Air Temperatures – The following high temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Thursday…along with the low temperatures Thursday:

85 – 73  Lihue, Kauai
87 – 76  Honolulu, Oahu
85 – 74  Molokai
88 – 71  Kahului AP, Maui
85 – 73  Kailua Kona
84 – 66  Hilo AP, Hawaii

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands as of Thursday evening:

0.22  Mount Waialeale, Kauai
0.23  Moanalua RG 1, Oahu
 0.00  Molokai
0.00  Lanai
 0.01  Kahoolawe
0.06  Puu Kukui, Maui
0.56  Honaunau, Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph) as of Thursday evening:

23  Port Allen, Kauai
31  Kuaokala, Oahu
23  Molokai
27  Lanai
30  Kahoolawe
32  Maalaea Bay, Maui
36  Puu Mali, Big Island

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live webcam on the summit of our tallest mountain Mauna Kea (nearly 13,800 feet high) on the Big Island of Hawaii. This webcam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands, and at night whenever there’s a big moon shining down. Also, at night you will be able to see the stars — and the sunrise and sunset too — depending upon weather conditions.


Aloha Paragraphs

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An out of season cold front…approaching from the north

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Several thunderstorms far offshore to the southwest

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A mix of high and low clouds stretched across the state


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Showers locally – Looping radar image

 

~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~

 

Broad Brush Overview: Light to moderate trade winds will continue through the weekend, as high pressure remains parked to the north of the state. An increase in rainfall is expected for mainly windward areas of the smaller islands tonight, as an old frontal boundary sags southward. Windward areas will remain wet through the weekend into next week, with off and on passing showers expected. Some of these showers will be carried over to leeward locations.

Details: This very unusual cold front cloud band may disrupt the trades enough to bring light winds and sea breezes Saturday, before moderate trade winds return Sunday into to at least early next week. Windward rainfall totals will fall in the moderate range through the weekend…with the increased moisture from the old front enhancing showers.

Looking Further Ahead: This frontal boundary will push west of the islands by next week, although models are indicating that wet trade wind weather will continue…as enhanced moisture riding in on the trades pushes into the islands from the east.

Here’s a wind profile of the Pacific Ocean – Closer view of the islands / Here’s the vog forecast animation / Here’s the latest weather map

Marine environment details: A dissipating cold front will drift south over the next few days and by Friday, bring widespread showery conditions to the coastal waters, initially those north and west of the Big Island. These showery weather will last through the weekend into early next week.

Meanwhile, no small craft advisories are expected into early next week, as the trade winds remain light to moderate…and with no significant swells on the horizon.

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June Full Moon tonight

 

>>> Southern California Weather Brief: An onshore flow will result in persistent low stratus clouds, which will dominate sky conditions well inland. Temperatures will be slightly below normal, becoming even cooler this weekend. Gusty northerly winds are possible Friday and Saturday. Warmer to much warmer next week.

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Clouds offshore…although mostly clear to partly cloudy inland


World-wide tropical cyclone activity


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>>> Atlantic Ocean: No active tropical cyclones

>>> Caribbean: No active tropical cyclones

>>> Gulf of Mexico: No active tropical cyclones

Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Eastern Pacific: No active tropical cyclones

Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Central Pacific: No active tropical cyclones

Here’s the NOAA 2016 Hurricane Season Summary for the Central Pacific Basin

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

>>> Northwest Pacific Ocean: No active tropical cyclones

>>> South Pacific Ocean: No active tropical cyclones

>>> North and South Indian Oceans / Arabian Sea: No active tropical cyclones


Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)


Interesting: Where climate change is most likely to induce food violence – While climate change is expected to lead to more violence related to food scarcity, new research suggests that the strength of a country’s government plays a vital role in preventing uprisings.

“A capable government is even more important to keeping the peace than good weather,” said Bear Braumoeller, co-author of the study and associate professor of political science at The Ohio State University.

While previous studies had examined the impact of climate change-induced weather patterns on violence and the increased danger of violence in weak or failing states, this is the first study to demonstrate that the combination of the two risk factors is even more dangerous than they would be separately.

Braumoeller conducted the study with his former doctoral students Benjamin Jones, now at the University of Mississippi, and Eleonora Mattiacci, now at Amherst College.

Their results appear in the Journal of Peace Research.

“We’ve already started to see climate change as an issue that won’t just put the coasts under water, but as something that could cause food riots in some parts of the world,” Braumoeller said.

Extreme weather such as droughts and floods could hurt agricultural production in some countries, leading to violence there or elsewhere by people who are desperate for food.

“Climate-induced food scarcity is going to become an increasingly big issue and we wanted to understand which countries are most threatened by it,” he said.

The researchers estimated the effects of food insecurity and state vulnerability on the occurrence of violent uprisings in Africa for the years 1991 to 2011.

The researchers used a variety of measurements for both food shocks that lead to violence and to gauge the vulnerability of countries.

For the climate-related causes of food shocks, the researchers analyzed rainfall, temperature and – importantly – the international prices of food, including sudden increases in prices.

“We recognized that countries that imported food could be impacted by climate shocks in other parts of the world that suddenly increased prices, even if they weren’t experiencing any significant weather impacts themselves,” Braumoeller said.

When examining countries’ vulnerabilities, the researchers analyzed a host of factors including a country’s dependence on agricultural production, its imports, the strength of its political institutions and its wealth.

“We found that the most vulnerable countries are those that have weak political institutions, are relatively poor and rely more on agriculture,” he said.

“Less vulnerable countries can better handle the problems that droughts or food price fluctuations create.”

These results suggest ways that the United States and the worldwide community can respond to these challenges.

Addressing the vulnerabilities of countries is “crucial to breaking the link between food insecurity and violence,” Braumoeller said.

That means more than providing food aid to offset shortages in the short-term. More broadly, efforts should be focused on strengthening government institutions in vulnerable countries and helping them invest in “green growth” policies aimed at increasing economic growth while fostering resilience to climate shocks, he said.

“Development aid is important now and it is likely to be even more important in the future as we look for ways to increase climate resilience,” Braumoeller said.