Air Temperatures – The following high temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Monday…along with the low temperatures Monday:

85 – 76  Lihue, Kauai
86 – 74  Honolulu, Oahu
84 – 75  Molokai
84 – 71  Kahului AP, Maui
84 – 75  Kailua Kona
84 – 70  Hilo AP, Hawaii

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands as of Monday evening:

3.46  Mount Waialeale, Kauai
2.10  Manoa Lyon Arboretum, Oahu
 0.65  Molokai
0.07  Lanai
 0.14  Kahoolawe
2.33  Puu Kukui, Maui
2.26  Pahoa, Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph) as of Monday evening:

28  Port Allen, Kauai
35  Oahu Forest NWR, Oahu
27  Molokai
 20  Lanai
35  Kahoolawe
33  Maalaea Bay, Maui
33  Puu Mali, Big Island

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live webcam on the summit of our tallest mountain Mauna Kea (nearly 13,800 feet high) on the Big Island of Hawaii. This webcam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands, and at night whenever there’s a big moon shining down. Also, at night you will be able to see the stars — and the sunrise and sunset too — depending upon weather conditions.


Aloha Paragraphs

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_ir_enh_west_loop-12.gif
A diffuse out-of-season cold front…remains over the state

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/cpac/ir4.jpg
Thunderstorms well offshore to the south and southeast

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Clear to partly cloudy…some cloudy areas locally


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Showers locally…some are turning quite generous
Looping radar image


Small Craft Advisory…windiest coasts and channels around Maui County and the Big Island

 

~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~

 

Broad Brush Overview: The trade winds are forecast to increase Tuesday and Wednesday, as high pressure to our north consolidates and drifts eastward. Clouds and showers will continue to favor windward and mountain areas, although will occasionally affect leeward areas as well. Showers are expected to become more widespread, with locally heavy downpours and thunderstorms possible later Tuesday into Thursday, as an upper low pressure area moves over the islands. Fewer showers are expected by the weekend as the upper low departs.

Details: Moderately strong high pressure well north of the islands, will shift slowly eastward over the next couple of days. This high pressure area will weaken slightly, then remain nearly stationary far northeast of the islands through the week. Models show a slight increase in wind speeds Tuesday through Thursday, then lighter trades Friday into the weekend…as the high is weakened by a passing cold front to the north. Moisture brought in by the trades continues to fuel areas of showers, a pattern expected to continue in an off and on manner.

Looking Further Ahead: A developing upper level low pressure system is expected to track southwestward toward the islands, increasing instability and possibly leading to development of locally heavy downpours and thunderstorms. These unusual, at least for this time of year, unsettled weather conditions may remain active later Tuesday through Thursday. After the low aloft passes southwest of the islands, upper high pressure will replace it…leading to a more stable weather pattern Friday into the weekend.

Here’s a wind profile of the Pacific Ocean – Closer view of the islands / Here’s the vog forecast animation / Here’s the latest weather map

Marine environment details: A high pressure system far northeast of the islands, will maintain gentle to locally stronger winds today. Winds are expected to strengthen tonight and Tuesday, as the high pressure cell builds southeastward. A Small Craft Advisory may become necessary then for waters around the Big Island and Maui County.

No significant swells are expected through Thursday. A new south swell is forecast to arrive Friday night and continue through the weekend. The windward sides of the islands will find rather rough and choppy conditions…as the trades strengthen.

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Small surf all shores…locally near flat

 

>>> Southern California Weather Brief: A low pressure system over the Northern Sierras will shift east of the area. A warming trend is expected through the week, as high pressure builds over the region…with highs in the upper 90’s over inland areas by Thursday…and some triple digit temperatures Friday into the weekend.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/wfo/lox/cvis.jpg
Mostly clear area wide


World-wide tropical cyclone activity


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>>> Atlantic Ocean: No active tropical cyclones

>>> Caribbean: No active tropical cyclones

>>> Gulf of Mexico: No active tropical cyclones

Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Eastern Pacific:

Tropical Cyclone 03E (Calvin) has moved inland over southern Mexico, here’s the NHC graphical track map, with a satellite image…and what the computer models are showing

Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Central Pacific: No active tropical cyclones

Here’s the NOAA 2016 Hurricane Season Summary for the Central Pacific Basin

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

>>> Northwest Pacific Ocean:

Tropical Cyclone 04W (Merbok) is dissipating as it has moved inland near Hong Kong, here’s the JTWC graphical track map, with a satellite image – Final Warning

>>> South Pacific Ocean: No active tropical cyclones

>>> North and South Indian Oceans / Arabian Sea: No active tropical cyclones


Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)


Interesting: NASA Data Suggest Future May Be Rainier Than Expected – A new study suggests that most global climate models may underestimate the amount of rain that will fall in Earth’s tropical regions as our planet continues to warm. That’s because these models underestimate decreases in high clouds over the tropics seen in recent NASA observations, according to research led by scientist Hui Su of NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California.

Wait a minute: how can fewer clouds lead to more rainfall? Globally, rainfall isn’t related just to the clouds that are available to make rain but also to Earth’s “energy budget” — incoming energy from the sun compared to outgoing heat energy. High-altitude tropical clouds trap heat in the atmosphere. If there are fewer of these clouds in the future, the tropical atmosphere will cool. Judging from observed changes in clouds over recent decades, it appears that the atmosphere would create fewer high clouds in response to surface warming. It would also increase tropical rainfall, which would warm the air to balance the cooling from the high cloud shrinkage.

Rainfall warming the air also sounds counterintuitive — people are used to rain cooling the air around them, not warming it. Several miles up in the atmosphere, however, a different process prevails. When water evaporates into water vapor here on Earth’s surface and rises into the atmosphere, it carries with it the heat energy that made it evaporate. In the cold upper atmosphere, when the water vapor condenses into liquid droplets or ice particles, it releases its heat and warms the atmosphere.

The new study is published in the journal Nature Communications. It puts the decrease in high tropical cloud cover in context as one result of a planet-wide shift in large-scale air flows that is occurring as Earth’s surface temperature warms. These large-scale flows are called the atmospheric general circulation, and they include a wide zone of rising air centered on the equator. Observations over the last 30 to 40 years have shown that this zone is narrowing as the climate warms, causing the decrease in high clouds.

Su and colleagues at JPL and four universities compared climate data from the past few decades with 23 climate model simulations of the same period. Climate modelers use retrospective simulations like these to check how well their numerical models are able to reproduce observations. For data, the team used observations of outgoing thermal radiation from NASA’s spaceborne Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) and other satellite instruments, as well as ground-level observations.

Su’s team found that most of the climate models underestimated the rate of increase in precipitation for each degree of surface warming that has occurred in recent decades. The models that came closest to matching observations of clouds in the present-day climate showed a greater precipitation increase for the future than the other models.

Su said that by tracing the underestimation problem back to the models’ deficiencies in representing tropical high clouds and the atmospheric general circulation, “This study provides a pathway for improving predictions of future precipitation change.”

The study is titled “Tightening of Tropical Ascent and High Clouds Key to Precipitation Change in a Warmer Climate.”