Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Tuesday along with the low temperatures Tuesday:
86 – 77 Lihue, Kauai
85 – 75 Honolulu, Oahu
85 – 76 Molokai AP
88 – 75 Kahului AP, Maui
87 – 74 Kona AP
82 – 72 Hilo AP, Hawaii
Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (in inches) for each of the islands as of Tuesday evening:
0.16 Kilohana, Kauai
0.12 Manoa Lyon Arboretum, Oahu
0.07 Molokai
0.00 Lanai
0.00 Kahoolawe
0.61 Puu Kukui, Maui
0.37 Piihonua, Big Island
The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph) as of Tuesday evening:
21 Port Allen, Kauai
32 Kuaokala, Oahu
27 Molokai
27 Lanai
35 Kahoolawe
36 Maalaea Bay, Maui
30 Pali 2, Big Island
Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live webcam on the summit of our tallest mountain Mauna Kea (nearly 13,800 feet high) on the Big Island of Hawaii. This webcam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands, and at night whenever there’s a big moon shining down. Also, at night you will be able to see the stars — and the sunrise and sunset too — depending upon weather conditions.
Aloha Paragraphs
Tropical Storm Ulika is spinning well east-southeast of the islands, with Tropical Storm Roslyn churning the waters offshore from Mexico
Tropical Storm Ulika is still over 1100 miles east-southeast from the islands
A projection would take whatever is left of Ulika, not far south of the Big Island
Close up view of TS Ulika
Looping satellite images of TS Ulika
What the computer models are showing for TS Ulika, which won’t bring wind to Hawaii, although could bring showers eventually
Clear to partly cloudy, locally cloudy
A few showers, mostly windward – Looping radar image
Small Craft Advisory…Maalaea Bay, Maui, Pailolo and Alenuihaha Channels, Big Island leeward and southeast waters
~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~
The trade winds will remain more or less moderately strong through the week. Here’s the latest weather map, showing a near 1034 millibar high pressure system well to our north, the source of our trade wind flow. At the same time, we see the tail end of that early season cold front, not far to the north of Kauai. As we get into the weekend time frame, our trades will veer to the east-southeast or even southeast. This will result is lighter winds, which may carry volcanic haze (vog) over the smaller islands then, although shouldn’t last long.
Here’s a wind profile of the offshore waters around the islands – with a closer view
Here’s the Hawaiian Islands Sulfate Aerosol animated graphic, showing vog forecast
A fairly typical trade wind weather pattern will remain over the islands through the remainder of the work week. Some of the computer models are suggesting a weather change occurring during the weekend into early next week, resulting in an increase in showers. This may be partially associated with what will very likely be retired tropical cyclone 19E (Ulika), currently located 1145 miles east-southeast of the Big Island, as it moves slowly closer to the islands with time.
Marine environment details: A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) will continue for the windy areas around the Big Island and Maui today, as the locally strong trades prevail. Winds may ease slightly on Wednesday, though they will probably be strong enough to remain at the SCA level. The SCA may need to be extended further as the winds are expected to firm up a little toward the weekend. Surf will remain well below the advisory levels on all shores for the next several days.
Some windward showers, otherwise a nice work week is expected
World-wide tropical cyclone activity…
>>> Atlantic Ocean:
Tropical Storm 14L (Matthew) is now ctive, located approximately 35 miles southeast of St. Lucia. Here’s the NHC graphical track map, a satellite image, and what the computer models are showing
Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean
>>> Caribbean: No active tropical cyclones
>>> Gulf of Mexico: No active tropical cyclones
1.) Disorganized showers and thunderstorms along the coast of the western Gulf of Mexico are associated with a weak low pressure area near Tampico, Mexico. This low is forecast to move inland later today or tonight and significant development of this system is not expected.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent
Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico
Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)
>>> Eastern Pacific:
Tropical Depression 18E (Roslyn) remains active, located approximately 365 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Here’s the NHC graphical track map, a satellite image, and what the computer models are showing
Tropical Storm 19E (Ulika) remains active, located approximately 1140 miles east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii.. Here’s the NHC graphical track map, a satellite image, and what the computer models are showing
1.) An area of disturbed weather a few hundred miles south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, is associated with a weak trough of low pressure. Some gradual development of this system is possible through early next week while it moves west-northwestward and then westward away from the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent
Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.
Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)
>>> Central Pacific: No active tropical cyclones
Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)
Tropical Depression 21W (Chaba) remains active, located approximately 32 NM north-northeast of Andersen AFB, Guam. Here’s the JTWC graphical track map, a satellite image, and what the computer models are showing
>>> South Pacific Ocean: No active tropical cyclones
>>> North and South Indian Oceans / Arabian Sea: No active tropical cyclones
Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
Interesting: Earth ‘Locked Into’ Hitting Temperatures Not Seen in 2 Million Years: Study – Earth is the warmest it’s been in 100,000 years, a new reconstruction of historical temperature data finds, and with today’s level of fossil fuel emissions the planet is “locked into” eventually hitting its highest temperature mark in 2 million years.
The new research published Monday in Nature was done by Carolyn Snyder, now a climate policy official at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, as a part of her doctoral dissertation at Stanford University, according to the Associated Press.
Snyder “created a continuous 2 million year temperature record, much longer than a previous 22,000 year record. [Snyder’s reconstruction] doesn’t estimate temperature for a single year, but averages 5,000-year time periods going back a couple million years,” AP writes.
“We do find this close relationship between temperature and greenhouse gases that is remarkably stable, and what the study is developing is the coupling factor between the two,” Snyder told National Geographic.
AP further reports:
Temperatures averaged out over the most recent 5,000 years—which includes the last 125 years or so of industrial emissions of heat-trapping gases—are generally warmer than they have been since about 120,000 years ago or so, Snyder found. And two interglacial time periods, the one 120,000 years ago and another just about 2 million years ago, were the warmest Snyder tracked. They were about 3.6 degrees (2 degrees Celsius) warmer than the current 5,000-year average.
With the link to carbon dioxide levels and taking into account other factors and past trends, Snyder calculated how much warming can be expected in the future.
“Snyder said if climate factors are the same as in the past—and that’s a big if,” AP notes, “Earth is already committed to another 7 degrees or so (about 4 degrees Celsius) of warming over the next few thousand years.”
Nature described Snyder’s findings in greater detail in an article accompanying her published study: “Even if the amount of atmospheric CO2 were to stabilize at current levels, the study suggests that average temperatures may increase by roughly 5° C over the next few millennia as a result of the effects of the greenhouse gas on glaciers, ecosystems and other factors. A doubling of the pre-industrial levels of atmospheric CO2 of roughly 280 parts per million, which could occur within decades unless people curb greenhouse-gas emissions, could eventually boost global average temperatures by around 9° C.”
“This is not an exact prediction or a forecast,” Snyder told Nature, advising caution regarding her study’s temperature predictions. “The experiment we as humans are doing is very different than what we saw in the past.”
There has been some controversy in the scientific community following publication of Snyder’s research: several climate scientists told National Geographic that they felt Snyder’s estimate of future temperature rise, far higher than many previous estimates, was an outlier, signalling that her methods were faulty.
Michael Mann, an influential climate researcher at Penn State University who was not involved in Snyder’s research, told Mashable that “I regard the study as provocative and interesting, but the quantitative findings must be viewed rather skeptically until the analysis has been thoroughly vetted by the scientific community.”
Other scientists said they were intrigued by Snyder’s findings and hope her study leads to additional research. Jeremy Shakun, a climate researcher at Boston College, told AP that “Snyder’s work is a great contribution and future work should build on it.”
“It’s a useful starting place,” Snyder said to Nature about her research. “People can take this and improve upon it as more records become available in the future.”
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