Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Sunday along with the low temperatures Sunday:
87 – 78 Lihue, Kauai
86 – 74 Honolulu, Oahu
87 – 75 Molokai AP
88 – 69 Kahului AP, Maui
89 – 72 Kona AP
85 – 69 Hilo AP, Hawaii
Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (in inches) for each of the islands as of Sunday evening:
0.56 Mount Waialeale, Kauai
0.09 Punaluu Stream, Oahu
0.01 Molokai
0.00 Lanai
0.00 Kahoolawe
0.13 West Wailuaiki, Maui
0.51 Saddle Quarry, Big Island
The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph) as of Sunday evening:
32 Port Allen, Kauai
31 Oahu Forest NWR, Oahu
25 Molokai
35 Lanai
33 Kahoolawe
36 Maalaea Bay, Maui
35 Waikoloa, Big Island
Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live webcam on the summit of our tallest mountain Mauna Kea (nearly 13,800 feet high) on the Big Island of Hawaii. This webcam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands, and at night whenever there’s a big moon shining down. Also, at night you will be able to see the stars — and the sunrise and sunset too — depending upon weather conditions.
Aloha Paragraphs
An early season cold front is breaking apart to our north
Thunderstorms in the deeper tropics southwest, along with that dissipating cold front north
Clear to partly cloudy, with minor high Cirrus clouds are located to the southwest, meanwhile we see an area of showers approaching the state to the east
Showers, mostly windward areas – Looping radar image
Small Craft Advisory…Maalaea Bay, Maui, Pailolo and Alenuihaha Channels, Big Island leeward and southeast waters
~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~
The trade winds will gradually strengthen into Monday, and will remain moderate to strong during the upcoming week. The trades will begin to increase now, as a cold front to our north weakens and dissipates into Monday. Here’s the latest weather map, showing high pressure systems well to our northeast and northwest, the source regions of our trade wind flow. There will be the common day-to-day variations in speed and direction, although these early autumn trades aren’t expected to falter any time soon.
Here’s a wind profile of the offshore waters around the islands – with a closer view
Here’s the Hawaiian Islands Sulfate Aerosol animated graphic, showing vog forecast
We’ll find an increase in windward showers into Monday. A trough of low pressure will edge closer to the island chain tonight, bringing this brief increase in moisture. This will result in a more active shower pattern across some parts of the islands. A drier and stable air mass will then build over the region through the remainder of the week. Down the road towards the weekend, some of the models are suggesting moisture arriving from the east and southeast. This could bring some showers, along with a day or two with volcanic haze (vog) over the smaller islands.
Marine environment details: A high pressure cell building to the distant northwest of the islands is bringing an increase in trade wind speeds. With winds expected to increase further, a Small Craft Advisory (SCA) was issued for the typically windy marine zones around the Big Island and Maui. This SCA is posted through Tuesday night, although it may need to remain in place through much of the new week.
Surf will be small, especially by Hawaii standards, through the next week. A series of mainly small pulses of south-southwest swell will continue to bring small surf to south facing shores. A very small northwest swell is already diminishing, and this swell will fade today. A north-northwest swell is expected Monday and Tuesday, although the resulting surf along north and west facing shores will be small. Increasing trade winds will lead to gradually increasing wind swell waves, which will drive moderate surf along windward shores.
Saturday Evening Film: I’m going to see a new film called The Magnificent Seven, as I’ve always been a sucker for westerns. This film stars seven men, which let’s hope are magnificent in what they do. As this is an action and adventure film, filled with drama, I would imagine that what these guys do is shoot other guys…lots of them! The film stars Peter Saresgaard, Vincent D’Onofrio, Ethan Hawke, Chris Pratt, Lee Byung-hun, Denzel Washington, Cam Gigandet, Luke Grimes, and yes, even a woman whose name is Haley Bennett. The synopsis: With the town of Rose Creek under the deadly control of industrialist Bartholomew Bogue, the desperate townspeople, led by Emma Cullen, employ protection from seven outlaws, bounty hunters, gamblers and hired guns – Sam Chisolm, Josh Farraday, Goodnight Robicheaux, Jack Horne, Billy Rocks, Vasquez, and Red Harvest. As they prepare the town for the violent showdown that they know is coming, these seven mercenaries find themselves fighting for more than money.
I saw this film with my friend Jeff. It was rather predictable, although entertaining none-the-less. The main thing, as I mentioned above, was men shooting each other with hand guns and rifles. It wasn’t just a few times, but pretty much from beginning to the end. As one critic noted, “If body count is what you go to Westerns for, by all means drift into this one’s corral.” They must have shot their guns a million times, it was almost, and I am exaggerating here…a constant barrage. Jeff gave it a strong B grade, I upped the ante to B+ myself. Thereafter, we drove over to Kihei and did some dancing at a couple of dive bars. He and I went to a party in Haiku last night as well, and I ended up dancing lots there too. Two nights of dancing in a row, was a special treat! Here’s the rough and tumble trailer for The Magnificent 7.
Generally nice weather, with windward showers tonight into Monday
World-wide tropical cyclone activity…
>>> Atlantic Ocean: No active tropical cyclones
1.) Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure pressure located about 1100 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands continue to show signs of organization. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form around mid-week while the low moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph. Interests in the eastern and central Caribbean Sea, including the northern coast of South America, should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of development, heavy rains and strong gusty winds should spread over the Windward Islands and portions of the southern Lesser Antilles beginning late Tuesday or Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent
This area of disturbed weather is being referred to as Invest 97L, here’s a satellite image…and what the computer models are showing
2.) Shower activity increased overnight in association with the remnants of Lisa. Although earlier scatterometer data indicated winds to tropical storm force, the system’s circulation was somewhat elongated. Unfavorable environmental conditions are expected to cause the circulation to open up into a trough of low pressure later today without the possibility of regeneration into a tropical cyclone.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…near 0 percent
Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean
>>> Caribbean: No active tropical cyclones
>>> Gulf of Mexico: No active tropical cyclones
Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico
Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)
>>> Eastern Pacific:
Tropical Depression 18E (Roslyn) remains active, located approximately 740 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Here’s the NHC graphical track map, a satellite image, and what the computer models are showing
1.) Recent satellite wind data indicate that the low pressure system located about 1200 miles east-southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii has become better defined. Shower and thunderstorm activity has also increased and become better organized overnight, and if recent development trends continue, a tropical depression is likely to form later today. This system is forecast to move little during the next day or so, then turn northward later in the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high 70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent
This area of disturbed weather is being referred to as Invest 96E, here’s a satellite image…and what the computer models are showing
Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.
Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)
>>> Central Pacific: No active tropical cyclones
Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)
Typhoon 20W (Megi) remains active, located approximately 288 NM southeast of Taipei, Taiwan. Here’s the JTWC graphical track map, a satellite image…and what the computer models are showing
>>> South Pacific Ocean: No active tropical cyclones
>>> North and South Indian Oceans / Arabian Sea: No active tropical cyclones
Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
Interesting: A Cruise Ship Just Sailed the Northwest Passage, Thanks to Climate Change – The Northwest Passage originated as an unattainable and lethal legend when Europeans arrived in the Americas and longed for an easy sea route across North America. Now, a cruise ship has successfully traversed the route in only a month.
It wasn’t until 1906 that Norwegian explorer Roald Amundsen successfully — but with extreme difficulty — navigated what had, until then, been a theoretical journey. In the years since, heavily fortified ships with icebreakers could only make it through the floes of the Arctic in summer, when sea ice was at its lowest.
Now, a massive 14-deck cruise ship has completed the journey that was a pipe dream just over one hundred years ago — and it’s raising a lot of concerns.
It took the Crystal Serenity just a month to glide through the waters from Alaska to New York — Amundsen needed three years.
What made this speedy voyage possible?
Climate change.
Rising temperatures have contributed to radical shrinkage of Arctic ice in a disturbingly short period of time. Researcher Peter Wadham, who has spent decades in the Arctic, predicts that the region will be free of ice by the middle of the century, which means that cruises like this one could become a lot more common.
“Extinction tourism” may be popular, but it comes at a high cost — and with a bitter legacy.
Arctic nations and indigenous people in the area have expressed concern about an increase in visitors.
Nunavut is already weighing restrictions on cruise ships and considering the impacts of maritime tourism. They’re proposing limits on the number of people allowed ashore to reduce the strain on resources for highly isolated communities — especially since cruise ships only visit during a brief period of the year and cannot be considered a reliable source of income.
Canadian officials are also concerned about what the opening of the passage will mean for maritime sovereignty, as nations like China are eager to exploit the newly-navigable waters of the North.
But this comes with more than just political and social implications. There’s a larger question at hand as we turn climate change into a tourist attraction.
The disappearance of sea ice is an indicator that climate change is progressing at a rate that’s too rapid to stop. This won’t just mean rising sea levels caused by melting ice — it could also speed up the warming of the climate.
Ice is more reflective than water and, thus, bounces radiation off the Earth’s surface rather than absorbing it. The ice also acts like a giant cooler, chilling the air as it passes over and contributing climate control to Arctic nations.
The firm is already planning another cruise for 2017, even though some of the attractions it was hoping to showcase aren’t readily available. Polar bears, for instance, have nowhere to go in a landscape of dwindling ice.
While wealthy cruisers pay upwards of $100,000 for the privilege of watching the world fall apart around them, local communities stand to hurt the most — and they’re likely to ultimately join the growing ranks of climate refugees.
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