Air Temperatures – The following high temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Sunday…along with the low temperatures Sunday

81 73  Lihue, Kauai
86 – 74  Honolulu, Oahu
8373  Molokai
88
67  Kahului AP, Maui
83 71  Kona Int’l AP
8367  Hilo AP, Hawaii

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands as of Sunday evening:

0.04  Mount Waialeale, Kauai
0.01  Makua Portable, Oahu
0.00  Molokai
0.00  L
anai
0.00  Kahoolawe
0.06  Hana AP, Maui
0.04  Hilo AP, Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph) as of Sunday evening:

22  Port Allen, Kauai
32  Kuaokala, Oahu
33  Molokai
35  Lanai

45  Kahoolawe

39  Kahului AP, Maui

33  South Point, Big Island

Hawaii’s MountainsHere’s a link to the live webcam on the summit of our tallest mountain Mauna Kea (nearly 13,800 feet high) on the Big Island of Hawaii. This webcam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands, and at night whenever there’s a big moon shining down. Also, at night you will be able to see the stars — and the sunrise and sunset too — depending upon weather conditions.


Aloha Paragraphs

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Pacific storm track far north

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/cpac/vis.jpg
Weak cold front well north…high cirrus clouds moving through the state

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Clear to partly cloudy…cloudier beneath high cirrus

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A few showers locally…mostly windward –
Looping radar image


Small Craft Advisory
…most coasts and channels

High Surf Advisory…north and west shore of Kauai, Oahu and Molokai, north shore of Maui, and west shore of the Big Island

 

~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~

 

Broad brush overview: A ridge of high pressure northeast of the islands, will keep trade winds blowing through next weekend. A dry and stable airmass will keep showers limited, and confined primarily to windward slopes into mid-week. An increase in trade wind showers is then expected through next weekend…as an upper level trough of low pressure sets up over the island chain.

Details: A moderately strong high pressure system northeast will move east, which becomes nearly stationary Monday…well northeast of the islands. A surface ridge extending west from the high’s center, will remain north of the islands through the week. This will keep breezy trade winds blowing over the islands. A ridge aloft will remain over the Hawaiian islands through the first half of the new week, keeping our weather relatively dry.

A trough of low pressure aloft will move eastward to the north of the islands Monday. The surface high moving away to the east, and the trough aloft passing by to the north, will combine to weaken the trade winds through the day. The trade winds will strengthen again Tuesday…although the trades won’t get as breezy as they have been today.

Looking ahead: Models are in agreement showing a deep trough of low pressure aloft, and an associated cold front will approach the islands from the northwest later in the week. The atmosphere will become more moist and less stable, as this low pressure trough gets closer. Showers will likely become more active, especially along the windward coasts and slopes towards Thursday and Friday…into next weekend.

Here’s a wind profile of the Pacific Ocean – Closer view of the islands / Here’s the vog forecast animation / Here’s the latest weather map

Marine environment details: Hazardous boating and beach conditions will continue into Monday, before trending down into mid week, due to a combination of strong trade winds…and a large west-northwest swell. These conditions have led to a Small Craft Advisory for all Hawaiian waters, due to winds (25 to 30 knots, strongest in the channels) and large seas through Monday. This large  swell will generate life threatening surf along exposed north and west facing shores into Monday.

Surf along east facing shores will remain small and choppy through the upcoming week…due to moderate to strong onshore winds persisting.

Surf along south facing shores could see a slight increase later today, due to the WNW swell wrapping around the islands. A slight increase in surf along south facing shores will also become a possibility Thursday through Saturday, due to a south-southwest swell associated with recent activity across the southern Pacific.

Another large WNW swell will be possible across the islands Thursday night through next weekend. The latest models show a large batch of gale-to-storm force westerly winds focused toward our area through this time. Swell across the islands associated with this storm will likely lead to another period of warning level surf and advisory-level seas.

 

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Large surf along the north and west shores into Monday


Southern California Weather Summary: Despite increasing clouds, there were a few degrees of warming Sunday. A weak trough of low pressure Monday may bring a few light showers over San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara Counties, as well as the north slopes. Gusty north winds will begin Monday night and persist into Tuesday. Weak high pressure ridging aloft will bring warm and dry conditions for the middle of this new week. Wednesday should be the warmest day of the next seven. Cooler onshore winds should develop Thursday, giving way to warm temperatures Friday…into next weekend.

 

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Variable clouds

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/wfo/lox/cvis.jpg
Clear to partly cloudy…with some cloudy areas – Looping radar



World-wide tropical cyclone activity


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>>> Atlantic Ocean: The 2017 hurricane season begins June 1st

Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean

>>> Caribbean: The 2017 hurricane season begins June 1st

>>> Gulf of Mexico: The 2017 hurricane season begins June 1st

Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Eastern Pacific: The 2017 hurricane season begins May 15th

Here’s the NOAA 2016 Hurricane Season Summary for the Eastern Pacific Basin

Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>>
Central Pacific
: The 2017 hurricane season begins June 1st

Here’s the NOAA 2016 Hurricane Season Summary for the Central Pacific Basin

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

>>> Northwest Pacific Ocean: No active tropical cyclones

>>> South Pacific Ocean:


>>>
North and South Indian Oceans / Arabian Sea:


Tropical Cyclone 12S (Caleb)


JTWC textual forecast

JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite Image

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)


Interesting: 
Extreme space weather: protecting our critical infrastructure
– Extreme space weather has a global footprint and the potential to damage critical infrastructure on the ground and in space. A new JRC report calls for bridging knowledge gaps and for better coordination at EU level to reduce the potential impact of space weather events.

The sun shapes the space environment around the Earth. This so-called space weather can affect space assets but also critical infrastructure on the ground, potentially causing service disruptions or infrastructure failures. Numerous space weather events affecting the power grid, aviation, communication, and navigation systems have already been documented.

The impact of severe space weather can cross national borders, which means that a crisis in one country can affect the infrastructure in the neighboring countries. This raises concerns due to the increasing reliance of society on the services that these infrastructures provide.

New report identifies knowledge gaps

The JRC has investigated the impacts of space weather on critical infrastructure in the EU. A new report identifies the gaps in reducing risks linked to space weather and makes recommendations for policy, industry and science on how to close these gaps.

The report summarizes the results of a summit organized in partnership with the Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency and the UK Met Office, with the support of the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in November 2016. Representatives from European infrastructure operators, insurance, academia, ESA, and European and US government agencies attended the event.

Interdependencies and crisis response

The potential failure of critical infrastructures during extreme space weather can lead to cascading effects impacting other sectors.

New methodologies and tools, as well as a multi-risk governance approach are needed to assess these interdependencies and to enable the coordination of the many different actors that often manage risks in isolation from one other.

A pan-European vulnerability assessment of the power grid should be carried out to identify critical issues and transboundary effects in case of extreme space weather. Infrastructure operators should also assess whether their systems could be indirectly vulnerable to space weather, for instance due to dependencies on timing and positioning information provided by the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS).

Better communication between science and industry is also needed to provide relevant and reliable information to operators for decision making.

Space weather forecasting

Early warning and preparedness are essential for limiting the effects of space-weather impacts.

In Europe and the USA, 24/7 space-weather forecasting capabilities are available to support the early warning of government and industry. However, it is important that the consistency of forecasts from different service providers are ensured.

There is a need to enhance forecasting capabilities for regional or local forecasts on the severity and duration of extreme space weather to ensure appropriate response from local operators.

Currently, geomagnetic storm forecasting is hampered by the limited understanding of the magnetic field orientation of Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) before they hit the Earth, and there are still significant knowledge gaps in physical and impact modelling, which affect the early-warning capabilities and preparedness in industry.

The role of the EU

In the EU, the European Program on Critical Infrastructure Protection provides a policy background for critical infrastructure protection, while the EU disaster risk management policy covers prevention, preparedness and response for all types of disasters.

The Union Civil Protection Mechanism requires EU Member States to prepare a national risk assessment and list the priority risks they are facing. Six countries have included space weather in their risk assessment.

The participants of the summit indicated that there is a need for for improving coordination between the different space weather actors and recommended the establishment of a strategic European decision-making capability to coordinate space-weather risk mitigation and response at pan-European level.

They also advised that the roles and responsibilities of the key players in Europe should be better defined and suggested that coordinated strategic investments for improving the scientific know-how in this area could be explored.

Background

Different types of solar activity can impact the operations of critical infrastructures: Solar flares trigger radio blackouts and affect radar, ground- and space-based communications, as well as the GPS network. Solar radiation storms are a threat to satellite operations, aviation and space flights. Geomagnetic storms, caused by the ejection of magnetized solar plasma which interacts with Earth’s magnetosphere, affect satellite, GPS, aviation, rail transport and power-grid operations.