Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Tuesday…along with the low temperatures Tuesday:
86 – 76 Lihue, Kauai
85 – 73 Honolulu, Oahu
84 – 74 Molokai AP
87 – 73 Kahului AP, Maui
88 – 75 Kona AP
82 – 70 Hilo AP, Hawaii
Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (in inches) for each of the islands…Tuesday evening:
0.59 Mount Waialeale, Kauai
1.08 Manoa Lyon Arboretum, Oahu
0.44 Molokai
0.00 Lanai
0.00 Kahoolawe
0.55 West Wailuaiki, Maui
0.51 Kawainui Stream, Big Island
The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph)…Tuesday evening:
31 Port Allen, Kauai
29 Kuaokala, Oahu
28 Molokai
32 Lanai
33 Kahoolawe
33 Maalaea Bay, Big Island
32 Pali 2, Big Island
Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 13,800 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. This web cam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon shining down during the night at times. Plus, during the nights you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise and sunset too…depending upon weather conditions.
Aloha Paragraphs
Normal trade wind weather…over this last day or so of very late summer
No lack of clouds in our vicinity of the central Pacific…with a weak tropical disturbance well southeast of the Big Island
Clear to partly cloudy…with cloudy areas locally windward sections
Showers locally – Looping radar image
Small Craft Advisory…Maalaea Bay, Pailolo and Alenuihaha Channels
~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~
Moderately strong trades…easing up some going forward. Here’s the latest weather map, showing a moderately strong high pressure system to our north. At the same time, we have low pressure troughs west and east of the state. We can expect moderately strong trade winds, most blustery during the late mornings through early evenings…calming down some at night into the morning hours. These common trade winds will begin to ease up a touch mid-week into the weekend.
Here’s a wind profile…of the offshore waters around the islands – with a closer view
Here’s the Hawaiian Islands Sulfate Aerosol animated graphic – showing vog forecast
Low clouds with embedded showers carried by the winds, will affect the area at times…mainly windward and mountain locations. A few showers will also reach over into the leeward sections on the smaller islands…carried by the gusty trade winds. Speaking of showers, we’ll see an increase late Thursday into the weekend. This increase will be associated with the remnants of former tropical cyclone Orlene, along with other clouds pulled up from the deeper tropics. Our humidity levels will go up again then as well…leading to another round of sultry weather conditions for our islands.
Marine environment details: A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect for the typically windy waters around the Big Island and Maui County, due to locally strong easterly trade winds. Expect the winds to ease up some going forward.
The moderate trades will maintain an easterly swell through the week. South facing shores will see mainly small swells with a possible increase in swell energy through Wednesday.
Pleasant conditions as we head towards the beginning of Autumn – Thursday, September 22nd…with some changes thereafter
World-wide tropical cyclone activity…
>>> Atlantic Ocean:
Tropical Depression 12L (Karl) remains active, located approximately 365 miles northeast of the Leeward Islands. Here’s the NHC graphical track map, a satellite image…and what the computer models are showing
Tropical Storm 13L (Lisa) remains active, located approximately 580 west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Here’s the NHC graphical track map, a satellite image…and what the computer models show
Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean
>>> Caribbean: No active tropical cyclones
>>> Gulf of Mexico: No active tropical cyclones
Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico
Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)
>>> Eastern Pacific: No active tropical cyclones
1.) A broad area of low pressure located about 700 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, is producing a large area of disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development during the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form later this week or this weekend. This system is forecast to move westward to west- northwestward at around 10 mph for the next couple of days and then turn northward by the weekend.
Here’s a satellite image of this area, being referred to as Invest 94E…along with what the computer models are showing
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent
1.) A weak area of low pressure located about 1350 miles east-southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii continues to produce disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Any development of this system should be slow to occur while it moves slowly westward during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent
Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.
Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)
>>> Central Pacific: No active tropical cyclones
Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)
>>> South Pacific Ocean: No active tropical cyclones
>>> North and South Indian Oceans / Arabian Sea: No active tropical cyclones
Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
Interesting: Heatwaves in the ocean: Risk to ecosystems? – An unusually long-lasting warm water bubble — nicknamed ‘The Blob’ — spread across the surface of the Northeast Pacific from winter 2013/2014 to the end of 2015. The warm water bubble at times measured up to 1,600 kilometres in diameter and had water temperatures of more than 3 degrees Celsius above the long-term average. Because warm surface water has a lower density than the cold deep water, the exchange of nutrient-rich deep water with warm surface water was reduced, especially along the west coast of North America. This had far-reaching consequences for marine organisms and ecosystems: the growth of phytoplankton decreased due to the reduced supply of nutrients, and some zooplankton and fish species migrated from the warm and nutrient-poor water to cooler regions. By contrast, researchers found pygmy killer whales in the North Pacific for much longer than usual: this tropical whale species is usually observed 2,500 kilometres further south.
And on the west coast of Australia
A stronger but shorter heatwave hit Australia’s west coast at the turn of the year 2010/2011, with sea temperatures of up to 6 degrees Celsius above normal levels for that time of year. The seabed along the coast of Western Australia is known for its high concentration of brown algae. These marine ‘kelp forests’ have similar functions as terrestrial forests: they provide habitat and food resource to numerous species; in particular a large number of fish. Australian researchers demonstrated that most of the kelp forest stocks rapidly disappeared during this heatwave. In total, an area of 1,000 square kilometres of kelp forest was lost — this corresponds to twice the size of Lake Constance. Today, algae stocks haven’t recovered yet. Instead, a new ecosystem with tropical fish and seaweeds has developed.
Risks for marine ecosystems?
We have known for some time that extreme weather and climate events on land, such as heatwaves, shape the structure of biological systems and affect their biogeochemical functions and the services they provide for society in a fundamental manner. It is also known that heatwaves affect a number of biological systems, including humans, more strongly than slower changes in the average temperature. This has to do with the fact that such extreme events push organisms and ecosystems to their limits of their resilience and beyond, potentially causing dramatic and irreversible changes.
The two extreme events in the North Pacific and along the west coast of Australia detailed us for the first time that marine heatwaves can also lead to a number of unprecedented ecological and socioeconomic consequences. For example, it revealed that a large number of fish moved to colder northern waters. Escaping to cooler ocean depths is often not an option because deeper depths lack sunlight, oxygen and plants for food. This may ultimately lead to losses for both the fishing and tourism sectors.
Looking ahead
As the world’s oceans continue to warm, marine heatwaves are likely to become more frequent and intense. Observations and model simulations also demonstrate that other factors such as ocean acidification and deoxygenation are putting additional stress on marine organisms and ecosystems.
Until recently, climate models were unable to accurately represent the relevant physical and biogeochemical processes to simulate extreme events in the ocean and predict future changes. The uncertainties in future projections, particularly at the regional scale, were simply too large. New model simulations linking the global carbon and oxygen cycle with high-resolution physical processes now enable us to make quantitative predictions about the frequency, strength and spatial distribution of future extreme events in the ocean for the first time. And this is precisely what my scientific research focuses on. But in order to better understand the impact of these extreme events on individual organisms or entire ecosystems and their socioeconomic services, interdisciplinary collaborations are urgently needed. Research on understanding such events is only just beginning.
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