Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Wednesday…along with the low temperatures Wednesday:
87 – 76 Lihue, Kauai
85 – 73 Honolulu, Oahu
82 – 75 Molokai AP
83 – 70 Kahului AP, Maui
90 – 77 Kona AP
85 – 72 Hilo AP, Hawaii
Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands…Wednesday evening:
0.73 Wailua, Kauai
3.86 PTWC, Oahu
4.47 Molokai
1.12 Lanai
0.15 Kahoolawe
6.21 Hana AP, Maui
2.41 Kapapala RAWS, Big Island
The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph)…Wednesday evening:
29 Port Allen, Kauai
29 Oahu Forest NWR, Oahu
12 Molokai
12 Lanai
09 Kahoolawe
17 Kula 1, Maui
20 South Point, Big Island
Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 13,800 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. This web cam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon shining down during the night at times. Plus, during the nights you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise and sunset too…depending upon weather conditions.
Aloha Paragraphs
Hurricane Orlene remains in the eastern Pacific, this tropical cyclone won’t be a threat to Hawaii in terms of winds…meanwhile, there’s an early season storm far north, with a cold front draped south and southwest
Close-up look at re-intensified Hurricane Orlene
What the computer models are showing for Orlene…which might bring some showers our way next week
Thunderstorms in our vicinity
Clear to cloudy depending on the area…thunderstorms near Oahu, Maui County and the Big Island
Heavy rain with thunderstorms…over or near the islands locally – Looping radar image
Flash Flood Watch…Oahu, Maui County and the Big Island
Flood Advisory…HAWAIIAN PARADISE PARK…PAHOA…GLENWOOD…ORCHIDLANDS ESTATES… HAWAIIAN ACRES…VOLCANO…MOUNTAIN VIEW… HAWAII VOLCANOES NATIONAL PARK…LEILANI ESTATES…AINALOA… FERN ACRES AND EDEN ROC (Big Island)
Flash Flood Warning…HONOLULU…MAUNAWILI…KAILUA…WAIKANE…HAWAII KAI…SALT LAKE… KANEOHE…WAIAHOLE…MOANALUA…HALAWA…KANEOHE MARINE BASE AND WAIMANALO (Oahu)
Small Craft Advisory…WINDIEST COASTS AND CHANNELS MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND
~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~
Light winds for the most part…then stronger again later Thursday into the weekend. Here’s the latest weather map, showing high pressure systems far to our northeast, and closer to the north. Meanwhile, there’s a trough of low pressure over the islands. Winds will be light enough to allow for local daytime sea breezes and nighttime land breezes…into Thursday. As the winds remain on the lighter side of normal in most areas, and relative humidity levels remain high, muggy conditions will prevail over the state. We can expect strengthening trade winds Friday into next week.
Rainy conditions will occur over parts of the state into Friday…as tropical moisture is enhanced by a deep trough of low pressure aloft. We’ll find off and on showers, along with heavy rain at times. This combination of weather features will spawn thunderstorms, which will lead to localized flooding issues here and there again over the next day or two. At the moment, the greatest threat of heavy rain remains over the Big Island and Maui County. As we get into the weekend, and on into early next week, conditions will improve…with drier weather and a more typical trade wind pattern returning.
Here’s a wind profile…of the offshore waters around the islands – with a closer view
Here’s the Hawaiian Islands Sulfate Aerosol animated graphic – showing vog forecast
Marine environment details: A pair of moderate northwest swells are expected through this weekend. One peaked overnight and the second is expected to arrive Friday and peak Saturday. Both swells are expected to result in surf heights below advisory levels along north and west facing shores. Small swells arriving from the southern hemisphere will maintain small to moderate surf along south facing shores over the next couple of days, with largest surf expected Thursday.
While sustained winds and seas are below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) criteria, increasing trade winds are expected toward the end of the week, as high pressure to the distant northeast moves a little closer, and the surface trough currently near Maui and the Big Island dissipates. Winds may become sufficiently strong to support SCA’s for waters around Maui County and the Big Island then.
Our airmass remains moist and unstable today, and is expected to remain that way over the next couple of days. Heavy showers and thunderstorms will bring marine hazards in the form of cloud-to-surface lightning, low visibility…and locally erratic winds.
Unsettled weather for another couple of days
World-wide tropical cyclone activity…
>>> Atlantic Ocean:
Tropical Storm 10L (Ian) remains active in the central Atlantic, located approximately 880 miles east-northeast of Bermuda. Here’s the NHC graphical track map, a satellite image…and what the computer models are showing.
Tropical Depression 11L (Julia) remains active, located approximately 125 miles east-southeast of Charleston, South Carolina. Here’s the NHC graphical track map, a satellite image…and what the computer models are showing.
Tropical Depression 12L is active, located approximately 440 miles west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Here’s the NHC graphical track map, a satellite image…and what the computer models are showing
1.) A tropical wave is expected to move off of the west coast of Africa by late Friday, and then move generally west-northwestward over the far eastern Atlantic. Initially, conditions are expected to be conducive for some development of this system after it moves offshore, but these conditions are forecast to become less favorable by early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent
Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean
>>> Caribbean: No active tropical cyclones
>> Gulf of Mexico: No active tropical cyclones
1.) An area of cloudiness over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico is associated with a broad area of low pressure. Environmental conditions are not conducive for significant development of this system while it moves westward or northwestward toward the Texas coast during the next day or two.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent
Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico
Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)
>>> Eastern Pacific:
Hurricane 16E (Orlene) is located approximately 800 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Here’s the NHC graphical track map, a satellite image…and what the computer models are showing
1.) An area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, is producing some shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions are expected to gradually become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend while the low moves west-northwestward to northwestward, parallel to the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent
Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.
Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)
>>> Central Pacific: No active tropical cyclones
Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)
Typhoon 18W (Malakas) remains active…located approximately 489 NM south of Kadena AB, Okinawa, Japan. Here’s the JTWC graphical track map … a satellite image … and what the computer models are showing
>>> South Pacific Ocean: No active tropical cyclones
>>> North and South Indian Oceans / Arabian Sea: No active tropical cyclones
Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
Interesting: Air Pollution: The Billion Dollar Industry – The World Bank has released a new report highlighting the fact that air pollution costs world governments billions upon billions every year and ranks among the leading causes of death worldwide.
The estimates — drawn from a number of sources, including the World Health Organization’s most recently completed data sets compiled in 2013 — can for the first time begin to examine the overall welfare cost of air pollution.
Specifically, researches studied the amount of money that world governments must spend on health emergencies, long term illnesses and chronic conditions caused by air pollution. They also took into account missed work and unemployment subsidies.
The report finds that, in terms of the economy, the burden is extremely high.
To be sure, some countries come out of this analysis relatively well off. For example, Iceland only loses $3 million of its gross domestic product to air pollution. Given that the country has a relatively small population and a slight industrial profile, that’s probably not that surprising though.
Other countries, like Liberia, performed relatively well despite their low levels of economic development. Several African nations also have low overall air pollution impact costs. Despite mid-to-high populations, infrastructure is comparatively low density in places like Malawi and Zimbabwe, so perhaps this isn’t that surprising either.
It’s when we get to rapidly developing and “developed” nations that the costs really start to mount up. For example, the United States is estimated to lose $45 billion every year due to air pollution, while the UK loses $7.6 billion annually. Germany comes in at $18 billion, though it will be interesting to see how the country’s renewable energy strategy might alter that figure over the coming years.
China, one of the most rapidly developing nations in the world, is estimated to be losing a staggering 10 percent of its overall GDP, while India is not far behind at roughly eight percent.
Financial losses will, however, seem trivial when we look at the potential human cost of air pollution.
The World Bank estimates that global air pollution kills roughly five and a half million people every year, or to put that another way: it will kill one out of every ten people worldwide.
Air pollution is now the fourth leading cause of premature death in the world and, as the Guardian points out, it actually causes “six times the number of deaths caused by malaria,” a fact that highlights the threat of air pollution most starkly.
It should be noted, though, that this figure does not necessarily reflect the rising danger to populations living in countries currently undergoing industrial and economic development. An obvious example is China, a country with well-documented air quality problems.
The World Bank estimates that, globally, the economy loses about $225 billion due to lost work days that result from those deaths. Add in welfare costs, or the money people are forced to pay in order to seek medical attention and other means of combating an air pollution problem, and that figure rises to a staggering $5 trillion.
Now, it may seem distasteful to talk about human lives in terms of economic loss, but it’s important to remember that without this loss, more money could be spent on health care for the general population.
Thus, air pollution has a much wider impact than we might first assume. While it certainly is true that developed nations suffer a significant burden from this problem, the financial impact on low and middle income nations is a staggering 59 percent of the total global welfare losses falling on those nations.
The World Bank notes that about “90 percent of the population in low and middle income countries are exposed to dangerous levels of ambient air pollution.” Air pollution has been linked to a number of health conditions, from cancer to autism-associated behavioral issues in children.
The World Bank’s Laura Tuck, vice president for sustainable development at the organization, stated, “Air pollution is a challenge that threatens basic human welfare, damages natural and physical capital, and constrains economic growth.”
Tuck continued:
We hope this study will translate the cost of premature deaths into an economic language that resonates with policy makers so that more resources will be devoted to improving air quality. By supporting healthier cities and investments in cleaner sources of energy, we can reduce dangerous emissions, slow climate change, and most importantly save lives.
Countries like China have made significant commitments to tackle their air pollution problems by restricting city development, creating green corridors and more, but critics warn that without curbing fossil fuel use, these measures can’t tackle the heart of the problem.
A number of so-called developed nations have also been criticized for failing to take appropriate action. The UK is a prime offender, considering that London has a persistent — and largely unaddressed – air pollution problem.
This study serves to highlight that, in terms of economic burden and human health impacts, air pollution is not something we can afford to ignore.
Kaitlin Says:
Hi Glenn!
Great website! It’s very informative and I love your figures and satellite images.
I am supposed to go to Maui and Kauai in two weeks for my honeymoon. Any insight into the tropical weather forecast for then? I am starting to worry about all these tropical depressions and hurricanes in the pacific.
Thanks!
Kaitlin
~~~ Hi Kaitlin, nice to hear from you, and thanks very much for your positive feedback about my website!
Congratulations on your decision to visit Maui and Kauai, excellent choices indeed.
As for the weather on these two islands in two weeks, that would be very difficult so far in advance. With that being said however…let me hazard a guess, and say that I would expect the weather to be fine. I’m pulling for you and your new husband!
Aloha, Glenn
Robert Suviste Says:
Glenn, wow can’t believe the weather on Maui at the moment. I have been coming to the islands for over 28 years now and September used to be reliable for warm sunny weather.No one can deny that the worlds climate is changing. Seems it is now hit or miss if the weather is rainy all year round not just winter.
Robert
~~~ Hi Robert, indeed, I agree, I remember most September’s being full of late summer weather, with few interruptions. There were of course some exceptions, although this year is very different than normal.
This whole summer has been different in fact, with lots of weather arriving from the eastern Pacific, in terms of tropical cyclones going by, or even impacting the Big Island. Many of these storm had lost their winds…but brought showers to Hawaii.
It will be interesting to see how the rest of summer pans out, although there’s only about a week left before fall arrives.
Thanks for your comment Robert.
Aloha, Glenn
David Hume Says:
Hi Glenn, aloha from warm, sunny and dry Kona…No rain yet this week just a couple of very distant flashes beyond the horizon last night. In response to Mikes question about 5.5 million people…that’s every year… and if the average person lives 75 years…412 million per lifetime, that makes the numbers work.
~~~ Hi David, good to hear from you down there in Kona! Thanks for doing the figuring for us, I’ll take your word for it.
No rain, hmmmm, we just had 1.25″ in half an hour!
Aloha, Glenn
Eleanor Says:
Vog level not good here in Hilo at sea level. Have been smelling it in the air all around for the past two days. Come back, trade winds, and blow this away from us!
~~~ Hi Eleanor, good to hear from you, as usual! Voggy down your way in Hilo, that’s no fun. I know this very well, remembering the times that this volcanic haze spreads over Maui at times.
I anticipate the trade winds returning soon, hang in there until then!
Aloha, Glenn
p.s. you know, now that I look down into the central valley, from up here in Kula…I can see that we have vog here on Maui as well.
Deborah Says:
Morning!
Found your website yesterday as I searched for weather info in Kauai. What a treat. Daughter and I headed to your beautiful islands on Sunday. If I can spend one hour gazing at a view that looks like the picture you have posted, I will be a very happy woman.
Read the article and stats on pollution. Staggering. How very sad to think about our lack of stewardship of this beautiful, beautiful planet. Thank you for passing on the info.
Have a lovely day. Looking forward to five days of serenity, peace, and calm. Rain or shine.
Deb
~~~ Hi Deb, I’m very happy that you found my website, and that you found it useful.
Wonderful news that you and your Daughter are coming to visit Kauai, what a treat!
That you enjoyed the picture, and with your positive outlook on life, you are bound to greatly appreciate your visit to paradise…I wish you both very well.
I’ll try and send some dry weather your way, even though you have mentioned that you won’t mind rain either…fabulous!
Aloha, Glenn