Air Temperatures – The following high temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Monday…along with the low temperatures Monday:

83 75  Lihue, Kauai
86 74  Honolulu, Oahu
82 73  Molokai
8472  Kahului AP, Maui
83 72  Kona Int’l AP
7869  Hilo AP, Hawaii

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands as of Monday evening:

1.30  Mount Waialeale, Kauai
0.58  Manoa Lyon Arboretum, Oahu
0.10  Molokai
0.00  Lanai
0.01  Kahoolawe
1.12  West Wailuaiki, Maui
6.20  Saddle Quarry, Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph) as of Monday evening:

31  Port Allen, Kauai
35  Oahu Forest NWR, Oahu
31  Molokai
33  Lanai
40  Kahoolawe

32  Kahului AP, Maui
38  Waikoloa, Big Island

Hawaii’s MountainsHere’s a link to the live webcam on the summit of our tallest mountain Mauna Kea (nearly 13,800 feet high) on the Big Island of Hawaii. This webcam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands, and at night whenever there’s a big moon shining down. Also, at night you will be able to see the stars — and the sunrise and sunset too — depending upon weather conditions.


Aloha Paragraphs

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The next late season cold front…approaching to the northwest

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/cpac/vis.jpg
A few heavy showers in the vicinity

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Clear to partly cloudy…with cloudy areas locally

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Showers, some are quite generous…especially around the Big Island
Looping radar image


Small Craft Advisory
…windiest coasts and channels around Oahu, Maui County, and the Big Island

High Surf Advisory…east shores of Kauai, Oahu, Molokai, Maui and the Big Island

Winter Weather Advisory…above 12,000 feet on the summits on the Big Island / freezing fog

 

~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~

 

Broad Brush Overview: A strong high pressure system far northeast of the islands, will move northeast slowly and weaken through early next week…as a late season cold front approaches from the northwest. A trough of low pressure aloft will linger over the islands through Tuesday evening, with a low aloft forming northeast of the islands. The trough will then move slowly northeast during the second half of the week…as a ridge aloft builds over the islands from the northwest.

Details: The upper low north of Kauai will drop southward over the state. In the lower levels, areas of enhanced moisture will continue moving over the Big Island from the east, while a somewhat drier airmass prevails over the other islands. There will continue to be ample moisture available, and coupled with daytime heating over the Big Island, there’s the chance of a few thunderstorms in the afternoon across the interior sections…as well as the windward and leeward slopes. Across the western half of the state, conditions will not be as unstable and available moisture less, although a few heavier showers will be possible. Most of the showers will remain focused over windward areas, although some may spread into leeward areas locally.

Looking Further Ahead: The upper trough will remain in place over the eastern part of the state, although the deeper moisture is forecast to shift southwest of the islands…as a drier airmass arrives from the northeast with continued breezy trade winds. This should result in gradual drying over the state, with trade showers becoming lighter and less active. The upper trough is forecast to weaken and move eastward beginning Wednesday through the later part of the week. Trade winds are expected to weaken as the northeast Pacific high shifts further away, and a weak cold front moves by far to the north. The models agree in showing a transition to gentle east-southeast breezes, and a sea and land breeze pattern over the islands by the end of the week into the weekend.

Here’s a wind profile of the Pacific Ocean – Closer view of the islands / Here’s the vog forecast animation / Here’s the latest weather map

Marine environment details: The latest surface analysis showed a large area of high pressure  centered over the eastern Pacific, with an associated ridge extending west-southwest to the north of the islands. Satellite passes show a large area of strong trade winds upstream of the state and across the local waters. The latest model guidance indicates no significant changes through mid-week. High pressure is forecast to weaken through the second half of the week, as a cold front passes well north of the state. As a result, strong trade winds across local waters will continue through Tuesday night,before trending down through the second half of the week. A small craft advisory for most waters extending eastward from Oahu remains in effect through Tuesday.

Surf along east facing shores will remain at advisory levels and rough through Tuesday, before gradually lowering Wednesday through Friday. This is in response to the persistent strong trade winds locally…and over a large area well upstream of the state.

Surf along the north facing shores will remain small with no new significant swells expected through Wednesday. Mainly trade wind swell wrap at select spots will be the only source supporting surf. A small northwest swell is expected today along north and west facing shores. Later in the upcoming weekend, a similar swell is expected to arrive

A small south swell is expected to arrive Tuesday, due to recent activity across the southern Pacific, which will support a slight increase in surf along south facing shores through Wednesday. Another south swell is forecast for this coming weekend, from former Tropical Cyclone Donna in the southern hemisphere.

For the long range, a more active pattern is forecast to setup across the southern Pacific, south and southeast of New Zealand…which will likely correspond to a more active pattern in surf along our south facing shores through the last several days of the month. Guidance supports a storm force low developing in this area Thursday through Saturday, then becoming reinforced Sunday through next Tuesday. If this pattern materializes as projected this coming weekend, a decent sized south swell would become likely across the local area the following weekend.

 

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Well established trade wind weather pattern through Thursday



San Francisco Bay Weather Brief:
A weak weather system is moving through the area today, which will maintain unseasonably cool temperatures, breezy conditions and a slight chance of showers. High pressure then builds in through the remainder of the week, with temperatures rebounding back to above normal values late in the week into the upcoming weekend.

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http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/wfo/mtr/vis.jpg
Partly to mostly cloudy


World-wide tropical cyclone activity


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>>> Atlantic Ocean: The 2017 hurricane season begins June 1st

>>> Caribbean: The 2017 hurricane season begins June 1st

>>> Gulf of Mexico: The 2017 hurricane season begins June 1st

Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Eastern Pacific: No active tropical cyclones

Here’s the NOAA 2016 Hurricane Season Summary for the Eastern Pacific Basin

Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>>
Central Pacific
: The 2017 hurricane season begins June 1st

Here’s the NOAA 2016 Hurricane Season Summary for the Central Pacific Basin

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

>>> Northwest Pacific Ocean: No active tropical cyclones

>>> South Pacific Ocean:

>>>
North and South Indian Oceans / Arabian Sea:
No active tropical cyclones


Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)



Interesting:
Research finds spike in dust storms in American Southwest driven by ocean changes
– People living in the American Southwest have experienced a dramatic increase in windblown dust storms in the last two decades, likely driven by large-scale changes in sea surface temperature in the Pacific Ocean drying the region’s soil, according to new NOAA-led research.

With the increase in dust storms, scientists have also documented a spike in Valley fever, an infectious disease caught by inhaling a soil-dwelling fungus found primarily in the Southwest.

“We’ve known for some time that the Southwest U.S. is becoming drier,” said lead author Daniel Tong, a scientist at NOAA’s Air Resources Laboratory and George Mason University. “Dust storms in the region have more than doubled between the 1990s and the 2000s. And we see that Valley fever is increasing in the same region.”

The new research, appearing today in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, shows that the average of 20 dust storms per year in the 1990s jumped to 48 per year in the 2000s in the Southwest.

Scientists look to ocean for answers

“When we saw this dramatic increase in dust storms and the drying of soils, we started looking to the ocean for answers,” said Julian Wang, a NOAA climate scientist and co-author. “Changes in the ocean occur over longer periods of times than we typically see in the atmosphere.”

Researchers found there was a combination of warmer sea surface temperatures in the North Pacific during the 2000s than during the 1990s, along with colder waters off the California coast. This allowed for cooler and drier northerly winds from the North Pacific into the southwestern U.S., helping to dry the soil.

The wind pattern also blocked warmer, moister winds from the tropical Pacific. This contributed to increased dust storms in every season except summer, when plant cover and soil moisture increases.

The new research is the first to be based on a long-term data record NOAA is developing to track the history of dust storms in the United States.

“Over time, analyzing the data will help us better predict dust storm patterns and answer the question of whether increased dust storms are a natural variation or could precipitate a larger shift in the area to desert,” said Tong.

Better prediction of dust storms can help the agriculture, aviation and transportation industries, as well as healthcare. Dust storms not only carry the fungus that can cause Valley fever, but also can severely damage aircraft engines, disrupt land transportation and erode and damage farms already hit by drought.