Air Temperatures – The following high temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Sunday…along with the low temperatures Sunday:

88 – 79  Lihue, Kauai
88 – 75  Honolulu, Oahu
91 – 79  Molokai
88 76  Kahului AP, Maui
86 – 74  Kailua Kona
84 – 71  Hilo AP, Hawaii

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands as of Sunday evening:

2.39  Mount Waialeale, Kauai
0.81  Tunnel RG, Oahu
0.22  Molokai
0.08  Lanai
0.01  Kahoolawe

1.76  Puu Kukui, Maui
2.01  Kawainui Stream, Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph) as of Sunday evening:

25  Port Allen, Kauai
25  Makua Range, Oahu

30  Molokai
29  Lanai

21  Kahoolawe
29  Maalaea Bay, Maui

28  Kealakomo, Big Island

Hawaii’s MountainsHere’s a link to the live webcam on the summit of our tallest mountain Mauna Kea (nearly 13,800 feet high) on the Big Island of Hawaii. This webcam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands, and at night whenever there’s a big moon shining down. Also, at night you will be able to see the stars — and the sunrise and sunset too — depending upon weather conditions.


Aloha Paragraphs

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Former Fernanda will be moving through the state, and Tropical Storms Greg, Hilary and Irwin are far to the east of Hawaii

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A few thunderstorms firing off occasionally to the north of former Fernanda

 

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Dissipating cloud swirl northeast…associated with former Fernanda

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Variable clouds…with some heavy showers in the general vicinity


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Showers locally…some will likely become generous here and there
Looping radar image


Special Weather Statement…Coastal Flooding Possible:

Coastal flooding associated with king tides will continue to be a possibility the next couple of days. The greatest potential for coastal flooding impacts will be during the mid to late afternoon hours through Monday, when the highest tides are expected.

Surf is elevated along east-facing shores, and this will likely cause greater wave run-up along some exposed windward coastlines, especially during high tide. Impacts of the king tides may include flooding of beaches that are normally dry, salt water inundation of typically vulnerable low-lying roads, docks, boat ramps and other coastal infrastructure. The threat of coastal flooding will ease by Tuesday, as the peak daily tides diminish.

Marine Weather Statement…Strong thunderstorms are possible over windward Maui and Oahu coastal waters into this morning

 

~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~

 

Broad Brush Overview: An upper level trough of low pressure to the west of the islands, in combination with the remnants of former tropical cyclone Fernanda just to the east, will bring off and on showers to the islands, some of which may be heavy again tomorrow afternoon. The remnant surface trough that was once Fernanda, will move slowly westward across the islands through Monday night. Stronger trades, less humid conditions, and a more settled weather pattern will return by Tuesday…as a surface high pressure system far northeast of the state becomes well established.

Details: The models suggest this trough aloft will continue to enhance showers and some thunderstorms over the waters west and southwest of Kauai and Oahu. This trough will slowly weaken into Monday, so its influence is expected to gradually diminish. However, with increasing tropical moisture moving in from the east, and the trade winds remaining active, mainly windward showers will continue locally. There will also be the possibility of locally heavy downpours over the interior Big Island, the coastal and upcountry sections of the leeward Big Island…and over leeward Haleakala again Monday afternoon.

The remnant surface trough and enhanced tropical moisture associated with now retired Fernanda, will be tracking from east to west across the islands. As this feature moves slowly westward, the trade winds will falter. This will cause very warm and sultry conditions into Monday. The very moist tropical air mass, and daytime heating in this unstable environment, will keep the chance of more locally heavy downpours into Monday. Some of these heavy showers may persist into early Monday evening, although will likely diminish later Monday night onward.

Looking Further Ahead: Drier air arriving in the wake of former Fernanda, will be accompanied by locally stronger trades, lasting through Friday at least. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Greg is forecast by National Hurricane Center (NHC) to continue on a generally westward to west-northwestward track through the next several days. Greg is expected to become a remnant low by Wednesday…just as it pushes into our central Pacific. It’s too early to know if Greg will be able to bring showers to Hawaii next weekend. Speaking of Greg, and all the other storms out there, check this out…and don’t forget to look at the far ends, with one system offshore from southern Mexico,and then pan far left to that storm in the South China Sea…there are more than the normal number of tropical cyclones!

Here’s a wind profile of the Pacific Ocean – Closer view of the islands / Here’s the vog forecast animation / Here’s the latest weather map

Marine environment details: High pressure centered far northeast of the islands will support trade winds. However, the remnants of Post-Tropical Cyclone Fernanda will pass between the islands and the high tonight and Monday, which will likely cause trades to ease. As the trough that marks the remnant of Fernanda moves west of Kauai Monday night and Tuesday, a moderate to occasionally stronger trade flow will resume…and a Small Craft Advisory will likely be necessary for the windier coasts and channels.

A High Surf Advisory remains in effect through early Monday morning for east facing shores of most islands, due to the combined effects of strong trade winds upstream of the islands, and the limited surf having been associated with Fernanda. Surf observations support the continuation of the advisory, with some windward locations reporting large breaking waves.

The largest high tides of the month will occur each afternoon during the next couple of days. Note that these high tides, combined with the elevated surf along east facing shores, may result in coastal flooding in some areas through Monday.

Over the Hawaiian Offshore Waters, there will be a slight chance of thunderstorms through Monday…as an upper trough of low pressure and increased moisture mix it up.

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Large surf east shores


>> Southern California Weather Brief: A push of monsoonal moisture from the east may bring isolated showers and thunderstorms, focused across interior areas, through Wednesday. Increased cloud coverage may bring additional cooling for many areas Monday before a gradual warming trend takes hold this week. Hot and humid conditions are possible next weekend with the possible return of monsoon moisture.

High pressure should start to build back in for late week, and a warming trend should establish itself, then a lower confidence pattern develops after Friday…as the possibility of the remnants of Tropical Storm Hilary get embedded into the flow pattern.

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Mostly clear inland, low clouds offshore…extending inland locally

 

>>> San Francisco Bay area weather brief: Cooling is forecast for Monday and Tuesday, due to a deepening marine layer and increased onshore flow. Warming is then expected during the second half of the week, as an upper ridge builds back across California. Aside from some possible coastal drizzle during the next few nights/early mornings…no precipitation is presently expected in our area through the extended period.

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Low clouds hugging the coast…deeper clouds with thunderstorms over Nevada



World-wide tropical cyclone activity


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>>> Atlantic Ocean: No active tropical cyclone

No tropical cyclones are expected during the next 5-days

>>> Caribbean: No active tropical cyclone

No tropical cyclones are expected during the next 5-days

>>> Gulf of Mexico: No active tropical cyclones

No tropical cyclones are expected during the next 5-days

Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Eastern Pacific:

Tropical Storm Greg remains active, here’s a graphical track map, a satellite image…and what the computer models are showing

Hurricane Hilary remains active, here’s a graphical track map, a satellite image…and what the computer models are showing

Tropical Storm Irwin remains active, here’s a graphical track map, a satellite image…and what the computer models are showing

Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>>
Central Pacific
: No active tropical cyclone

No tropical cyclones are expected during the next 5-days

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

>>> Northwest Pacific Ocean:

Typhoon 07W (Noru) is active, here’s a graphical track map, a satellite image…and what the computer models are showing.

Tropical Storm 08W (Sonca) is active, here’s a graphical track map, a satellite image…and what the computer models are showing.

Tropical Storm 09W (Kulap) is active, here’s a graphical track map, a satellite image…and what the computer models are showing

>>> South Pacific Ocean: No active tropical cyclones

>>>
North and South Indian Oceans / Arabian Sea:
No active tropical cyclones


Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)



Interesting:
The Weather Forecast for August, September and October? Hot!
— Grab that iced tea — much of the U.S. has had a hot summer so far, and it’s only going to get hotter, according to a report released by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

For the next three months — August, September and October — the United States is predicted to have above-average temperatures, Dan Collins, a meteorologist and seasonal forecaster with the NOAA Climate Prediction Center-Operational Prediction Branch, said in news briefing today.

“You can see that across the entire United States, including Alaska, there is more of a chance that temperatures will be above normal,” Collins said.

Grab that iced tea — much of the U.S. has had a hot summer so far, and it’s only going to get hotter, according to a report released today (July 20) by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

For the next three months — August, September and October — the United States is predicted to have above-average temperatures, Dan Collins, a meteorologist and seasonal forecaster with the NOAA Climate Prediction Center-Operational Prediction Branch, said in news briefing today.

“You can see that across the entire United States, including Alaska, there is more of a chance that temperatures will be above normal,” Collins said.

There are several reasons for these above-normal temperatures. One is due to increased ridging in the atmosphere over the northern-central U.S. This means that “the circulation of the atmosphere is such that there is higher pressure in that region,” which leads to higher temperatures, Collins said.

Moreover, long-term trends — that is, climate change — are playing a significant role this season. The NOAA Climate Prediction Center uses the past three decades as a reference period, and the “most recent decade is somewhat warmer than the previous three decades, from 1981 to 2010,” Collins said.

NOAA experts also detailed global weather trends. This June was 1.4 degrees Fahrenheit (0.82 degrees Celsius) above the 20th-century average, said Jake Crouch, a climate scientist at NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information-Climate Monitoring Branch. It was also the third-warmest June on record — only June 2015 and June 2016 were warmer, Crouch said.

That makes it the 41st consecutive June and the 390th consecutive month that was warmer than average, he noted.

While 2017 isn’t as hot as 2016 was — the latter had El Nino to heat it up (El Nino is associated with warm waters in the Pacific Ocean changing the air-surface pressure and atmospheric circulation) — it’s on track to be the second-warmest year in recent history.