Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Monday…along with the low temperatures Monday:
85 – 78 Lihue, Kauai
84 – 73 Honolulu, Oahu
85 – 73 Molokai AP
88 – 73 Kahului AP, Maui
87 – 73 Kona AP
83 – 69 Hilo AP, Hawaii
Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (in inches) for each of the islands…Monday evening:
0.94 Mount Waialeale, Kauai
0.31 Manoa Lyon Arboretum, Oahu
0.14 Molokai
0.00 Lanai
0.00 Kahoolawe
0.53 West Wailuaiki, Maui
0.43 Kawainui Stream, Big Island
The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph)…Monday evening:
30 Port Allen, Kauai
31 Oahu Forest NWR, Oahu
22 Molokai
31 Lanai
35 Kahoolawe
32 Maalaea Bay, Big Island
30 Waikoloa, Big Island
Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 13,800 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. This web cam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon shining down during the night at times. Plus, during the nights you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise and sunset too…depending upon weather conditions.
Aloha Paragraphs
Normal trade wind weather…over these last few days of very late summer
No lack of clouds in our vicinity of the central Pacific
Clear to partly cloudy with cloudy areas locally, higher level cirrus clouds southwest through northwest…which should give us some nice color at sunrise
Showers…mostly windward areas – Looping radar image
Small Craft Advisory…windiest coasts and channels Maui County and the Big Island
~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~
Well-established trades…through the week. Here’s the latest weather map, showing a moderately strong high pressure system to our north. At the same time, we have low pressure troughs west, east, and south of the state. We can expect moderately strong trade winds, most blustery during the late mornings through early evenings…calming down some at night into the morning hours. As we get into the first couple of days of our autumn season, beginning Friday, the trades may downshift a gear into the weekend.
Here’s a wind profile…of the offshore waters around the islands – with a closer view
Here’s the Hawaiian Islands Sulfate Aerosol animated graphic – showing vog forecast
We’ll find a drier and increasingly stable air mass over us…keeping fine weather in place. As always though, when the trade winds are blowing, we’ll find at least some showers carried towards our windward coasts and slopes. The leeward beaches should be in good shape, with generally fine weather conditions prevailing there.
Looking ahead…we may see an increase in showers Thursday into the weekend. This increase will be loosely associated with the remnants of former tropical cyclone Orlene…which is moving westward through our central Pacific region, more or less towards Hawaii. This tropical moisture will send our humidity levels up again…leading to another round of sultry weather conditions for our islands. Meanwhile, TS Paine will stay in the eastern Pacific near Baja California, and won’t be an issue for Hawaii. Although, folks in the desert southwest will likely get some localized heavy rainfall in a couple of days.
Marine environment details: The locally strong trades will keep the Small Craft Advisory going for the typically windy waters around Maui County, and the waters south of the Big Island.
No swells from the northwest are expected, as the current northwest swell continues to trend lower. The trade winds will maintain an easterly swell through tonight, followed by a decline during the week. Surf along the south facing shores may see a small bump Tuesday and Wednesday.
Pleasant conditions as we head towards the beginning of Autumn – Thursday, September 22nd…with some changes Friday into the weekend
World-wide tropical cyclone activity…
>>> Atlantic Ocean:
Tropical Storm 12L (Karl) remains active, located approximately 530 miles east-northeast of the Leeward Islands. Here’s the NHC graphical track map, a satellite image…and what the computer models are showing
Tropical Storm 13L (Lisa) remains active, located approximately 430 west of the Cabo Verde Islands. Here’s the NHC graphical track map, a satellite image…and what the computer models show
Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean
>>> Caribbean: No active tropical cyclones
>>> Gulf of Mexico: No active tropical cyclones
Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico
Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)
>>> Eastern Pacific:
Tropical Storm 17E (Paine) remains active, located approximately 165 miles southwest of Punta Eugenia, Mexico. Here’s the NHC graphical track map, a satellite image…and what the computer models are showing
1.) A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is located about 750 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Although cloudiness and showers associated with this system are currently disorganized, environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for some gradual development during the next several days. The low is expected to move generally westward at around 10 mph for the next couple of days, and then turn northwestward and then northward later this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent
Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.
Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)
>>> Central Pacific: No active tropical cyclones
Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)
Tropical Storm 18W (Malakas) remains active…located approximately 49 NM west of Yokosuka, Japan. Here’s the JTWC graphical track map … a satellite image … and what the computer models are showing
>>> South Pacific Ocean: No active tropical cyclones
>>> North and South Indian Oceans / Arabian Sea: No active tropical cyclones
Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
Interesting: Heatwaves in the ocean: Risk to ecosystems? – An unusually long-lasting warm water bubble — nicknamed ‘The Blob’ — spread across the surface of the Northeast Pacific from winter 2013/2014 to the end of 2015. The warm water bubble at times measured up to 1,600 kilometres in diameter and had water temperatures of more than 3 degrees Celsius above the long-term average. Because warm surface water has a lower density than the cold deep water, the exchange of nutrient-rich deep water with warm surface water was reduced, especially along the west coast of North America. This had far-reaching consequences for marine organisms and ecosystems: the growth of phytoplankton decreased due to the reduced supply of nutrients, and some zooplankton and fish species migrated from the warm and nutrient-poor water to cooler regions. By contrast, researchers found pygmy killer whales in the North Pacific for much longer than usual: this tropical whale species is usually observed 2,500 kilometres further south.
And on the west coast of Australia
A stronger but shorter heatwave hit Australia’s west coast at the turn of the year 2010/2011, with sea temperatures of up to 6 degrees Celsius above normal levels for that time of year. The seabed along the coast of Western Australia is known for its high concentration of brown algae. These marine ‘kelp forests’ have similar functions as terrestrial forests: they provide habitat and food resource to numerous species; in particular a large number of fish. Australian researchers demonstrated that most of the kelp forest stocks rapidly disappeared during this heatwave. In total, an area of 1,000 square kilometres of kelp forest was lost — this corresponds to twice the size of Lake Constance. Today, algae stocks haven’t recovered yet. Instead, a new ecosystem with tropical fish and seaweeds has developed.
Risks for marine ecosystems?
We have known for some time that extreme weather and climate events on land, such as heatwaves, shape the structure of biological systems and affect their biogeochemical functions and the services they provide for society in a fundamental manner. It is also known that heatwaves affect a number of biological systems, including humans, more strongly than slower changes in the average temperature. This has to do with the fact that such extreme events push organisms and ecosystems to their limits of their resilience and beyond, potentially causing dramatic and irreversible changes.
The two extreme events in the North Pacific and along the west coast of Australia detailed us for the first time that marine heatwaves can also lead to a number of unprecedented ecological and socioeconomic consequences. For example, it revealed that a large number of fish moved to colder northern waters. Escaping to cooler ocean depths is often not an option because deeper depths lack sunlight, oxygen and plants for food. This may ultimately lead to losses for both the fishing and tourism sectors.
Looking ahead
As the world’s oceans continue to warm, marine heatwaves are likely to become more frequent and intense. Observations and model simulations also demonstrate that other factors such as ocean acidification and deoxygenation are putting additional stress on marine organisms and ecosystems.
Until recently, climate models were unable to accurately represent the relevant physical and biogeochemical processes to simulate extreme events in the ocean and predict future changes. The uncertainties in future projections, particularly at the regional scale, were simply too large. New model simulations linking the global carbon and oxygen cycle with high-resolution physical processes now enable us to make quantitative predictions about the frequency, strength and spatial distribution of future extreme events in the ocean for the first time. And this is precisely what my scientific research focuses on. But in order to better understand the impact of these extreme events on individual organisms or entire ecosystems and their socioeconomic services, interdisciplinary collaborations are urgently needed. Research on understanding such events is only just beginning.
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