Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Thursday…along with the low temperatures Thursday:

87 – 77  Lihue, Kauai
87 – 73  Honolulu, Oahu
88 – 73  Molokai AP
90 – 72  Kahului AP, Maui – record 93 Thursday…back in 1950
85 – 77  Kona AP
85 – 69  Hilo AP, Hawaii

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands…Thursday evening:

0.53  Mount Waialeale, Kauai
3.11  Manoa Lyon Arboretum, Oahu
 1.05  Molokai
0.00  Lanai
0.00  Kahoolawe
2.46  West Wailuaiki, Maui
4.32  Glenwood, Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph)…Thursday evening:

28  Moloaa Dairy, Kauai
46  Oahu Forest NWR, Oahu
27  Molokai
30  Lanai
30  Kahoolawe
36  Maalaea Bay, Maui
23  South Point, Big Island

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 13,800 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. This web cam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon shining down during the night at times. Plus, during the nights you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise and sunset too…depending upon weather conditions.


Aloha Paragraphs

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Tropical Storm Orlene remains in the eastern Pacific, this tropical cyclone won’t be a threat to Hawaii in terms of winds…meanwhile, there’s an early season cold front to our north


Close-up look at Tropical Storm Orlene…weakening again

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What the computer models are showing for Orlene…which might bring some showers our way later next week

 

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Thunderstorms in our vicinity offshore

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Clear to cloudy depending on the area…thunderstorms still evident near the islands

 

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Heavy rain…still falling locally offshore – Looping radar image



Flash Flood Watch…Oahu, Maui County and the Big Island

Small Craft Advisory…windiest coasts and channels around Maui County and the Big Island

 

~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~

 

Stronger trades now…into the weekend. Here’s the latest weather map, showing high pressure systems to our northeast, north and northwest. We can expect strengthening trade winds now into next week. As these normal late summer breezes pick up over the next few days, the muggy conditions of late will let loose of their recent hold on us. At this point, I don’t see any end to the upcoming trade winds, which will blow right on through the end of this 2016 summer season…likely right on into the first day or two of autumn.

A moist and unstable atmosphere, with abundant tropical moisture, are all the ingredients necessary…for more off and on showers. Despite the rain free conditions across most of the state Thursday, the threat of flash flooding continues…with spotty heavy shower activity possible into Friday or even Saturday. The latest forecast suggests that this area of tropical moisture will move west of the islands Sunday. Drier conditions and a more stable airmass will return then…into the middle of next week. Finally, the remnants of what is currently Tropical Storm Orlene, still in the eastern Pacific, may approach the islands around next Thursday…potentially bringing an increase in moisture over Maui County and the Big Island then.

Here’s a wind profile…of the offshore waters around the islands – with a closer view

Here’s the Hawaiian Islands Sulfate Aerosol animated graphic – showing vog forecast

Marine environment details: A moderate northwest swell will arrive Friday, peaking during the night into Saturday. Surf heights will stay below advisory levels along north and west facing shores.

Small swells arriving from the southern hemisphere will maintain small to moderate surf along south facing shores over the next few days. 

High pressure to the northeast has begun to build to the southwest, increasing the trade winds across the area. Therefore, a small craft advisory (SCA) will be in effect for the traditionally windy waters around Maui County and the Big Island. This SCA may need to be expanded to cover additional waters this weekend.

Our airmass remains moist and unstable with the possibility of thunderstorms and heavy showers, which will lead to marine hazards in the form of cloud-to-surface lightning, low visibility, and locally erratic winds across Hawaiian coastal and offshore waters.

 

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Possible unsettled weather for another day or so


World-wide tropical cyclone activity…

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>>> Atlantic Ocean:

Post-Tropical Cyclone 10L (Ian) is dissipating in the north Atlantic, located approximately 795 miles east-northeast of Cape Race New Foundland. Here’s the NHC graphical track map, a satellite image…and what the computer models are showing.

Tropical Storm 11L (Julia) remains active, located approximately 240 miles southeast of Cape Fear, North Carolina. Here’s the NHC graphical track map, a satellite image…and what the computer models are showing.

Tropical Storm 12L (Karl) remains active, located approximately 700 miles west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Here’s the NHC graphical track map, a satellite image…and what the computer models are showing

1.) A tropical wave moving off of the coast of Africa into the far eastern Atlantic is expected to move west-northwestward for the next few days. Some development of this system is possible before conditions become less favorable for tropical cyclone formation by the middle of next week.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent

Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean

>>> Caribbean: No active tropical cyclones
 
>>> Gulf of Mexico: No active tropical cyclones

1.) An elongated area of low pressure over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Development of this system, if any, should be slow to occur before it moves inland over Texas by tonight.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent

Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Eastern Pacific:

Tropical Storm 16E (Orlene) is located approximately 1050 miles west of the southern tip of Baja California. Here’s the NHC graphical track map, a satellite image…and what the computer models are showing

1.) Showers and thunderstorms are showing some signs of organization in association with a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of Acapulco, Mexico. This low is expected to become a tropical depression this weekend while the low moves west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 mph, parallel to but a few hundred miles offshore of the coast of Mexico.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent

1.) An area of low pressure could form early next week several hundred miles southwest of Mexico. Some gradual development is possible by midweek while the system moves slowly west-northwestward.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent

Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Central Pacific: No active tropical cyclones

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

>>> Northwest Pacific Ocean:

Typhoon 18W (Malakas) remains active…located approximately 361 NM southwest of Kadena AB, Okinawa, Japan. Here’s the JTWC graphical track map … a satellite image … and what the computer models are showing

>>> South Pacific Ocean: No active tropical cyclones


>>> North and South Indian Oceans / Arabian Sea: No active tropical cyclones

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)


Interesting: All polar bears across the Arctic face shorter sea ice season – It’s no secret that Arctic sea ice is melting. Polar bears, the poster-child for climate change, are among the animals most affected by the seasonal and year-to-year changes in Arctic sea ice, because they rely on this surface for essential activities such as hunting, traveling and breeding.

A new University of Washington study, with funding and satellite data from NASA and other agencies, finds a trend toward earlier sea ice melt in the spring and later ice growth in the fall across all 19 polar bear populations, which can negatively impact the feeding and breeding capabilities of the bears. The paper, will appear in The Cryosphere, which is the first to quantify the sea ice changes in each polar bear sub-population across the entire Arctic region using metrics that are specifically relevant to polar bear biology.

“This study shows declining sea ice for all sub-populations of polar bears,” said co-author Harry Stern, a researcher with the UW’s Polar Science Center. “We have used the same metric across all of the polar bear sub-populations in the Arctic so we can compare and contrast, for example, the Hudson Bay region with the Baffin Bay region using the same metric.”

The analysis shows that the critical timing of the sea ice break-up and sea ice freeze-up is changing in all areas in a direction that is harmful for polar bears.

Nineteen separate polar bear populations live throughout the Arctic, spending their winters and springs roaming on sea ice and hunting. The bears have evolved mainly to eat seals, which provide necessary fats and nutrients in the harsh Arctic environment. Polar bears can’t out swim their prey, so instead they perch on the ice as a platform and ambush seals at breathing holes or break through the ice to access their dens.

“Sea ice really is their platform for life,” said co-author Kristin Laidre, a researcher at the UW’s Polar Science Center. “They are capable of existing on land for part of the year, but the sea ice is where they obtain their main prey.”

The new study draws upon 35 years of satellite data showing sea ice concentration each day in the Arctic. NASA scientists process the data, stored at the National Snow and Ice Data Center in Boulder, Colorado.

The center also reports each fall the yearly minimum low for Arctic sea ice. This August saw the fourth lowest in the satellite record.

Across all 19 polar bear populations, the researchers found that the total number of ice-covered days declined at the rate of seven to 19 days per decade between 1979 and 2014. Sea ice concentration during the summer months — an important measure because summertime is when some sub-populations are forced to fast on land — also declined in all regions, by 1 percent to 9 percent per decade.

The most striking result, researchers said, is the consistent trend across all polar bear regions for an earlier spring ice melt and a later fall freeze-up. Arctic sea ice retreats in the springtime as daylight reappears and temperatures warm. In the fall months the ice sheets build again as temperatures drop.

“These spring and fall transitions bound the period when there is good ice habitat available for bears to feed,” Laidre said. “Those periods are also tied to the breeding season when bears find mates, and when females come out of their maternity dens with very small cubs and haven’t eaten for months.”

The researchers found that on average, spring melting was three to nine days earlier per decade, and fall freeze-up was three to nine days later per decade. That corresponds to a roughly 3 ½ week shift at either end — and seven weeks of total loss of good sea ice habitat for polar bears — over the 35 years of Arctic sea ice data.

“We expect that if the trends continue, compared with today, polar bears will experience another six to seven weeks of ice-free periods by mid-century,” Stern said. The trend appears to be linear and isn’t accelerating or leveling off, Stern added. The researchers recommend that the National Climate Assessment incorporate the timing of spring ice retreat and fall ice advance as measures of climate change in future reports.

The study’s results currently are used by the International Union for Conservation of Nature’s polar bear specialist group, which completes assessments of polar bears and issues the species’ conservation status. The researchers plan to update their findings each year as new ice coverage data are available.

“It’s nice to see this work being used in high-level conservation goals,” Laidre said.