Air Temperatures – The following high temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Thursday…along with the low temperatures Thursday:

89 – 77  Lihue, Kauai
91 – 75  Honolulu, Oahu – high temperature record was 93…back 1987
 86 – 76  Molokai
89 – 72  Kahului AP, Maui
87 – 75  Kailua Kona
85 – 70  Hilo AP, Hawaii

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands as of Thursday evening:

0.12  Wailua, Kauai
0.23  Poamoho RG 1, Oahu
 0.16  Molokai
0.00  Lanai
 0.02  Kahoolawe
0.18  West Wailuaiki, Maui
0.79  Waiaha, Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph) as of Thursday evening:

20  Port Allen, Kauai
30  Kuaokala, Oahu
25  Molokai
30  Lanai
27  Kahoolawe
29  Maalaea Bay, Maui 
30  Kealakomo, Big Island

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live webcam on the summit of our tallest mountain Mauna Kea (nearly 13,800 feet high) on the Big Island of Hawaii. This webcam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands, and at night whenever there’s a big moon shining down. Also, at night you will be able to see the stars — and the sunrise and sunset too — depending upon weather conditions.


Aloha Paragraphs

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High pressure north of the islands…low pressure well south

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Thunderstorms southwest…with high cirrus

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Low clouds arriving from the east on the trades…higher clouds west


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Showers locally…generally offshore and windward
Looping radar image



Small Craft Advisory…windiest coasts and channels around Maui County and the Big Island

Coastal Flooding Possible:

Coastal flooding, associated with a combination of high tides and higher than normal water levels, will be a possibility through the weekend. The greatest potential for coastal flooding impacts will be during the peak daily high tide, which will occur during the mid- to late-afternoon hours the next several days.

Observed water levels at the Honolulu tidal station continue to be much higher than predicted, and are currently running about 0.8 feet higher than predicted values.

Impacts may include flooding of beach areas that are normally dry, salt water inundation of typically vulnerable low-lying roads, docks, boat ramps and other coastal infrastructure. The potential for coastal flooding will diminish early next week as the peak daily tides diminish.

 

~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~

 

Broad Brush Overview: Moderate to locally strong trade winds will continue through Friday, then ease to light and moderate levels by the weekend. The trade winds will deliver periods of clouds and showers to windward areas, with showers most active during nights and mornings. While leeward areas of the smaller islands will remain mostly dry, the leeward side of the Big Island will see clouds and a few showers during the afternoon and evening hours each day. An increase in trade wind showers is possible late in the weekend through early next week.

Looking further ahead: High pressure will prevail to the north and northeast of the state, keeping the trade winds blowing across the island chain. An upper level low to the north of the islands will prompt a weak surface trough over and to the north of the state, weakening the trade winds into the light to moderate range by the weekend. Early next week the upper level low and weak surface trough are expected to push west of the islands. At the same time, the models show an area of low pressure passing by to the south of the state…strengthening the trades slightly early next week.

An increasingly moist and unstable airmass is expected to move overhead as the weekend progresses, remaining in place over the islands through early next week. The combination of  abundant deep moisture, and the unstable atmospherics should result in a fairly wet trade wind pattern late in the weekend through early next week…with some locally heavy rainfall possible. In addition, humid conditions will accompany this surge in deeper tropical moisture, making it feel more uncomfortable than usual.

Potential Tropical Cyclones: An area of disturbed weather well southeast of the Big Island, continues to be monitored for potential development of a tropical depression. Although associated thunderstorms flared overnight, they have since dissipated…and there is a medium chance that a weak tropical cyclone will develop over the next several days.

Here’s a wind profile of the Pacific Ocean – Closer view of the islands / Here’s the vog forecast animation / Here’s the latest weather map

Marine environment details: Surface high pressure far northeast of the islands will maintain moderate to locally strong trades winds. This will continue to result in Small Craft Advisory (SCA) conditions for the typically windy waters adjacent to the islands of Maui County and the Big Island. The high is expected to continue drifting eastward during the next few days, and a slight downward trend in trade wind speeds is expected from Friday night through this weekend.

A small south-southeast swell is expected to peak late Friday, before gradually subsiding this weekend. A small, reinforcing southwest swell is forecast to reach the islands Saturday, and continue into early next week.

Surf is expected to trend down along east facing shores this weekend as the trades weaken slightly. Surf will likely remain below the High Surf Advisory criteria along all shorelines through the middle of next week.

Finally, another period of above normal high tides is expected through this weekend. The water levels associated with these tides are forecast to be slightly lower than those observed in July. In addition, no large swells are expected during the next several days. There could still be some localized coastal flooding from these tides.

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Another nice summer day



World-wide tropical cyclone activity


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>>> Atlantic Ocean: No active tropical cyclones

1.) Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low pressure located about 750 miles east-northeast of the Leeward Islands continues to show signs of organization. While it would take only a slight increase in organization for a tropical depression to form later today or tonight, upper-level winds are becoming less favorable for development. The low is expected to move west-northwestward at about 20 mph during the next few days, and interests in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of this disturbance.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent

2.)  Shower activity has increased during the last 24 hours in association with a tropical wave located over the far eastern Atlantic Ocean, several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are forecast to become more favorable for some development early next week while the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward at about 20 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent

>>> Caribbean Sea: 

Tropical Cyclone 09L (Harvey) remains active, here’s a NHC graphical track map, a satellite image…and what the computer models are showing

>>> Gulf of Mexico: No active tropical cyclones

Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Eastern Pacific: No active tropical cyclones

1.) Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure area located about 700 miles south-southwest of the Baja California peninsula have become more organized overnight. Environmental conditions are conducive for this system to become a tropical cyclone at any time over the next day or so while it moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph.

This disturbance is being referred to as Invest 93E, here’s a satellite image…and what the computer models are showing

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high…90 percent

Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Central Pacific: No active tropical cyclones

1.) Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure located around 600 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii remain disorganized. Environmental conditions are expected to become less conducive for development over the next few days due to a combination of dry middle- to upper-level air and increasing upper-level winds as it drifts toward the northwest.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low…30 percent

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

>>> Northwest Pacific Ocean:

>>> South Pacific Ocean: No active tropical cyclones

>>> North and South Indian Oceans / Arabian Sea: No active tropical cyclones


Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)


Interesting: Investigating the Enigma of Clouds and Climate Change — Clouds perform an important function in cooling the planet as they reflect solar energy back into space. Yet clouds also intensify warming by trapping the planet’s heat and radiating it back to earth. As fossil fuel emissions continue to warm the planet, how will this dual role played by clouds change, and will clouds ultimately exacerbate or moderate global warming?

Kate Marvel, a physicist at Columbia University and a researcher at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies, is investigating the mysteries of clouds and climate change. And while she and her colleagues would like to offer definitive answers on this subject, the fact is that few now exist.

In an interview with Yale Environment 360, Marvel discusses what is known about the behavior of clouds in a warming world (they are migrating more toward the poles), explains why strict controls need to be imposed on geoengineering experiments with clouds, and talks about why she is confident that science and human ingenuity will ultimately overcome the challenge of climate change.

“The fact that we understand how the planet actually works and we keep continuing to ask these questions — that makes me optimistic about the future of our species,” says Marvel.

Yale Environment 360: Why are clouds such a challenge when it comes to accounting for them in climate change models?

Kate Marvel: It turns out that clouds are really important to the climate. They kind of explain why different climate models predict different possible futures. Some climate models are saying it’s going to get really hot, and some climate models are saying it’s going to get hot, but not as hot. And it turns out that differences in cloud changes, predicted by the models, are kind of the main reason for that.

And clouds are hard to model because they’re simultaneously large and small. When you think about how clouds form, they’re the result of microscopic water droplets, or ice crystals, coalescing like grains of sand. But at the same time, they cover 75 percent of the Earth’s surface. So it’s really hard for a climate model, which is fundamentally large scale, to get those really small-scale processes right. So we know that climate models don’t handle clouds very well. We’ve known that for a while. But clouds are also very important in regulating the climate. They block a lot of sunlight, but they also trap a lot of heat coming up from the Earth’s surface.

e360: So it’s opposing effects. What dictates which effect a cloud will have?

Marvel: It depends on several aspects; what the cloud’s made of is very important. So clouds that are made of ice particles are less reflective, they reflect less sunlight than juicier clouds made of liquid water droplets. Something else that’s really important is cloud height.  If you look up on a clear, summer day, and you see kind of wispy, cirrus clouds, those obviously are not very good at blocking sunlight; they let that sunlight stream through. But they’re very good at trapping the heat from the planet’s surface. So, high clouds in general have a warming effect, but, low, thick clouds — the kind that you see on a cloudy, gloomy day — those are really good at blocking sunlight, so those have a cooling effect.

e360: Researchers have gained a deeper understanding of cloud behavior in a warming world. Talk a bit about what we’ve learned.

Marvel: We had a paper in the Journal of Climate that showed clouds are moving in the way that we would expect them to. So if you think about those low clouds that block sunlight, they are going to be much more effective in the tropics, where there’s kind of more sunlight, than there is further toward the poles, where the sun’s less intense. And climate change is predicted to alter atmospheric circulation patterns. It’s predicted to push everything poleward. What we’ve seen is that clouds are following that particular trajectory. If you look at the sort of large-scale patterns of clouds, they are moving toward the poles.

e360: A Nature paper published after yours found an upward motion to clouds. Did you also find that?

Marvel: We found hints of it; in the Nature paper it’s much clearer because they made corrections that accounted for the fact that the satellite records are really patchy and they were able to really observe clearly that high cloud shift. And there have been other studies that have observed that when it’s warmer, high clouds shift upwards. That’s an effect that we think we understand fairly well.

e360: What are the consequences of this poleward and upward motion of clouds?

Marvel: Both of them give rise to what I think is the most confusing part of climate jargon. We call it a positive feedback, and you think “positive feedback” — that sounds great. I like getting positive feedback. But when climate scientists talk about a positive feedback, we mean some process that changes in response to warming, that accelerates that warming. So both of those changes are what we would call a positive feedback, meaning it enhances the warming.

e360: And is this trend, poleward and upward, something that the models say will continue under a business-as-usual scenario?

Marvel: Yes, we think so.

e360: There was some discussion when these studies came out regarding whether this was a consequence of global warming or that these movements were a consequence of recovery from major volcanic activity. Where do things stand with that at this point?

Marvel: That’s a really good point. You have to be careful about attributing things to natural external forces versus human-caused external influences. We’re currently working on a project that’s trying to sort of tease out those influences. But I don’t think there’s been a study published that really definitively attributes the observed changes to one particular external sourcing.

e360: Of course, climate deniers can grab hold of something like that and say, “See, they don’t really know.”

Marvel: I think that’s one of the greatest things about science is that in science, we can say we don’t know, or we don’t know yet. I’m really suspicious of people who come along and say, “I have all the answers.” I think there’s this real tendency to say that, “Oh, well if you don’t know everything, you don’t know anything.” And I think that’s totally wrong. You know, the continued existence of science does not invalidate science. The fact that we’re still asking questions doesn’t mean that the method we’re using to answer those questions is wrong.

e360: Most of our cloud observations come from weather satellites. However, there was a NASA satellite in the planning stage that was designed to look at cloud behavior. President Trump’s proposed budget zeroes out that mission. Should NASA projects that deal with climate change be a priority in the upcoming budget?

Marvel: I certainly think so. I don’t really understand why on earth we wouldn’t want to look at our own home. We have this amazing satellite technology. We can observe all of us from space. We can measure things that we never dreamed we could measure and that’s kind of a miracle, I think. I also think it’s extremely cost-effective. Why would we not want to do it? I started my career as an astrophysicist, and then I realized that nowhere else in the universe is as good as here, right? This is the best planet. And I think it’s part of NASA’s mission to look at other worlds, but we also want to look down at our world as well.

e360:  In a recent commentary, a group of researchers, including two from the University of Washington, made the case for conducting small scale experiments using a geo-engineering technique known as cloud brightening. They want to spray saltwater into marine clouds making them more reflective of sunlight as a possible way of reducing global warming. What’s your take on such experiments?

Marvel: With geoengineering, I’m always very concerned because if I want to do an experiment on human subjects, as a university researcher, I have to go in front of a review board and convince them that all of my human subjects have given informed consent to participate in this experiment. And with a lot of geo-engineering experiments, I worry about how that consent is going to be obtained.  There are starting to be organizations thinking about this; there’s something called the Climate Geoengineering Governance Project, that’s starting to think about how would we design an international law regime to actually regulate this. And I think that’s something worth thinking about.

e360: You’ve written that when it comes to climate change, “I refuse to give in to despair. I just don’t have time for that. I’m too busy doing science.” Tell me more about the roll-up-your-sleeves attitude you’ve got.

Marvel: People ask me, “Aren’t you just depressed all the time? How do you keep going in the face of this?” We’re all going to die. You know, there’s not a lot of good news there. But we all manage to find happiness and fun in our lives anyway. And I do have hope, I do think that we are an amazing species; and we do a lot of terrible things, but we also do a lot of very good things. I do have hope in human ingenuity. I don’t think we peaked with the internal combustion engine. So that gives me hope.

Going back to your question about NASA satellites, the fact that we as a species can look at our planet from above, that’s amazing. The fact that we understand how the planet actually works, and we keep continuing to ask these questions — that gives me hope. That makes me optimistic about the future of our species.