Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Friday…along with the low temperatures Friday:

87 – 75  Lihue, Kauai
87 – 74  Honolulu, Oahu
86 – 74  Molokai AP
88 – 72  Kahului AP, Maui
88 – 75  Kona AP
84 – 67 
Hilo AP, Hawaii

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands…Friday evening:

0.30  Mount Waialeale, Kauai
1.03  Poamoho RG 1,
Oahu
0.96  Molokai
0.06  Lanai
0.00  Kahoolawe
0.68  Haiku, Maui
1.64  Puho CS, Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph)…Friday evening:

23  Port Allen, Kauai
40  Oahu Forest NWR, Oahu
24  Molokai
27  Lanai

28  Kahoolawe
35  Maalaea Bay, Maui
33  Kealakomo, Big Island

Hawaii’s MountainsHere’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 13,800 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. This web cam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon shining down during the night at times. Plus, during the nights you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise and sunset too…depending upon weather conditions.


Aloha Paragraphs

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A tropical disturbance is located southeast of the islands, moving slowly northwest…with an early season storm and cold front far to the north

 

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Tropical disturbances southwest and southeast of the state

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Scattered low clouds arriving on the trades…tropical disturbances coming into view lower left and right

 

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Showers locally…some are quite generous
Looping radar image

 

~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~

 

Moderately strong trade winds…gradually becoming a bit lighter after the weekend. Here’s the latest weather map, showing a moderately strong, near 1031 millibar high pressure system far to our northeast, the source of our local trades. Winds will eventually become light enough to allow for local daytime sea breezes and nighttime land breezes…well into the new week ahead. As the winds become lighter, we’ll find sultry conditions taking over.

A low pressure system is forecast to move near the islands soon. This will result in the atmosphere becoming less stable, prompting showers to become more active. Meanwhile, models continue to suggest that an area of moisture associated with a weak surface low, presently located to the southeast of the state, will likely spread north. This tropical moisture is expected to reach the state with time. The increase in moisture, along with the low pressure in the area…will likely result in off and on heavy shower activity for much of next week. This is the kind of situation that can spawn thunderstorms, which often lead to localized flooding issues.

Here’s a wind profile…of the offshore waters around the islands – with a closer view

Here’s the Hawaiian Islands Sulfate Aerosol animated graphic – showing vog forecast

Marine environment details: Winds will remain robust enough today for the continuation of the Small Craft Advisory for the coastal channels around Maui and the Big Island as well as Maalaea Bay. Still expect winds to ease enough by tonight leading to the discontinuation of the advisory. As winds are expected to stay on the lighter side throughout the weekend into next week…no small craft advisory level winds are anticipated.

There will be a series of small to medium size south swells through the rest of this week and onto the middle of next week. An early season northwest swell is forecast to gradually fill in late Monday, peak on Tuesday with below advisory surf heights expected for north and west facing shores…then lower slowly on Wednesday.

 

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Some weather changes on the horizon


World-wide tropical cyclone activity..

 

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>>> Atlantic Ocean: No active tropical cyclones

1.) A broad area of low pressure is located a little more than 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. Although the shower activity associated with the system has not become any better organized since yesterday, conditions are favorable for a tropical depression to form by early next week while this disturbance moves toward the west-northwest and then toward the northwest over the central Atlantic during the next several days.

This disturbance is being called Invest 94L, here’s a satellite image and what the computer models are showing

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent

Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean

>>> Caribbean: No active tropical cyclones

1.) An area of cloudiness and thunderstorms located north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola remains disorganized. Environmental conditions are not expected to be conducive for significant development of this system while it moves generally west-northwestward at around 15 mph.

This disturbance is being called Invest 93L, here’s a satellite image and what the computer models are showing

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent

>> Gulf of Mexico: No active tropical cyclones

1.) Satellite and radar data indicate that the weak area of low pressure located over the extreme southeastern Gulf of Mexico is producing limited shower activity. Upper-level winds are not favorable for development, and the low is forecast to weaken while it moves westward at 5 to 10 mph.

This disturbance is being called Invest 92L, here’s a satellite image and what the computer models are showing

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent

Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Eastern Pacific: No active tropical cyclones

1.) Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure area located about 800 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula are gradually becoming better organized. Environmental conditions are conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is expected to form during the next day or two while the low moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.

Here’s a satellite image of what is being referred to as Invest 92E…and what the computer models are showing

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent

Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>>
Central Pacific
: No active tropical cyclones

1.) Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue to develop around a weak surface low located about 600 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii. Environmental conditions support some gradual development of this system during the next couple of days as it moves slowly to the northwest.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 10 percent

2.) A weak surface low is located about 800 miles south-southwest of Honolulu, Hawaii. Showers and thunderstorms continue to develop near the low and have increased in coverage. Environmental conditions support some gradual organization over the next couple of days as it moves slowly toward the west.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

>>> Northwest Pacific Ocean:

Tropical Storm 16W (Meranti)
remains active, located approximately 380 NM north-northwest of Ulithi. Here’s the JTWC graphical track map, a satellite image…and what the computer models are showing

>>>
South Pacific Ocean:
No active tropical cyclones


>>>
North and South Indian Oceans / Arabian Sea:
No active tropical cyclones

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)


Interesting:
Scientists expect to calculate amount of fuel inside Earth by 2025 Earth requires fuel to drive plate tectonics, volcanoes and its magnetic field. Like a hybrid car, Earth taps two sources of energy to run its engine: primordial energy from assembling the planet and nuclear energy from the heat produced during natural radioactive decay. Scientists have developed numerous models to predict how much fuel remains inside Earth to drive its engines — and estimates vary widely — but the true amount remains unknown.

In a new paper, a team of geologists and neutrino physicists boldly claims it will be able to determine by 2025 how much nuclear fuel and radioactive power remain in the Earth’s tank. The study, authored by scientists from the University of Maryland, Charles University in Prague and the Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences, was published on September 9, 2016, in the journal Nature Scientific Reports.

“I am one of those scientists who has created a compositional model of the Earth and predicted the amount of fuel inside Earth today,” said one of the study’s authors William McDonough, a professor of geology at the University of Maryland. “We’re in a field of guesses. At this point in my career, I don’t care if I’m right or wrong, I just want to know the answer.”

To calculate the amount of fuel inside Earth by 2025, the researchers will rely on detecting some of the tiniest subatomic particles known to science — geoneutrinos. These antineutrino particles are byproducts of nuclear reactions within stars (including our sun), supernovae, black holes and human-made nuclear reactors. They also result from radioactive decay processes deep within the Earth.

Detecting antineutrinos requires a huge detector the size of a small office building, housed about a mile underground to shield it from cosmic rays that could yield false positive results. Inside the detector, scientists detect antineutrinos when they crash into a hydrogen atom. The collision produces two characteristic light flashes that unequivocally announce the event. The number of events scientists detect relates directly to the number of atoms of uranium and thorium inside the Earth. And the decay of these elements, along with potassium, fuels the vast majority of the heat in the Earth’s interior.

To date, detecting antineutrinos has been painfully slow, with scientists recording only about 16 events per year from the underground detectors KamLAND in Japan and Borexino in Italy. However, researchers predict that three new detectors expected to come online by 2022–the SNO+ detector in Canada and the Jinping and JUNO detectors in China–will add 520 more events per year to the data stream.

“Once we collect three years of antineutrino data from all five detectors, we are confident that we will have developed an accurate fuel gauge for the Earth and be able to calculate the amount of remaining fuel inside Earth,” said McDonough.

The new Jinping detector, which will be buried under the slopes of the Himalayas, will be four times bigger than existing detectors. The underground JUNO detector near the coast of southern China will be 20 times bigger than existing detectors.

“Knowing exactly how much radioactive power there is in the Earth will tell us about Earth’s consumption rate in the past and its future fuel budget,” said McDonough. “By showing how fast the planet has cooled down since its birth, we can estimate how long this fuel will last.”