Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Tuesday along with the low temperatures Tuesday:
81 – 74 Lihue, Kauai
79 – 70 Honolulu, Oahu
78 – 72 Molokai AP
80 – 71 Kahului AP, Maui
81 – 70 Kailua Kona
79 – 67 Hilo AP, Hawaii
Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (in inches) for each of the islands as of Tuesday evening:
0.40 Mount Waialeale, Kauai
0.51 Manoa Lyon Arboretum, Oahu
0.78 Molokai
0.00 Lanai
0.00 Kahoolawe
2.65 Puu Kukui, Maui
1.51 Saddle Quarry, Big Island
The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph) as of Tuesday evening:
30 Lihue, Kauai
48 Oahu Forest NWR, Oahu
32 Molokai
40 Lanai
37 Kahoolawe
46 Kaupo Gap, Maui
38 Puu Mali, Big Island
Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live webcam on the summit of our tallest mountain Mauna Kea (nearly 13,800 feet high) on the Big Island of Hawaii. This webcam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands, and at night whenever there’s a big moon shining down. Also, at night you will be able to see the stars — and the sunrise and sunset too — depending upon weather conditions.
Aloha Paragraphs
Windward showers increasing…with more widespread inclement weather on the way
No lack of clouds locally, with thunderstorms far south and east of Hawaii
Clouds gathering over and around the islands
Showers locally…some are generous – Looping radar image
Small Craft Advisory…all coasts and channels (20-25 knots)
Gale Warning…Pailolo and Alenuihaha Channels (34-47 knots)
Wind Advisory…windiest areas in Maui County and the Big Island (20-35 mph gusts to 50+)
High Surf Advisory…east facing shores of Kauai, Oahu, Molokai, Maui and the Big Island
~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~
Winds increasing, remaining stronger than normal into Thursday…followed by lighter winds Friday into the weekend. Here’s the latest weather map, showing high pressure systems generally north of Hawaii. The current windy weather episode will bring 50+ mph wind gusts to some areas of the island chain. As a result we have Small Craft Advisories posted over all coastal and channel waters across the state. In addition, there’s an unusual Gale Warning over the Pailolo and Alenuihaha Channels. Finally, the windiest areas over Maui County and the Big Island have a Wind Advisory active now as well. The trades are forecast to remain blustery over the islands today through Thursday…then weakening significantly Friday into the weekend.
Here’s a wind profile of the offshore waters around the islands – and a closer look
Here’s the Hawaiian Islands Sulfate Aerosol animated graphic, showing vog forecast
Windward showers will fall locally, with a marked increase on the horizon statewide. Rainfall will occur generally over windward sides, although the leeward sides may get into the game as well. As we move into tonight and Wednesday, an area of moisture is forecast to move over the state for several days, arriving first over the eastern islands. As the robust trade winds will be blowing, the bulk of these showers will impact the windward sides, although not exclusively. These showers may become quite heavy…thanks to the arrival of an upper level trough of low pressure at about the same time. Looking further ahead, we will very likely find a second period of wet weather arriving during the weekend. More specifically, an upper level low pressure system will be located west of Kauai Sunday afternoon. This would bring abundant moisture from the deep tropics over the state, and the potential for excessive rains and flooding from Saturday into early next week.
Marine environment details: Due to locally strong trade winds and elevated seas, a Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is in effect for all coastal waters. In addition, a Gale Warning has been issued for the Alenuihaha and Pailolo channels starting later this morning. The Gale Warning is currently in effect through Wednesday afternoon, while the SCA remains in effect through Wednesday night for all remaining Hawaiian Waters. In the longer term, a significant weakening of wind speeds will occur by the weekend, since a surface trough low pressure will develop in the vicinity of the islands. However, confidence remains low regarding the details of this feature, and its exact impact on island weather at this time.
The strong trade winds will continue to keep elevated waves moving toward the islands from the east through mid-week. As a result, a High Surf Advisory remains in effect at least through Thursday afternoon for east facing shores of the islands.
A low with hurricane force winds is currently moving rapidly toward the east-northeast across the northwest Pacific, and the associated fetch will likely send a significant northwest swell toward the islands later this week. This swell is expected to spread across the island chain Thursday, before peaking Friday. As a result, a High Surf Advisory will likely be required along most north and west facing shores Thursday night and Friday.
A small south-southwest swell is producing a modest boost in surf heights along south facing shores today, but it is expected to gradually diminish Wednesday and Thursday.
Windy…inclement weather conditions up ahead
World-wide tropical cyclone activity…
>>> Atlantic Ocean: No active tropical cyclones
Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean
>>> Caribbean: No active tropical cyclones
>>> Gulf of Mexico: No active tropical cyclones
Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico
Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)
>>> Eastern Pacific: No active tropical cyclones
Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.
Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)
>>> Central Pacific: No active tropical cyclones
Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)
>>> North and South Indian Oceans / Arabian Sea:
Tropical Cyclone 04B is active in the Bay of Bengal, here, the JTWC graphical track map, with a satellite image of the storm…and what the computer models are showing
Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
Interesting: West Antarctic ice shelf breaking up from the inside out – A key glacier in Antarctica is breaking apart from the inside out, suggesting that the ocean is weakening ice on the edges of the continent.
The Pine Island Glacier, part of the ice shelf that bounds the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, is one of two glaciers that researchers believe are most likely to undergo rapid retreat, bringing more ice from the interior of the ice sheet to the ocean, where its melting would flood coastlines around the world.
A nearly 225-square-mile iceberg broke off from the glacier in 2015, but it wasn’t until Ohio State University researchers were testing some new image-processing software that they noticed something strange in satellite images taken before the event.
In the images, they saw evidence that a rift formed at the very base of the ice shelf nearly 20 miles inland in 2013. The rift propagated upward over two years, until it broke through the ice surface and set the iceberg adrift over 12 days in late July and early August 2015.
“It’s generally accepted that it’s no longer a question of whether the West Antarctic Ice Sheet will melt, it’s a question of when,” said study leader Ian Howat, associate professor of earth sciences at Ohio State. “This kind of rifting behavior provides another mechanism for rapid retreat of these glaciers, adding to the probability that we may see significant collapse of West Antarctica in our lifetimes.”
While this is the first time researchers have witnessed a deep subsurface rift opening within Antarctic ice, they have seen similar breakups in the Greenland Ice Sheet—in spots where ocean water has seeped inland along the bedrock and begun to melt the ice from underneath.
Howat said the satellite images provide the first strong evidence that these large Antarctic ice shelves respond to changes at their ocean edge in a similar way as observed in Greenland.
“Rifts usually form at the margins of an ice shelf, where the ice is thin and subject to shearing that rips it apart,” he explained. “However, this latest event in the Pine Island Glacier was due to a rift that originated from the center of the ice shelf and propagated out to the margins. This implies that something weakened the center of the ice shelf, with the most likely explanation being a crevasse melted out at the bedrock level by a warming ocean.”
Another clue: The rift opened in the bottom of a “valley” in the ice shelf where the ice had thinned compared to the surrounding ice shelf.
The valley is likely a sign of something researchers have long suspected: Because the bottom of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet lies below sea level, ocean water can intrude far inland and remain unseen. New valleys forming on the surface would be one outward sign that ice was melting away far below.
The origin of the rift in the Pine Island Glacier would have gone unseen, too, except that the Landsat 8 images Howat and his team were analyzing happened to be taken when the sun was low in the sky. Long shadows cast across the ice drew the team’s attention to the valley that had formed there.
“The really troubling thing is that there are many of these valleys further up-glacier,” Howat added. “If they are actually sites of weakness that are prone to rifting, we could potentially see more accelerated ice loss in Antarctica.”
More than half of the world’s fresh water is frozen in Antarctica. The Pine Island Glacier and its nearby twin, the Thwaites Glacier, sit at the outer edge of one of the most active ice streams on the continent. Like corks in a bottle, they block the ice flow and keep nearly 10 percent of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet from draining into the sea.
Studies have suggested that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is particularly unstable, and could collapse within the next 100 years. The collapse would lead to a sea-level rise of nearly 10 feet, which would engulf major U.S. cities such as New York and Miami and displace 150 million people living on coasts worldwide.
“We need to understand exactly how these valleys and rifts form, and what they mean for ice shelf stability,” Howat said. “We’re limited in what information we can get from space, so this will mean targeting air and field campaigns to collect more detailed observations. The U.S. and the U.K. are partnering on a large field science program targeted at that area of Antarctica, so this will provide another piece to the puzzle.”
Cris T Says:
Dear Glenn,
Thanks for all you do and for providing such a great weather forecast website for Hawaii.
My husband and I are arriving on Maui this Thursday for 10 days. We plan to go kayaking in south Maui and snorkeling in Lanai. Based on the weather forecast, do you have a suggestion of when it will be a good time for these activities?
Mahalo!
Cris T
~~~ Hi Cris, you’re very welcome, glad to provide weather information for those that are interested.
As for as your question is concerned, I don’t see too much trouble for kayaking and snorkeling along the leeward sides of Lanai or Maui. I’d wait until the weekend into early next week, as the strong trade winds will be way lighter then.
The one issue with the winds will be that they are forecast to be southerly, which can bring some rough and choppy conditions to the leeward beaches…although they aren’t expected to be too strong.
In terms of surf along the south shores of these Maui County islands, we should see some south to southeast swell arriving, thanks to the winds coming out of those directions. This could bring less than perfect visibility of course.
The one problem, besides the expected rain, would be runoff from the islands, helping to greatly diminish visibilities in some locations.
Early next week looks like generally better weather conditions. Best of luck!
Aloha, Glenn
woody adamz Says:
Hi Glen,…..Soooo, Drought means Dead Trees and ,Dead Trees mean Drought. Any projected outcome over the next few years…? I realize that California will be a potential tinderbox especially with the arsonist nut jobs that will “facilitate” things…..As I see it, WE (Humans) are The Next Extinction….and, our Mass Karma is being realized and, it honestly looks like whatever we’re doing will not stop this process…..What insight “musings” run thru your circuitry/grey matter…?? Wishin u a Gr8 day…..Alohas
P.S. The mass loss of Ohia Trees here in Puna is scary because of multiple causes (Bugs, Mold, pollution, climate change)…and also, our proximity to the equator as hotter temps expand and could bring what looks like what the Philippines experience..What about that aspect?
~~~ Hi Woody, thanks for your latest comment…interesting reading.
As for what’s going through my mind in regards to those questions you posed? Well, the truth is that I concentrate and specialize in day to day weather, stretching out to a week or so in most cases.
I leave the long range outlook to other scientists in the climate change field. I would only be guessing if I was to speculate about the distant future.
So, I’ll just stick to my relatively short term outlooks, as I don’t always even get them correct!
Aloha, Glenn