Air Temperatures – The following high temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Tuesday…along with the low temperatures Tuesday:

83 – 75  Lihue, Kauai
85 – 72  Honolulu, Oahu
85 – 66  Molokai
88 – 71  Kahului AP, Maui
84 – 71  Kona Int’l AP
85 – 65  Hilo AP, Hawaii

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands as of Tuesday evening:

0.10  Mount Waialeale, Kauai
0.32  Poamoho RG 1, Oahu
 0.12  Molokai
0.00  Lanai
 0.01  Kahoolawe
0.29  West Wailuaiki, Maui
0.08  Kahua Ranch, Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph) as of Tuesday evening:

13  Waimea Heights, Kauai
16  Bellows, Oahu
27  Molokai
 22  Lanai
39  Kahoolawe
24   Kahului AP, Maui
29  South Point, Big Island

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live webcam on the summit of our tallest mountain Mauna Kea (nearly 13,800 feet high) on the Big Island of Hawaii. This webcam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands, and at night whenever there’s a big moon shining down. Also, at night you will be able to see the stars — and the sunrise and sunset too — depending upon weather conditions.


Aloha Paragraphs

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A cold front northwest of the islands…will approach Hawaii Friday

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A rather mild mannered weather pattern of Hawaii…at the moment

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Clear to partly cloudy…with some localized cloudy areas

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Showers locally – Looping radar image

Small Craft Advisory…locally strong east-southeast winds for the Pailolo Channel, and around the Big Island waters

~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~

 

Moderate trade winds will prevail through Wednesday, as a surface high pressure ridge holds north of the state. The atmosphere will remain stable, with pockets of moisture affecting windward slopes. Trades will soften and shift to the southeast Thursday, as a late season cold front approaches the state, leading to spotty afternoon showers. As we reach Friday, the front will bring showers to Kauai and possibly Oahu, while prefrontal showers, some heavy…develop across the rest of the island chain. Wet and unstable conditions are expected over portions of the state through the weekend, as a low pressure system forms just north of the islands.

The current relatively mild weather pattern will change little through Wednesday, with windward coasts and slopes experiencing modest rainfall. Easterly trade winds will hold at moderate strength, while a mid-level ridge maintains stable conditions over the island chain. The next pocket of low level moisture will move slowly westward to Kauai overnight…and likely clear the islands later in the day Wednesday. By Thursday and Thursday night, trade winds will shift to the southeast as an approaching front gets closer.

The favored models are showing another area of enhanced low level moisture, moving over the state from the east during this time. Expect an increase in shower activity, including over leeward areas during the afternoon…as sea breezes develop. A few showers may become heavy Thursday, as the approaching upper level trough destabilizes the atmosphere. The front is expected to reach Kauai Friday afternoon. The models are showing a fairly shallow front, with rainfall focused across north facing slopes of Kauai…as northerly winds increase along and in the wake of the front.

The more active area of rainfall could end up being spotty heavy showers, within the low level moisture already pooled over the islands. The rather strong upper level trough will be centered over the state, and the inversion will likely be absent. This in turn will lead to developing instability, and combined with afternoon sea breezes, hit and miss heavy showers aren’t out of the question…with the modest chances for localized thunder and lightning.

Unstable weather with the potential for heavy, possibly flooding rainfall is expected over portions of the state this weekend. The models are showing a potent, late season cut off low developing north of the islands Saturday, then dropping southward over the state Sunday. The models go on to suggest that a convergence band will set up along the old front…becoming the focus for heavy, possibly flooding, rainfall. The central islands may be the best bet for a bull’s eye hit in association with this potential heavy rain event.

Here’s a wind profile of the Pacific Ocean – Closer view of the islands / Here’s the vog forecast animation / Here’s the latest weather map

Marine environment details: A high pressure ridge is nearly stationary north of the state, which is maintaining moderate trade winds over the coastal waters. The highest wind speeds have been over the normally windy areas near Upolu Point and South Point on the Big Island, and are strong enough keep a Small Craft Advisory (SCA) active for those areas. Models are in good agreement in keeping the ridge in place through Wednesday. A late season cold front is expected to erode the ridge as it approaches the state from the northwest Wednesday night and into Thursday. The front is forecast to stall over the central islands, with relatively cool north winds causing SCA level seas across the western coastal waters Friday night and Saturday.

In terms of surf, a small northwest swell currently affecting the state, is forecast to be reinforced by another northwesterly pulse later today. This will be followed by a moderate north-northwest swell arriving late Friday into Saturday.

South facing shores should see small surf through mid-week. However, a new swell should arrive from the south-southwest Thursday, with surf possibly reaching High Surf Advisory criteria. This south shore surf episode is expected to persist into the weekend.

Small surf along east facing shores will hold steady into Wednesday, before dropping off Thursday and Friday…as the local winds become lighter.

 

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Southern California weather summary: Gusty northerly winds will continue through Friday for portions of Southwest California. High pressure aloft will gradually build into the region through early next week. This combined with an offshore flow, will support the warmest conditions this weekend… with cooling likely early next week as winds shift onshore.

 

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No storms near Southern California

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Warming weather with variable clouds



World-wide tropical cyclone activity


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>>> Atlantic Ocean: The 2017 hurricane season begins June 1st

>>> Caribbean: The 2017 hurricane season begins June 1st

>>> Gulf of Mexico: The 2017 hurricane season begins June 1st

Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Eastern Pacific: The 2017 hurricane season begins May 15th

Here’s the NOAA 2016 Hurricane Season Summary for the Eastern Pacific Basin

Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Central Pacific: The 2017 hurricane season begins June 1st

Here’s the NOAA 2016 Hurricane Season Summary for the Central Pacific Basin

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

>>> Northwest Pacific Ocean:

Tropical Cyclone 03W (Muifa) remains active in the northwest Pacific, here’s the graphical track map, a satellite image, and what the computer models are showing

>>> South Pacific Ocean: No active tropical cyclones

>>> North and South Indian Oceans / Arabian Sea: No active tropical cyclones


Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)


Interesting: Global Warming Making Oceans More Toxic, Research Shows – One oceanic consequence of climate change is well underway, and it’s likely already having a negative impact on human health, according to a new study led by a professor at Stony Brook’s School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences (SoMAS).

This study demonstrates that the global warming that has already occurred is now impacting human health and our oceans,” Professor Christopher Gobler said. “An important implication of the study is that carbon emission and climate change-related policy decisions made today are likely to have important consequences for the fate of our future oceans, including the spread and intensification of toxic algal blooms.”

The study shows that since 1982 our oceans have warmed to become more hospitable for toxic algal blooms, the rapid increase of algae within a body of water, to spread and intensify. This means bad news for seafood eaters and ocean dwellers alike.

Algae types such as Alexandrium and Dinophysis, which were both subjects of the study, generate toxins that can cause neurological and gastrointestinal effects, including paralytic and diarrhetic shellfish poisoning in humans.

“Toxic or harmful algal blooms are not a new phenomenon, although many people may know them by other names such as red tides,” Gobler said. “These events can sicken or kill people who consume toxin-contaminated shellfish and can damage marine ecosystems by killing fish and other marine life.”

In the wake of climate change, harmful toxic algae events like these show no sign of slowing, according to the study.

“The distribution, frequency and intensity of these events have increased across the globe, and this study links this expansion to ocean warming in some regions of the North Atlantic and North Pacific Oceans,” Gobler said.

Gobler’s team’s study is one of the first to successfully link the recent intensification of toxic algal blooms directly to ocean warming and climate change through critical, quantitative evidence. The team achieved this by bringing together biologists and climate scientists who used ecosystem observations, laboratory experiments and 35 years of satellite-based temperature estimates to reach their conclusion.

“Today collaborating with scientists outside of your discipline is almost a requirement to solve the tough questions,” said Owen Doherty, climate modeler and study co-author.  “This study showed the value of interdisciplinary collaboration through a novel combination of laboratory, observational and modeling work.”

The study, titled Ocean warming since 1982 has expanded the niche of toxic algal blooms in the North Atlantic and North Pacific Oceans,” is now published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.