Air Temperatures – The following high temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Saturday…along with the low temperatures Saturday:

87 – 78  Lihue, Kauai
87 – 76  Honolulu, Oahu
91 – 78  Molokai
90 75  Kahului AP, Mauirecord high temperature Saturday was 96…back in 1951
87 – 76  Kailua Kona
84 – 71  Hilo AP, Hawaii

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands as of Saturday evening:

1.28  Mount Waialeale, Kauai
0.63  Poamoho RG, Oahu
0.28  Molokai
0.42  Lanai
0.03  Kahoolawe

2.22  Puu Kukui, Maui
1.83  Kawainui Stream, Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph) as of Saturday evening:

29  Port Allen, Kauai
27  Oahu Forest NWR, Oahu

25  Molokai
23  Lanai

32 
Kahoolawe
29  Maalaea Bay, Maui

28  Kealakomo, Big Island

Hawaii’s MountainsHere’s a link to the live webcam on the summit of our tallest mountain Mauna Kea (nearly 13,800 feet high) on the Big Island of Hawaii. This webcam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands, and at night whenever there’s a big moon shining down. Also, at night you will be able to see the stars — and the sunrise and sunset too — depending upon weather conditions.


Aloha Paragraphs

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Post-Tropical Cyclone Fernanda, and Tropical Storms Greg, Hilary and Irwin to the east

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Post-Tropical Cyclone Fernanda is approaching the islands

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Fernanda is now a remnant low

 

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Thunderstorms near Kauai…and to the east

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Variable clouds…with some heavy showers in the vicinity


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Showers locally…some remain generous offshore
Looping radar image

 

High Surf Advisory…east shores of Kauai, Oahu, Molokai, Maui and the Big Island

Special Weather Statement…Coastal Flooding Possible:

Coastal flooding associated with king tides will continue to be a possibility the next couple of days. The greatest potential for coastal flooding impacts will be during the mid to late afternoon hours through Monday, when the highest tides are expected.

Surf is elevated along east-facing shores, and this will likely cause greater wave run-up along some exposed windward coastlines, especially during high tide. Impacts of the king tides may include flooding of beaches that are normally dry, salt water inundation of typically vulnerable low-lying roads, docks, boat ramps and other coastal infrastructure. The threat of coastal flooding will ease by Tuesday, as the peak daily tides diminish.

 

~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~

 

Broad Brush Overview: Our usual summertime trades will be wetter than usual tonight, due to an upper trough of low pressure located to the west of the islands. This upper trough will weaken Sunday, with fewer showers expected then. However, another trough of low pressure, the remnants of Fernanda, will move across the islands Sunday night and Monday. This in turn will enhance the showers once again, and bring lighter winds and sultry conditions our way briefly. Increasing trades and more settled weather will return later Tuesday…as high pressure far to the northeast brings strengthening trades back.

Details: As whatever is left of Fernanda gets closer, we will gradually become more sultry, especially by Sunday night into Tuesday morning. There’s the possibility of locally heavy showers developing over leeward upcountry Maui and the Big Island Sunday and Monday afternoons. There’s always the chance that we may get flooding rainfall from TC Fernanda’s remnants…although it’s still too early to know the exact details concerning rainfall rates and locations of these downpours.

The trade winds will be moderately strong this weekend, then becoming lighter Monday and Tuesday. The deep tropical moisture from dissipating Fernanda will arrive over the Big Island Sunday evening, and gradually spread westward through Monday night…with increasing humidity. This deeper moisture will result in localized heavy showers especially Monday afternoon. These showers will be enhanced by the daytime heating, light winds…and the unstable atmospherics.

Looking Further Ahead: Drier air arriving in the wake of Fernanda, will be accompanied by locally stronger trades, lasting through Friday at least. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Greg is forecast by National Hurricane Center (NHC) to continue on a generally westward to west-northwestward track through the next several days. Greg is expected to become a remnant low by Wednesday…just as it pushes into our central Pacific. It’s too early to know if Greg will be able to bring showers to Hawaii next weekend. However, it would be wise to at least keep an eye on this next spinner going forward. >>> Speaking of spinning, check this out…and don’t forget to look at the far ends, with one storm offshore from southern Mexico…and then pan far left to that storm in the South China Sea – 8 in total!

Here’s a wind profile of the Pacific Ocean – Closer view of the islands / Here’s the vog forecast animation / Here’s the latest weather map

Marine environment details: The Small Craft Advisory will remain active until noon today, due to the locally strong trade winds blowing around the waters of Maui County and the waters south of the Big Island. This advisory will likely return on Tuesday of next week…with the return of the locally stronger trades again then.

The High Surf Advisory remains in effect for the east facing shores of the Big Island, Maui, Kauai, Molokai and Oahu. It remains posted through Monday morning, due to a east swell associated with Tropical Storm Fernanda, when it was a major hurricane in the eastern Pacific.

The largest high tides of the month will occur each afternoon during the next few days. These high tides, combined with wave run-up due to the east swells produced by Fernanda, may result in coastal flooding in some areas through Monday.

Elsewhere, no significant swells are expected. Small south swells will continue to produce surf along south facing shores through the weekend…and on into next week.

Over the offshore waters, there will be a chance of isolated thunderstorms over portions of the area today through Monday, as an upper trough and increased moisture from Fernanda’s remnants move across the area.

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Large surf east shores


>>> Southern California Weather Brief: For the next few days, a typical summer weather pattern will bring night through morning low clouds and fog to the coasts and some of the valleys. Temperatures will be near normal. There is a slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoons and evenings for the deserts and mountains on Monday and Tuesday.

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Mostly clear inland, low clouds offshore…extending inland locally

 

>>> San Francisco Bay area weather brief: Warmer temperatures are expected for this afternoon, especially inland. Temperatures will then begin to moderate on Sunday, as a weak upper level trough begins to develop off the coast. A more pronounced cooling trend appears on tap for the first part of next week, with a deepening marine layer and increased onshore flow. Then by the latter part of the week, high pressure builds back in again, resulting in a return to warming temperatures. Aside from some possible coastal drizzle, no precipitation is presently expected in the area through the forecast period.

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Low clouds offshore…clear inland



World-wide tropical cyclone activity


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>>> Atlantic Ocean: No active tropical cyclone

No tropical cyclones are expected during the next 5-days

>>> Caribbean: No active tropical cyclone

No tropical cyclones are expected during the next 5-days

>>> Gulf of Mexico: No active tropical cyclones

No tropical cyclones are expected during the next 5-days

Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Eastern Pacific:

Tropical Storm Greg remains active, here’s a graphical track map, a satellite image…and what the computer models are showing

Tropical Storm Hilary remains active, here’s a graphical track map, a satellite image…and what the computer models are showing

Tropical Storm Irwin remains active, here’s a graphical track map, a satellite image…and what the computer models are showing

Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>>
Central Pacific
:

Post-Tropical Cyclone Fernanda is dissipating, here’s the track map, a satellite imageFinal Advisory

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

>>> Northwest Pacific Ocean:

Tropical Storm 07W (Noru) is active, here’s a graphical track map, a satellite image…and what the computer models are showing.

Tropical Storm 08W (Sonca) is active, here’s a graphical track map, a satellite image…and what the computer models are showing.

Tropical Storm 09W (Kulap) is active, here’s a graphical track map, a satellite image…and what the computer models are showing.

Tropical Depression 10W (Roke) is dissipating, here’s a graphical track map, a satellite imageFinal Warning

>>> South Pacific Ocean: No active tropical cyclones

>>>
North and South Indian Oceans / Arabian Sea:
No active tropical cyclones


Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)



Interesting:
Monsoon Storms Fewer but More Extreme
— Monsoon season now brings more extreme wind and rain to central and southwestern Arizona than in the past, according to new research led by the University of Arizona.

Although there are now fewer storms, the largest monsoon thunderstorms bring heavier rain and stronger winds than did the monsoon storms of 60 years ago, the scientists report.

“The monsoon is the main severe weather threat in Arizona. Dust storms, wind, flash flooding, microbursts — those are the things that are immediate dangers to life and property,” said co-author Christopher Castro, a UA associate professor of hydrology and atmospheric sciences.

The researchers compared precipitation records from 1950-1970 to those from 1991-2010 for Arizona. They also used those records to verify that their climate model generated realistic results.

“This is one of the first studies to look at long-term changes in monsoon precipitation,” Castro said. “We documented that the increases in extreme precipitation are geographically focused south and west of the Mogollon Rim — and that includes Phoenix.”

The region of Arizona with more extreme storms includes Bullhead City, Kingman, the Phoenix metropolitan area, the Colorado River valley and Arizona’s low deserts, including the towns of Casa Grande, Gila Bend, Ajo, Lukeville and Yuma.

The Tohono O’odham Reservation, Luke Air Force Base, the Barry Goldwater Air Force Range and the Yuma Proving Ground also are in the region with more extreme monsoon weather.

Tucson is just outside of the zone with more extreme storms.

Having less frequent but more intense storms is consistent with what is expected throughout the world due to climate change, Castro said.

“Our work shows that it certainly holds true for the monsoon in Arizona,” he said.

When the researchers compared the results from climate and weather models to the actual observations, the model with a resolution of less than 1.5 miles accurately reproduced the precipitation data. The models with resolutions of 10 miles or more did not.

“You just can’t trust coarser simulations to represent changes in severe weather. You have to use the high-resolution model,” Castro said.

First author Thang M. Luong conducted the research as part of his doctoral work at the UA. He is now a postdoctoral researcher at King Abdullah University of Science and Technology in Thuwal, Saudi Arabia.

The paper, “The More Extreme Nature of North American Monsoon Precipitation in the Southwestern U.S. as Revealed by a Historical Climatology of Simulated Severe Weather Events,” by Luong, Castro, Hsin-I Chang and Timothy Lahmers of the UA Department of Hydrology and Atmospheric Sciences and David K. Adams and Carlos A. Ochoa-Moya of the Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, México D.F., was published in the online edition of the Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology.

The U.S. Department of Defense Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program and the Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México PAPIIT funded the research.

The researchers wanted to identify risks from warm-season extreme weather, especially those to Department of Defense installations in the American Southwest.

Existing global and regional climate change models don’t represent the North American monsoon well in either seasonal forecasts or climate projections, the research team wrote.

Looking at the average precipitation over the entire monsoon season doesn’t show whether monsoon storms are becoming more severe now compared with 60 years ago, Castro said.

Therefore Luong, Castro and their colleagues looked for extreme rainfall events during 1950-1970 as compared with 1991-2010. Average precipitation was about the same, but 1991-2011 had more storms with very heavy rain.

“What’s going on in the changes to the extremes is very different from what goes on in the changes to the mean,” Castro said. “Big storms, heavy flooding — we found out those types of extreme precipitation events are becoming more intense and are becoming more intense downwind of the mountain ranges.”

The team tested a common computer model of the atmosphere to try to replicate the historical changes in monsoon storm intensity. The model, similar to one used by the National Weather Service for forecasts, produces results similar to what would be observed on radar or satellite imagery by realistically simulating the physical structure of monsoon thunderstorms.

A key innovation of the UA research was the level of detail; the team tested several different levels of resolution. Only by using the high resolution of 1.5 miles could the model replicate the actual rainfall recorded for the two 20-year periods being compared.

The recorded data showed only rainfall. The high-resolution models indicated rainier monsoon storms were accompanied by higher winds and more downbursts.

“Because the models get the precipitation right, it gives us confidence that the models get the winds right, too,” Castro said.

He said that in Phoenix, monsoon storms used to be late in the evening but are now happening earlier.

The time shift makes the storms more dangerous, he said, noting that “it’s when people are more likely to be out on the roads.”

The team’s next step, Castro said, is investigating whether the North American monsoon is changing in Mexico.