Hawaiian Islands Weather Details & Aloha Paragraphs / September 30 – October 1, 2016

Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Friday along with the low temperatures Friday:

87 – 75  Lihue, Kauai
86 – 74  Honolulu, Oahu
86 – 75  Molokai AP
90 – 74  Kahului AP, Maui – record high Friday was 93
88 – 75  Kailua Kona
85 – 71  Hilo AP, Hawaii

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (in inches) for each of the islands as of Friday evening:

1.25  Mount Waialeale, Kauai
0.31  Nuuanu Upper, Oahu
0.13  Molokai
0.00  Lanai
0.00  Kahoolawe
0.79  West Wailuaiki, Maui
0.67  Saddle Quarry, Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph) as of Friday evening:

22  Poipu, Kauai
42  Oahu Forest NWR, Oahu
28  Molokai
27  Lanai
32  Kahoolawe
36  Maalaea Bay, Maui
32  Puu Mali, Big Island

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live webcam on the summit of our tallest mountain Mauna Kea (nearly 13,800 feet high) on the Big Island of Hawaii. This webcam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands, and at night whenever there’s a big moon shining down. Also, at night you will be able to see the stars — and the sunrise and sunset too — depending upon weather conditions.

Aloha Paragraphs

Post-Tropical Cyclone Ulika is running out of steam east of the islands

Post-Tropical Cyclone Ulika is 500+ miles east of the islands

Close-up view of what’s left of Ulika

Looping satellite images of retired Ulika, with upper level wind shear continuing to take its toll on this weakening system

Variable clouds, with the northern edge of high cirrus over parts of the state, along with an area of low clouds and showers passing through the islands tonight

 

Showers mostly windward and offshore…increasing first over the eastern islands – Looping radar image

Small Craft Advisory…Maalaea Bay, Maui, Pailolo and Alenuihaha Channels, Big Island leeward and southeast waters

~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~

 

The trade winds will remain moderately strong through the weekend. Here’s the latest weather map, showing high pressure systems well to our north-northeast, the source of our trade wind flow at the moment. At the same time, former tropical cyclone Ulika is east of the islands, moving westward. Our trade winds will hold on through the weekend, and then weaken slightly as they veer to the east or even southeast early in the new week ahead. If the air flow gets all the way around to the southeast, our atmosphere may begin to feel rather sultry, and there may even be some volcanic haze (vog) moving up over some of the smaller islands.

Here’s a wind profile of the offshore waters around the islands – with a closer view

Here’s the Hawaiian Islands Sulfate Aerosol animated graphic, showing vog forecast

Rainy weather is on the horizon, some of which will be locally heavy, with the outside chance of thunderstorms with time. This will be partially associated with what is now retired tropical cyclone Ulika. This area is currently located about 500+ miles east of the Big Island, with the remnant moisture steadily moving in our direction. Meanwhile, there will be shower-enhancing troughs of low pressure over our area this weekend as well. This combination of weather features will bring us off-and-on passing showers, some of which will be downpours leading to flooding issues. In sum, a wetter than normal pattern, with showers favoring the windward and mountain areas, although with rain reaching the leeward sides at times too. This may turn into a prolonged period of inclement, early autumn weather, stay tuned.

Marine environment details: High pressure far to the north-northeast of the state will keep trade winds in place through the weekend. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the typically windier waters around Maui and the Big Island, and will likely need to be extended through the rest of the weekend.

Easterly swell resulting from the trade winds will continue through this forecast period. A modest rise in surf heights is expected for east facing shores, as the remnants of former TC Ulika approach from the east. Surf heights will remain small through the middle of next week. Models show a strong low near the Aleutian Islands during the middle of next week, that could bring our first significant northwest swell of the winter season next weekend.

Friday Evening Film: My friend Jeff and several other friends of ours, went to see one of the new films that’s showing in Kahului, Maui. This film is called Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children. It stars Samuel L. Jackson, Eva Green, Judi Dench, Rupert Everett, Terence Stamp, Kim Dickens, Asa Butterfield, Ella Purnell…among many others. The synopsis: from visionary director Tim Burton, and based upon the best-selling novel, comes an unforgettable motion picture experience. When Jake discovers clues to a mystery that spans different worlds and times, he finds a magical place known as Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children. But the mystery and danger deepen as he gets to know the residents and learns about their special powers…and their powerful enemies. Ultimately, Jake discovers that only his own special “peculiarity” can save his new friends.  

As it turned out, I really liked this film, even though I was a little concerned that I wouldn’t ahead of time. There were five of us that saw the film, with a rather wide range in likes and dislikes among us. There was an A grade, I gave it an A-, Jeff’s grade came in somewhere between a B+ and A-, and then a couple of lower grades. The film is a long one, running over two hours, although I liked every minute of it personally. I particularly enjoyed the sound track and the visual special effects, which were outstanding. It was a far fetched piece of work, no doubt about it. I was very happy to have seen this unusual film, full of a range of up and down emotions. If you’re interested, here’s the trailer to get an inside peek.

 

 

Increasing clouds and showers, mostly windward and mountains although not exclusively, some will be rather generous

World-wide tropical cyclone activity…

>>> Atlantic Ocean: No active tropical cyclones

1.) A broad area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms and winds to near tropical storm force over the central tropical Atlantic several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles. Development, if any, of this system is expected to be slow to occur due to strong upper- level winds while the low moves northwestward at 15 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent

Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean

>>> Caribbean: 

Hurricane 14L (Matthew) is a dangerous category 4 major hurricane! Located approximately 390 miles southeast of Kingston, Jamaica. Here’s the NHC graphical track map, a satellite image, and what the computer models are showing

>>> Gulf of Mexico: No active tropical cyclones

Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Eastern Pacific: No active tropical cyclones

1.) A weak area of low pressure located several hundred miles south- southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing a few showers and thunderstorms. This system is moving west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph toward cooler waters, and development is not expected.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…near 0 percent

Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Central Pacific: No active tropical cyclones

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)