Air Temperatures – The following high temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Thursday…along with the low temperatures Thursday:

84 – 75  Lihue, Kauai
86 – 75  Honolulu, Oahu
84 – 70  Molokai
88 – 66  Kahului AP, Maui
86 – 72  Kailua Kona
83 – 69  Hilo AP, Hawaii

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands as of Thursday evening:

0.30  Mount Waialeale, Kauai
0.06  Kahuku Trng Area, Oahu
 0.00  Molokai
0.00  Lanai
 0.00  Kahoolawe
0.05  West Wailuaiki, Maui
0.32  Saddle Quarry, Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph) as of Thursday evening:

30  Port Allen, Kauai
40  Oahu Forest NWR, Oahu
32  Molokai
32  Lanai
42  Kahoolawe
38  Kahului AP, Maui
37  Kealakomo, Big Island

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live webcam on the summit of our tallest mountain Mauna Kea (nearly 13,800 feet high) on the Big Island of Hawaii. This webcam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands, and at night whenever there’s a big moon shining down. Also, at night you will be able to see the stars — and the sunrise and sunset too — depending upon weather conditions.


Aloha Paragraphs

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High Cirrus clouds approaching from the west

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High clouds west and southwest of Hawaii…thunderstorms far south

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Clear to partly cloudy…cloudy areas


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Showers locally – Looping radar image


Small Craft Advisory…coasts and channels statewide

 

~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~

 

Broad Brush Overview: High pressure passing by to the north of the state will strengthen the trade winds, with gusty conditions then expected Friday through the weekend. The trades will back off a notch next week, as high pressure north of the island chain weakens. Clouds and showers will favor windward areas through the middle of next week…with a few showers drifting into leeward areas from time to time due to the strength of the trades.

Details: A surface ridge of high pressure to the northeast of the state is supporting the trade winds, while a high pressure ridge aloft is creating stable conditions over the islands. The airport soundings reveal an inversion around 6,000 feet, and precipitable water values near 1.2 inches…which is a little below normal for this late spring season. With a few exceptions, minor shower activity will be confined to the windward sides for the time being.

Looking Further Ahead: The ridge to the northeast of the state will be replaced by a strong high pressure system far north-northwest of the islands. This high will become robust as it slowly passes by well north of the state into Saturday, keeping the gusty trade winds active. Trades will ease a notch Sunday and Monday…as the high moves off to the northeast. Models are hinting at a weak upper level trough of  low pressure developing over the islands by the weekend. This feature may be strong enough to weaken and elevate the inversion, leading to some increase in shower activity then.

Here’s a wind profile of the Pacific Ocean – Closer view of the islands / Here’s the vog forecast animation / Here’s the latest weather map

Marine environment details: The trade winds will continue to strengthen across the area, as a high pressure ridge builds north of the islands. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is in effect for the waters around Maui and the Big Island for these winds…with strong trades expected into the weekend. As this occurs, more coastal and channel waters will likely to be added to the SCA.

The stronger trades will produce an east swell, bringing rough and choppy surf to the windward sides of the islands. The current small north-northwest swell will diminish today. A south swell will provide small breaking waves along leeward beaches through the rest of the week.

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Trade winds picking up in strength

 

>>> Southern California Weather Brief: High pressure will build in Friday and Saturday, bringing back fair weather and above normal temperatures, although shallow marine layer clouds will linger near the coast. An upper level trough of low pressure will arrive Sunday…increasing the marine layer and cooler temperatures into early next week.

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Partly to mostly cloudy…skies are clear in many areas


World-wide tropical cyclone activity


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>>> Atlantic Ocean: No active tropical cyclones

>>> Caribbean: No active tropical cyclones

>>> Gulf of Mexico: No active tropical cyclones

Today marks the first day of the Atlantic hurricane season, which will run until November 30. Long-term averages for the number of named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes are 12, 6, and 3, respectively.

One tropical cyclone, Tropical Storm Arlene, already formed this year in April. The next named storm that forms this season will be Bret.

Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Eastern Pacific: Tropical Depression 02E (Beatriz) now having moved inland over southern Mexico, here’s the NHC graphical track map, and a satellite image of this system

Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Central Pacific: No active tropical cyclones

Here’s the NOAA 2016 Hurricane Season Summary for the Central Pacific Basin

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

>>> Northwest Pacific Ocean: No active tropical cyclones

>>> South Pacific Ocean: No active tropical cyclones

>>> North and South Indian Oceans / Arabian Sea: No active tropical cyclones


Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)


Interesting: A brave new world for coral reefs – The future of the world’s coral reefs hangs in the balance, but it is not too late to save them, according to a major study published today in the prestigious journal, Nature.

Scientists say that the reefs we know today are changing rapidly as they struggle to cope with the combined impacts of global warming, over fishing and pollution.

“The reefs of the future will be radically different from today or 30 years ago,” says Professor Terry Hughes, Director of the ARC Center of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies (Coral CoE). He led the study on reef futures and their capacity for rapid shifts. “But, if we take the right steps immediately, we can – and must – secure a future for reefs, recognizing that the possibility of restoring them to their former condition is no longer possible.”

“Current approaches to protecting coral reefs are failing because too often we ignore the real reasons for their decline,” says co-author Professor Josh Cinner, also from the Coral CoE. “We need to understand why they are declining, and encourage changes in human behavior to sustain reefs for the future.”

“It’s death by a thousand cuts,” remarked co-author Professor Jeremy Jackson, from the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute. “Reefs suffer simultaneously from dredging, over harvesting, pollution, sewage, sediments, and steadily increasing temperatures.”

These combined elements are transforming reefs into new configurations, where the mix of species is rapidly changing. According to the scientists, navigating this transition will require radical shifts in the science, management and governance of reefs worldwide.

“We can’t save every species or turn back history,” Prof. Hughes explained. “The challenge now is to steer reefs into the future, to ensure that they remain fully functional, and to retain their ability to support the livelihoods and well being of the 100s of millions of people who depend on them.”

Professor Steve Palumbi, Director of Stanford University’s Hopkins Marine Station, adds, “Coral species themselves are changing, evolving, adapting at a huge scale. Their ability to change rapidly is an asset for us – the corals that live on warmer reefs now may be better prepared for future conditions. And every asset we have is important to use,” he said.

“The window of opportunity to save reefs remains open, but it is closing rapidly,” the scientists say. “One degree of average global warming has already caused three global coral bleaching events, so +1.5 or +2C will radically change reefs for centuries to come.”

The scientists base their future vision on the COP21 Paris agreement. Reefs will run the gauntlet of climate change over coming decades as ocean temperatures continue to climb. However, some areas will warm less than others, and under the COP21 Paris Agreement, the most extreme future temperature rises and severe impacts of ocean acidification will be avoided.

Prof. Hughes is emphatic about the importance of COP21 to reefs: “They’ll be different, but recognizable as coral reefs. However, if COP21 fails badly, coral reefs as we know them today will be destroyed.”