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Air Temperatures – The following high temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Friday…along with the low temperatures Friday:

85 – 75  Lihue, Kauai
88 – 76  Honolulu, Oahu
87 – 75  Molokai
88 – 74  Kahului AP, Maui
87 – 76  Kailua Kona
84 – 67  Hilo AP, Hawaii

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands as of Friday evening:

0.20  Mount Waialeale, Kauai
0.42  Oahu Forest NWR, Oahu
 0.13  Molokai
0.00  Lanai
 0.16  Kahoolawe
1.22  Puu Kukui, Maui
0.28  Honaunau, Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph) as of Friday evening:

20  Puu Lua, Kauai
33  Kuaokala, Oahu
28  Molokai
28  Lanai
35  Kahoolawe
35  Kahului AP, Maui
39  Puu Mali, Big Island

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live webcam on the summit of our tallest mountain Mauna Kea (nearly 13,800 feet high) on the Big Island of Hawaii. This webcam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands, and at night whenever there’s a big moon shining down. Also, at night you will be able to see the stars — and the sunrise and sunset too — depending upon weather conditions.


Aloha Paragraphs

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Tropical Storm Eugene getting stronger in the eastern Pacific

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Thunderstorms far southwest through southeast

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Mostly clear to partly cloudy


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Just a few showers locally – Looping radar image


 

~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~

 

Broad Brush Overview: Gusty trade winds will continue through this weekend into next week, as high pressure remains far northwest and northeast of the state. We’ll find the usual passing showers, falling mostly along the windward coasts and slopes through Monday. An increase in showers will begin Tuesday….as a trough of low pressure arrives with a moist tropical origin. This more shower prone environment will keep wetter than normal weather around for several days.

Details: The models show the current trade wind weather pattern continuing through Monday. Areas of moisture moving in on the trades, will carry clouds and windward showers our way at times…generally during the night and early morning hours. While leeward areas should remain mostly dry, there could be a few showers sneaking over the mountains locally on the smaller islands. Rainfall amounts should continue to be in the light to moderate range for the most part.

Looking Further Ahead: The forecast models go on to show an area of enhanced tropical moisture moving in from the east Tuesday. The atmosphere will become more unstable into Wednesday. As this moisture arrives, increasing clouds and showers will occur across areas of the island chain, and could extend into Thursday. In addition, an increase in humidity should arrive as well…bringing muggy weather our way. No tropical cyclones are expected here in the central Pacific.

Here’s a wind profile of the Pacific Ocean – Closer view of the islands / Here’s the vog forecast animation / Here’s the latest weather map

Marine environment details: A high pressure system northwest of the area, will remain nearly stationary…maintaining locally strong trade winds over the coastal waters. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is in effect through Friday for waters around the Big Island and Maui County. Winds will weaken slightly tomorrow, as the high moves off to the northeast.

No significant swells are expected, and surf will remain well below advisory levels on all shores. A south-southeast swell arriving today will bring a moderate increase in surf along south facing shores through the weekend.

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Typical summer weather…then a change Monday


>>> Southern California Weather Brief: Strong high pressure will peak through Saturday, with dangerous and record-breaking heat. Gusty winds will affect Santa Barbara County with fire weather concerns. The high will weaken some next week…with lower but still above normal temperatures. Monsoonal flow may bring showers and thunderstorms to the mountains and deserts into next week.

 

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Mostly clear…with cloud patches here and there


World-wide tropical cyclone activity


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>>> Atlantic Ocean: No active tropical cyclone

>>> Caribbean: No active tropical cyclone

No tropical cyclones are expected during the next 5-days

>>> Gulf of Mexico: No active tropical cyclones

No tropical cyclones are expected during the next 5-days

Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Eastern Pacific: 

Tropical Storm Eugene remains active, here’s a graphical track map, a satellite image…and what the computer models are showing

Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Central Pacific: No active tropical cyclones

No tropical cyclones are expected during the next 5-days

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

>>> Northwest Pacific Ocean: No active tropical cyclone

>>> South Pacific Ocean: No active tropical cyclones

>>> North and South Indian Oceans / Arabian Sea: No active tropical cyclones


Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)


Interesting: Advanced Modeling Technique Suggests Extreme Coastal Sea Levels More Likely – Improving projections for how much ocean levels may change in the future and what that means for coastal communities has vexed researchers studying sea level rise for years, but a new international study that incorporates extreme events may have just given researchers and coastal planners what they need.

The study, published today in Nature Communications  uses newly available data and advanced models to improve global predictions when it comes to extreme sea levels. The results suggest that extreme sea levels will likely occur more frequently than previously predicted, particularly in the west coast regions of the U.S. and in large parts of Europe and Australia.

“Storm surges globally lead to considerable loss of life and billions of dollars of damages each year, and yet we still have a limited understanding of the likelihood and associated uncertainties of these extreme events both today and in the future,” said Thomas Wahl, an assistant engineering professor in the University of Central Florida who led the study. He is also a member of UCF’s Sustainable Coastal Systems Cluster.

The study was conducted to make data about extreme events a part of the ongoing research and planning required to help communities prepare now for conditions that may be dramatically different in the not-too-distant future.

Extreme sea levels are typically caused by a combination of high tides, storm surges, and in many cases waves, Wahl said.

When an extreme event collides with continually rising seas, it takes a less intense storm, such as a Category I hurricane, to inflict as much coastal damage as a Category II or III storm would have had when the seas were lower.

Because of the rising sea levels, which research has confirmed has occurred steadily during the past century and is expected to accelerate in the future, extreme events that are now expected to happen, on average, only once every hundred years, could occur every decade or even every year, in many places by 2050, the study said.

Using a representative sample of 20 different methods for predicting extreme sea levels the researchers focused intensely on the measures of uncertainty that accompany any prediction, but that are particularly vexing in the analysis of extremes.

Interspersing sea level rise with the latest predictions of extreme sea level events, the research team was able to illustrate the dramatic effect one has on the other and pinpoint regions of the world that are especially threatened.

“In order to understand coastal impacts under current and future climate and socio-economic conditions, we do not only need robust projections of mean sea level rise but also a profound knowledge of present-day and future extreme sea levels, because these events drive the impacts,” Wahl said.

The researcher team agreed that including extreme sea levels into coastal impact studies is imperative in helping vulnerable parts of the world effectively protect themselves by adapting through new or upgraded infrastructure such as dikes, pumping systems, barriers, or other tools like new building codes or flood zoning that prevents new infrastructure from being built in high-risk areas.

“Based on our results we can see, for the first time globally, what role uncertainties in extreme sea level predictions play,” said study co-author and associate professor Ivan Haigh of the University of Southampton, UK. “It helps identify hot spots where we can focus on in more detail, performing localized studies to reduce the uncertainties and improve our confidence in the results.”