tommy Lee Jones is the leading star, among others. This film has received very impressive grades from the critics…here’s a link to what they’re saying. This is no light weight film, so I won’t be adding a link to the trailer, although for those that are interested, there is a link on the page I referred you to above. I’ll let you know what I thought Saturday morning when I get back online with your next new weather narrative from paradise. Aloha for now…Glenn.

Drier air is filtering into the state now, with our overlying atmosphere stabilizing nicely as well…leading to improved weather conditions in general. The Big Island end of the state is still slightly unstable, although even there we should be seeing fewer showers soon. The air flow coming into the state is still from the northeast direction, blowing light to moderately strong in most areas. The northerly aspect to these winds will keep our air temperatures slightly on the cool side for the time being. The south and west facing leeward beaches will be quite sunny during the days, while the north and east facing windward areas will see a few showers falling. 

It’s Thanksgiving Day here in the islands, as I begin writing this last paragraph of this narrative.  We’ve turned the corner into a drier atmosphere, with the influence of the long lasting upper low to our east and NE now fading. This will translate into good weather conditions, continuing through the rest of the upcoming long holiday weekend. ~~~ I went to the Maui Arts and Cultural Center in Wailuku after work last evening, had a nice Mahimahi dinner in the outside cafe, along with a glass of red wine. Then I saw the new film called I’m Not There, starring Christian Bale, Cate Blanchett, Richard Gere, Heath Ledger and Ben Whishaw. The Boston Globe says of this film: "a work of staggering cinematic craft that’s part jigsaw puzzle and part meditation on the mysteries of art and stardom." Chicago Tribune, "the superb music and acting is enough to make this experiment a success." The film is a re-enactment of the life of musician, Bob Dylan, with multiple actors embodying different stages in the singer’s life. Here’s a trailer. I liked this film, although I must admit it was a bit slow for my liking, perhaps a tad too artsy too. It’s probably just that I’m so used to seeing films with a harder edge lately. By the way, the theater was packed to the gills…who doesn’t love Bob Dylan music! ~~~ At any rate, it’s chilly up here at the 3,100 foot elevation in Kula, Maui. The air temperature at 7am was 50F degrees, the coolest morning I’ve seen since last spring. My fingers are frosty, but otherwise I like it. I have two Thanksgiving dinners to attend today, not sure how I’ll pull that off, although fortunately they are both here in Kula. I’ll be back early Friday morning with your next new weather narrative. Here’s wishing a very Happy Thanksgiving to all you readers! Aloha for now…Glenn.

The windward sides will find showers falling at times through the end of the week into next week…with the leeward sides drier and quite pleasant. We still have an upper level low pressure system, with it’s surface trough, east and NE of the Aloha state…although it is moving away towards the north now. The air flow around this low will bring in light to moderately strong north to NE breezes, getting stronger Thursday. The northerly aspect to these winds will keep our air temperatures on the cool side for the time being…in a tropical sense of course. The south and west facing leeward beaches will be quite sunny during the days, while the north and east facing windward areas will be cloudier…where the best chance for showers will remain. 

It’s Wednesday evening here in the islands, as I begin writing this last paragraph of today’s narrative.  We turning the corner into what looks like a drier atmosphere, which at the same time is trying to stabilize itself. This will translate into good weather conditions starting on Thanksgiving Day, at least on the leeward sides, continuing through the rest of the long holiday weekend. This sounds like a good time to head down to one of our lovely island beaches! ~~~ I’m heading over to the Maui Arts and Cultural Center in Wailuku this evening, have dinner in the outside cafe, along with a glass of red wine. Then I’ll see the new film called I’m Not There, starring Christian Bale, Cate Blanchett, Richard Gere, Heath Ledger and Ben Whishaw. The Boston Globe says of this film: "a work of staggering cinematic craft that’s part jigsaw puzzle and part meditation on the mysteries of art and stardom." Chicago Tribune, "the superb music and acting is enough to make this experiment a success." The film is a re-enactment of the life of musician, Bob Dylan, with multiple actors embodying different stages in the singer’s life. Here’s a trailer. ~~~ I’ll be back Thursday morning with my impression of this fun looking film, and more weather information for you then too. I hope you have a great Wednesday night leading into a wonderful Thanksgiving. Happy Thanksgiving everyone! Aloha for now…Glenn.