Air Temperatures – The following high temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Sunday…along with the low temperatures Sunday:

85 – 76  Lihue, Kauai
85 – 73  Honolulu, Oahu
86 – 74  Molokai
86 – 75  Kahului AP, Maui
83 – 74  Kailua Kona
86 – 71  Hilo AP, Hawaii

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands as of Sunday evening:

1.33  Mount Waialeale, Kauai
0.65  Luluku, Oahu
 0.25  Molokai
0.06  Lanai
 0.07  Kahoolawe
0.99  Ulupalakua, Maui
1.10  Ahumoa, Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph) as of Sunday evening:

17  Port Allen, Kauai
22  Kuaokala, Oahu
21  Molokai
 16  Lanai
27  Kahoolawe
28  Maalaea Bay, Maui
30  Puu Mali, Big Island

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live webcam on the summit of our tallest mountain Mauna Kea (nearly 13,800 feet high) on the Big Island of Hawaii. This webcam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands, and at night whenever there’s a big moon shining down. Also, at night you will be able to see the stars — and the sunrise and sunset too — depending upon weather conditions.


Aloha Paragraphs

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_ir_enh_west_loop-12.gif
A diffuse out-of-season cold front…remains over the state

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/cpac/ir4.jpg
Thunderstorms well offshore to the south

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/satellite/latest/Hawaii_IR.gif
Partly to mostly cloudy…some clear areas locally too


http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/RadarImg/hawaii.gif
Showers…mostly windward and offshore – Looping radar image

 

~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~

 

Broad Brush Overview: Light to moderate trade winds will prevail for the next several days, although winds may become somewhat stronger around the middle of the new week. The trade winds will periodically deliver clouds and showers to the islands, as moisture associated with a dissipated cold front streams in on the trades. Most of the clouds and showers will favor windward slopes and coasts, with a few showers spreading to leeward areas locally. Fewer showers and lighter winds are expected by next weekend.

Details: A high pressure system far north-northeast of the islands will drift slowly east over the next few days…while weakening slightly. The high will then remain nearly stationary to the distant northeast of the islands through next weekend. This late spring high is expected to support moderate trade winds through Thursday. A trend toward lighter trades is expected by the end of the week, as the ridge north of the islands is weakened by a passing front to the  north. As the front stalls, the models anticipate the trade winds restrengthening.

An out-of-season cold front, which pretty much fell apart to the northeast of the islands recently, has sent its remnant moisture into the trade wind flow upstream of the islands, and continues to fuel areas of showers. As the moisture band consolidates into distinct patches at times, island weather will likely be characterized by periods of showery weather…interspersed with periods of clearing. Meanwhile, only isolated small showers are in the forecast for windward Big Island, as limited moisture is noted immediately upstream. 

Looking Further Ahead: While a break in the moisture may move across the islands Monday night, models are indicating another slug of moisture riding in on the trade wind flow Tuesday and Wednesday. Additionally, a developing low aloft is expected to track toward the islands from the northeast, increasing the instability of the island air mass…likely leading to at least a few locally heavy showers. The low is forecast to move slowly west, likely keeping instability around through Thursday, before a more stable weather pattern arrives Friday into next weekend.

Rainfall will be concentrated over windward areas, although some of the showers will spread leeward, especially during the night and morning hours. The developing low aloft will likely produce periods of high clouds over the islands through the first half of the coming week. These clouds are not expected to produce any precipitation that reaches the surface, although will dim and filter our daytime sunshine at times. These icy high Cirrus clouds are also famous for providing the islands with colorful sunrise and sunset colors at times too.

Here’s a wind profile of the Pacific Ocean – Closer view of the islands / Here’s the vog forecast animation / Here’s the latest weather map

Marine environment details: Remnants of an old frontal boundary over the smaller islands, including Maui County, will continue to affect these islands today. High pressure north of the islands will keep light to moderate trade winds blowing. The trades are expected to become a bit stronger Monday through the middle of the new week, as high pressure strengthens north of the islands. This will raise the prospect for Small Craft Advisories over the waters around Maui County…and waters south of the Big Island.

No significant swells are expected. Small swells from the north and south will affect those shores respectively, while light to moderate trades produce a small wind swell along windward beaches.

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Small surf all shores…locally flat

 

>>> Southern California Weather Brief: A low pressure system aloft will settle over the Great Basin today, bringing below normal temperatures to the interior. Much warmer temperatures are expected next week, as high pressure aloft builds into the region. Night to morning low clouds will likely be limited along the coast during this time.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/wfo/lox/cvis.jpg
Generally clear to partly cloudy offshore…scattered clouds inland


World-wide tropical cyclone activity


https://icons.wxug.com/data/images/sst_basin/gl_sst_mm.gif


>>> Atlantic Ocean: No active tropical cyclones

>>> Caribbean: No active tropical cyclones

>>> Gulf of Mexico: No active tropical cyclones

Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Eastern Pacific: 

Tropical Cyclone 03E remains active offshore from southern Mexico, here’s the NHC graphical track map, with a satellite image…and what the computer models are showing

Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Central Pacific: No active tropical cyclones

Here’s the NOAA 2016 Hurricane Season Summary for the Central Pacific Basin

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

>>> Northwest Pacific Ocean:

Tropical Cyclone 04W (Merbok) remains active in the South China Sea, here’s the JTWC graphical track map, with a satellite image…and what the computer models are showing

>>> South Pacific Ocean: No active tropical cyclones

>>> North and South Indian Oceans / Arabian Sea: No active tropical cyclones


Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)


Interesting: NASA Data Suggest Future May Be Rainier Than Expected – A new study suggests that most global climate models may underestimate the amount of rain that will fall in Earth’s tropical regions as our planet continues to warm. That’s because these models underestimate decreases in high clouds over the tropics seen in recent NASA observations, according to research led by scientist Hui Su of NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California.

Wait a minute: how can fewer clouds lead to more rainfall? Globally, rainfall isn’t related just to the clouds that are available to make rain but also to Earth’s “energy budget” — incoming energy from the sun compared to outgoing heat energy. High-altitude tropical clouds trap heat in the atmosphere. If there are fewer of these clouds in the future, the tropical atmosphere will cool. Judging from observed changes in clouds over recent decades, it appears that the atmosphere would create fewer high clouds in response to surface warming. It would also increase tropical rainfall, which would warm the air to balance the cooling from the high cloud shrinkage.

Rainfall warming the air also sounds counterintuitive — people are used to rain cooling the air around them, not warming it. Several miles up in the atmosphere, however, a different process prevails. When water evaporates into water vapor here on Earth’s surface and rises into the atmosphere, it carries with it the heat energy that made it evaporate. In the cold upper atmosphere, when the water vapor condenses into liquid droplets or ice particles, it releases its heat and warms the atmosphere.

The new study is published in the journal Nature Communications. It puts the decrease in high tropical cloud cover in context as one result of a planet-wide shift in large-scale air flows that is occurring as Earth’s surface temperature warms. These large-scale flows are called the atmospheric general circulation, and they include a wide zone of rising air centered on the equator. Observations over the last 30 to 40 years have shown that this zone is narrowing as the climate warms, causing the decrease in high clouds.

Su and colleagues at JPL and four universities compared climate data from the past few decades with 23 climate model simulations of the same period. Climate modelers use retrospective simulations like these to check how well their numerical models are able to reproduce observations. For data, the team used observations of outgoing thermal radiation from NASA’s spaceborne Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) and other satellite instruments, as well as ground-level observations.

Su’s team found that most of the climate models underestimated the rate of increase in precipitation for each degree of surface warming that has occurred in recent decades. The models that came closest to matching observations of clouds in the present-day climate showed a greater precipitation increase for the future than the other models.

Su said that by tracing the underestimation problem back to the models’ deficiencies in representing tropical high clouds and the atmospheric general circulation, “This study provides a pathway for improving predictions of future precipitation change.”

The study is titled “Tightening of Tropical Ascent and High Clouds Key to Precipitation Change in a Warmer Climate.”